There is no love lost between the Celtics and the Cavs. Can the Celtics pull the upset? I think that with careful lineup selection this series can go the distance. Here are some key points to help the Celtics select the lineups. All numbers are per 48 minutes and are adjusted for strength of opposition.

• Ray Allen is by far their best player this season.  After adjusting for who he plays with and against we estimate he plays 11 points better than average. In resting Ray it is key to keep the other starters on the court. During these time period the Celtics play 8 points better than average, but the rest of the time Ray is out the Celts play 13 points worse than average.
• Don’t sit Pierce and Ray Allen together. The Celtics are 14 points worse than average in this situation.Lineup 4A with Tony Allen in for Pierce plays 10 points better than average.
• With Rondo out, Ray and Tony Allen in, Wallace and Davis in Celtics play 25 points better than average.
• Finley is great with Ray (21 points better than average). Rest of time he is in Celtics are poor (12 points worse than average).
• With KG and Rondo out the Celtics are great with Davis, Rasheed and Ray in: 22 points better than average.

 Here is a summary of key Celtic lineups, with good ones boldfaced. For example, lineup 1 has played 1265 minutes and plays 14 points better than average. Note the Celtics have played many mediocre lineups major minutes. 2A and 3A should not play. They have proved to have negative synergy: that is the lineup plays much worse than it should.

We close by noting the Spurs mainly used their good regular seaosn lineups and upset the Mavericks.

 BOS      14.50 (   11.34    4.35   -6.99   20.98    1.74    5.48) 1265.11 minutes  437 appearances     1 A     11.19      295 $
R. Allen      Garnett       Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         29.86 years       1810_BOS_2010

BOS       2.06 (   12.15    8.37   -3.78   28.91    2.05    5.29)  194.50 minutes   73 appearances     2 A     -2.22       -9 $
R. Allen      Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       30.19 years       9986_BOS_2010

BOS      -0.73 (   10.13    9.12   -1.01   19.38    1.57    5.68)  182.28 minutes  109 appearances     3 A     -4.21      -16 $
R. Allen      Garnett       Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       31.89 years       9746_BOS_2010

BOS       9.88 (    8.41    0.89   -7.52    7.85    1.05    5.83)  121.36 minutes   59 appearances     4 A     12.26       31 $
T. Allen      R. Allen      Garnett       Perkins       Rondo         29.01 years       1299_BOS_2010

BOS       4.82 (    8.90    1.16   -7.74   -2.03    0.86    5.75)  107.94 minutes   54 appearances     5 A      8.89       20 $
R. Allen      Daniels       Garnett       Perkins       Rondo         29.21 years       1302_BOS_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
BOS     -12.02 (  -14.76  -10.78    3.98  -32.56   -2.45    5.20)   86.35 minutes   44 appearances     1 B     -0.56       -1 $
Daniels       Davis         Wallace       Robinson      Finley        30.13 years     204812_BOS_2010

BOS       4.14 (    7.80    2.10   -5.70   13.48    1.15    6.46)   74.33 minutes   43 appearances     2 B      0.00        0 $
R. Allen      Davis         Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         27.93 years       1802_BOS_2010

BOS       6.97 (   -2.07   -6.57   -4.50  -22.06   -0.86    2.50)   66.66 minutes   32 appearances     4 B      5.76        8 $
T. Allen      Garnett       Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         28.56 years       1809_BOS_2010

BOS       1.42 (    0.63    2.04    1.41    2.26    0.25    8.99)   66.55 minutes   30 appearances     5 B      2.89        4 $
R. Allen      Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         Scalabrine    29.49 years       3842_BOS_2010

BOS     -25.24 (   -1.06   -5.63   -4.57  -10.77   -0.38    3.21)   57.09 minutes   38 appearances     6 B    -17.66      -21 $
Daniels       House         Pierce        Wallace       Williams      30.86 years      25156_BOS_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
BOS       4.79 (    4.16    3.68   -0.48  -11.13    0.11    6.74)   39.86 minutes   33 appearances     1 C      6.02        5 $
R. Allen      Daniels       Davis         Rondo         Wallace       29.31 years       9230_BOS_2010

BOS      -2.60 (    5.78    2.85   -2.93    3.95    0.67    6.71)   37.74 minutes   27 appearances     2 C     -3.82       -3 $
R. Allen      Davis         Garnett       Pierce        Rondo         29.63 years       1562_BOS_2010

BOS       0.87 (    6.59    6.87    0.28   11.88    0.98    6.60)   37.25 minutes   38 appearances     3 C     -1.29       -1 $
R. Allen      Davis         Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       29.96 years       9738_BOS_2010

BOS      11.65 (   -1.57   -6.30   -4.73  -31.94   -1.05    2.42)   34.31 minutes   31 appearances     4 C     11.19        8 $
Daniels       Garnett       Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         28.76 years       1812_BOS_2010

BOS       9.46 (   -6.81   -4.05    2.76  -31.16   -1.61    3.66)   33.68 minutes   27 appearances     5 C      9.98        7 $
T. Allen      Davis         Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       28.67 years       9737_BOS_2010

BOS      16.91 (    5.35   -0.76   -6.11   16.07    0.99    6.99)   31.83 minutes   25 appearances     6 C     18.09       12 $
T. Allen      R. Allen      Davis         House         Wallace       30.67 years       8267_BOS_2010

BOS      10.09 (   15.65   -0.38  -16.02   39.01    2.70    5.51)   30.69 minutes   19 appearances     7 C      6.26        4 $
R. Allen      Garnett       House         Perkins       Rondo         29.74 years       1362_BOS_2010

BOS       2.39 (   -2.77   -1.53    1.24  -33.54   -1.22    2.55)   30.28 minutes   27 appearances     8 C      0.00        0 $
Daniels       Garnett       Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       30.79 years       9748_BOS_2010

BOS      -5.29 (    7.20    5.66   -1.54    6.25    0.89    5.99)   29.54 minutes   23 appearances     9 C     -6.50       -4 $
T. Allen      R. Allen      Garnett       Rondo         Wallace       31.04 years       9235_BOS_2010

BOS      36.59 (    7.70    5.93   -1.77   -3.63    0.69    5.92)   28.90 minutes   26 appearances    10 C     38.20       23 $
R. Allen      Daniels       Garnett       Rondo         Wallace       31.24 years

In a hard fought first round series the Spurs eliminated the Mavs. Here are some observations on the Mavs strategy since the big trade. All numbers are per48 minutes and adjusted for strength of opponents faced.

1. The Mavs went with Dampier, Butler, Kidd, Marion, and Dirk as their  starting lineup  in the first 4 games against the Spurs. This lineup played poorly during the regular season: 5 points worse than average in 67 minutes. So why stake your season on this  lineup when it has performed poorly?
2. More to the point Kidd ,Dirk and Dampier since the trade played 4 points better than average and Haywood Dirk and Kidd played 11 points better than average, so why waste so much of Dirk and Kidd’s time with Dampier?
3. Butler does not play well at the 2 but is much better at the 3 position. With Kidd, Terry, Dirk and Butler in the Mavs played 15 points better than average in 195 minutes.But with Kidd, Butler and Dirk and no other guards in the Mavs played only 3 points better than average.
4. In past years the Mavs had a great lineup with Bass and Dirk playing without  a  tradtiional center. This year no such lineup emerged. But Dirk Barea and Kidd on court with Haywood and Dampier both off was great (usually with Najera or Marion): 50 minutes 19 points better than average since the trade. We believe  that with some experimentation a good  ”small ball lineup” could have emerged
5. What about playing Roddy B? Dallas fans love him. Beaubois’s adjusted +/- rating is +6 on offense and +8 on defense. So he is an offensive star but a poor defender.  But with Haywood, Dirk and  Roddy in the Mavs played an amazing 34 points better than average . With Dampier, Dirk and Roddy in the Mavs played 12 points worse than average. This makes sense because Haywood can erase many of Roddy’s defensive miscues. In the first 4 games Roddy B with Haywood. was +2 points in 4 minutes! Surely this deserved more playing time. We saw in Game 6 what Roddy can do. Certainly the great combo of Roddy, Dirk and Haywood should have been allowed on the court some in this series.
6. During the regular season resting Dirk with Kidd, Maron, Terry and Haywood on the court was great (played 20 points better than average). In playoffs this way of resting Dirk was +16 points in 15 minutes. Why not use it more often? rest of time Dirk was out the Mavs lost 5 points.
7. When Terry, Dirk, and Butler were in, the Mavs were down 35 points in 73 minutes. This combo lost ground in every game including 10 points in the decisive game 6.
8. Butler (Adusted +/-  -7)   played much worse than Marion(Adjusted +/- of +11)  in the series, but Butler was on court 54 minutes more than Marion.

