May 11, 2016

Parker vs. Mills

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:14 pm

If Spurs want to survive they need to play Patty Mills more and Parker less. After adjusting for OKC players on court here is how Spurs have played (in ppg) for games 2-5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Duncan Green Leonard Parker Aldridge Mills Ginobili Diaw West Anderson
Mills and  other in 46 12m 36 24m 28 39m dnp 25 39m 14 66m 11 52m -1 38m 1 40m -18 20m
Mills out and other in 10 70m 2 103m 12 116m 8 126m 5 122m dnp 16 31m -2 20m 12 36m -180 2m
Mills in and other out 7 54m 1 42m -5 28m 14 66m -1 27m dnp 24 14m 35 28m 35 26m 28 46m
Mills out and other out 4 56m 31 23m -49 10m -742 0m 87 3m 7 126m 4 95m 9 105m 5 90m 11 123m

So for example Mills in with Green SAN plays 36 ppg better than average and with Mills out only 2 ppg better than average. Parker and Leonard in 12 ppg better than average.  Leonard in and Parker out 28 ppg better than average. Mills and Anderson in bty, has played poorly.

 

Duncan Green Leonard Parker Aldridge Mills Ginobili Diaw West Anderson
Parker and  other in 10 70m 3 103m 12 116m 8 126m 6 122m dnp 19 31m 3 20m 12 36m -149 2m
Parker out and other in 46 12m 32 24m 28 39m dnp 22 39m 14 66m 9 52m -4 38m 1 40m -23 20m
Parker in and other out 6 56m 31 23m -40 10m dnp 87 3m 8 126m 4 95m 9 105m 6 90m 11 123m
Parker out and other out 5 55m 1 42m -8 28m 13 66m -1 27m -742 0m 24 14m 35 28m 31 26m 28 46m

The Spurs and Parker vs. Mills

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:04 pm

In Games 2-5 of OKC series, Spurs are much better with Mills on the floor than Parker. After adjusting for strength of opposing players on floor we find the following. Note than when Mills is in and Aldridge, Green or Kawh or West is in Spurs are much better than when Mill is out..

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Duncan Green Leonard Parker Aldridge Mills Ginobili Diaw West Anderson
Mills and  other in 46 12m 36 24m 28 39m dnp 25 39m 14 66m 11 52m -1 38m 1 40m -18 20m
Mills out and other in 10 70m 2 103m 12 116m 8 126m 5 122m dnp 16 31m -2 20m 12 36m -180 2m
Mills in and other out 7 54m 1 42m -5 28m 14 66m -1 27m dnp 24 14m 35 28m 35 26m 28 46m
Mills out and other out 4 56m 31 23m -49 10m -742 0m 87 3m 7 126m 4 95m 9 105m 5 90m 11 123m

For Parker we have the following info. You can see that when Parker is out and Aldridge, Green or Kawhi is in Spurs are much better than when Parker is in.

 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Duncan Green Leonard Parker Aldridge Mills Ginobili Diaw West Anderson
Parker and  other in 10 70m 3 103m 12 116m 8 126m 6 122m dnp 19 31m 3 20m 12 36m -149 2m
Parker out and other in 46 12m 32 24m 28 39m dnp 22 39m 14 66m 9 52m -4 38m 1 40m -23 20m
Parker in and other out 6 56m 31 23m -40 10m dnp 87 3m 8 126m 4 95m 9 105m 6 90m 11 123m
Parker out and other out 5 55m 1 42m -8 28m 13 66m -1 27m -742 0m 24 14m 35 28m 31 26m 28 46m

 

 

 

April 14, 2016

FInal NBA Regular Season Ratings April 13 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:19 am

