The Washington Wizards have been a big disappointment. Most preseason predictions placed the Wizards in the playoffs, but currently the Wizards are languishing in 12^th place.  I believe the Wizards can easily improve their play. Adjusted +/- ratings (see Chapter 40 of my book Mathletics for an explanation of Adjusted +/- ratings) provide the lens through which we can diagnose and solve the Wizards’ problems.

·        Haywood with his +17 Adjusted +/- and -21 defense rating is probably the league’s most underrated player.  Haywood is the league’s #1 defender. We estimate that when Haywood is in the Wizards give up 21 points less than they would if he were replaced by an average defender.

·        Foye (-16 Adjusted +/-) ,McGuire (Adjusted +/- of -13) and Stevenson (Adjusted +/- of -10) have killed the Wizards.

·        The Wizards are horrible when Foye and Arenas play (16 points worse than average) When Arenas plays without Foye the Wizards are very good, 3 points better than average. When Foye plays with Haywood and without Arenas the Wizards play well, 8 points better than average.

·        When Haywood and Arenas are in without Foye the Wizards are great, 7 points better than average.

Reducing the time that Foye and Arenas play together will really help.  Keeping Haywood on the floor with Foye when Arenas is out would also help a lot. Here are the Wizards best lineups. The Wizards can compete with any team when these lineups are on the floor. For example the first listed lineup (1 A)played 14.87 points better than average per game in 140 minutes outsscoring opponents by 35 points (other numbers are not important).

WAS      14.87 (    7.40    5.58   -1.82   28.51    0.80    9.82)  140.28 minutes   53 appearances     1 A     11.98       35 $

Arenas        Butler        Haywood       Jamison       Young         29.20 years      16709_WAS_2009

 

WAS      11.68 (   -1.94    4.75    6.70  -13.02   -0.51   11.18)  109.95 minutes   45 appearances     2 A     11.35       26 $

Arenas        Butler        Haywood       Jamison       Stevenson     30.04 years       8517_WAS_2009v

WAS       7.06 (   20.09   22.94    2.85   52.44    2.01   10.67)   45.78 minutes   18 appearances     6 A      5.24        5 $

Arenas        Butler        Haywood       Jamison       Miller        30.26 years       2373_WAS_2009

 

WAS       2.15 (   19.15   13.51   -5.64   17.75    1.46   10.78)   30.33 minutes   11 appearances     7 A     -6.33       -4 $

Arenas        Blatche       Butler        Haywood       Miller        28.22 years       2119_WAS_2009

 

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �

WAS      52.78 (   -0.02   -4.44   -4.42   -9.53   -0.16   10.64)   27.24 minutes   22 appearances     1 B     52.86       30 $

Arenas        Blatche       Butler        Haywood       Boykins       28.96 years      32839_WAS_2009

 

WAS      27.36 (   22.27   10.70  -11.56   42.74    1.97   10.47)   25.78 minutes   11 appearances     2 B      5.59        3 $

Arenas        Butler        Haywood       Miller        Oberto        30.51 years       6213_WAS_2009

 

WAS       1.29 (  -17.42    4.55   21.98  -29.27   -1.32    5.22)   23.99 minutes   19 appearances     3 B      2.00        1 $

Arenas        Blatche       Butler        Jamison       Boykins       29.66 years     

WAS       8.09 (  -24.16  -18.68    5.47  -92.70   -2.80    8.18)   20.66 minutes   16 appearances     6 B     16.27        7 $

Blatche       Butler        Foye          Oberto        Stevenson     28.59 years      12326_WAS_2009

 

WAS      30.16 (    0.36    7.36    7.01    3.07    0.29   14.15)   20.25 minutes   13 appearances     7 B     23.70       10 $

Arenas        Blatche       Foye          Haywood       Miller        27.51 years      

WAS       7.25 (  -10.94    5.14   16.08  -25.92   -0.92    4.81)   18.93 minutes   14 appearances     9 B     10.14        4 $

Arenas        Blatche       Butler        Jamison       Young         27.86 years      16647_WAS_2009

 

WAS      27.30 (    6.60   -1.76   -8.36    8.89    0.39    9.81)   18.85 minutes    6 appearances    10 B     33.10       13 $

Arenas        Haywood       Jamison       Oberto        Young         30.20 years      20801_WAS_

Here are our adjusted +/- ratings for the last 5 games (thru games of December 29). For example, we see our best estimate is that LeBron has played 37 points better than average the last 5 games. We see that  the King and Varejao have sparked Cleveland’s recent resurgence. Portland has been hot  due to great play by Miller and Bayless. Haywood has been an unsung hero for the Wizards. On the other hand, JR Smith has really hurt Denver during their recent skid. This listing only includes players who averaged more than 25 minutes or so per game.