Given this information we would have recommended  for the season that the Mavs allocate minutes as follows:

• 5 Position: Haywood 28 minutes, Dirk 7 minutes Najera/Dampier 13 minutes
• 4 Position: Dirk 32 minutes Marion 16 minutes
• 3 Position: Butler 30 min Marion 15 minutes Roddy B 3 minutes
• 2 Position : Terry 36 minutes Roddy B  12 minutes
• 1 Position Kidd 35 minutes Barea 13 minutes

Laker haters everywhere were disapointed by the Laker’s near perfect performance. As we have pointed out all series, the Thunder’s starting lineup does not get it done. The Thunder starting lineup was down 24 points. For the series as a whole when the starting lineup is on the court the Thunder play 9 points worse than average per 48 minutes.  The rest of the time KD is in the Thunder play 23 points better than average. Clearly much of KD’s greatness is being wasted.

The Thunder are doing a great job of resting KD with Collison, Maynor,Ibaka ,  Harden and Green 20 minutes up 4 points +4 rating.

Here is a summary of the series lineups: The Lakers have played 4 points better than average and the Thunder 5 points better than average. Note for example, the Thunder’s starting lineup #1 is down 33 points (24 points in game 5) in 77 minutes and plays 9 points worse than average.

Lineups 2, 6, and 16 are great for Thunder. For the Lakers lineups1 and  6 are great. If the Thunder can solve the Laker’s starting lineup, they have a shot in game 7 (if they get there). Otherwise this great run will come to an end.
                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Durant      Green       Krstic      Sefolosha   Westbrook     -8.73    76.89  LAL  OKC*    -20.60   -33        9292_OKC_2010
    2  Collison    Durant      Harden      Ibaka       Westbrook     34.35    22.41  LAL  OKC*     27.83    13        8246_OKC_2010
    3  Collison    Green       Harden      Ibaka       Maynor         4.36    20.68  LAL  OKC*      9.26     4      131130_OKC_2010
    4  Collison    Durant      Green       Ibaka       Westbrook     28.72    14.96  LAL  OKC*     16.06     5        8238_OKC_2010
    5  Collison    Durant      Harden      Ibaka       Maynor        19.29    13.02  LAL  OKC*     14.74     4      131126_OKC_2010
    6  Collison    Durant      Green       Sefolosha   Westbrook     53.87    12.36  LAL  OKC*     42.74    11        9230_OKC_2010
    7  Harden      Ibaka       Thomas      Weaver      Maynor         4.01    12.00  LAL  OKC*     16.00     4      137264_OKC_2010
    8  Collison    Durant      Green       Harden      Westbrook     -3.09     9.31  LAL  OKC*    -15.54    -3        8222_OKC_2010
    9  Durant      Green       Ibaka       Krstic      Westbrook     -0.54     9.13  LAL  OKC*    -15.73    -3        8300_OKC_2010
   10  Durant      Green       Harden      Ibaka       Westbrook      7.92     6.55  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0        8252_OKC_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Collison    Green       Harden      Ibaka       Westbrook    -30.57     5.06  LAL  OKC*    -28.43    -3        8250_OKC_2010
   12  Durant      Green       Krstic      Sefolosha   Maynor        15.55     4.87  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      132172_OKC_2010
   13  Green       Harden      Ibaka       Krstic      Maynor         1.60     4.45  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      131192_OKC_2010
   14  Durant      Green       Ibaka       Sefolosha   Westbrook     62.90     4.01  LAL  OKC*     47.94     4        9260_OKC_2010
   15  Green       Harden      Krstic      Sefolosha   Westbrook    -30.00     3.12  LAL  OKC*    -30.15    -2        9304_OKC_2010
   16  Durant      Green       Ibaka       Sefolosha   Maynor       117.12     3.12  LAL  OKC*    107.81     7      132140_OKC_2010
   17  Collison    Durant      Ibaka       Sefolosha   Maynor        -5.68     2.48  LAL  OKC*    -19.34    -1      132134_OKC_2010
   18  Collison    Durant      Green       Harden      Maynor       -11.53     2.45  LAL  OKC*    -19.59    -1      131102_OKC_2010
   19  Collison    Durant      Ibaka       Sefolosha   Westbrook     75.57     2.40  LAL  OKC*     60.00     3        9254_OKC_2010
   20  Mullens     Ollie       Sefolosha   Thomas      Maynor      -113.94     2.25  LAL  OKC*    -85.33    -4      134912_OKC_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Durant      Green       Harden      Sefolosha   Westbrook     -7.78     2.17  LAL  OKC*    -22.15    -1        9244_OKC_2010
   22  Harden      Mullens     Ollie       Thomas      Maynor       -28.61     1.98  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      133904_OKC_2010
   23  Durant      Green       Harden      Krstic      Westbrook    -63.60     1.33  LAL  OKC*    -72.00    -2        8284_OKC_2010
   24  Harden      Ibaka       Ollie       Thomas      Maynor      -145.41     1.22  LAL  OKC*   -118.36    -3      133680_OKC_2010
   25  Durant      Green       Harden      Westbrook   Maynor      -187.05     0.50  LAL  OKC*   -192.00    -2      139292_OKC_2010
   26  Collison    Durant      Green       Sefolosha   Maynor      -306.33     0.45  LAL  OKC*   -320.00    -3      132110_OKC_2010
   27  Green       Harden      Ibaka       Krstic      Westbrook   -104.20     0.42  LAL  OKC*   -115.20    -1        8312_OKC_2010
   28  Durant      Harden      Ibaka       Krstic      Maynor         3.91     0.28  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      131188_OKC_2010
   29  Durant      Green       Harden      Ibaka       Maynor      -997.91     0.10  LAL  OKC*   -993.10    -2      131132_OKC_2010
   30  Harden      Ibaka       Krstic      Westbrook   Maynor         3.91     0.01  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      139376_OKC_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      5.11   240.00                -1.80    -9

end of file

 