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

0.44

-10.02

10.45

10

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.88

2.55

10.34

1

20

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.45

0.24

7.21

2

16

4

Toronto Raptors

0.89

-3.50

4.39

9

4

5

Los Angeles Clippers

0.98

-3.32

4.29

8

6

6

Boston Celtics

3.97

-0.03

4.00

5

14

7

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-3.46

3.46

15

5

8

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-3.26

3.30

12

7

9

Portland Trail Blazers

2.88

1.39

1.49

6

19

10

Houston Rockets

4.64

3.22

1.42

3

24

11

Charlotte Hornets

0.04

-1.32

1.37

11

12

12

Utah Jazz

-6.48

-7.78

1.30

30

2

13

Detroit Pistons

-0.82

-1.78

0.96

19

9

14

Miami Heat

-2.71

-3.53

0.82

23

3

15

Indiana Pacers

-0.70

-1.49

0.79

18

11

16

Dallas Mavericks

0.00

-0.14

0.14

14

13

17

Orlando Magic

-0.49

0.00

-0.48

17

15

18

Washington Wizards

1.77

2.62

-0.85

7

21

19

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.71

-1.94

-1.77

25

8

20

Chicago Bulls

-1.45

0.42

-1.87

21

17

21

Sacramento Kings

4.29

6.63

-2.34

4

30

22

Denver Nuggets

0.00

2.62

-2.62

16

22

23

New York Knicks

-4.48

-1.68

-2.80

28

10

24

New Orleans Pelicans

0.00

3.54

-3.54

13

26

25

Minnesota Timberwolves

-0.88

3.60

-4.49

20

27

26

Milwaukee Bucks

-4.12

0.81

-4.92

27

18

27

Phoenix Suns

-2.04

4.02

-6.06

22

28

28

Brooklyn Nets

-3.03

3.33

-6.36

24

25

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.51

3.07

-8.58

29

23

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-3.82

5.22

-9.03

26

29

April 6, 2016

NBA Ratings April 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:42 am

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

1.39

-9.86

11.25

8

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.83

3.27

9.56

1

26

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.88

0.36

7.52

2

17

4

Toronto Raptors

1.00

-3.34

4.34

10

5

5

Boston Celtics

4.01

-0.03

4.04

5

13

6

Los Angeles Clippers

1.01

-2.98

4.00

9

7

7

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-3.80

3.80

16

3

8

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-3.22

3.26

13

6

9

Utah Jazz

-6.47

-8.14

1.67

30

2

10

Charlotte Hornets

0.04

-1.59

1.64

12

11

11

Detroit Pistons

-0.22

-1.71

1.49

17

9

12

Houston Rockets

4.37

3.21

1.16

4

25

13

Portland Trail Blazers

2.64

1.53

1.11

6

19

14

Miami Heat

-2.75

-3.35

0.60

23

4

15

Indiana Pacers

-1.04

-1.57

0.53

20

12

16

Dallas Mavericks

0.00

0.11

-0.11

15

15

17

Orlando Magic

-0.69

0.00

-0.68

18

14

18

Washington Wizards

1.43

2.69

-1.26

7

21

19

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.55

-2.17

-1.38

24

8

20

Chicago Bulls

-1.54

0.35

-1.89

21

16

21

Sacramento Kings

4.80

7.03

-2.23

3

30

22

Denver Nuggets

0.31

2.83

-2.51

11

23

23

New Orleans Pelicans

0.00

2.67

-2.67

14

20

24

New York Knicks

-4.39

-1.66

-2.74

28

10

25

Minnesota Timberwolves

-1.02

3.71

-4.74

19

27

26

Milwaukee Bucks

-4.10

0.89

-4.99

26

18

27

Brooklyn Nets

-3.69

2.71

-6.40

25

22

28

Phoenix Suns

-2.65

4.29

-6.94

22

28

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.48