    1  CLE LeBron James                 37.48    191.87   ( 13.32)     1

    2  CLE Anderson Varejao             32.89    159.61   ( 18.45)     2

    3  DAL Dirk Nowitzki                31.46    169.21   ( 17.31)     3

    4  MIA Dwyane Wade                  30.02    170.40   ( 19.84)     4

    5  CHI Luol Deng                    29.04    209.17   ( 12.73)     5

    6  POR Jerryd Bayless               27.73    129.28   ( 27.10)     6

    7  WAS Brendan Haywood              26.63    171.13   ( 15.40)     7

    8  POR Andre Miller                 25.42    141.06   ( 19.00)     8

    9  MIA Quentin Richardson           24.44    143.73   ( 24.20)     9

   10  DEN Nene                         23.83    187.68   ( 18.72)    10

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   11  DAL Shawn Marion                 23.60    149.39   ( 22.11)    11

   12  OKC Kevin Durant                 21.49    206.14   ( 14.87)    12

   13  POR Martell Webster              20.81    161.69   ( 17.22)    13

   14  TOR Andrea Bargnani              20.29    171.27   ( 16.80)    14

   15  TOR Chris Bosh                   18.26    166.65   ( 18.38)    15

   16  MEM Marc Gasol                   18.03    187.94   ( 12.55)    16

   17  SAS Tim Duncan                   17.91    153.63   ( 15.62)    17

   18  CHA Raja Bell                    17.31    157.45   ( 16.44)    18

   19  MEM Zach Randolph                14.97    209.68   ( 13.53)    19

   20  POR Brandon Roy                  14.96    208.88   ( 12.80)    20

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   21  CHA Gerald Wallace               13.96    219.54   ( 14.61)    21

   22  GSW Stephen Jackson              13.55    169.31   ( 23.93)    22

   23  POR Steve Blake                  13.11    128.80   ( 15.90)    23

   24  OKC Russell Westbrook            12.81    186.20   ( 15.79)    24

   25  UTA Andrei Kirilenko             12.39    132.87   ( 13.52)    25

   26  SAC Beno Udrih                   12.03    177.67   ( 16.76)    26

   27  NOH Devin Brown                  11.74    154.91   ( 20.51)    27

   28  SAS Manu Ginobili                11.42    143.50   ( 17.78)    28

   29  LAC Chris Kaman                  11.41    176.40   ( 13.15)    29

   30  GSW C.J. Watson                  11.26    151.03   ( 22.25)    30

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   31  PHI Allen Iverson                10.94    165.73   ( 14.58)    31

   32  CHA Raymond Felton               10.85    178.99   ( 15.83)    32

   33  HOU Kyle Lowry                   10.67    130.62   ( 21.13)    33

   34  LAL Kobe Bryant                  10.40    218.92   ( 12.39)    34

   35  MEM Rudy Gay                     10.35    173.76   ( 14.33)    35

   36  UTA Deron Williams               10.35    172.36   ( 16.66)    36

   37  CLE Anthony Parker               10.28    143.02   ( 17.11)    37

   38  NYK Danilo Gallinari             10.05    179.69   ( 18.10)    38

   39  DET Richard Hamilton              9.42    163.30   ( 24.31)    39

   40  MIN Kevin Love                    9.33    162.14   ( 14.21)    40

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   41  BOS Ray Allen                     9.22    196.24   ( 13.27)    41

   42  NYK Jared Jeffries                9.20    162.20   ( 23.99)    42

   43  DAL Jason Kidd                    9.00    188.63   ( 17.78)    43

   44  NYK Wilson Chandler               8.79    193.00   ( 11.78)    44

   45  WAS Caron Butler                  8.45    208.49   ( 13.30)    45

   46  SAC Kevin Martin                  8.26    208.60   (  8.23)    46

   47  PHI Lou Williams                  8.07    160.59   ( 14.93)    47

   48  CHI Kirk Hinrich                  7.77    160.01   ( 19.38)    48

   49  GSW Anthony Morrow                7.60    138.54   ( 18.70)    49

   50  OKC Thabo Sefolosha               7.39    144.78   ( 19.34)    50

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   51  CLE Mo Williams                   7.37    183.83   ( 14.68)    51