LA LAKERS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol         18.51    92.87  OKC  LAL*     14.47    28         109_LAL_2010
    2  Artest      Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom          -4.05    37.61  OKC  LAL*    -11.49    -9         613_LAL_2010
    3  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Odom        Walton        -8.52    20.15  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0        4634_LAL_2010
    4  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Odom           1.33    10.42  OKC  LAL*     -4.65    -1         557_LAL_2010
    5  Artest      Brown       Bryant      Gasol       Odom          20.21     8.73  OKC  LAL*     11.01     2         583_LAL_2010
    6  Artest      Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom          66.85     8.02  OKC  LAL*     53.90     9         597_LAL_2010
    7  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Odom         -25.37     7.23  OKC  LAL*    -19.96    -3         542_LAL_2010
    8  Artest      Brown       Fisher      Gasol       Odom         -62.73     6.88  OKC  LAL*    -76.65   -11         611_LAL_2010
    9  Brown       Farmar      Morrison    Odom        Powell       -52.77     4.83  OKC  LAL*    -29.79    -3        1810_LAL_2010
   10  Brown       Farmar      Mbenga      Morrison    Powell        -8.12     4.23  OKC  LAL*     45.35     4        1426_LAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Brown       Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom         -15.69     3.92  OKC  LAL*    -36.76    -3         598_LAL_2010
   12  Artest      Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Powell       -26.80     3.44  OKC  LAL*    -27.72    -2        1125_LAL_2010
   13  Artest      Brown       Farmar      Gasol       Odom          -5.77     3.36  OKC  LAL*    -14.38    -1         595_LAL_2010
   14  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Fisher      Odom          -8.20     3.25  OKC  LAL*     14.77     1         570_LAL_2010
   15  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Odom         -29.95     2.92  OKC  LAL*    -49.37    -3         541_LAL_2010
   16  Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol       Walton        43.88     2.62  OKC  LAL*     55.03     3        4204_LAL_2010
   17  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Morrison    Powell       -62.16     2.45  OKC  LAL*    -39.18    -2        1306_LAL_2010
   18  Artest      Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       Odom           4.57     2.28  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0         625_LAL_2010
   19  Artest      Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Odom         -80.46     2.05  OKC  LAL*    -93.66    -4         539_LAL_2010
   20  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Gasol         15.60     1.78  OKC  LAL*     26.92     1          94_LAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Gasol         78.80     1.62  OKC  LAL*     59.38     2          93_LAL_2010
   22  Brown       Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Walton       -47.91     1.50  OKC  LAL*    -64.00    -2        4690_LAL_2010
   23  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Morrison    Odom         -22.97     1.47  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0         794_LAL_2010
   24  Brown       Farmar      Mbenga      Powell      Walton        94.96     1.22  OKC  LAL*    118.36     3        5266_LAL_2010
   25  Artest      Brown       Bynum       Fisher      Odom         159.47     1.17  OKC  LAL*    164.57     4         555_LAL_2010
   26  Brown       Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Powell       -86.97     1.02  OKC  LAL*    -94.43    -2        1126_LAL_2010
   27  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol        -73.97     0.80  OKC  LAL*    -58.47    -1         110_LAL_2010
   28  Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Fisher      Odom        -185.10     0.53  OKC  LAL*   -180.00    -2         572_LAL_2010
   29  Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Walton       204.56     0.50  OKC  LAL*    192.00     2        4692_LAL_2010
   30  Artest      Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       Powell       -99.60     0.45  OKC  LAL*   -105.88    -1        1137_LAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   31  Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom        Walton       131.49     0.38  OKC  LAL*    125.22     1        4708_LAL_2010
   32  Artest      Bryant      Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       -240.83     0.19  OKC  LAL*   -254.87    -1         117_LAL_2010
   33  Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       Morrison    Powell         6.28     0.07  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0        1392_LAL_2010
   34  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Fisher        14.04     0.03  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0          61_LAL_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      3.78   240.00                 1.80     9

The undermanned Blazers have fought hard but they are down 3-2. So far in the series the Blazers have played 5 points worse than an average NBA team and the Suns have played 16 points better than average. This will be tough to overcome. Miller (+1) Adjusted +/-) and Baum (-2 Adjusted +/-) have been the most effective Blazers. Basically the  bench (crippled by injuries) has killed the Blazers. When Aldridge, Camby, Miller and Batum are in (91 minutes) the Blazers play 11 points better than average . The rest of the time the Blazers play a woeful 16 points worse than average. It seems the best hope for a Game 6 win is to rest the starters en masse so they can play together as muc  as possible. Even if 3 starters are off the court, things can’t much worse than they have been.

