mathletics

Laker 2010-2011 Forecast 65-17

wwinston — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 18:56:11 +0000

Yesterday we predicted the Heat to be 66-16 next season. Applying our Adjusted +/- ratings for the Laker’s players from last season and using last season’s minutes played (adjusted in Blake’s case) we get a projected record for the Lakers of 65-17! As you can see below, Blake and Barnes are two great pickups. They are easily superior to Brown and Farmar. The predicted wins is based on the well-known Puthagorean formula that converts points better than average (in this case 10) to games one. Looks like these teams will be well-matched, if they make it to the finals. As the Celtics showed this year, nobody should take a finals trip as a given!

Player	Min	Rating
Kobe	34	7.9
Gasol	29	1.1
Artest	32	2.9
Bynum	22	-2.5
Odom	32	3.1
Blake	19	0.6
Barnes	26	3.2
Powell	7	-11.7
Mbenga	4	-3.2
Sasha	7	0.4
Fisher	28	1.4

Revised Heat Forecast

wwinston — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 03:04:59 +0000

The Heat have pretty much filled out their roster. I assumed that players play the same number of minutes as they did last year and play at the same Adjusted +/- level of performance as last year, I predict 66-16 for the Heat.

World Cup Final Ratings

wwinston — Sun, 11 Jul 2010 21:45:38 +0000

I am so sorry Holland lost! Oh well there is always 2014 for USA and Holland. Here are final ratings based on 3 years of scores. I switched to multiplicative ratings, because they fit the data a little better. So Spain is number 1 and they are 60% better than average on offense and give up an amazing 26% as many goals as an average World Cup team. Spain against an average World Cup Team would be favored by 1.73 goals.

Rank	Team	off	def	Rating
1	SPAIN	1.600491	0.263129	1.725197
2	GERMANY	1.919907	0.642235	1.648196
3	BRAZIL	1.62212	0.586247	1.336277
4	ARGENTINA	1.629185	0.726732	1.164165
5	PORTUGAL	1.738073	0.863527	1.128164
6	NETHERLANDS	1.490696	0.70737	1.01049
7	ENGLAND	1.255286	0.884191	0.478713
8	URUGUAY	1.454914	1.173513	0.363007
9	Ghana	1.074044	0.846387	0.293678
11	SERBIA	1.005404	0.812412	0.24896
10	USA	1.319989	1.147684	0.222274
12	SLOVENIA	1.118327	0.970938	0.190132
13	NIGERIA	0.936766	0.856503	0.10354
15	PARAGUAY	0.627982	0.579474	0.062575
14	IVORY COAST	1.096652	1.086852	0.012642
16	JAPAN	0.90484	0.915593	-0.01387
17	ITALY	0.987418	1.055464	-0.08778
18	MEXICO	1.04973	1.128346	-0.10141
19	FRANCE	0.755251	0.852958	-0.12604
20	AUSTRALIA	1.02993	1.177421	-0.19026
21	CHILE	0.865393	1.133278	-0.34557
22	DENMARK	0.975721	1.274835	-0.38586
23	SWITZERLAND	0.707354	1.056961	-0.45099
24	Algeria	0.500465	0.893977	-0.50763
25	S AFRICA	0.817119	1.256286	-0.56653
27	GREECE	0.656337	1.14963	-0.63635
26	CAMEROON	0.748367	1.249829	-0.64689
28	HONDURAS	-0.58351	-0.07734	-0.65295
29	SOUTH KOREA	0.768098	1.311454	-0.70093
30	SLOVAKIA	0.891648	1.455771	-0.72772
31	NEW ZEALAND	0.623655	1.763189	-1.47
32	NORTH Korea	0.412345	2.255155	-2.37722

WORLD CUP FINAL FORECAST

wwinston — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 23:01:09 +0000

I want Netherlands to win so badly but my model predicts Spain 2 Netherlands 1 in overtime. Spain has 57% chance to win.

Are the Heat a Lock?

wwinston — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 02:40:02 +0000

Well LeBron, Bosh and wade are on the Heat. Are the Heat a lock to win the NBA title. Let’s try and figure out how good this team will be next year. Based on our Adjusted +/- Ratings we project for 2010-2011 (all player ratings are per 48 minutes.)

Wade and LeBron each play 11 points better than average. Assume 36 minutes each (most guys get hurt a few games)
Bosh will play 5 points better than average . 36 minutes
Chalmer 4 points worse than average. 24 minutes
Beasley 4 points worse than average. 30 minutes
The key is in remaining 78 minutes how well will rest of roster play. Let’s try out 2 points thru 6 points worse than average.

Here are projected wins:

Average Ability	Projected Wins
Rest of team	Wins
-2	68
-3	66
-4	63
-5	59
-6	56

To me the most likely case is rest of roster plays like Chalmers and Beasley (-4). Then we project 63-19 record for Heat which is probably a team good enough to win the East and play the Lakers in a great 7 game series.

World Cup Semis

wwinston — Sat, 03 Jul 2010 20:50:57 +0000

Chances of winning cup

Germany 35.6%
Spain 27%
Netherlands 24.8%
Uruguay 12.6%

Semifinal predictions

NETHERLANDS 2 URUGUAY 1 NETHERLANDS 61% CHANCE TO ADVANCE

GERMANY 1 SPAIN 1 GERMANY WINS ON PENALTY KICKS GERMANY 56% CHANCE OF ADVANCING

World Cup Picks July 3rd

wwinston — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 22:15:28 +0000

What a day for soccer! Dram to equal anything I have seen. Go Netherlands. Here are tomorrow’s picks.

SPAIN 1 PARAGUAY 0 SPAIN 80% CHANCE TO ADVANCE

GERMANY 1 ARGENTINA 1 ARGENTINA ADVANCES ON PENALTY KICKS 56% CHANCE ARGENTINA ADVANCES

WORLD CUP PICKS JULY 2

wwinston — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 11:11:28 +0000

URUGUAY 2 GHANA 1 61% CHANCE URUGUAY ADVANCES

BRAZIL 2 NETHERLANDS 1 65% CHANCE BRAZIL ADVANCES

World Cup Rankings and Odds

wwinston — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 22:34:38 +0000

Here are my rankings and odds for the Final 8! For example, Brazil is .99 goals better than average on offense, .63 goals better than average on defense and 1.62 goals better than average overall. Brazil has 27% chance to win the World Cup.

Rank	Team	off	def	Rating	Chance
1	BRAZIL	0.99	-0.63	1.62	0.27
2	ARGENTINA	0.72	-0.76	1.49	0.2
3	SPAIN	0.70	-0.63	1.33	0.18
4	GERMANY	0.69	-0.49	1.18	0.12
5	NETHERLANDS	0.46	-0.49	0.96	0.09
7	URUGUAY	0.41	-0.31	0.72	0.08
12	GHANA	0.11	-0.12	0.23	0.03
13	PARAGUAY	-0.32	-0.54	0.22	0.03

World Cup Picks June 29

wwinston — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 21:59:12 +0000

PARAGUAY 1 JAPAN 1 PARAGUAY ADVANCES ON PENALTY KICKS PARAGUAY 55% CHANCE OF ADVANCING.

SPAIN 2 PORTUGAL 1 SPAIN 78% CHANCE OF ADVANCING.