   52  LAL Ron Artest                    7.15    182.61   ( 14.49)    52

   53  NOH Chris Paul                    6.64    202.57   ( 16.69)    53

   54  ORL Dwight Howard                 6.18    190.49   ( 18.57)    54

   55  GSW Monta Ellis                   5.81    218.64   ( 13.50)    55

   56  DEN Kenyon Martin                 5.47    184.10   ( 13.26)    56

   57  NJN Yi Jianlian                   5.35    156.48   ( 15.92)    57

   58  BOS Rajon Rondo                   5.34    204.53   ( 15.85)    58

   59  PHO Channing Frye                 5.33    158.60   ( 16.73)    59

   60  GSW Corey Maggette                5.09    168.41   ( 19.37)    60

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   61  CHI Derrick Rose                  4.96    199.58   ( 15.78)    61

   62  GSW Stephen Curry                 4.74    148.86   ( 16.49)    62

   63  MIA Michael Beasley               4.61    154.02   ( 17.83)    63

   64  PHI Thaddeus Young                4.33    158.83   ( 13.71)    64

   65  WAS Mike Miller                   3.97    133.69   ( 19.75)    65

   66  SAC Jason Thompson                3.66    207.71   ( 13.31)    66

   67  PHO Steve Nash                    3.35    168.35   ( 18.47)    67

   68  SAS Roger Mason Jr.               3.12    128.28   ( 18.81)    68

   69  ATL Josh Smith                    3.09    152.67   ( 18.97)    69

   70  WAS Antawn Jamison                2.91    194.82   ( 17.65)    70

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   71  POR Juwan Howard                  2.79    140.52   ( 27.73)    71

   72  DEN Carmelo Anthony               2.67    195.50   ( 15.16)    72

   73  IND Danny Granger                 2.29    178.08   ( 12.21)    73

   74  PHI Andre Iguodala                2.29    213.60   ( 13.46)    74

   75  MIL Andrew Bogut                  2.18    149.50   ( 16.99)    75

   76  DET Rodney Stuckey                1.61    173.19   ( 15.26)    76

   77  LAC Baron Davis                   1.48    165.22   ( 14.73)    77

   78  PHI Willie Green                  1.34    168.54   ( 18.76)    78

   79  MIN Damien Wilkins                1.25    170.82   ( 23.07)    79

   80  DAL Jose Juan Barea               0.72    150.59   ( 20.16)    80

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   81  GSW Kelenna Azubuike              0.17    140.95   ( 27.22)    81

   82  PHO Jared Dudley                  0.14    145.28   ( 15.47)    82

   83  ATL Jamal Crawford               -0.11    158.63   ( 19.40)    83

   84  DET Ben Gordon                   -0.11    132.14   ( 17.24)    84

   85  ORL Jameer Nelson                -0.16    139.16   ( 21.87)    85

   86  CHI John Salmons                 -0.22    163.26   ( 15.64)    86

   87  ORL Vince Carter                 -0.43    162.85   ( 20.33)    87

   88  NOH Peja Stojakovic              -0.62    156.11   ( 17.62)    88

   89  ATL Mike Bibby                   -0.67    139.54   ( 16.06)    89

   90  HOU Carl Landry                  -0.78    153.73   ( 19.70)    90

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   91  POR LaMarcus Aldridge            -0.98    209.02   ( 15.25)    91