Below is a summary of the lineups for this series.  For example, Blazer lineup 1 has played 51 minutes, is +10 points and has played 15 points (per 48 minutes) better than an average lineup. Lineups 4, 6, 7, and 18 have rested starters well in their limited time. Lineups 3 and 4 for the Suns (both with Dudley) have killed Blazers. These lineups are +53 points!!! If Blazers can solve these combos they have a shot.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Aldridge    Batum       Bayless     Miller      Camby         14.81    50.52  PHO  POR*      9.50    10      131207_POR_2010
    2  Aldridge    Batum       Fernandez   Miller      Camby          6.34    31.06  PHO  POR*      0.00     0      131235_POR_2010
    3  Aldridge    Fernandez   Miller      Webster     Camby         -5.35    13.77  PHO  POR*    -10.45    -3      147617_POR_2010
    4  Aldridge    Batum       Howard      Miller      Roy           29.49     9.17  PHO  POR*     26.18     5        8387_POR_2010
    5  Aldridge    Bayless     Fernandez   Howard      Webster      -14.04     8.82  PHO  POR*    -21.73    -4       16485_POR_2010
    6  Aldridge    Fernandez   Howard      Miller      Webster       21.50     8.60  PHO  POR*     16.75     3       16609_POR_2010
    7  Aldridge    Bayless     Miller      Webster     Camby         27.04     7.79  PHO  POR*     18.36     3      147589_POR_2010
    8  Cunningham  Mills       Pendergraph Webster     Diener       -60.61     7.33  PHO  POR*    -19.63    -3      280848_POR_2010
    9  Aldridge    Batum       Miller      Roy         Camby         39.06     6.77  PHO  POR*     35.47     5      139395_POR_2010
   10  Aldridge    Bayless     Miller      Roy         Camby        -13.97     6.03  PHO  POR*    -23.90    -3      139397_POR_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Bayless     Fernandez   Howard      Webster     Camby        -33.99     5.93  PHO  POR*    -48.50    -6      147556_POR_2010
   12  Aldridge    Bayless     Howard      Miller      Webster      -43.56     5.55  PHO  POR*    -51.89    -6       16581_POR_2010
   13  Aldridge    Bayless     Cunningham  Miller      Webster      -48.31     4.90  PHO  POR*    -48.98    -5       16533_POR_2010
   14  Bayless     Cunningham  Fernandez   Pendergraph Webster      -43.03     4.70  PHO  POR*    -30.61    -3       18484_POR_2010
   15  Bayless     Howard      Miller      Webster     Camby          3.57     4.31  PHO  POR*    -11.17    -1      147652_POR_2010
   16  Batum       Fernandez   Miller      Webster     Camby          2.43     3.81  PHO  POR*    -12.58    -1      147618_POR_2010
   17  Cunningham  Fernandez   Miller      Webster     Camby        -58.70     3.50  PHO  POR*    -68.48    -5      147632_POR_2010
   18  Bayless     Cunningham  Howard      Miller      Webster       55.98     3.43  PHO  POR*     55.92     4       16596_POR_2010
   19  Aldridge    Bayless     Roy         Webster     Camby        -64.21     3.30  PHO  POR*    -72.73    -5      155653_POR_2010
   20  Batum       Bayless     Miller      Webster     Camby         21.26     3.20  PHO  POR*     15.00     1      147590_POR_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Aldridge    Batum       Bayless     Howard      Webster        3.66     2.92  PHO  POR*      0.00     0       16455_POR_2010
   22  Aldridge    Bayless     Fernandez   Howard      Roy          -64.28     2.78  PHO  POR*    -86.23    -5        8293_POR_2010
   23  Aldridge    Bayless     Howard      Miller      Roy          -68.68     2.72  PHO  POR*    -88.34    -5        8389_POR_2010
   24  Batum       Bayless     Howard      Miller      Camby       -105.83     2.65  PHO  POR*   -108.68    -6      131270_POR_2010
   25  Cunningham  Fernandez   Mills       Pendergraph Webster       39.79     2.58  PHO  POR*     92.90     5       18736_POR_2010
   26  Aldridge    Batum       Miller      Webster     Camby        -73.20     2.32  PHO  POR*    -82.70    -4      147587_POR_2010
   27  Batum       Bayless     Fernandez   Webster     Camby         17.89     2.27  PHO  POR*      0.00     0      147494_POR_2010
   28  Aldridge    Fernandez   Howard      Miller      Roy          -12.76     2.12  PHO  POR*    -22.68    -1        8417_POR_2010
   29  Aldridge    Batum       Howard      Mills       Webster       -5.74     1.73  PHO  POR*    -27.69    -1       16707_POR_2010
   30  Bayless     Fernandez   Howard      Roy         Webster      -55.53     1.67  PHO  POR*    -57.60    -2       24676_POR_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   31  Aldridge    Batum       Howard      Miller      Webster      -96.81     1.62  PHO  POR*   -118.76    -4       16579_POR_2010
   32  Bayless     Cunningham  Miller      Webster     Camby        -84.68     1.50  PHO  POR*    -96.00    -3      147604_POR_2010
   33  Aldridge    Bayless     Cunningham  Miller      Roy          -45.03     1.43  PHO  POR*    -66.98    -2        8341_POR_2010
   34  Aldridge    Cunningham  Fernandez   Miller      Roy         -149.48     1.40  PHO  POR*   -171.43    -5        8369_POR_2010
   35  Bayless     Miller      Roy         Webster     Camby         15.50     1.38  PHO  POR*      0.00     0      155780_POR_2010
   36  Aldridge    Batum       Bayless     Miller      Webster       50.34     1.25  PHO  POR*     38.40     1       16519_POR_2010
   37  Batum       Fernandez   Howard      Miller      Camby         60.35     1.25  PHO  POR*     38.40     1      131298_POR_2010
   38  Bayless     Cunningham  Miller      Pendergraph Webster      110.23     1.23  PHO  POR*    116.76     3       18580_POR_2010
   39  Bayless     Fernandez   Roy         Webster     Camby        -64.47     1.23  PHO  POR*    -77.84    -2      155684_POR_2010
   40  Aldridge    Miller      Roy         Webster     Camby         96.63     1.18  PHO  POR*     81.13     2      155777_POR_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   41  Aldridge    Bayless     Howard      Roy         Webster        4.21     1.17  PHO  POR*      0.00     0       24645_POR_2010
   42  Aldridge    Fernandez   Miller      Roy         Webster      -29.16     1.15  PHO  POR*    -41.74    -1       24737_POR_2010
   43  Aldridge    Batum       Fernandez   Howard      Miller        -4.66     1.03  PHO  POR*      0.00     0         227_POR_2010
   44  Bayless     Howard      Miller      Roy         Webster       13.58     1.02  PHO  POR*      0.00     0       24772_POR_2010
   45  Aldridge    Batum       Bayless     Howard      Miller       -85.49     0.92  PHO  POR*   -103.44    -2         199_POR_2010
   46  Fernandez   Miller      Roy         Webster     Camby         13.37     0.85  PHO  POR*      0.00     0      155808_POR_2010
   47  Fernandez   Howard      Miller      Webster     Camby         21.95     0.82  PHO  POR*      0.00     0      147680_POR_2010
   48  Aldridge    Fernandez   Mills       Pendergraph Webster        0.82     0.72  PHO  POR*      0.00     0       18721_POR_2010
   49  Aldridge    Batum       Bayless     Cunningham  Miller      -325.04     0.69  PHO  POR*   -346.99    -5         151_POR_2010
   50  Aldridge    Batum       Miller      Roy         Webster        6.64     0.40  PHO  POR*      0.00     0       24707_POR_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   51  Bayless     Fernandez   Miller      Webster     Camby         -0.29     0.37  PHO  POR*      0.00     0      147620_POR_2010
   52  Aldridge    Batum       Bayless     Fernandez   Webster        8.52     0.28  PHO  POR*      0.00     0       16423_POR_2010
   53  Batum       Bayless     Howard      Webster     Camby       -361.06     0.25  PHO  POR*   -378.95    -2      147526_POR_2010
   54  Batum       Bayless     Fernandez   Howard      Webster      447.74     0.22  PHO  POR*    429.85     2       16486_POR_2010
   55  Batum       Cunningham  Fernandez   Miller      Webster     -763.56     0.19  PHO  POR*   -771.43    -3       16562_POR_2010
   56  Aldridge    Batum       Bayless     Cunningham  Fernandez     10.45     0.18  PHO  POR*      0.00     0          55_POR_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES     -5.44   240.00               -10.60   -53

end of file

 

PHOENIX SUNS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Collins     Hill        Nash        Richardson  Stoudemire    11.34    64.03  POR  PHO*     -0.75    -1        7432_PHO_2010
    2  Frye        Hill        Nash        Richardson  Stoudemire     7.99    51.69  POR  PHO*     -3.71    -4        7488_PHO_2010
    3  Amundson    Barbosa     Dragic      Dudley      Frye          21.51    37.59  POR  PHO*     20.43    16         115_PHO_2010
    4  Dudley      Frye        Nash        Richardson  Stoudemire    64.37    29.75  POR  PHO*     59.74    37        7264_PHO_2010
    5  Amundson    Barbosa     Clark       Dragic      Jones        -64.88     9.62  POR  PHO*     -4.98    -1       32791_PHO_2010
    6  Amundson    Barbosa     Dragic      Dudley      Stoudemire    36.67     7.18  POR  PHO*     33.36     5        4147_PHO_2010
    7  Barbosa     Dragic      Dudley      Frye        Stoudemire   -17.64     6.21  POR  PHO*    -15.47    -2        4210_PHO_2010
    8  Amundson    Hill        Nash        Richardson  Stoudemire    14.61     6.12  POR  PHO*      0.01     0        7425_PHO_2010
    9  Amundson    Barbosa     Dudley      Frye        Nash          41.48     3.88  POR  PHO*     37.72     3        1123_PHO_2010
   10  Amundson    Dudley      Frye        Nash        Richardson    49.12     3.31  POR  PHO*     28.96     2        3169_PHO_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Dragic      Dudley      Frye        Richardson  Stoudemire    -5.64     2.62  POR  PHO*    -18.40    -1        6256_PHO_2010
   12  Barbosa     Dudley      Frye        Nash        Stoudemire    44.36     2.56  POR  PHO*     37.34     2        5218_PHO_2010
   13  Barbosa     Collins     Dragic      Dudley      Frye         -81.48     2.37  POR  PHO*    -20.28    -1         122_PHO_2010
   14  Amundson    Barbosa     Clark       Dragic      Dudley       -29.92     2.25  POR  PHO*    -21.33    -1          55_PHO_2010
   15  Barbosa     Dragic      Frye        Hill        Stoudemire    88.50     1.76  POR  PHO*     81.44     3        4434_PHO_2010
   16  Amundson    Barbosa     Collins     Hill        Nash          47.58     1.63  POR  PHO*     29.39     1        1291_PHO_2010
   17  Barbosa     Frye        Hill        Nash        Stoudemire   -55.23     1.60  POR  PHO*    -60.00    -2        5442_PHO_2010
   18  Dudley      Frye        Hill        Nash        Richardson   179.70     1.15  POR  PHO*    167.44     4        3424_PHO_2010
   19  Amundson    Barbosa     Hill        Nash        Stoudemire   -44.60     0.95  POR  PHO*    -50.53    -1        5379_PHO_2010
   20  Amundson    Barbosa     Dragic      Hill        Stoudemire    10.61     0.72  POR  PHO*      0.00     0        4371_PHO_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Amundson    Frye        Hill        Nash        Richardson  -170.49     0.50  POR  PHO*   -192.00    -2        3393_PHO_2010
   22  Amundson    Dragic      Dudley      Frye        Richardson  -293.80     0.48  POR  PHO*   -298.34    -3        2161_PHO_2010
   23  Amundson    Dragic      Frye        Hill        Richardson    21.51     0.42  POR  PHO*      0.00     0        2385_PHO_2010
   24  Barbosa     Collins     Hill        Nash        Stoudemire  -235.23     0.40  POR  PHO*   -240.00    -2        5386_PHO_2010
   25  Amundson    Barbosa     Collins     Dragic      Richardson    18.41     0.37  POR  PHO*      0.00     0        2075_PHO_2010
   26  Barbosa     Dudley      Hill        Nash        Richardson   539.36     0.28  POR  PHO*    523.47     3        3362_PHO_2010
   27  Amundson    Barbosa     Dragic      Frye        Hill        -206.22     0.22  POR  PHO*   -221.54    -1         339_PHO_2010
   28  Barbosa     Dudley      Frye        Nash        Richardson  -454.64     0.20  POR  PHO*   -472.13    -2        3170_PHO_2010
   29  Amundson    Barbosa     Dragic      Frye        Richardson   325.93     0.15  POR  PHO*    313.04     1        2131_PHO_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES     15.50   240.00                10.60    53