3.13

-8.62

29

24

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.16

4.66

-8.82

27

29

March 27, 2016

NBA Ratings March 27 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:14 am
Rank Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
1 San Antonio Spurs 1.52 -9.86 11.38 7 1
2 Golden State Warriors 13.26 3.00 10.26 1 23
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 7.57 0.21 7.36 2 16
4 Toronto Raptors 0.95 -3.46 4.41 10 6
5 Boston Celtics 4.17 -0.04 4.21 4 13
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.00 -4.04 4.04 16 3
7 Atlanta Hawks 0.04 -3.88 3.92 14 4
8 Los Angeles Clippers 1.00 -2.46 3.46 9 7
9 Charlotte Hornets 0.06 -1.34 1.40 13 12
10 Detroit Pistons -0.11 -1.48 1.37 17 10
11 Indiana Pacers -0.65 -1.55 0.90 18 9
12 Utah Jazz -6.64 -7.46 0.82 30 2
13 Miami Heat -3.01 -3.81 0.81 23 5
14 Houston Rockets 4.33 3.59 0.74 3 26
15 Portland Trail Blazers 2.23 1.50 0.73 6 19
16 Dallas Mavericks 0.00 0.10 -0.10 15 15
17 Washington Wizards 1.44 2.64 -1.20 8 22
18 Memphis Grizzlies -3.65 -2.35 -1.30 25 8
19 Orlando Magic -1.65 0.00 -1.65 21 14
20 Denver Nuggets 0.59 2.53 -1.94 11 21
21 Chicago Bulls -1.43 0.65 -2.08 20 18
22 New York Knicks -4.00 -1.46 -2.54 26 11
23 Sacramento Kings 3.99 6.84 -2.84 5 30
24 New Orleans Pelicans 0.35 3.50 -3.15 12 25
25 Milwaukee Bucks -4.12 0.40 -4.52 27 17
26 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.11 3.98 -5.08 19 28
27 Brooklyn Nets -3.30 2.19 -5.49 24 20
28 Phoenix Suns -2.39 3.95 -6.34 22 27
29 Los Angeles Lakers -5.12 3.43 -8.56 29 24
30 Philadelphia 76ers -4.33 4.68 -9.01 28 29

March 26, 2016

Elite 8 Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:19 pm
Team 3 4 5 6
Kansas 44.52% 18.20% 13.98% 23.30%
UVA 19.74% 32.14% 24.90% 23.22%
UNC 25.10% 36.20% 21.48% 17.22%
VILL 55.48% 17.00% 10.72% 16.80%
ORE 44.52% 34.70% 10.42% 10.36%
OKLA 55.48% 30.10% 7.78% 6.64%
ND 74.90% 17.88% 5.82% 1.40%
SYR 80.26% 13.78% 4.90% 1.06%

March 21, 2016

Sweet 16 odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:07 pm

Here is chance of each team winning each number of games

Team 2 3 4 5 6
Kansas 26.36% 28.04% 14.02% 11.66% 19.92%
UNC 38.20% 13.32% 19.18% 13.30% 16.00%
UVA 30.96% 20.48% 20.16% 12.86% 15.54%
VILL 36.92% 31.92% 11.94% 8.40% 10.82%
OKLA 42.38% 25.46% 18.80% 6.66% 6.70%
IND 61.80% 12.00% 12.78% 7.42% 6.00%
GONZ 34.52% 39.88% 14.42% 6.58% 4.60%
DUKE 49.96% 26.90% 15.06% 4.70% 3.38%
A AND M 57.62% 20.96% 13.60% 4.46% 3.36%
MIA 63.08% 22.68% 7.02% 3.96% 3.26%
ORE 50.04% 26.68% 14.62% 5.40% 3.26%
ISU 69.04% 14.68% 9.72% 4.48% 2.08%
MD 73.64% 17.36% 4.94% 2.18% 1.88%
ND 50.00% 37.52% 8.42% 2.88% 1.18%
WISC 50.00% 37.16% 8.68% 3.00% 1.16%
SYR 65.48% 24.96% 6.64% 2.06% 0.86%

 

Here is chance each team wins >=N games

Team >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Kansas 73.64% 45.60% 31.58% 19.92%
UNC 61.80% 48.48% 29.30% 16.00%
UVA 69.04% 48.56% 28.40% 15.54%
VILL 63.08% 31.16% 19.22% 10.82%
OKLA 57.62% 32.16% 13.36% 6.70%
IND 38.20% 26.20% 13.42% 6.00%
GONZ 65.48% 25.60% 11.18% 4.60%
DUKE 50.04% 23.14% 8.08% 3.38%
A AND M 42.38% 21.42% 7.82% 3.36%
MIA 36.92% 14.24% 7.22% 3.26%
ORE 49.96% 23.28% 8.66% 3.26%
ISU 30.96% 16.28% 6.56% 2.08%
MD 26.36% 9.00% 4.06% 1.88%
ND 50.00% 12.48% 4.06% 1.18%
WISC 50.00% 12.84% 4.16% 1.16%
SYR 34.52% 9.56% 2.92% 0.86%