   92  HOU Aaron Brooks                 -1.25    159.46   (  9.14)    92

   93  SAS Richard Jefferson            -1.28    141.95   ( 15.05)    93

   94  PHI Elton Brand                  -1.29    152.67   ( 18.46)    94

   95  MIN Corey Brewer                 -1.32    166.11   ( 16.91)    95

   96  POR Joel Przybilla               -1.76    126.94   ( 19.15)    96

   97  MIL Luc Richard Mbah a Moute     -2.12    137.90   ( 13.95)    97

   98  MIN Jonny Flynn                  -2.13    147.63   ( 13.55)    98

   99  SAS Tony Parker                  -2.24    156.16   ( 20.82)    99

  100  NYK Chris Duhon                  -2.28    179.55   ( 15.90)   100

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

  101  UTA Mehmet Okur                  -2.48    150.60   ( 17.35)   101

  102  TOR Jarrett Jack                 -2.56    158.80   ( 17.18)   102

  103  NOH Emeka Okafor                 -2.65    133.06   ( 17.25)   103

  104  NYK David Lee                    -2.78    202.00   ( 19.71)   104

  105  HOU Shane Battier                -2.90    183.47   ( 15.83)   105

  106  DET Ben Wallace                  -3.04    137.22   ( 16.45)   106

  107  IND Dahntay Jones                -3.12    125.93   ( 18.59)   107

  108  WAS Gilbert Arenas               -3.56    195.45   ( 16.50)   108

  109  LAC Marcus Camby                 -3.59    153.69   ( 15.41)   109

  110  DEN Chauncey Billups             -3.82    145.94   ( 15.31)   110

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

  111  MIN Al Jefferson                 -4.10    165.89   ( 14.81)   111

  112  MIA Udonis Haslem                -4.23    142.12   ( 17.15)   112

  113  CHA Stephen Jackson              -4.37    180.16   ( 11.59)   113

  114  ATL Joe Johnson                  -4.40    198.17   ( 16.32)   114

  115  PHO Jason Richardson             -4.96    152.95   ( 18.04)   115

  116  ATL Al Horford                   -5.96    210.14   ( 15.71)   116

  117  DAL Josh Howard                  -5.98    140.08   ( 24.60)   117

  118  LAL Pau Gasol                    -6.05    208.53   ( 14.28)   118

  119  LAC Eric Gordon                  -6.08    179.90   ( 15.15)   119

  120  BOS Kendrick Perkins             -6.28    141.26   ( 18.78)   120

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

  121  LAL Lamar Odom                   -6.57    171.59   ( 19.12)   121

  122  DAL Jason Terry                  -6.86    160.38   ( 21.66)   122

  123  DEN Ty Lawson                    -7.05    129.74   ( 23.47)   123

  124  TOR Hedo Turkoglu                -7.10    159.70   ( 15.78)   124

  125  PHO Amar’e Stoudemire            -7.11    164.52   ( 16.39)   125

  126  NYK Al Harrington                -7.14    149.41   ( 14.41)   126

  127  NJN Chris Douglas-Roberts        -7.15    181.18   ( 13.29)   127

  128  BOS Paul Pierce                  -7.51    174.37   ( 14.11)   128

  129  DET Jonas Jerebko                -7.72    156.65   ( 15.88)   129

  130  HOU Luis Scola                   -7.73    140.33   ( 12.36)   130

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

  131  LAL Derek Fisher                 -8.02    155.36   ( 13.30)   131

  132  MEM O.J. Mayo                    -8.50    216.87   ( 12.94)   132

  133  CHI Joakim Noah                  -8.79    181.58   ( 16.59)   133

  134  LAC Rasual Butler                -9.13    140.44   ( 16.75)   134

  135  SAC Tyreke Evans                 -9.14    206.08   ( 13.70)   135

  136  DAL Erick Dampier                -9.25    143.62   ( 17.14)   136

  137  ORL Rashard Lewis                -9.57    166.41   ( 21.24)   137

  138  ATL Marvin Williams              -9.61    139.54   ( 20.53)   138

  139  LAC Al Thornton                  -9.95    165.07   ( 14.53)   139

  140  HOU Trevor Ariza                -10.06    183.42   ( 13.58)   140

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

  141  MIL Brandon Jennings            -10.57    161.35   ( 15.21)   141

  142  WAS Randy Foye                  -10.59    127.88   ( 25.32)   142

  143  SAC Spencer Hawes               -10.81    143.13   ( 14.64)   143

  144  LAL Andrew Bynum                -11.04    145.72   ( 14.93)   144

  145  OKC Jeff Green                  -11.08    176.23   ( 15.63)   145

  146  BOS Kevin Garnett               -11.11    157.00   ( 16.75)   146

  147  DET Tayshaun Prince             -11.99    167.50   ( 18.56)   147

  148  MEM Mike Conley                 -11.99    179.87   ( 16.93)   148

  149  SAC Omri Casspi                 -12.29    158.61   ( 18.84)   149

  150  UTA Ronnie Brewer               -13.19    126.25   ( 18.32)   150

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

  151  NJN Devin Harris                -13.85    176.29   ( 12.11)   151

  152  NJN Courtney Lee                -14.22    179.42   ( 13.42)   152

  153  NJN Brook Lopez                 -14.92    174.68   ( 12.55)   153

  154  DET Will Bynum                  -15.78    125.26   ( 16.12)   154

  155  BOS Rasheed Wallace             -15.95    133.33   ( 17.14)   155

  156  UTA Carlos Boozer               -18.26    150.81   ( 17.85)   156

  157  CHA Boris Diaw                  -18.50    165.10   ( 15.71)   157

  158  PHO Grant Hill                  -20.40    130.08   ( 19.26)   158

  159  DEN J.R. Smith                  -23.62    138.75   ( 19.18)   159

  160  NOH David West                  -24.22    173.90   ( 15.53)   160

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

  161  MIL Michael Redd                -24.85    136.02   ( 20.02)   161

  162  CHA Tyson Chandler              -24.88    146.39   ( 21.89)   162

  163  IND Troy Murphy                 -29.65    143.99   ( 17.94)   163

 

 