The undermanned Jazz continue to inspire through their energetic, back to basics play. The Jazz have played 12 points better than an average team in this series and the Nuggets  8 points better than an average team. A lineup summary follows . As we have said all season, Fesenko is a really good player. Now he is getting his chance and delivering. Lineups 1 and 8 are great with Fes. Lineup 1 is +19 points in 42 minutes and plays  28 points better than average. Lineups 3 and 8 with 3 guards, Millsap and Boozer or Fes have also killed the Nuggets. For the Nuggets lineups 4-6 are great with Birdman, Melo and Smith. Rest of series Nuggets are down 35 points.

UTAH JAZZ

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Boozer      Fesenko     Matthews    Miles       Williams      28.40    42.11  DEN  UTA*     21.66    19        8837_UTA_2010
    2  Boozer      Matthews    Miles       Millsap     Williams      -1.28    39.79  DEN  UTA*    -10.85    -9        9857_UTA_2010
    3  Boozer      Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Williams      35.54    28.39  DEN  UTA*     28.75    17        9377_UTA_2010
    4  Boozer      Korver      Miles       Millsap     Williams       5.66    22.51  DEN  UTA*    -10.66    -5        9761_UTA_2010
    5  Fesenko     Korver      Miles       Millsap     Price         19.53    10.15  DEN  UTA*      9.47     2        5668_UTA_2010
    6  Boozer      Matthews    Miles       Okur        Williams       9.65     7.07  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0       10881_UTA_2010
    7  Boozer      Fesenko     Korver      Matthews    Williams       1.23     6.29  DEN  UTA*     -7.67    -1        8357_UTA_2010
    8  Fesenko     Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Williams      96.54     5.87  DEN  UTA*     90.00    11        9380_UTA_2010
    9  Boozer      Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Price          2.80     4.42  DEN  UTA*    -10.74    -1        5281_UTA_2010
   10  Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Okur        Price         29.47     3.93  DEN  UTA*     12.20     1        7328_UTA_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Boozer      Korver      Matthews    Miles       Williams    -128.09     2.83  DEN  UTA*   -135.53    -8        8865_UTA_2010
   12  Fesenko     Korver      Miles       Millsap     Williams     -45.07     2.77  DEN  UTA*    -69.40    -4        9764_UTA_2010
   13  Boozer      Matthews    Millsap     Price       Williams     -25.03     2.17  DEN  UTA*    -44.31    -2       13441_UTA_2010
   14  Fesenko     Koufos      Price       Gaines      Jeffers       57.97     2.00  DEN  UTA*     72.00     3       53316_UTA_2010
   15  Fesenko     Koufos      Matthews    Gaines      Jeffers     -190.05     1.83  DEN  UTA*   -157.09    -6       49348_UTA_2010
   16  Korver      Koufos      Millsap     Price       Jeffers       69.27     1.62  DEN  UTA*     59.32     2       37984_UTA_2010
   17  Boozer      Fesenko     Korver      Miles       Price        -12.07     1.60  DEN  UTA*    -30.00    -1        4645_UTA_2010
   18  Boozer      Korver      Miles       Millsap     Price       -113.30     1.12  DEN  UTA*   -128.96    -3        5665_UTA_2010
   19  Fesenko     Korver      Matthews    Miles       Williams       4.12     1.02  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0        8868_UTA_2010
   20  Boozer      Fesenko     Korver      Miles       Williams     121.59     0.86  DEN  UTA*    110.77     2        8741_UTA_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Fesenko     Korver      Koufos      Matthews    Williams      15.73     0.81  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0        8420_UTA_2010
   22  Fesenko     Korver      Koufos      Matthews    Price       -119.76     0.76  DEN  UTA*   -126.04    -2        4324_UTA_2010
   23  Fesenko     Korver      Millsap     Williams    Jeffers      153.05     0.67  DEN  UTA*    142.57     2       42020_UTA_2010
   24  Boozer      Korver      Millsap     Price       Jeffers     -179.57     0.50  DEN  UTA*   -192.00    -2       37921_UTA_2010
   25  Boozer      Koufos      Matthews    Miles       Gaines       -32.96     0.47  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0       17089_UTA_2010
   26  Fesenko     Korver      Millsap     Price       Jeffers       10.31     0.33  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0       37924_UTA_2010
   27  Fesenko     Koufos      Matthews    Miles       Williams   -1352.10     0.07  DEN  UTA*  -1371.43    -2        8900_UTA_2010
   28  Fesenko     Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Price          1.80     0.03  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0        5284_UTA_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES     12.39   192.00                 3.25    13

end of file

 