March 20, 2016

NBA Ratings March 27

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:53 am

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

1.46

-10.19

11.65

8

1

2

Golden State Warriors

13.08

3.15

9.93

1

23

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.13

0.65

6.49

2

16

4

Boston Celtics

4.40

-0.03

4.43

5

13

5

Toronto Raptors

0.88

-3.46

4.35

9

6

6

Los Angeles Clippers

1.57

-2.69

4.26

7

8

7

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-3.98

4.01

14

4

8

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-3.94

3.93

15

5

9

Detroit Pistons

-0.09

-1.84

1.75

16

9

10

Utah Jazz

-5.88

-7.23

1.35

30

2

11

Charlotte Hornets

0.05

-1.21

1.26

13

12

12

Indiana Pacers

-0.19

-1.35

1.16

17

10

13

Portland Trail Blazers

2.46

1.55

0.91

6

19

14

Miami Heat

-3.16

-4.00

0.85

23

3

15

Houston Rockets

4.46

3.76

0.70

4

26

16

Dallas Mavericks

-0.54

0.06

-0.60

18

15

17

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.81

-2.76

-1.05

25

7

18

Washington Wizards

0.84

2.16

-1.32

10

21

19

Denver Nuggets

0.62

1.97

-1.34

11

20

20

Orlando Magic

-1.94

0.00

-1.94

21

14

21

Chicago Bulls

-1.45

0.77

-2.22

20

18

22

Sacramento Kings

4.65

6.99

-2.35

3

30

23

New York Knicks

-3.89

-1.30

-2.59

26

11

24

New Orleans Pelicans

0.13

3.56

-3.43

12

25

25

Milwaukee Bucks

-3.62

0.72

-4.34

24

17

26

Minnesota Timberwolves

-1.16

4.16

-5.32

19

28

27

Phoenix Suns

-1.99

3.99

-5.98

22

27

28

Brooklyn Nets

-4.04

2.33

-6.36

27

22

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.39

3.16

-8.55

29

24

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.61

5.02

-9.64

28

29

March 19, 2016

NCAA Probabilities Round of 32.

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:13 am

Here are chances of each team winning a given number of games.

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6
Kansas 0.2272 0.1702 0.212 0.1214 0.101 0.1682
UVA 0.2552 0.1912 0.1416 0.164 0.1078 0.1402
UNC 0.1704 0.3336 0.132 0.135 0.091 0.138
VILL 0.323 0.2396 0.193 0.0888 0.0666 0.089
OKLA 0.2578 0.2754 0.1846 0.1454 0.0642 0.0726
UK 0.4622 0.2794 0.0902 0.072 0.05 0.0462
XAV 0.3344 0.2052 0.2676 0.0996 0.0518 0.0414
DUKE 0.262 0.3336 0.1906 0.1252 0.0496 0.039
A AND M 0.2102 0.4064 0.1796 0.119 0.0496 0.0352
ORE 0.281 0.2998 0.2158 0.1264 0.0424 0.0346
IND 0.5378 0.2572 0.0808 0.0576 0.0334 0.0332
GONZ 0.4548 0.1684 0.2204 0.0916 0.0398 0.025
MIA 0.4744 0.2998 0.1316 0.0476 0.0264 0.0202
ISU 0.2618 0.4694 0.1244 0.089 0.0352 0.0202
MD 0.2654 0.4922 0.141 0.0552 0.027 0.0192
UTAH 0.5452 0.1514 0.1876 0.075 0.025 0.0158
Wichita 0.5256 0.2832 0.117 0.038 0.0206 0.0156
SYR 0.2314 0.4838 0.1958 0.0628 0.0182 0.008
ND 0.4142 0.3498 0.1704 0.04 0.0178 0.0078
BUT 0.7448 0.1214 0.067 0.0442 0.0156 0.007
IOWA 0.677 0.1774 0.0944 0.0306 0.0142 0.0064
WISC 0.6656 0.1636 0.1272 0.0256 0.0128 0.0052
UCONN 0.7728 0.1122 0.0774 0.0232 0.0096 0.0048
VCU 0.7422 0.1558 0.0666 0.0264 0.0076 0.0014
YALE 0.738 0.1804 0.0616 0.0162 0.0026 0.0012
HAW 0.7346 0.2254 0.0336 0.004 0.0014 0.001
PROV 0.8296 0.1298 0.027 0.0094 0.0032 0.001
STJOES 0.719 0.1862 0.0644 0.023 0.0066 0.0008
SFA 0.5858 0.2814 0.1048 0.021 0.0062 0.0008
UALR 0.7382 0.218 0.0312 0.0104 0.0016 0.0006
UNI 0.7898 0.1624 0.0368 0.0096 0.001 0.0004
MTSU 0.7686 0.1964 0.032 0.0028 0.0002 0