The Pacers have played 6.57 points worse than average this year (all numbers in this post are adjusted for ability of Pacers opponents). Things do not have to be this bad. The performance of the Pacers is a lesson in the shortcomings of box score statistics. Troy Murphy of the Pacers has the 45^th best PER rating in the league, indicating he is a way above average player (15 is an average PER). PER ratings are based on box score stats.  Murphy’s adjusted +/- rating, however, is a horrific -18. This means that after adjusting for who Murphy played with and against, Murphy hurts the Pacers performance by 18 points per game. Tyler Hansbrough has an Adjusted +/- of -13 and Solomon Jones an adjusted +/- of -22. On the other hand Brandon Rush has an Adjusted +/- of +10. Mike Dunleavy +13, and Luther Head an amazing +25. Reducing the playing time of the players with the poor Adjusted +/-  and increasing the playing time of the players with the better Adjusted +/- should really improve the Pacer’s performance.  For example, we see that when Rush and Hibbert are on the court and Murphy and Solomon Jones are out the Pacers are an amazing 9 points better than average. The following table demonstrates how much Murphy hurts the team and Head has helped the team.

	Murphy	Murphy	Head	Head
Player in	In	Out	in	out
Ford	-16.7963	-2.17161	2.474052	-12.8705
Granger	-16.4396	3.727427	2.830269	-5.70186
Hibbert	-18.281	6.660624	16.88156	-10.1716
DJones	-18.3558	1.178503	4.202831	-10.4855
Watson	-9.72213	-0.43644	3.519457	-7.3027
Foster	-2.3567	-0.12969	11.69779	-3.58569
SJones	-21.8713	-7.70466	0.745643	-22.4891
Dunleavy	-6.1493	4.388095	34.21783	-7.0998
Head	6.199217	5.850368	5.961168	dnp
Murphy	-13.3469	dnp	6.199217	-16.4467
Hansbrough	-11.8575	-3.21532	3.509672	-10.4462
Rush	-14.3547	1.988147	0.65076	-7.41243

For example, after adjusting for strength of opponent, Hibbert in with Murphy out results in Pacers playing 6.67 points better than average. With Murphy and Hibbert in the Pacers play 18.28 points worse than average. Hopefully, the coaches can figure out what Murphy is doing wrong.

            Given the paucity of good Eastern Conference teams it is not too late for the Pacers to make a move towards the playoffs. They simply need to be smarter about the combinations they put on the court.

The Portland Trailblazers have suffered an unprecedented run of tragic injuries. Yet so far this season they have played better (6 points better than average) than any Western Conference team. How has this happened?

With Przybilla and Oden out, the Blazers have playecd 370 minues and played 6.3 points better than average. The following combos (assuming Oden and Przybila out) have keyed their success (all numbers are how well team has played per 48 minutes adjusted for strength of opponents)

1. Miller and Blake on court with Pendergraph out: 60 minutes , Blazers are 28 points better than average.
2. Miller, Bayless, Webster on court, Blake and Perdergrpah out; Blazers in 31 minutes play 35 points better than average.
3. Rest of time Oden and Pryzbilla are out Blazers have played 1 point worse than average.

In last 5 games Miller has  played 16 points better than average, Bayless 19 points better than average, and Blake 11 points better than average.

These four lineups have been solid for the Blazers. For example. the last lineup listed (Aldridge      Bayless       Howard        Miller        Webster       ) is up 18 points in 24 minutes and has played 43 points better than average per 48 minutes.

POR      12.76 (    4.62    5.78    1.16   25.74    0.83   11.77)   29.15 minutes   17 appearances     2 B      6.59        4 $
Aldridge      Bayless       Blake         Howard        Roy           27.60 years       8269_POR_2009

POR       7.03 (    5.47   -7.10  -12.57   22.96    0.89   11.88)   25.33 minutes   16 appearances     3 B      7.58        4 $
Aldridge      Bayless       Blake         Howard        Webster       27.13 years      16461_POR_2009

POR      11.00 (   -0.94  -15.86  -14.92  -21.72    0.10   12.11)   25.04 minutes   20 appearances     4 B     15.34        8 $
Aldridge      Fernandez     Miller        Przybilla     Webster       27.26 years      20641_POR_2009

POR      42.56 (   12.85   -2.86  -15.70   52.78    1.78   13.49)   24.10 minutes   12 appearances     5 B     35.85       18 $
Aldridge      Bayless       Howard        Miller        Webster       27.91 years      16581_POR_2009

After adjusting for strength of opponent here is how well each NBA team has played so far. For example, so far the Hawks have been the NBA’s best team playing 7.3 points better than average while the Nets have been the league’s worst team playing 13 points worse than average.

