Rank	Team	offense	defense	rating
1	San Antonio Spurs	4.25	-3.58	7.83
2	Los Angeles Clippers	6.63	-0.60	7.23
3	Oklahoma City Thunder	4.87	-1.89	6.76
4	Houston Rockets	6.16	0.59	5.57
5	Golden State Warriors	2.54	-2.41	4.95
6	Indiana Pacers	-3.31	-8.25	4.94
7	Miami Heat	2.78	-1.72	4.50
8	Portland Trail Blazers	6.31	1.82	4.49
9	Minnesota Timberwolves	5.27	2.06	3.22
10	Toronto Raptors	0.31	-2.69	2.99
11	Phoenix Suns	4.52	1.81	2.71
12	Dallas Mavericks	3.78	1.11	2.67
13	Memphis Grizzlies	-5.44	-7.58	2.14
14	Chicago Bulls	-7.97	-8.74	0.76
15	Washington Wizards	-0.15	-0.16	0.00
16	Atlanta Hawks	1.15	2.01	-0.87
17	Brooklyn Nets	-2.37	-1.27	-1.10
18	Charlotte Bobcats	-4.79	-3.43	-1.36
19	Sacramento Kings	0.50	2.23	-1.73
20	New Orleans Pelicans	-0.69	1.09	-1.78
21	Denver Nuggets	2.75	4.57	-1.82
22	New York Knicks	-2.25	-0.17	-2.09
23	Detroit Pistons	0.26	3.55	-3.30
24	Boston Celtics	-5.42	-1.05	-4.37
25	Cleveland Cavaliers	-3.43	1.25	-4.67
26	Los Angeles Lakers	1.47	7.20	-5.73
27	Orlando Magic	-4.20	1.67	-5.87
28	Utah Jazz	-6.47	-0.55	-5.92
29	Milwaukee Bucks	-5.27	3.24	-8.51
30	Philadelphia 76ers	-1.79	9.87	-11.66

Sweet 16

• Florida 64% chance UCLA 36%
• Stanford 58% Dayton 42%
• UVA 52% MSU 48%
• Iowa State 56% UCONN 44%
• Arizona 74% San Diego State 26%
• Wisconsin 61% Baylor 39%
• Louisville 66% UK 34%
• Michigan 53% Tenn 47%

Final Four Chances

South

Florida 50% UCLA 23% Stanford 17% Dayton 10%

 

East

UVA 31% MSU 27% Iowa State 24% UCONN 18%

Midwest

Ville 47% Michigan 21% Tenn 19%  UK 13%

West

Zona 46% Wisc 29% Baylor 16% SDS 9%

 

Chance to win title

• Zona 18%
• Ville 17%
• Florida 15%
• UVA 10%
• Wisconsin 7%
• MSU  and Michigan 6%
• UCLA 5%
• Iowa State and Tenn 4%
• Stanford and UK  2%
• SDS,  UCONN, Baylor 1%
• Dayton <1%

 

Team	offense	defense	rating
San Antonio Spurs	4.48	-3.03	7.51
Los Angeles Clippers	6.75	-0.71	7.47
Oklahoma City   Thunder	4.61	-2.07	6.68
Golden State   Warriors	2.62	-2.62	5.24
Houston Rockets	5.76	0.53	5.23
Indiana Pacers	-2.87	-8.08	5.21
Portland Trail Blazers	6.56	1.68	4.88
Miami Heat	3.23	-1.48	4.71
Minnesota   Timberwolves	5.20	1.33	3.88
Toronto Raptors	0.18	-2.78	2.96
Dallas Mavericks	3.65	0.95	2.70
Phoenix Suns	4.48	1.95	2.53
Memphis Grizzlies	-5.34	-7.08	1.74
Chicago Bulls	-7.76	-8.45	0.69
Washington Wizards	-0.33	-0.30	-0.03
Atlanta Hawks	1.47	2.05	-0.58
Brooklyn Nets	-2.84	-1.49	-1.35
Denver Nuggets	2.82	4.36	-1.55
Sacramento Kings	0.55	2.19	-1.64
Charlotte Bobcats	-5.00	-3.27	-1.72
New York Knicks	-2.03	-0.20	-1.83
New Orleans Pelicans	-1.03	1.11	-2.14
Detroit Pistons	0.03	3.83	-3.80
Boston Celtics	-5.49	-1.27	-4.22
Cleveland Cavaliers	-3.73	1.13	-4.86
Utah Jazz	-6.24	-0.64	-5.59
Los Angeles Lakers	1.48	7.18	-5.71
Orlando Magic	-3.99	1.84	-5.83
Milwaukee Bucks	-5.77	2.98	-8.74
Philadelphia 76ers	-1.46	10.36	-11.82

Here are game by game picks

NCAA 2014

 

East

Round 1

Florida beats Albany

Pitt over Colorado

VCU over SFA

UCLA over Tulsa

Ohio State over Dayton

Syracuse over Western Michigan

New Mexico over Stanford (close)

Kansas over Eastern Kentucky

Round 2

Florida over Pitt (close)