 

Here are chances of each team wining >=N games

Team >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Kansas 0.7728 0.6026 0.3906 0.2692 0.1682
UVA 0.7448 0.5536 0.412 0.248 0.1402
UNC 0.8296 0.496 0.364 0.229 0.138
VILL 0.677 0.4374 0.2444 0.1556 0.089
OKLA 0.7422 0.4668 0.2822 0.1368 0.0726
UK 0.5378 0.2584 0.1682 0.0962 0.0462
XAV 0.6656 0.4604 0.1928 0.0932 0.0414
DUKE 0.738 0.4044 0.2138 0.0886 0.039
A AND M 0.7898 0.3834 0.2038 0.0848 0.0352
ORE 0.719 0.4192 0.2034 0.077 0.0346
IND 0.4622 0.205 0.1242 0.0666 0.0332
GONZ 0.5452 0.3768 0.1564 0.0648 0.025
MIA 0.5256 0.2258 0.0942 0.0466 0.0202
ISU 0.7382 0.2688 0.1444 0.0554 0.0202
MD 0.7346 0.2424 0.1014 0.0462 0.0192
UTAH 0.4548 0.3034 0.1158 0.0408 0.0158
Wichita 0.4744 0.1912 0.0742 0.0362 0.0156
SYR 0.7686 0.2848 0.089 0.0262 0.008
ND 0.5858 0.236 0.0656 0.0256 0.0078
BUT 0.2552 0.1338 0.0668 0.0226 0.007
IOWA 0.323 0.1456 0.0512 0.0206 0.0064
WISC 0.3344 0.1708 0.0436 0.018 0.0052
UCONN 0.2272 0.115 0.0376 0.0144 0.0048
VCU 0.2578 0.102 0.0354 0.009 0.0014
YALE 0.262 0.0816 0.02 0.0038 0.0012
HAW 0.2654 0.04 0.0064 0.0024 0.001
PROV 0.1704 0.0406 0.0136 0.0042 0.001
STJOES 0.281 0.0948 0.0304 0.0074 0.0008
SFA 0.4142 0.1328 0.028 0.007 0.0008
UALR 0.2618 0.0438 0.0126 0.0022 0.0006
UNI 0.2102 0.0478 0.011 0.0014 0.0004
MTSU 0.2314 0.035 0.003 0.0002 0

March 17, 2016

COrrected NCAA Probabilities

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:19 am

Sorry I gave Oklahoma no chance to win in last simulation(I  had left out there rating). Here are corrected probabilities