Eastern Conference

Team	Rating
ATL	7.3
BOS	7.1
ORL	6.9
CLE	3.7
MIA	0.4
MIL	-0.4
CHA	-1.2
TOR	-1.5
DET	-2.2
NYK	-2.7
PHI	-3.3
WAS	-3.6
CHI	-5.3
IND	-5.7
NJN	-13

 

Western Conference

Team	Rating
POR	5.8
DEN	5.7
LAL	4
DAL	3.9
SAS	3.9
HOU	3.8
PHO	3.7
UTA	3.1
OKC	1.9
MEM	-1.3
NOH	-2
SAC	-2.3
LAC	-4
GSW	-4.8
MIN	-8.5

 

            In the East it looks like anyone but the Bulls, Pacers and Nets have a shot at the playoffs. In the West the first 8 appear set unless the Thunder improves even more.

     You probably say how can the Lakers be only 4 points better than average? Remember Gasol missed a lot of games, and the Lakers played poorly with him out. To win the NBA title a team must play around 15 points better than average.  Since teams can shorten their rotation in the playoffs, usually a team can play at this elite level. Based on their track record so far (and barring injuries), I believe the Lakers can easily ascend to this elite level of performance. Here’s how.

Keep at least 3 of Gasol, Odom, Bryant and Artest  (or just Artest and Bryant on the court). During these minutes the Lakers play 16 points better than average. The rest of the time the Lakers play 21 points worse than average.

Assuming that Gasol, Bryant, Artest and Odom log 36 minutes, it should be easy to keep these combinations on the court at almost all times. No other team seems to have the potential to play at this high a level.

A month ago the Knicks were the laughing stock of the league. In December they have been one of the league’s best teams, playing 5 points better than average.  A playoff berth is a definite possibility. Why the turnaround? Many fans think the benching of Nate Robinson was the catalyst.  I do not think so. Since his benching Nate’s Adjusted +/- rating has stayed constant at around +3 points better than average per game. Usually when a player is not playing his rating moves as we learn more about other players. In this case I still think Nate is an a slightly better than average NBA player. If he was the problem. his rating would have dropped a lot.

   I believe the key to the Knick’s improvement has been primarily the improved play of Jarred Jeffries and to a lesser degree the improvment of Duhon and Lee. In 109  December minutes where Jeffries was in and Chandler was out the Knicks have played 24 points better than average. When Chandler is in and Jeffries is out the Knicks have stumbled around and played 5 points worse than average. Jeffries adjusted +/- rating for December is 15 points better than average.

  Amazingly in December Lee Jeffries and Duhon in together  have played 16 points better than average. When Lee and Duhon are in without Jeffries the Knicks have played at an average level.

For the season here are the Knicks best lineups. Note that 1B with Duhon Jeffries Lee Gallinari and Hughes playes an amazing 51 points better than average per 48 minutes.

By the way for the whole season Gallo, Hughes and Harrington in has played 17 points better than average.

 

NYK      15.64 (   -0.04    5.50    5.54    4.80    0.10    6.82)   51.70 minutes   37 appearances     6 A     17.64       19 $

Duhon         Gallinari     Harrington    Hughes        Lee           27.24 years       1208_NYK_2009

 

NYK       6.36 (  -10.15    0.10   10.25  -25.84   -1.08    4.74)   33.55 minutes   19 appearances     8 A      7.15        5 $

Chandler      Duhon         Harrington    Lee           Robinson      26.42 years       9257_NYK_2009

 

NYK      35.22 (    4.17    2.12   -2.05   22.70    0.70    7.77)   31.00 minutes   18 appearances     9 A     51.09       33 $

Duhon         Harrington    Hughes        Jeffries      Lee           28.58 years       1448_NYK_2009

 

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �

NYK      51.37 (    7.95    0.97   -6.98   16.44    0.79    7.99)   23.27 minutes   13 appearances     1 B     47.43       23 $

Duhon         Gallinari     Hughes        Jeffries      Lee           26.89 years       1432_NYK_2009

 

NYK      11.25 (  -26.94   -3.92   23.03  -55.22   -2.47    8.33)   21.12 minutes   10 appearances     2 B      4.55        2 $

Chandler      Douglas       Duhon         Gallinari     Lee           24.37 years       1053_NYK_2009

 

NYK      12.00 (    0.28    0.01   -0.26   11.26    0.41   10.57)   20.06 minutes   11 appearances     3 B     11.96        5 $

Chandler      Douglas       Harrington    Hughes        Jeffries      27.07 years        421_NYK_2009

 

NYK      54.83 (    5.75    1.93   -3.82   27.00    1.02   10.78)   17.59 minutes    9 appearances     4 B     57.32       21 $