UCLA over VCU

Ohio State over Syracuse

Kansas over New Mexico

Round 3

Florida over UCLA

Kansas over Ohio State

Round 4

Florida over Kansas

 

South

Round 1

Virginia over Coastal Caroline

Memphis over George Washington (close)

Cincinnati over Harvard

Michigan State over Delaware

North Carolina over Providence

Iowa State over NC Central

UCONN over St. Joe’s

Villanova over Milwaukee

Round 2

Virginia over Memphis

Michigan State over Cincinnati

Iowa State over North Carolina

Villanova over UCONN

Round 3

Michigan State over Virginia

Villanova over Iowa State

Round 4

Michigan State over Villanova

 

 

 

West

Round 1

Arizona over Weber State

Ok. State over Gonzaga

Oklahoma over North Dakota

San Diego over New Mexico State

Baylor over Nebraska

Creighton over Louisiana Lafayette

Oregon over  BYU

Wisconsin over American

Round 2

Arizona over Ok. State

San Diego over Oklahoma

Creighton over Baylor

Wisconsin over Oregon

Round 3

Arizona over San Diego

Wisconsin over Creighton

Round 4

Arizona over Wisconsin

 

 

 

Midwest

Round 1

Wichita over Cal Poly

Kentucky over Kansas State

St. Louis over NC State

Louisville over Manhattan

Iowa/Tennessee winner (probably Iowa) over UMASS

Duke over Mercer

ASU over Texas

Michigan over Wofford

Round 2

Wichita over Kentucky

Louisville over St. Louis

Duke over Iowa/Tennessee

Michigan over ASU

Round 3

Louisville over Wichita

Duke over Michigan

Round 4

Louisville over Duke

Final 4

Florida over Michigan State

Arizona over Louisville

Champion Arizona

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Based on my friend and colleague’s Sagarin ratings, here are my odds on teams winning each region, semis and championship. I only listed teams with at least a 1% chance. I also believe the regions are of relatively equal strength, despite what some commentators said.

South  Region

Team	Chance
Florida	27.60%
Kansas	22.50%
UCLA	11.80%
Ohio state	9.90%
Syracuse	8.40%
Pitt	6.60%
VCU	6.30%
New Mexico	2.70%
Stanford	2.10%

 

 

 

East Region

Team	Chance
Vill	25.20%
Virginia	23.10%
Mich St.	18.70%
Iowa St	14.60%
UCONN	5.00%
Cinn	3.90%
UNC	2.70%
Providence	2.40%
Harvard	1.50%
Memphis	1.30%

Midwest Region

Team	Chance
Louisville	36.30%
Duke	17.10%
Michigan	15.20%
Wichita	12.80%
UK	4.90%
Iowa	3.00%
Tenn	2.70%
ASU	2.20%
St. Louis	1.30%
Kans. St	1.20%
Texas	1.20%

 

West Region

Team	Chance
Arizona	42.10%
Creighton	15.20%
Wisc	15.10%
San Diego St	6.20%
Ok St.	5.20%
Oklahoma	4.30%
Baylor	3.90%
Oregon	3.70%
Gonzaga	2.60%

 

Semifinal 1

Team	Chance
Vill	14.50%
Florida	14.10%
Virginia	13.00%
Kansas	12.20%
Mich St.	9.40%
Iowa St	7.20%
UCLA	5.40%
Ohio state	5.00%
Syracuse	4.80%
Pitt	3.20%
VCU	2.70%
UCONN	1.70%
UNC	1.30%
Cinn	1.10%

 

Semifinal 2

Team	Chance
Arizona	23.60%
Louisville	20.60%
Duke	8.50%
Wisc	8.10%
Michigan	7.10%
Creighton	6.80%
Wichita	5.60%
UK	3.20%
San Diego St	3.10%
Ok St.	2.40%
Baylor	1.90%
Oklahoma	1.70%
Gonzaga	1.50%
Iowa	1.30%

 

 

Championship

Team	Chance
Arizona	18.10%
Louisville	10.90%
Florida	7.70%
Virginia	7.30%
Kansas	6.80%
Vill	6.50%
Mich St.	5.10%
Duke	3.90%
Iowa St	3.70%
Michigan	3.60%
Wisc	3.20%
Wichita	2.90%
Creighton	2.50%
Ohio state	2.30%
UK	1.50%
Syracuse	1.40%
Ok St.	1.40%
UCLA	1.30%
San Diego St	1.20%

 

 

