So who was the best NBA player of the 2000-2010 decade? We will try to answer this question by using our Adjusted +/- and Impact Ratings. An Adjusted +/- of +10 points, menas that after adjusitng for the other players on the court, a player made his team 10 points better per 48 minutes than an avergae NBA player. Impact is similar, but based on how a player changes his team’s chances of winning (sort of like WPA in baseball).
I will not consider LeBron and Wade, because they did not play te whole decade (more on them later).
By far the 4 best players who played during the entire decade are Dirk, Kobe, Duncan and KG. Here are their numbers:
| Dirk | Dirk | Kobe | Kobe | KG | KG | Duncan | Duncan | |
| Points | Impact | Points | Impact | Points | Impact | Points | Impact | |
| Average | 10.4 | 27.6 | 8.7 | 21.3 | 10.7 | 24.5 | 10.7 | 25.9 |
| standard deviation | 2.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 23.1 | 5.1 | 14.8 |
| 1999-2000 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 18.0 | 9.5 | 23.0 |
| 2000-2001 | 12.7 | 35.0 | 12.7 | 28.0 | 6.7 | -2.0 | 10.2 | 21.0 |
| 2001-2002 | 10.3 | 31.0 | 9.6 | 26.0 | 8.4 | 20.0 | 14.3 | 39.0 |
| 2002-2003 | 14.8 | 38.0 | 10.4 | 37.0 | 23.2 | 61.0 | 20.1 | 50.0 |
| 2003-2004 | 10.7 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 16.3 | 34.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 2004-2005 | 11.6 | 25.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 36.0 | 14.3 | 36.0 |
| 2005-2006 | 10.8 | 33.0 | 13.7 | 23.0 | 9.7 | 19.0 | 9.2 | 34.0 |
| 2006-2007 | 7.7 | 20.0 | 10.8 | 20.0 | 19.0 | 61.0 | 15.0 | 33.0 |
| 2007-2008 | 8.6 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 31.0 | 11.7 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 |
| 2008-2009 | 7.9 | 28.0 | 6.9 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 29.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| 2009-2010 | 10.3 | 28.0 | 7.9 | 28.0 | -1.7 | -9.0 | 9.7 | 27.0 |
We see that Dirk, Duncan and KG are virtually tied. Note that Dirk’s standard deviation is much smaller than KG’s or Duncan’s. This tells us that Dirk’s performance thru the decade has been far more consistent than KG or Duncan, Kobe is a close 3rd. For all you Kobe lovers, do not forget that he has had great teammates during most of the decade (Shaq in his prime , and Odom, Gasol Artest at present).
This year Dirk leads the league at +18 points (Rose leads in Impact) while KG is at +9. Despite his outstanding PER rating Kobe’s Adjusted +/- this year is -12. Odom and Gasol have keyed virtually all the LAKER’S success this season. Duncan is at+5 I guess if you count this year we can declare Dirk the player of the decade by the slimmest of margins.
By the way LeBron has averaged +11 on points on +34 on Impact, so if you want you could call him the “Player of 2003-2010.” Wade has averaged 9 points and +27 Impact.
Could you explain impact a little more or refer me to an explanation?
Thanks
Comment by Italian Stallion — December 23, 2010 @ 8:26 pm
Adjusted +/- is based on how score changes with guys in game while impact is based on how your chance of winning changes. For example if your team is down 20 with trwo minutes to go and you lose by 5 players in game would “share” 15 points in Adjusted +/- calcs but since we had no chance to win game in Impact the 5 players would get no credit. Basically Impact ignores garbage time and weights clutch situtations more
Comment by wwinston — December 24, 2010 @ 8:19 am
Great thanks.
If you ever get around to any sort of discussion about Amare and the Knicks, could you also put in a blurb about Felton.
I was looking at some adj +/- numbers from another source and Felton looks horrible. That doesn’t hive with boxscore stats or my observation of the massive improvement he has been over Duhon.
Comment by Italian Stallion — December 24, 2010 @ 3:38 pm