DENVER NUGGETS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Afflalo     Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Martin         0.59    54.14  UTA  DEN*    -10.64   -12        1321_DEN_2010
    2  Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Martin      Smith         18.75    24.29  UTA  DEN*      5.91     3        5416_DEN_2010
    3  Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Lawson      Martin        11.99    14.47  UTA  DEN*     -0.02     0        1832_DEN_2010
    4  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Smith         36.78    12.82  UTA  DEN*     26.16     7        4396_DEN_2010
    5  Andersen    Anthony     Hilario     Lawson      Smith         46.85    10.01  UTA  DEN*     33.54     7        4876_DEN_2010
    6  Andersen    Anthony     Lawson      Martin      Smith         49.82     9.95  UTA  DEN*     38.60     8        5644_DEN_2010
    7  Afflalo     Andersen    Hilario     Lawson      Smith        -21.72     9.19  UTA  DEN*    -26.12    -5        4869_DEN_2010
    8  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Martin      Smith       -108.38     9.19  UTA  DEN*   -125.59   -24        5164_DEN_2010
    9  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Lawson        44.85     5.97  UTA  DEN*     32.18     4         812_DEN_2010
   10  Anthony     Hilario     Lawson      Martin      Smith         51.24     5.30  UTA  DEN*     36.15     4        5896_DEN_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Petro       Smith         13.91     4.53  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        6188_DEN_2010
   12  Afflalo     Andersen    Lawson      Martin      Smith        -44.15     3.96  UTA  DEN*    -60.52    -5        5637_DEN_2010
   13  Anthony     Billups     Carter      Hilario     Martin       -36.52     3.65  UTA  DEN*    -52.60    -4        1384_DEN_2010
   14  Afflalo     Anthony     Hilario     Lawson      Smith        121.26     3.25  UTA  DEN*    103.38     7        4873_DEN_2010
   15  Allen       Carter      Graham      Lawson      Petro         55.51     2.65  UTA  DEN*     72.45     4        2754_DEN_2010
   16  Andersen    Anthony     Lawson      Petro       Smith        -19.94     2.02  UTA  DEN*    -23.80    -1        6668_DEN_2010
   17  Andersen    Billups     Hilario     Lawson      Smith       -105.74     1.95  UTA  DEN*   -123.08    -5        4900_DEN_2010
   18  Afflalo     Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Smith         71.60     1.93  UTA  DEN*     49.83     2        4393_DEN_2010
   19  Afflalo     Allen       Graham      Petro       Smith       -108.23     1.75  UTA  DEN*    -82.29    -3        6275_DEN_2010
   20  Afflalo     Andersen    Lawson      Petro       Smith        -18.27     1.72  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        6661_DEN_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Afflalo     Hilario     Lawson      Martin      Smith       -102.33     1.66  UTA  DEN*   -115.16    -4        5889_DEN_2010
   22  Billups     Hilario     Lawson      Martin      Smith         11.02     1.65  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        5920_DEN_2010
   23  Afflalo     Billups     Hilario     Lawson      Martin        37.72     1.45  UTA  DEN*     33.10     1        1825_DEN_2010
   24  Afflalo     Billups     Hilario     Martin      Smith        -53.41     1.40  UTA  DEN*    -68.36    -2        5409_DEN_2010
   25  Afflalo     Andersen    Billups     Martin      Smith         57.18     1.08  UTA  DEN*     44.31     1        5157_DEN_2010
   26  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Carter      Hilario      -68.62     0.57  UTA  DEN*    -84.71    -1         364_DEN_2010
   27  Afflalo     Andersen    Billups     Hilario     Lawson       171.05     0.52  UTA  DEN*    184.03     2         805_DEN_2010
   28  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Lawson      Martin       348.39     0.43  UTA  DEN*    332.31     3        1580_DEN_2010
   29  Afflalo     Billups     Graham      Hilario     Smith         29.18     0.34  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        4513_DEN_2010
   30  Afflalo     Andersen    Billups     Hilario     Smith        -15.34     0.15  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        4389_DEN_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      7.84   192.00                -3.25   -13

Adjusted +/-

This number tells us per 48 minutes, after adjusting for strength of opponent how well each player has played in series. For Nuggets Lawson +12 and Nene +12 have played well but Martin -8 and Billups -7 have played poorly.

   For the Jazz, Williams +13, Fesenko +14 and Korver +10, have carried the day.

My son had two lacrosse games today and to paraphrase Rober Frost I have “miles of exams tograde before I sleep,” so I can’t do much analysis of this great series. But PROPS to the injury-riddled Jazz for their courageous effort. Here is a summary of lineup analysis to date.

After adjusting for strength of opponent, the Jazz have played 11 points better than average and the Nuggets 9 points better than average.

Lineups 2 and 3 have been great for Jazz. The 3 guard lineup (#3) has played 24.99 minutes and is +10 points and has played 26,81 points per 48 minutes better than an average lineup. This lineup dominated Game 3. Lineups 1 and 4 with Boozer Millsap Miles frontcourt have done poorly. Lineups 2, 6 and 7 have done well for the Nuggets. Lineup 8 has killed the Nuggets

UTAH JAZZ

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Boozer      Matthews    Miles       Millsap     Williams     -15.53    27.24  DEN  UTA*    -26.43   -15        9857_UTA_2010
    2  Boozer      Fesenko     Matthews    Miles       Williams      35.73    26.31  DEN  UTA*     27.36    15        8837_UTA_2010
    3  Boozer      Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Williams      26.81    24.99  DEN  UTA*     19.21    10        9377_UTA_2010
    4  Boozer      Korver      Miles       Millsap     Williams       5.75    22.51  DEN  UTA*    -10.66    -5        9761_UTA_2010
    5  Boozer      Matthews    Miles       Okur        Williams       9.81     7.07  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0       10881_UTA_2010
    6  Fesenko     Korver      Miles       Millsap     Price         34.07     6.47  DEN  UTA*     22.27     3        5668_UTA_2010
    7  Boozer      Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Price          2.89     4.42  DEN  UTA*    -10.74    -1        5281_UTA_2010
    8  Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Okur        Price         29.59     3.93  DEN  UTA*     12.20     1        7328_UTA_2010
    9  Fesenko     Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Williams     107.27     3.87  DEN  UTA*     99.30     8        9380_UTA_2010
   10  Fesenko     Korver      Miles       Millsap     Williams     -45.36     2.77  DEN  UTA*    -69.40    -4        9764_UTA_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Boozer      Fesenko     Korver      Matthews    Williams     -59.42     2.58  DEN  UTA*    -74.54    -4        8357_UTA_2010
   12  Boozer      Matthews    Millsap     Price       Williams     -25.13     2.17  DEN  UTA*    -44.31    -2       13441_UTA_2010
   13  Fesenko     Koufos      Price       Gaines      Jeffers       58.12     2.00  DEN  UTA*     72.00     3       53316_UTA_2010
   14  Fesenko     Koufos      Matthews    Gaines      Jeffers     -189.49     1.83  DEN  UTA*   -157.09    -6       49348_UTA_2010
   15  Korver      Koufos      Millsap     Price       Jeffers       69.36     1.62  DEN  UTA*     59.32     2       37984_UTA_2010
   16  Boozer      Korver      Miles       Millsap     Price       -113.20     1.12  DEN  UTA*   -128.96    -3        5665_UTA_2010
   17  Fesenko     Korver      Millsap     Williams    Jeffers      153.57     0.67  DEN  UTA*    142.57     2       42020_UTA_2010
   18  Fesenko     Korver      Koufos      Matthews    Williams      18.86     0.60  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0        8420_UTA_2010
   19  Boozer      Korver      Millsap     Price       Jeffers     -179.57     0.50  DEN  UTA*   -192.00    -2       37921_UTA_2010
   20  Boozer      Koufos      Matthews    Miles       Gaines       -32.40     0.47  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0       17089_UTA_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Boozer      Fesenko     Korver      Miles       Williams     235.36     0.43  DEN  UTA*    221.54     2        8741_UTA_2010
   22  Fesenko     Korver      Millsap     Price       Jeffers       10.70     0.33  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0       37924_UTA_2010
   23  Fesenko     Koufos      Matthews    Miles       Williams   -1352.28     0.07  DEN  UTA*  -1371.43    -2        8900_UTA_2010
   24  Fesenko     Korver      Matthews    Millsap     Price          2.72     0.03  DEN  UTA*      0.00     0        5284_UTA_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES     11.05   144.00                 0.67     2

end of file

 