Douglas       Gallinari     Harrington    Hughes        Jeffries      26.82 years        436_NYK_2009

 

 

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �

NYK      40.23 (    5.92    5.38   -0.54   11.36    0.58    5.85)   16.93 minutes   12 appearances     1 C     36.86       13 $

Chandler      Duhon         Gallinari     Harrington    Hughes        26.44 years        185_NYK_2009

 

NYK      49.32 (   34.41   12.74  -21.68  -11.36   -0.28   29.47)   16.00 minutes   10 appearances     2 C     45.00       15 $

Chandler      Douglas       Gallinari     Hill          Landry        22.89 years        597_NYK

 

Let’s not forget the amazing comeback of Jonathan Bender. He has played great in his first two games, and let’s hope he gets to fulfill the amazing promise he showed when he played for the Pacers. Stay healthy Jonathan!

The Bulls have disappointed their fans with their poor play (7 points worse per game than average). This culminated in Monday”s blowing of a 35 point lead against the Kings. In that game the lineup of  Deng, Miller, Rose, Salmons and Noah was up 17 points but was not seen at crunch time. Here’s when the Bulls have trouble. All numbers are per 48 minutes and are adjusted for strength of opponent.h

• With Deng out the Bulls play 30 points worse than average.
• With Salmons out the Bulls play 15 points worse than average.

This is where the loss of Ben Gordon has an impact: there is not enough scoring when Deng or Salmons is out. With Salmon out, Deng, Hinrich, Miller Pargo or Rose and Gibson has played well. With Deng out not much works. Deng is having a a great year (+20 point Adjusted +/-) but has received little credit in the media.

 Given Deng and Salmons are in, a key decision is what combo of Miller and Noah should be played. Here is some relevant data.

• With Noah in and Miller out things are bad 474 min. Bulls play at -6.
• With Miller in and Noah out 138 min Bulls play at +8.
• With Miller and Noah in 207 min Mulls play at  +5.

It seems foolish to play Noah without Miller so often when this combo performs poorly.

Here are the Bulls’ best lineups. For example, Deng Gibson Hinrich Miller and Salmons has played 8 points better than average in 41 minutes.

 

CHI       8.10 (    7.70   -6.15  -13.85   20.97    0.81   12.78)   41.40 minutes   34 appearances     5 A     12.75       11 $

Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Miller        Salmons       28.40 years       4374_CHI_2009

 

CHI       9.65 (   -1.44   -4.09   -2.65    9.73    0.14   14.96)   35.70 minutes   25 appearances     7 A     13.45       10 $

Deng          Hinrich       Miller        Noah          Salmons       28.46 years       4882_CHI_2009

 

CHI      16.61 (   -1.34  -12.75  -11.42   18.32    0.32   14.95)   34.66 minutes   24 appearances     8 A     13.85       10 $

Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Noah          Salmons       26.62 years       4630_CHI_2009

 

 

CHI      16.06 (    2.63   -4.87   -7.50  -18.87   -0.25   12.94)   24.63 minutes   20 appearances     2 B     15.59        8 $

Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Miller        Rose          26.64 years       2326_CHI_2009

 

 

CHI      36.54 (   11.70    0.46  -11.25   29.91    1.30   14.70)   19.43 minutes   11 appearances     5 B     32.12       13 $

Deng          Hunter        Noah          Rose          Salmons       27.99 years       6690_CHI_2009

Here are our latest projected NFL final regular season won lost records.

Team	W	L
Cardinals	10	6
Falcons	8	8
Ravens	10	6
Bills	6	10
Panthers	7	9
Bears	6	10
Bengals	10	6
Browns	4	12
Cowboys	10	6
Broncos	9	7
Lions	2	14
Packers	10	6
Texans	8	8
Colts	15	1
Jaguars	8	8
Chiefs	3	13
Dolphins	8	8
Vikings	13	3
Patriots	11	5
Saints	15	1
Giants	9	7
Jets	8	8
Raiders	6	10
Eagles	11	5
Steelers	7	9
Rams	1	15
Chargers	12	4
49ers	8	8
Seahawks	5	11
Buccaneers	2	14
Titans	8	8
Redskins	5	11

 

So it looks like the following teams should make the playoffs

NFC: Saints, Vikings, Eagles, and Cardinals win their divisions with Packers and Cowboys in as wild cards.

AFC: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, and Bengals win their divisions with the Ravens and fading Broncos as the wild cards.

