February 6, 2016

NBA Ratings February 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:45 am
Rank Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
1 San Antonio Spurs 3.22 -9.64 12.87 6 1
2 Golden State Warriors 13.66 2.77 10.89 1 22
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 7.41 1.03 6.38 2 19
4 Boston Celtics 3.59 -1.24 4.84 5 10
5 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.00 -4.17 4.16 15 4
6 Los Angeles Clippers 2.18 -1.96 4.14 7 8
7 Toronto Raptors 0.42 -3.23 3.65 13 6
8 Indiana Pacers 1.16 -0.85 2.01 10 12
9 Detroit Pistons 0.03 -1.96 1.99 14 7
10 Atlanta Hawks -0.07 -1.79 1.72 16 9
11 Utah Jazz -5.34 -6.60 1.26 29 2
12 Portland Trail Blazers 2.04 1.02 1.01 9 18
13 Houston Rockets 5.08 4.47 0.61 4 28
14 Chicago Bulls -0.09 -0.60 0.50 17 13
15 Miami Heat -5.29 -5.23 -0.06 27 3
16 Memphis Grizzlies -4.37 -3.64 -0.73 24 5
17 Denver Nuggets 0.53 1.35 -0.82 12 21
18 Dallas Mavericks -1.92 -0.97 -0.95 21 11
19 Charlotte Hornets -1.16 0.02 -1.18 18 15
20 Sacramento Kings 5.11 6.52 -1.42 3 30
21 Orlando Magic -2.03 -0.35 -1.68 22 14
22 Washington Wizards 2.09 4.02 -1.92 8 26
23 New York Knicks -2.47 0.08 -2.55 23 16
24 New Orleans Pelicans 0.91 3.47 -2.56 11 25
25 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.57 3.21 -4.78 20 23
26 Phoenix Suns -1.34 4.03 -5.36 19 27
27 Milwaukee Bucks -4.59 0.90 -5.50 25 17
28 Brooklyn Nets -5.33 1.26 -6.59 28 20
29 Philadelphia 76ers -5.27 4.68 -9.95 26 29
30 Los Angeles Lakers -6.58 3.40 -9.98 30 24