DENVER NUGGETS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Afflalo     Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Martin         2.28    40.62  UTA  DEN*     -7.09    -6        1321_DEN_2010
    2  Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Martin      Smith         31.91    15.22  UTA  DEN*     22.06     7        5416_DEN_2010
    3  Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Lawson      Martin        11.75    14.47  UTA  DEN*     -0.02     0        1832_DEN_2010
    4  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Smith         10.62    11.29  UTA  DEN*      0.01     0        4396_DEN_2010
    5  Afflalo     Andersen    Hilario     Lawson      Smith        -21.91     9.19  UTA  DEN*    -26.12    -5        4869_DEN_2010
    6  Andersen    Anthony     Lawson      Martin      Smith         61.01     7.50  UTA  DEN*     51.21     8        5644_DEN_2010
    7  Andersen    Anthony     Hilario     Lawson      Smith         88.83     7.06  UTA  DEN*     74.74    11        4876_DEN_2010
    8  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Martin      Smith       -103.82     6.37  UTA  DEN*   -120.84   -16        5164_DEN_2010
    9  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Hilario     Lawson        44.41     5.97  UTA  DEN*     32.18     4         812_DEN_2010
   10  Afflalo     Andersen    Lawson      Martin      Smith        -44.35     3.96  UTA  DEN*    -60.52    -5        5637_DEN_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Anthony     Billups     Carter      Hilario     Martin       -37.02     3.65  UTA  DEN*    -52.60    -4        1384_DEN_2010
   12  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Petro       Smith         10.41     3.38  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        6188_DEN_2010
   13  Allen       Carter      Graham      Lawson      Petro         55.61     2.65  UTA  DEN*     72.45     4        2754_DEN_2010
   14  Andersen    Billups     Hilario     Lawson      Smith       -105.85     1.95  UTA  DEN*   -123.08    -5        4900_DEN_2010
   15  Afflalo     Allen       Graham      Petro       Smith       -108.12     1.75  UTA  DEN*    -82.29    -3        6275_DEN_2010
   16  Afflalo     Andersen    Lawson      Petro       Smith        -17.61     1.72  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        6661_DEN_2010
   17  Anthony     Hilario     Lawson      Martin      Smith        132.15     1.53  UTA  DEN*    125.22     4        5896_DEN_2010
   18  Afflalo     Billups     Hilario     Lawson      Martin        37.36     1.45  UTA  DEN*     33.10     1        1825_DEN_2010
   19  Afflalo     Andersen    Billups     Martin      Smith         56.74     1.08  UTA  DEN*     44.31     1        5157_DEN_2010
   20  Afflalo     Hilario     Lawson      Martin      Smith        -75.04     1.08  UTA  DEN*    -88.62    -2        5889_DEN_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Carter      Hilario      -69.12     0.57  UTA  DEN*    -84.71    -1         364_DEN_2010
   22  Afflalo     Andersen    Billups     Hilario     Lawson       171.75     0.52  UTA  DEN*    184.03     2         805_DEN_2010
   23  Andersen    Anthony     Billups     Lawson      Martin       347.90     0.43  UTA  DEN*    332.31     3        1580_DEN_2010
   24  Afflalo     Billups     Hilario     Martin      Smith         11.16     0.32  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        5409_DEN_2010
   25  Afflalo     Andersen    Billups     Hilario     Smith        -14.66     0.15  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        4389_DEN_2010
   26  Billups     Hilario     Lawson      Martin      Smith         11.16     0.10  UTA  DEN*      0.00     0        5920_DEN_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      8.61   144.00                -0.67    -2
Key Adjusted +/- Ratings

These ratings give us an idea about what has driven the series results to date.

Nene +11 and Lawson +14 (+11 on offense) hav played well. Billups (-7) has been dominated by Williams (+11 rating, +14 on offense). Boozer (+7 on defense) has played poor defense while Fesenko (-10 on defense) has been a great defender. Korver (+16 offense) has been a real difference maker.

In 50 minutes Kristic is on against Bynum and Gasol, Thunder down 35 points.  When Ibaka is in and Kristic out  against Gasol and Bynum Thunder are +2 points in 12 minutes. They need to start Ibaka  (and maybe Collison) instead of Kristic (and maybe Green) and they could win series! Also Collison in agaist twin towers Thunder are +9 points in 14 minutes.

Durant on court against Kobe Thunder are down 4 points. But with Ibaka and Durant in against Kobe Thunder are +14 in 52 minutes.

The Thunder are giving the Lakers all they can handle. I really think the Thunder can take this series 7 games. For the series as a whole the Thunder has played nearly 8 points better than an average NBA team (all numbers are per48 minutes and adjusted for strength of opponent). Here are some key insights into the series:

• Thunder starting lineup of KD, Green, Kristic, Sefolosha, and Westbrook has been manhandled:  down 23 points in 43 minutes playing at -12.5 level,
• When KD is out Thunder are -11 points in 21 minutes (-24 rating).
• Rest of time the Thunder rock: 80 minutes +28 points, +30 rating.
• Ibaka should start instead of Kristic: When Ibaka is in with KD Thunder are +20 points in 55 minutes, +33 rating!
• The frontcourts of KD Harden and Collison ( 26 min +14 points +32 rating) and KD  Green and Collison (29 min +8 points +28 rating) have been great.
• Ibaka KD with any two of Collison, Green and Harden is great 45 min +30 rating +19 points.
• For the  Lakers Farmar (+8 Adjusted +/-) and Walton (+18 Adjusted +/- ) have played well but nobody else has made a big positive impact.
• For entire series Lakers have played 6 points better than average. Their starting lineup of Artest, Bynum. Bryant, Gasol and Fisher is +20 points in 61 minutes and has played 20 points better than average. Rest of the time the Lakers have played 5 points worse than average.

 

I have 250 exams to grade so I cannot do any more analysis for a while!

GO THUNDER!

In 2000 famed USA Today ratings guru Jeff Sagarin and I developed the concept of Adjusted +/- to help us evaluate NBA players and lineup combinations.  Throughout the playoffs we will use the lens of Adjusted +/- to reveal what’s really going on in the exciting playoffs.

Basically Adjusted +/- looks at how the score changes during every minute of the season and after adjusting for who a player plays with and against and who a lineup plays against we come up with a “rating” per 48 minutes. Here is a brief explanation of what the ratings mean:

1.     A point rating of +10 means we estimate a player to be 10 points (all numbers per 48 minutes) than an average player.

2.     An Offense rating of +10 means we estimate a player causes his team to score 10 points more than an average player.

3.     A Defense rating of -10 means we estimate a player causes  his team to give up 10 fewer points than an average player.

4.     A lineup rating of+10 means we estimate a lineup is 10 points better than an average NBA lineup.

Now let’s get to the fun part: Analyzing the Spurs-Mavs series!

 The Mavs problem is simple: When Dampier and Dirk are in, the Mavs play 6 points worse than average. When Haywood is in with Dirk,the Mavs play 21 points better than average.

In this series the Spurs have played 13 points better than average  series and the Mavs 7 points better than average. When Manu, Duncan, McDyess, and Jefferson are on the court with Hill or Parker the Spurs are +25 points in 38 minutes (playing 40 points better than average). This combo was also great in the regular season, so we see history repeating itself.

 

   The Spurs had problems with Bogans in (-12 points in 16 minutes) and Blair in for Duncan (excluding Bogans in with Blair -9 points in 16 minutes). In game 2 Bogans did not play so that issue was resolved. Spurs still need to do better with Duncan out. In regular season  Blair, Manu,Hill Mason and McDyess was ok (5 points better than average) so it might be worth a shot. In regular season Blair Manu Hill Jefferson and Bonner was great (35 points better than average) but this lineup has stumbled so far. I would try Blair Manu Parker Jefferson Bonner . This has been hardly used  (24 minutes in regular season, 3 points better than average), but it is worth a shot.