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Kansas 0.48% 18.02% 18.36% 21.12% 11.94% 12.18% 17.90%
MSU 3.54% 14.32% 19.60% 23.80% 15.10% 8.42% 15.22%
UNC 1.70% 16.36% 30.68% 17.72% 14.68% 7.94% 10.92%
UVA 0.64% 21.88% 28.26% 21.28% 12.22% 7.26% 8.46%
VILL 3.70% 28.10% 25.34% 21.00% 7.48% 7.16% 7.22%
OKLA 7.10% 20.62% 25.28% 17.92% 15.48% 7.88% 5.72%
WVA 16.98% 19.92% 21.18% 20.68% 10.80% 4.82% 5.62%
ORE 0.90% 32.52% 28.36% 18.72% 11.50% 4.68% 3.32%
PUR 15.96% 27.58% 28.72% 14.72% 6.26% 3.46% 3.30%
UK 11.10% 38.24% 27.42% 9.90% 7.52% 2.94% 2.88%
IND 10.10% 43.64% 25.56% 9.84% 5.70% 2.74% 2.42%
XAV 7.36% 31.28% 30.80% 17.54% 7.50% 3.20% 2.32%
A AND M 9.56% 29.78% 30.40% 13.98% 10.46% 3.60% 2.22%
DUKE 16.28% 31.94% 23.02% 14.34% 9.04% 3.46% 1.92%
MIA 7.36% 44.84% 27.50% 12.20% 4.08% 2.44% 1.58%
ARIZ 44.56% 25.50% 16.08% 8.42% 2.72% 1.50% 1.22%
MD 18.84% 32.64% 33.16% 8.80% 3.56% 1.82% 1.18%
IOWA 18.64% 51.98% 15.72% 8.58% 2.58% 1.72% 0.78%
CAL 27.28% 34.80% 26.96% 6.98% 2.26% 1.02% 0.70%
BAY 31.12% 35.00% 17.28% 9.58% 4.64% 1.68% 0.70%
Wicita 55.44% 22.80% 12.86% 5.14% 2.00% 1.08% 0.68%
ISU 17.84% 46.06% 22.52% 8.40% 3.44% 1.10% 0.64%
TEX 29.84% 40.08% 18.56% 6.58% 3.46% 1.02% 0.46%
GONZ 44.58% 23.46% 21.34% 6.72% 2.64% 0.80% 0.46%
UTAH 18.62% 40.26% 27.64% 8.46% 3.40% 1.20% 0.42%
UCONN 36.34% 49.76% 6.72% 4.68% 1.60% 0.60% 0.30%
HALL 55.42% 21.16% 16.96% 4.20% 1.58% 0.44% 0.24%
VCU 41.74% 41.46% 10.32% 4.22% 1.74% 0.36% 0.16%
MICH 51.64% 33.84% 8.64% 4.38% 1.16% 0.18% 0.16%
SYR 47.96% 42.52% 5.50% 2.96% 0.84% 0.08% 0.14%
WISC 50.60% 31.02% 11.64% 5.08% 1.24% 0.30% 0.12%
BUT 39.44% 44.70% 9.70% 4.38% 1.30% 0.36% 0.12%
STJOES 57.44% 29.84% 8.42% 3.10% 0.80% 0.32% 0.08%
CIN 42.56% 36.74% 12.18% 5.46% 2.36% 0.62% 0.08%
PROV 50.04% 41.66% 5.98% 1.50% 0.54% 0.20% 0.08%
PITT 49.40% 31.54% 12.58% 4.68% 1.34% 0.38% 0.08%
COLO 63.66% 31.78% 2.58% 1.52% 0.30% 0.12% 0.04%
OR ST 58.26% 32.52% 6.66% 1.78% 0.64% 0.10% 0.04%
ND 48.36% 35.84% 9.68% 4.94% 0.98% 0.16% 0.04%
YALE 68.88% 21.24% 6.98% 2.04% 0.68% 0.16% 0.02%
USC 49.96% 40.66% 7.12% 1.74% 0.46% 0.04% 0.02%
SFA 83.02% 10.40% 4.48% 1.66% 0.32% 0.10% 0.02%
Aus Peay 99.52% 0.44% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
SDST 81.16% 13.30% 5.04% 0.44% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00%
HAW 72.72% 19.26% 7.14% 0.72% 0.10% 0.06% 0.00%
BUFF 92.64% 6.86% 0.44% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEMPLE 81.36% 16.58% 1.70% 0.34% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
UNCA 96.30% 3.34% 0.36% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FCGU 99.10% 0.90% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
UNCW 83.72% 11.82% 3.76% 0.58% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00%
UNI 70.16% 22.72% 5.44% 1.24% 0.36% 0.08% 0.00%
GB 90.44% 7.42% 1.90% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CSB 92.90% 5.40% 1.44% 0.22% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
FGCU 98.30% 1.32% 0.38% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CHAT 89.90% 9.06% 1.02% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
STONY 88.90% 9.06% 1.84% 0.16% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
WEB 92.64% 6.16% 1.00% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
HAM 99.36% 0.58% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEXAS TECH 60.56% 32.84% 4.54% 1.64% 0.36% 0.06% 0.00%
UALR 84.04% 11.08% 3.94% 0.80% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
IONA 82.16% 15.28% 2.26% 0.22% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
FRES 81.38% 15.12% 3.26% 0.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
DAYTON 52.04% 40.40% 5.04% 2.08% 0.32% 0.12% 0.00%
MTSU 96.46% 2.76% 0.66% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

 