January 31, 2016

NBA Ratings Jan 31

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 12:09 pm

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

3.02

-10.23

13.25

6

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.98

3.07

9.91

1

22

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.45

1.04

6.41

2

17

4

Boston Celtics

3.70

-1.00

4.70

5

13

5

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-4.32

4.32

15

4

6

Toronto Raptors

0.70

-3.54

4.24

12

5

7

Los Angeles Clippers

2.22

-1.51

3.73

8

9

8

Indiana Pacers

1.09

-1.39

2.48

11

11

9

Detroit Pistons

0.02

-2.14

2.16

14

7

10

Chicago Bulls

-0.09

-1.84

1.74

16

8

11

Atlanta Hawks

-0.14

-1.47

1.34

17

10

12

Utah Jazz

-4.91

-5.87

0.96

27

2

13

Portland Trail Blazers

1.74

1.53

0.20

9

20

14

Houston Rockets

4.43

4.58

-0.14

4

28

15

Miami Heat

-5.45

-5.12

-0.33

28

3

16

Dallas Mavericks

-1.37

-0.90

-0.47

20

14

17

Memphis Grizzlies

-4.06

-3.36

-0.70

24

6

18

Charlotte Hornets

-0.81

0.06

-0.87

18

15

19

Orlando Magic

-2.11

-1.06

-1.05

23

12

20

Washington Wizards

2.61

3.86

-1.25

7

26

21

Sacramento Kings

4.57

6.23

-1.66

3

30

22

Denver Nuggets

0.18

2.00

-1.82

13

21

23

New Orleans Pelicans

1.28

3.13

-1.84

10

23

24

New York Knicks

-1.98

0.19

-2.17

21

16

25

Phoenix Suns

-1.33

3.92

-5.25

19

27

26

Minnesota Timberwolves

-1.98

3.35

-5.33

22

24

27

Milwaukee Bucks

-4.31

1.18

-5.49

25

19

28

Brooklyn Nets

-6.15

1.10

-7.25

29

18

29

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.64

4.70

-9.34

26

29

30

Los Angeles Lakers

-6.65

3.81

-10.46

30

25

January 23, 2016

NBA Ratings Jan 23

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:22 am
Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
San Antonio Spurs 2.51 -11.73 14.24 6 1
Golden State   Warriors 12.41 2.80 9.61 1 23
Oklahoma City   Thunder 7.27 -0.38 7.65 2 12
Los Angeles Clippers 3.01 -1.10 4.11 5 10
Detroit Pistons 0.03 -3.22 3.25 11 6
Boston Celtics 2.33 -0.36 2.70 7 13
Toronto Raptors -0.79 -3.29 2.50 22 5
Indiana Pacers 1.16 -0.78 1.94 9 11
Atlanta Hawks 0.02 -1.72 1.73 12 8
Cleveland Cavaliers 1.00 0.00 1.00 10 16
Charlotte Hornets -0.35 -1.19 0.84 17 9
Chicago Bulls 0.01 -0.24 0.25 14 14
Utah Jazz -5.00 -5.22 0.22 27 2
Orlando Magic -2.41 -2.20 -0.20 24 7
Houston Rockets 3.21 3.70 -0.49 4 27
Dallas Mavericks -0.73 0.00 -0.73 21 15
Miami Heat -5.84 -4.96 -0.89 29 3
Portland Trail Blazers 1.16 2.23 -1.06 8 21
Sacramento Kings 4.09 5.48 -1.39 3 30
Memphis Grizzlies -4.99 -3.48 -1.52 26 4
New York Knicks -1.49 0.08 -1.57 23 17
Denver Nuggets -0.43 1.52 -1.95 18 20
Minnesota   Timberwolves -0.43 2.59 -3.02 19 22
Washington Wizards 0.00 3.14 -3.14 15 24
New Orleans Pelicans 0.01 3.58 -3.56 13 25
Phoenix Suns -0.60 3.63 -4.23 20 26
Los Angeles Lakers 0.00 4.28 -4.28 16 28
Milwaukee Bucks -3.84 0.78 -4.62 25 18
Brooklyn Nets -6.00 1.27 -7.27 30 19
Philadelphia 76ers -5.32 4.80 -10.11 28 29

January 19, 2016

NFL Exponential Smoothing Ratings Jan 19

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:38 pm

These ratings give more weight to more recent games and some weight to preseason Vegas over under win totals.

 

RANK TEAM RATING
1 SEA 10.9
2 CAR 9.8
3 KC 8.2
4 ARI 8.2
5 CINN 7.6
6 PITT 6.9
7 NE 6.1
8 MINN 5.7
9 DEN 4.7
10 GB 4.6
11 JETS 2.8
12 BUFF 1.7
13 WASH 0
14 DET -0.2
15 HOU -0.6
16 STL -1.5
17 OAK -2.4
18 GIANTS -2.5
19 ATL -2.6
20 BALT -3.1
21 SD -3.2
22 PHI -3.2
23 CHI -3.3
24 NO -3.6
25 DALL -4
26 MIA -4.3
27 INDY -4.9
28 SF -6
29 TAMPA -6.3
30 CLE -6.6
31 JACK -6.7
32 TENN -10.5

NFL Ratings January 19

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:36 pm

These ratings give each game of the season equal weight.

 

Rank Teams Off Def Rating
1 Arizona Cardinals 7.52 -2.69 10.22
2 Seattle Seahawks 3.88 -5.24 9.13
3 Cincinnati Bengals 3.51 -5.01 8.52
4 Kansas City Chiefs 3.31 -5.13 8.44
5 Carolina Panthers 6.05 -2.02 8.08
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 3.86 -3.30 7.16
7 New England Patriots 5.04 -1.86 6.90
8 Green Bay Packers 2.00 -2.96 4.96
9 Denver Broncos -0.01 -4.84 4.82
10 Minnesota Vikings 0.22 -4.52 4.74
11 New York Jets -0.04 -2.00 1.96
12 Buffalo Bills 0.47 0.06 0.41
13 Oakland Raiders 1.03 1.62 -0.59
14 Detroit Lions 0.76 1.44 -0.68
15 St. Louis Rams -3.61 -2.75 -0.86
16 Houston Texans -3.41 -2.09 -1.31
17 Baltimore Ravens 0.00 1.53 -1.53
18 Chicago Bears -0.27 1.36 -1.63
19 Washington Redskins -0.05 1.85 -1.90
20 New York Giants 2.45 5.13 -2.69
21 San Diego Chargers -1.46 1.24 -2.71
22 Atlanta Falcons -3.19 -0.44 -2.75
23 Philadelphia Eagles -0.30 3.41 -3.71
24 New Orleans Saints 1.21 6.53 -5.33
25 Indianapolis Colts -2.42 3.01 -5.42
26 Miami Dolphins -3.89 1.68 -5.57
27 San Francisco 49ers -5.58 0.01 -5.60
28 Dallas Cowboys -5.93 -0.08 -5.85
29 Cleveland Browns -3.14 2.93 -6.07
30 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.34 5.74 -6.08
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.76 3.51 -6.27
32 Tennessee Titans -4.90 3.89 -8.79