 

Here is a lineup summary: To read this, for example, Spurs lineup 1 has played 33 points better than average and has played 25 minutes and is +11 points. The other numbers are not really important. Note Spurs lineups 1 and 2 have dominated! Lineup 3 is solid with Bonner in for McDyess.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Duncan      Ginobili    Jefferson   McDyess     Parker        33.30    20.95  DAL  SAS*     25.20    11       12840_SAS_2010
    2  Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        Jefferson   McDyess       47.61    16.62  DAL  SAS*     40.44    14        4904_SAS_2010
    3  Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Jefferson   Parker        34.38     8.57  DAL  SAS*     22.43     4        8748_SAS_2010
    4  Duncan      Hill        Jefferson   McDyess     Parker        37.93     5.55  DAL  SAS*     25.95     3       13064_SAS_2010
    5  Blair       Bonner      Ginobili    Hill        Parker         1.41     5.46  DAL  SAS*     -8.77    -1        8485_SAS_2010
    6  Bogans      Duncan      Jefferson   Mason       Parker        -5.16     3.30  DAL  SAS*    -14.52    -1       10762_SAS_2010
    7  Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        Parker       -20.01     2.82  DAL  SAS*    -34.08    -2        8492_SAS_2010
    8  Blair       Bonner      Jefferson   Mason       Parker       -18.22     2.80  DAL  SAS*    -34.29    -2       10757_SAS_2010
    9  Bonner      Duncan      Hill        Jefferson   Parker        14.68     2.80  DAL  SAS*     17.18     1        8972_SAS_2010
   10  Bogans      Bonner      Duncan      Hill        Parker        -2.88     2.72  DAL  SAS*    -17.67    -1        8462_SAS_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        Jefferson     26.35     2.68  DAL  SAS*     17.89     1         812_SAS_2010
   12  Bogans      Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        McDyess     -115.79     2.37  DAL  SAS*   -121.69    -6        4394_SAS_2010
   13  Bogans      Duncan      Ginobili    McDyess     Parker         5.90     2.33  DAL  SAS*      0.00     0       12330_SAS_2010
   14  Blair       Bonner      Ginobili    Hill        Jefferson    -98.09     2.33  DAL  SAS*   -102.86    -5         805_SAS_2010
   15  Blair       Bonner      Hill        Mason       Parker        -7.93     2.00  DAL  SAS*    -24.00    -1       10501_SAS_2010
   16  Blair       Bogans      Ginobili    Jefferson   Mason       -124.01     2.00  DAL  SAS*   -120.00    -5        2595_SAS_2010
   17  Duncan      Ginobili    Mason       McDyess     Parker        87.60     1.82  DAL  SAS*     79.27     3       14376_SAS_2010
   18  Bogans      Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Mason        108.93     1.70  DAL  SAS*    112.94     4        2094_SAS_2010
   19  Blair       Bonner      Hill        Jefferson   Parker        64.45     1.58  DAL  SAS*     60.63     2        8965_SAS_2010
   20  Blair       Ginobili    Jefferson   McDyess     Parker      -148.36     1.22  DAL  SAS*   -157.81    -4       12833_SAS_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Bonner      Hill        Jefferson   McDyess     Parker      -148.18     1.18  DAL  SAS*   -162.25    -4       13060_SAS_2010
   22  Blair       Bonner      Jefferson   Mason       Temple        98.47     0.92  DAL  SAS*    104.73     2       68101_SAS_2010
   23  Bogans      Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Parker        19.64     0.73  DAL  SAS*      0.00     0        8238_SAS_2010
   24  Bogans      Bonner      Duncan      Jefferson   Parker      -227.22     0.58  DAL  SAS*   -246.86    -3        8718_SAS_2010
   25  Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        McDyess     Parker      -180.36     0.50  DAL  SAS*   -192.00    -2       12584_SAS_2010
   26  Blair       Bogans      Ginobili    Mason       Parker         0.51     0.46  DAL  SAS*      0.00     0       10275_SAS_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES     12.52    96.00                 4.00     8

end of file

 

DALLAS MAVERICKS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Dampier     Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Butler        -8.01    19.90  SAS  DAL*    -21.71    -9       66440_DAL_2010
    2  Kidd        Nowitzki    Terry       Butler      Haywood        0.47    18.15  SAS  DAL*    -13.20    -5      201344_DAL_2010
    3  Dampier     Kidd        Nowitzki    Terry       Butler         4.16    13.78  SAS  DAL*    -10.45    -3       70280_DAL_2010
    4  Dampier     Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry          8.62     8.50  SAS  DAL*     -0.01     0        5000_DAL_2010
    5  Barea       Marion      Nowitzki    Terry       Haywood        7.24     7.62  SAS  DAL*     -0.02     0      135937_DAL_2010
    6  Barea       Kidd        Marion      Butler      Haywood       -3.94     5.73  SAS  DAL*     -8.37    -1      196993_DAL_2010
    7  Barea       Nowitzki    Terry       Butler      Haywood       49.43     3.88  SAS  DAL*     37.08     3      201217_DAL_2010
    8  Kidd        Marion      Terry       Butler      Haywood       84.05     3.64  SAS  DAL*     79.12     6      201088_DAL_2010
    9  Dampier     Kidd        Marion      Najera      Butler        -1.52     2.85  SAS  DAL*    -16.84    -1       98696_DAL_2010
   10  Barea       Kidd        Marion      Terry       Haywood      110.31     2.33  SAS  DAL*    102.86     5      135553_DAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Dampier     Kidd        Terry       Najera      Butler        -8.65     2.12  SAS  DAL*    -22.68    -1      102536_DAL_2010
   12  Barea       Dampier     Kidd        Nowitzki    Butler        64.57     2.03  SAS  DAL*     70.82     3       66185_DAL_2010
   13  Barea       Dampier     Nowitzki    Terry       Butler      -165.04     1.85  SAS  DAL*   -181.62    -7       70153_DAL_2010
   14  Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Butler      Haywood      243.49     1.05  SAS  DAL*    228.57     5      197504_DAL_2010
   15  Barea       Terry       Najera      Butler      Haywood      -99.39     0.92  SAS  DAL*   -104.73    -2      233473_DAL_2010
   16  Barea       Dampier     Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    -197.27     0.50  SAS  DAL*   -192.00    -2         905_DAL_2010
   17  Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry       Butler       135.01     0.42  SAS  DAL*    115.20     1       70528_DAL_2010
   18  Kidd        Nowitzki    Terry       Najera      Butler         7.69     0.33  SAS  DAL*      0.00     0      103040_DAL_2010
   19  Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry       Haywood      376.57     0.27  SAS  DAL*    360.00     2      136064_DAL_2010
   20  Kidd        Marion      Terry       Haywood     Stevenson   -770.92     0.12  SAS  DAL*   -778.38    -2      397696_DAL_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      7.34    96.00                -4.00    -8

Adjusted +/- Highlights through Two Games

For Spurs Duncan has a +19 rating (-21 on defense).  McDyess

has -19 defense rating. Parker has played poorly on defense (+11 rating). Bogans  killed the offense: -40 offense rating.

For the Mavs Dampier has killed offense (-20 rating) and Haywood has had a +17 rating.

Again Adjusted +/- for two games has some degree of error but to paraphrase Bob Dylan it “tells us which way the wind is blowing.”

Despite being down 2-0, the Bulls have played well so far. The Bulls have played 6 points better than average per 48 minutes, after adjusting for home court and strength of players faced.

Here is when Bulls do badly.

• Deng out 17 min -13 points team plays 23 points worse than average.
• Miller Deng Noah frontcourt 17 min -12 pts Bulls play 14 points worse than average.
• Rest of time is great 62 minutes Bulls play 17 points better than average.

So what to do? Gibson Johnson Pargo Miller Hinrich was great in regular season.  This lineup has not yet been used in series. This lineup rests Noah Rose and Deng. Play it some and even if this lineup does badly you only get beat a few minutes and key guys are rested. Also frontcourt of Deng Miller and Gibson has been solid.: 11 minutes +2 points and Bulls play 28 points better than average with this frontcourt. GO BULLS!