• ATL 32 CAR 8
• PITT 16 CLE 12
• IND 27 TEN 22
• SD 31 DEN 17
• DET 22 MIN 19
• GB 23 CHI 14
• JACK 27 HOU 26
• KC 29 OAK 21
• NO 25 TAMPA 19
• NEW ENG 32 MIAMI 16
• JETS 26 BILLS 16
• EAGLES 34  COWBOYS 26
• BAL 28 CIN 17
• STL 23 SEA 22
• SF 24 ARI 18
• NYG 24 WAS 19

Here are updated ratings: I would estimate that with KG out the Celtics will play around 4 points per game worse. With Dirk out I estimate  Mavs will play a whopping 12 points worse!

After being (justly) knocked for having the Titans too high I decided to experiment with ratings that give more weight to recent games. The ratings below are based  on week 1 games getting a weight of .5, week 2 a weight of .53, etc.

Giving each game equal weight we get the following ratings.

Note giving the more recent games more weight moves the  Pats up nearly two points and the Titans down a point. When I pick the games this week I will use the weighted ratings.

Adjusted +/- ratings measure how many points better or worse than average per 48 minutes an NBA player performs after adjusting for the other 9 players on the court.  For example, a +10 rating means a player adds 10 points more than an an average player to his team’s performance Mining our Adjusted +/- data yields many interesting insights which are not obvious from PER of boxscore stats.

1. Bibby +10 and Jamaal Crawford +9 have keyed the Hawks moderate success. Despite a great PER rating Horford has not had a great impact on their usccess.
2. The Celtics great success has been a team effort. KG (+9) seems to be over his knee problems. Pierce +6, Rondo +4 ,Davis +2,  Ray Allen +2, and Robinson +1 have all chipped in.
3. Don’t blame Larry Brown’s stepping down on Wallace +10 and Augustin +10. Both are having great seasons. Blame things on Stephen Jackson’s +14 defensive rating. This means that when Jackson is in (after adjusting for other 9 guys on court) Bobcats give up 14 more points per game.
4. Derrick Rose is now a full fledged super star. He leads the league in our Impact rating (sort of adjusted +/- adjusted for importance of game situations) and has a +15 Adjusted +/-.  Korver +13 has also been great.
5. Hickson -7 and Moon -7 have hurt the Cavs.
6. Nene +7  of Denver is always an Adjusted +/- stud.
7. For the woeful Pistons Stuckey +10 has been a bright spot. But Wallace  -8 and Daye -7 have hurt them.
8. For G0lden State Wright -10 and Carney -15 have caused most of the recent slump.
9. For Houston Luis Scola has carried over his great play from the Worlds with a +12 rating. Hayes -10, Hill -7, and Brooks -7 have hurt them.
10. Blake Griffin seems (undeservedly, see below) a sure thing for ROY and is clearly the most exicting player to watch. His Adjusted +/- is only 0, however, and IU’s one and doner Eric Gordon (+6) has been the Clips best player this year.
11. Why are the Lakers having trouble? Odom +10 and Gasol +12 are playing some of their best ball ever. The problem is Kobe’s defense: his +11 defensive rating is by far his worst ever. Amazingly the Lakers best lineup is Odom Gasol with the three subs: Brown, Blake and Barnes : +76 points in around 100 minutes.
12. For Memphis Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo with +4 have been bright spots.
13. For the Heat Chris Bosh has recieved little credit but his Adjusted +/- of +12 is great. Wade (-4) needs to step it up.
14. For the Bucks Bogut +15 and Ilyasova +14 get no credit, but they are great players. Maggette -18 and Douglas-Roberts -21 really hurt them
15. For the Wolves Brewer +8 and Johnson +5 get no “Love.” But Kevin Love, despite a mediocre Adjusted +/- has an excellent impact rating  of +23 (Impact ranges from +100 to -100).
16. For the Nets Brook Lopez +13 has been great.
17. For the Hornets CP3 (+13) is back in the conversation for best point guard. Jack (-11) has yet to fit in.
18. This Amare for MVP conversation needs to stop. The Knicks MVP and ROY is Landry Fields. His Adjusted +/- of +16 and Impact of +48 are terrific. Amare has a +2 Adjusted +/-.
19. For OKC KD +16 is still great. Westbrook, however is overrated. His +5 defensive rating indicates he is not a great defender.
20. For the Magic Turkogolu has +29 Adjusted +/- so far. Certainly not reliable, but enough to indicate he has really fit in well so far.
21. For the underrated 76ers Holiday +9 and Young +8 have played great. Doug Collins deserves a  lot of credit for reducing PT for Turner -12 and Nocioni -12.
22. For the Suns Steve Nash +7 is still great.
23. For the Blazers Andre Miller +7 is still vastly underrated.
24. The”haplessness” of the hapless Kings is keyed by Cousins -11 and Landry -5.
25. The Spurs great start has been keyed by Manu +12, Hill +11, Parker +6, and Duncan +6.
26. For the Mavs Dirk +19 should be in the MVP conversation. Terry’s Impact rating of +42 is 9th in the league. But the key to the Mavs has been Tyson Chandler with a +8 Points rating, a vast upgrade over last year’s starter, Eric Dampier.
27. For the Pacers Mike Dunleavy +6 has been a bright spot but hightly touted Darren Collison -10 has been a bust
28. Amir Johnson +16 has been amazing for the Raptors.  Calderon -9, Weems -7and DeRozan -10 have really hurt the Raptors.
29. For the Jazz DWilliams +15 is running neck  and neck with CP3 for 2nd best point guard (behind Rose). Miles +5, Watson +7 and Price +8  have been great. Rookie Gordon Hayward has done poorly -23.
30. For the Wizards the injury hampered John Wall -10 has not lived up to expectations.