January 17, 2016

NBA Ratings Jan 17

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:10 am

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

1.82

-11.69

13.51

7

1

2

Golden State Warriors

11.96

3.56

8.40

1

25

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

6.96

0.24

6.71

2

17

4

Los Angeles Clippers

2.96

-1.39

4.35

5

10

5

Detroit Pistons

-0.94

-3.90

2.96

20

4

6

Boston Celtics

1.97

-0.95

2.92

6

13

7

Indiana Pacers

1.13

-1.41

2.55

11

9

8

Toronto Raptors

-1.19

-3.42

2.23

21

5

9

Cleveland Cavaliers

1.47

0.00

1.47

8

14

10

Chicago Bulls

0.01

-1.33

1.34

14

11

11

Charlotte Hornets

-0.50

-1.83

1.33

18

8

12

Atlanta Hawks

1.17

0.16

1.01

10

16

13

Utah Jazz

-5.53

-6.11

0.58

28

2

14

Miami Heat

-4.00

-4.43

0.42

26

3

15

Orlando Magic

-1.89

-1.96

0.07

23

7

16

Houston Rockets

3.00

3.16

-0.16

4

24

17

Dallas Mavericks

-0.84

0.02

-0.87

19

15

18

Portland Trail Blazers

1.19

2.30

-1.11

9

21

19

New York Knicks

-2.53

-1.11

-1.42

24

12

20

Memphis Grizzlies

-5.27

-3.41

-1.86

27

6

21

Denver Nuggets

-1.27

0.85

-2.12

22

18

22

Sacramento Kings

4.48

7.10

-2.61

3

30

23

Minnesota Timberwolves

-0.04

3.06

-3.10

17

22

24

Washington Wizards

-0.01

3.11

-3.12

16

23

25

Phoenix Suns

0.49

3.87

-3.38

12

27

26

Los Angeles Lakers

0.00

3.86

-3.86

15

26

27

New Orleans Pelicans

0.01

3.97

-3.95

13

28

28

Milwaukee Bucks

-3.05

1.99

-5.03

25

20

29

Brooklyn Nets

-5.98

1.10

-7.08

30

19

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-5.58

4.59

-10.18

29

29

January 11, 2016

NFL Ratings Jan 11

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:13 am
Rank Teams Off Def Rating
1 Arizona Cardinals 7.69 -2.67 10.37
2 Seattle Seahawks 3.83 -5.56 9.40
3 Kansas City Chiefs 3.42 -5.28 8.70
4 Cincinnati Bengals 3.54 -5.04 8.59
5 Carolina Panthers 5.69 -2.06 7.75
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 4.09 -3.41 7.51
7 New England Patriots 4.84 -1.72 6.56
8 Green Bay Packers 2.05 -2.80 4.85
9 Minnesota Vikings 0.22 -4.52 4.74
10 Denver Broncos -0.01 -4.60 4.58
11 New York Jets -0.04 -1.96 1.92
12 Buffalo Bills 0.44 0.06 0.38
13 Oakland Raiders 1.03 1.60 -0.57
14 Detroit Lions 0.74 1.42 -0.67
15 St. Louis Rams -3.56 -2.77 -0.78
16 Houston Texans -3.39 -2.06 -1.34
17 Baltimore Ravens 0.00 1.48 -1.48
18 Chicago Bears -0.29 1.34 -1.63
19 Washington Redskins -0.05 1.87 -1.92
20 San Diego Chargers -1.48 1.20 -2.68
21 New York Giants 2.42 5.15 -2.73
22 Atlanta Falcons -3.19 -0.36 -2.82
23 Philadelphia Eagles -0.33 3.43 -3.76
24 New Orleans Saints 1.19 6.54 -5.35
25 Indianapolis Colts -2.44 3.01 -5.45
26 San Francisco 49ers -5.53 0.01 -5.54
27 Miami Dolphins -3.89 1.70 -5.60
28 Dallas Cowboys -5.92 -0.08 -5.84
29 Cleveland Browns -3.10 2.87 -5.97
30 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.34 5.75 -6.10
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.76 3.54 -6.30
32 Tennessee Titans -4.90 3.91 -8.81