Here is chance each team wins >=N games

Team >=1 >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Kansas 99.52% 81.50% 63.14% 42.02% 30.08% 17.90%
MSU 96.46% 82.14% 62.54% 38.74% 23.64% 15.22%
UNC 98.30% 81.94% 51.26% 33.54% 18.86% 10.92%
UVA 99.36% 77.48% 49.22% 27.94% 15.72% 8.46%
VILL 96.30% 68.20% 42.86% 21.86% 14.38% 7.22%
OKLA 92.90% 72.28% 47.00% 29.08% 13.60% 5.72%
WVA 83.02% 63.10% 41.92% 21.24% 10.44% 5.62%
ORE 99.10% 66.58% 38.22% 19.50% 8.00% 3.32%
PUR 84.04% 56.46% 27.74% 13.02% 6.76% 3.30%
UK 88.90% 50.66% 23.24% 13.34% 5.82% 2.88%
IND 89.90% 46.26% 20.70% 10.86% 5.16% 2.42%
XAV 92.64% 61.36% 30.56% 13.02% 5.52% 2.32%
A AND M 90.44% 60.66% 30.26% 16.28% 5.82% 2.22%
DUKE 83.72% 51.78% 28.76% 14.42% 5.38% 1.92%
MIA 92.64% 47.80% 20.30% 8.10% 4.02% 1.58%
ARIZ 55.44% 29.94% 13.86% 5.44% 2.72% 1.22%
MD 81.16% 48.52% 15.36% 6.56% 3.00% 1.18%
IOWA 81.36% 29.38% 13.66% 5.08% 2.50% 0.78%
CAL 72.72% 37.92% 10.96% 3.98% 1.72% 0.70%
BAY 68.88% 33.88% 16.60% 7.02% 2.38% 0.70%
Wicita 44.56% 21.76% 8.90% 3.76% 1.76% 0.68%
ISU 82.16% 36.10% 13.58% 5.18% 1.74% 0.64%
TEX 70.16% 30.08% 11.52% 4.94% 1.48% 0.46%
GONZ 55.42% 31.96% 10.62% 3.90% 1.26% 0.46%
UTAH 81.38% 41.12% 13.48% 5.02% 1.62% 0.42%
UCONN 63.66% 13.90% 7.18% 2.50% 0.90% 0.30%
HALL 44.58% 23.42% 6.46% 2.26% 0.68% 0.24%
VCU 58.26% 16.80% 6.48% 2.26% 0.52% 0.16%
MICH 48.36% 14.52% 5.88% 1.50% 0.34% 0.16%
SYR 52.04% 9.52% 4.02% 1.06% 0.22% 0.14%
WISC 49.40% 18.38% 6.74% 1.66% 0.42% 0.12%
BUT 60.56% 15.86% 6.16% 1.78% 0.48% 0.12%
STJOES 42.56% 12.72% 4.30% 1.20% 0.40% 0.08%
CIN 57.44% 20.70% 8.52% 3.06% 0.70% 0.08%
PROV 49.96% 8.30% 2.32% 0.82% 0.28% 0.08%
PITT 50.60% 19.06% 6.48% 1.80% 0.46% 0.08%
COLO 36.34% 4.56% 1.98% 0.46% 0.16% 0.04%
OR ST 41.74% 9.22% 2.56% 0.78% 0.14% 0.04%
ND 51.64% 15.80% 6.12% 1.18% 0.20% 0.04%
YALE 31.12% 9.88% 2.90% 0.86% 0.18% 0.02%
USC 50.04% 9.38% 2.26% 0.52% 0.06% 0.02%
SFA 16.98% 6.58% 2.10% 0.44% 0.12% 0.02%
Aus Peay 0.48% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
SDST 18.84% 5.54% 0.50% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00%
HAW 27.28% 8.02% 0.88% 0.16% 0.06% 0.00%
BUFF 7.36% 0.50% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEMPLE 18.64% 2.06% 0.36% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
UNCA 3.70% 0.36% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FCGU 0.90% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
UNCW 16.28% 4.46% 0.70% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00%
UNI 29.84% 7.12% 1.68% 0.44% 0.08% 0.00%
GB 9.56% 2.14% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CSB 7.10% 1.70% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
FGCU 1.70% 0.38% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CHAT 10.10% 1.04% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
STONY 11.10% 2.04% 0.20% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
WEB 7.36% 1.20% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
HAM 0.64% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEXAS TECH 39.44% 6.60% 2.06% 0.42% 0.06% 0.00%
UALR 15.96% 4.88% 0.94% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
IONA 17.84% 2.56% 0.30% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
FRES 18.62% 3.50% 0.24% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
DAYTON 47.96% 7.56% 2.52% 0.44% 0.12% 0.00%
MTSU 3.54% 0.78% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
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