Rank	Team	offense	defense	rating
1	Los Angeles Clippers	7.13	-0.47	7.60
2	San Antonio Spurs	4.12	-3.28	7.40
3	Oklahoma City Thunder	5.01	-1.97	6.98
4	Indiana Pacers	-2.64	-8.13	5.48
5	Golden State Warriors	2.61	-2.57	5.19
6	Portland Trail Blazers	6.43	1.34	5.09
7	Houston Rockets	5.58	0.63	4.95
8	Miami Heat	3.33	-1.49	4.82
9	Minnesota Timberwolves	5.11	1.17	3.94
10	Toronto Raptors	-0.18	-3.32	3.14
11	Phoenix Suns	4.37	1.87	2.50
12	Dallas Mavericks	3.58	1.21	2.37
13	Memphis Grizzlies	-5.22	-6.71	1.49
14	Chicago Bulls	-7.51	-8.34	0.82
15	Washington Wizards	-0.39	-0.41	0.02
16	Atlanta Hawks	1.46	2.39	-0.93
17	Brooklyn Nets	-2.93	-1.40	-1.53
18	Charlotte Bobcats	-4.82	-3.28	-1.54
19	Sacramento Kings	0.48	2.26	-1.77
20	Denver Nuggets	2.90	4.70	-1.81
21	New Orleans Pelicans	-1.32	0.70	-2.02
22	New York Knicks	-2.13	0.05	-2.18
23	Detroit Pistons	-0.03	3.60	-3.63
24	Boston Celtics	-5.79	-1.27	-4.52
25	Cleveland Cavaliers	-3.40	1.40	-4.80
26	Utah Jazz	-6.25	-1.04	-5.21
27	Los Angeles Lakers	1.43	7.04	-5.61
28	Orlando Magic	-3.81	1.98	-5.79
29	Milwaukee Bucks	-6.00	2.69	-8.69
30	Philadelphia 76ers	-1.13	10.64	-11.77

Clippers maintain #1 with Pacers in free fall to #4

Rank	Team	offense	defense	rating
1	Los Angeles Clippers	7.35	-0.35	7.70
2	San Antonio Spurs	3.83	-3.22	7.05
3	Oklahoma City Thunder	4.90	-2.06	6.96
4	Indiana Pacers	-2.33	-8.11	5.78
5	Golden State Warriors	2.82	-2.59	5.41
6	Houston Rockets	5.76	0.36	5.40
7	Portland Trail Blazers	6.54	1.17	5.38
8	Miami Heat	3.84	-1.46	5.29
9	Minnesota Timberwolves	5.31	0.86	4.45
10	Toronto Raptors	-0.26	-3.09	2.83
11	Phoenix Suns	4.71	1.94	2.77
12	Dallas Mavericks	3.72	1.28	2.44
13	Memphis Grizzlies	-5.41	-6.61	1.19
14	Chicago Bulls	-7.81	-8.11	0.31
15	Washington Wizards	-0.27	-0.50	0.24
16	Atlanta Hawks	1.29	2.33	-1.03
17	Sacramento Kings	0.91	2.47	-1.56
18	Charlotte Bobcats	-4.98	-3.10	-1.88
19	New Orleans Pelicans	-1.22	0.72	-1.94
20	Brooklyn Nets	-2.98	-0.98	-2.01
21	Denver Nuggets	2.50	4.52	-2.02
22	New York Knicks	-2.69	0.06	-2.75
23	Detroit Pistons	0.09	3.74	-3.65
24	Boston Celtics	-5.56	-1.35	-4.22
25	Utah Jazz	-6.27	-1.00	-5.27
26	Cleveland Cavaliers	-3.62	1.68	-5.29
27	Los Angeles Lakers	1.46	6.76	-5.30
28	Orlando Magic	-4.25	1.42	-5.67
29	Milwaukee Bucks	-6.35	2.64	-8.99
30	Philadelphia 76ers	-1.03	10.58	-11.60

The Clippers surge to Number 1!

Rank	Team	offense	defense	rating
1	Los Angeles Clippers	7.12	0.15	6.97
2	Indiana Pacers	-1.78	-8.67	6.90
3	Oklahoma City Thunder	4.45	-2.33	6.78
4	San Antonio Spurs	3.47	-3.04	6.50
5	Miami Heat	3.83	-1.71	5.54
6	Portland Trail Blazers	7.21	1.78	5.44
7	Golden State Warriors	2.76	-2.33	5.09
8	Houston Rockets	5.80	0.90	4.90
9	Minnesota Timberwolves	5.07	0.28	4.79
10	Phoenix Suns	4.35	1.63	2.72
11	Toronto Raptors	-0.05	-2.75	2.70
12	Dallas Mavericks	3.80	1.39	2.41
13	Memphis Grizzlies	-5.55	-6.51	0.96
14	Chicago Bulls	-7.67	-8.04	0.37
15	Washington Wizards	-0.34	-0.66	0.31
16	Atlanta Hawks	1.55	2.20	-0.65
17	Sacramento Kings	1.18	2.88	-1.70
18	New Orleans Pelicans	-1.48	0.50	-1.98
19	Denver Nuggets	1.72	3.85	-2.13
20	Charlotte Bobcats	-5.59	-3.42	-2.18
21	Brooklyn Nets	-2.87	-0.60	-2.27
22	New York Knicks	-2.82	0.31	-3.13
23	Detroit Pistons	0.35	3.93	-3.58
24	Boston Celtics	-5.22	-1.14	-4.08
25	Utah Jazz	-5.82	-1.22	-4.61
26	Los Angeles Lakers	0.97	5.74	-4.77
27	Cleveland Cavaliers	-3.54	1.47	-5.01
28	Orlando Magic	-3.66	1.94	-5.60
29	Milwaukee Bucks	-6.79	2.52	-9.31
30	Philadelphia 76ers	-0.47	10.91	-11.38