Hope these comments have made you see the insights that can be gleaned from an Adjusted +/- analysis.

So who was the best NBA player of the 2000-2010 decade? We will try to answer this question by using our Adjusted +/- and Impact Ratings. An Adjusted +/- of +10 points, menas that after adjusitng for the other players on the court, a  player made his team 10 points better per 48 minutes than an avergae NBA player. Impact is similar, but based on how a player changes his team’s chances of winning (sort of like WPA in baseball).

    I will not consider LeBron and Wade, because they did not play te whole decade (more on them later).

By far the 4 best players who played during the entire decade are Dirk, Kobe, Duncan and KG.  Here are their numbers:

We see that Dirk, Duncan  and KG are virtually tied.  Note that Dirk’s standard deviation is much smaller than KG’s or Duncan’s. This tells us  that Dirk’s performance thru the decade has been far more consistent than KG or Duncan, Kobe is a close 3rd. For all you Kobe lovers, do not forget that he has had great teammates during most of the decade (Shaq in his prime , and Odom, Gasol Artest at present).

This year  Dirk leads the league at +18 points (Rose leads in Impact) while KG is at +9. Despite his outstanding PER rating Kobe’s Adjusted +/- this year is -12. Odom and Gasol have keyed virtually all the LAKER’S success this season.  Duncan is at+5 I guess if you count this year we can declare Dirk the player of the decade by the slimmest of margins.

By the way LeBron has averaged +11 on points on +34 on Impact, so if you want you could call him the “Player of 2003-2010.” Wade has averaged 9 points and +27 Impact.

Here are newest ratings. Celtics and Spurs lead the pack.

Here are updated NFL ratings

Note the NFC West has 4 of the 5 worst teams. Two of the top 4 teams: Chergers and Packers, are in danger of not making playoffs. Here are this week’s picks.

• PITT 28 CAR 3
• DALL 31 ARI 24
• NE 36 BUF 24
• MIA 20 DET 18
• PHIL 29 MIN 18
• JACK 26 WAS 22
• SF 19 STL 16
• TAM 26 SEA 19
• JETS 17 BEARS 16
• BALT 20 CLEV 16
• KC 21 TENN 2O
• INDY 27 OAK 26
• HOUS 29 DENV 26
• GB 24 NYG 15
• SD 28 CIN 18
• ATL 29 NO 22

I should be done with exams and teaching at companies on Wednesday so starting late next week I should be posting more commentary on the NBA. Here are latest ratings. You can see the media (as usual) overhyped the Knicks’ resurgence. By the way the Amare for MVP talk is ludicrous (more on that next week) and Eric Gordon of the Clippers deserves much more ink than Blake Griffin. Despite their injuries the Celtics are still solidly #1 but look out for the hated Heat, epsecially when Mike Miller returns soon.

• SAN DIEGO 28 SF 14
• ARI 24 CAR 21
• CLE 22 CIN 19
• IND 28 JACK 21
• DAL 27 WAS 24
• MIA 24 BUF 15
• NE 26 GB 23
• NYG 28 PHI 25
• TEN 29 HOU 21
• PIT 20 NYJ 12
• OAK 31 DEN 21
• KC 19 STL 15
• BAL 26 NO 19
• ATL 31 SEA 18
• TAM 24 DET 21
• CHI 16 MIN 15

Here are new ratings. Of course, if Aaron Rogers is out the Packer’s rating will probably drop quickly. Patriots have risen to the top due to their league leading offense. Green Bay has league’s best defense.