            These simulations are based on the following team ratings. We use minimizing absolute errors instead of squared errors this week. This emphasizes a team’s typical performance more than “outliers.” We find, for example, the Colts are 14.29 points better than an average team. The Colts are 9.07 points per game better than average on offense and 5.21 points better than average on defense.  We measure offense and defense simply by points scored and points given up.  Note the Jets are a much better team than their record indicates.

 

	offense	defense	total	rank off	rank def	overall
Cardinals	1.08	-0.73	1.81	15	15	16
Falcons	1.58	2.79	-1.21	13	23	21
Ravens	6.03	-1.10	7.13	5	14	7
Bills	-3.35	-3.63	0.28	23	7	17
Panthers	-2.92	-2.71	-0.21	22	9	19
Bears	-8.92	-3.21	-5.71	29	8	25
Bengals	-4.75	-1.21	-3.53	24	11	22
Browns	-10.49	5.45	-15.94	31	30	32
Cowboys	1.08	-3.98	5.06	16	4	10
Broncos	-1.16	-3.71	2.55	20	6	14
Lions	-5.92	8.43	-14.34	25	32	30
Packers	4.58	0.65	3.93	9	19	11
Texans	4.58	1.78	2.80	8	21	13
Colts	9.07	-5.21	14.29	2	3	1
Jaguars	-2.92	-1.72	-1.20	21	10	20
Chiefs	-5.92	4.29	-10.21	28	28	28
Dolphins	4.23	-1.16	5.39	11	13	8
Vikings	8.23	-1.21	9.44	3	12	5
Patriots	5.46	-7.28	12.74	7	2	2
Saints	13.08	2.79	10.29	1	25	3
Giants	2.61	2.79	-0.18	12	24	18
Jets	1.15	-8.60	9.75	14	1	4
Raiders	-9.42	1.74	-11.16	30	20	29
Eagles	7.08	-0.21	7.29	4	16	6
Steelers	-0.42	3.29	-3.70	18	26	23
Rams	-11.42	4.36	-15.78	32	29	31
Chargers	4.43	2.23	2.20	10	22	15
49ers	-0.91	-3.96	3.05	19	5	12
Seahawks	0.63	5.79	-5.16	17	31	24
Buccaneers	-5.92	3.29	-9.21	26	27	27
Titans	5.46	0.21	5.25	6	18	9
Redskins	-5.92	-0.21	-5.71	27	17	26

 

Here are team schedule strengths (in points per game better or worse than average)

	strength	rank
Cardinals	-0.70	18
Falcons	3.05	4
Ravens	-1.98	25
Bills	2.67	6
Panthers	2.54	7
Bears	-1.65	24
Bengals	-2.52	28
Browns	-0.86	19
Cowboys	-1.21	20
Broncos	-1.28	21
Lions	-0.68	17
Packers	-3.87	31
Texans	1.14	11
Colts	1.82	10
Jaguars	2.42	8
Chiefs	-1.60	23
Dolphins	4.70	1
Vikings	-4.21	32
Patriots	4.27	2
Saints	-0.52	16
Giants	-0.12	15
Jets	2.30	9
Raiders	0.06	14
Eagles	-2.06	26
Steelers	-3.56	30
Rams	0.97	12
Chargers	-2.58	29
49ers	0.89	13
Seahawks	-1.48	22
Buccaneers	3.00	5
Titans	3.24	3
Redskins	-2.14	27

 

Note the Dolphins have played the toughest schedule (4.7 points per game tougher than average.)

In this week’s ESPN Magazine it is claimed that Shaq and LeBron is working out great. The article points out that the Cavs are shooting a great percentage on three pointers, the King is driving to the hoop more than ever, and has the highest FG percentage of his career.

     Sorry, but Shaq and LeBron is not working out. All that matter is how the Cavs do on the scoreboard. After adjusting for strength of opponents here are the salient facts:

1. Last year the Cavs played 8.9 points better than average. This year they are playing 3.6 points better than average; 5.3 points worse.
2. When the King is in with Shaq, the Cavs play 2.3 points better than average. When the King is in and Shaq is out, the Cavs play an awesome 13.3 points better than average. Amazingly Big Z and the King in is 13.8 points better than average.
3. What really works is Varejao and the King in without Shaq: 22 points better than average.
4. The foursome of West, Varejao, LeBron and Mo Williams plays an amazing 34 points better than average. Basically any 5th guy works with this.

Please let me know how this data shows Shaq is helping the Cavs.

The 76ers ended their12 game  losing streak by beating Golden State. 

 Then they played the Cavs tough last night As we advised Saturday, the 76ers are not very good when they go big (Andre I, Dalembert and Brand). They got smart and started Holiday (a +5 adjusted +/- ) instead of Brand (-5 rating). Going small paid off with the improved play this week.