NBA ratings January 11

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:06 am

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

1.52

-11.63

13.15

9

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.03

2.73

9.30

1

22

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.03

0.34

6.68

2

17

4

Los Angeles Clippers

3.03

-0.97

4.00

5

13

5

Indiana Pacers

1.64

-1.25

2.89

6

12

6

Detroit Pistons

-1.03

-3.75

2.72

21

5

7

Boston Celtics

1.10

-1.28

2.38

11

11

8

Toronto Raptors

-1.28

-3.50

2.22

22

6

9

Chicago Bulls

0.01

-1.85

1.86

14

10

10

Charlotte Hornets

-0.30

-1.88

1.58

18

9

11

Utah Jazz

-4.96

-6.48

1.52

27

2

12

Cleveland Cavaliers

1.51

0.00

1.51

10

14

13

Atlanta Hawks

1.63

0.18

1.45

7

16

14

Miami Heat

-3.97

-4.90

0.92

26

3

15

Orlando Magic

-2.03

-2.27

0.24

23

7

16

Dallas Mavericks

-0.47

0.02

-0.49

19

15

17

Portland Trail Blazers

1.63

2.18

-0.55

8

20

18

New York Knicks

-3.13

-1.88

-1.25

24

8

19

Houston Rockets

3.03

4.82

-1.79

4

29

20

Memphis Grizzlies

-5.79

-3.90

-1.89

29

4

21

Denver Nuggets

-0.85

1.10

-1.95

20

18

22

Phoenix Suns

0.90

3.52

-2.62

12

24

23

Sacramento Kings

4.33

7.12

-2.79

3

30

24

Minnesota Timberwolves

-0.03

3.10

-3.14

17

23

25

Washington Wizards

-0.01

3.69

-3.70

16

25

26

New Orleans Pelicans

0.01

4.12

-4.11

13

27

27

Los Angeles Lakers

0.00

4.12

-4.12

15

26

28

Milwaukee Bucks

-3.76

2.61

-6.37

25

21

29

Brooklyn Nets

-5.59

1.12

-6.71

28

19

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-6.23

4.73

-10.96

30

28

January 4, 2016

Exponential Smoothing Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:04 am

Here I started with team ratings based on Vegas preseason over under wins. Then I used exponential smoothing with alpha=.10 to update ratings. for example, if a team was favored by 10 in a game and won by 20, their rating would increase by .1*(20-10) = 1 point. This method gives more weight to more recent games. For example weight for last week’s game = .9*weight for current game. With these ratings I cannot predict the score of a game. only margin of victory. NFC is looking tough with top 3 teams.  These ratings seem consistent with the late season declines of NE, GB, DEN, and CINN. They also show the great improvement made by teams like the Lions and Seahawks. I will use these ratings  to estimate playoff probabilities by tomorrow.

 

RANK TEAM RATING
1 SEA 11.7
2 CAR 9.2
3 ARI 8.3
4 PITT 7.2
5 CINN 6.3
6 KC 6.1
7 MINN 5.5
8 NE 5.3
9 DEN 3.9
10 JETS 2.8
11 GB 2.6
12 HOU 2.3
13 WASH 2
14 BUFF 1.7
15 DET -0.2
16 STL -1.5
17 OAK -2.4
18 GIANTS -2.5
19 ATL -2.6
20 BALT -3.1
21 SD -3.2
22 PHI -3.2
23 CHI -3.3
24 NO -3.6
25 DALL -4
26 MIA -4.3
27 INDY -4.9
28 SF -6
29 TAMPA -6.3
30 CLE -6.6
31 JACK -6.7
32 TENN -10.5

NFL Ratings Jan 4

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:48 am

These ratings count every game of the season equally and are based on minimizing the sum of the squared errors in predicting each team’s score in each game.

 

Rank

Teams

Off

Def

Rating

1

Arizona Cardinals

7.72

-2.81

10.53

2

Seattle Seahawks

4.45

-5.13

9.58

3

Cincinnati Bengals

3.97

-5.08

9.06

4

Carolina Panthers

5.81

-2.20

8.01

5

Kansas City Chiefs

2.98

-4.56

7.54

6

Pittsburgh Steelers

4.22

-3.07

7.29

7

New England Patriots

4.96

-1.85

6.81

8

Denver Broncos

-0.03

-4.66

4.63

9

Minnesota Vikings

0.66

-3.94

4.60

10

Green Bay Packers

1.36

-2.71

4.07

11

New York Jets

-0.03

-2.10

2.07

12

Buffalo Bills

0.45

0.05

0.39

13

Houston Texans

-2.66

-2.58

-0.09

14

Oakland Raiders

0.84

1.66

-0.81

15

St. Louis Rams

-3.75

-2.94

-0.82

16

Detroit Lions

0.58

1.47

-0.89

17

Washington Redskins

0.10

1.31

-1.20

18

Baltimore Ravens

0.00

1.45

-1.45

19

Chicago Bears

-0.44

1.39

-1.83

20

New York Giants

2.48

5.18

-2.70

21

Atlanta Falcons

-3.27

-0.51

-2.76

22

San Diego Chargers

-1.70

1.28

-2.98

23

Philadelphia Eagles

-0.27

3.44

-3.71

24

New Orleans Saints

1.25

6.60

-5.35

25

Indianapolis Colts

-2.49

2.94

-5.42

26

Miami Dolphins

-3.95

1.64

-5.59

27

San Francisco 49ers

-5.79

-0.10

-5.69

28

Dallas Cowboys

-6.06

-0.22

-5.84

29

Jacksonville Jaguars

-0.34

5.76

-6.10

30

Cleveland Browns

-3.30

2.86

-6.16

31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

-2.79

3.53

-6.32

32

Tennessee Titans

-4.98

3.88

-8.86

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