June 27, 2011

Thoughts on Rudy as a Mav

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:13 pm

On the Internet people have (http://www.thetwomangame.com/) questioned the Mavs trade for Rudy Fernandez. This is a great deal for the Mavs. Draft picks often do not pan out.  Rudy is still young. There is a good chance the Mavs lose Stevenson and/or Barea to free agency. Here are our Adjusted +/- numbers on Rudy. Our weighted average gives a weight of 3 to last season, 2 to 09-10 and 1 to 08-09

Season Points Offense Defense Impact
08-09 6.8 3.5 -3.3 7
09-10 0.3 5.1 4.8 29
10-11 6.6 5.9 -0.7 13
weighted avg. 4.6 4.4 -0.2 15

Rudy comes out nearly 5 points better than average which is terrific. His average Impact of 15% is much better than you would expect given his points rating.

In the 4th Quarter here is Rudy’s Adjusted +/-.

  • 08-09 +8.5
  • 09-10 +0.3
  • 10-11 +7.5

Since the Mavs have access to our numbers, it does not surprise us that they went for Rudy.

June 13, 2011

Why the Heat went down in Flames

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:48 pm

Earlier today we posted about the great lineup decisions made by Rick Carlisle and his staff. Could Coach Spo done anything different? I believe the Heat made many questionable lineup decisions.

Lebron at #4 was great all season. Why forsake it in the finals?

For the entire season Bosh, Wade, James with Jones or House and no other big guy was fantastic:

  • 105 min Big 3 +Jones plays 40 ppg better than average +76 points
  • 41 min Big 3 +House plays +43 ppg and is +34 points.

Yet we only saw these combos for 3 minutes in the series!!

Chalmers owned Barea; Chalmers should have started Game 5

The Heat realized in Game 6 Chalmers needed to start. But in Games 1-3 Chalmers and Barea in resulted in Heat being +18 points in 42 minutes, so it was clear Chalmers had an edge on on Barea. In Games 4-6 Chalmers continued to own Barea: Heat was +20 points in 50 minutess with Chalmers and Barea in but with Bibby in vs. Barea Mavs were +12 points in 25 minutes.

Heat needed to counter Mavs best lineup and failed.

Kidd Terry Dirk and Chandler in killed  Bosh Wade and James : Mavs were +49 points in 63 minutes. Spo needed to find an answer here. Careful examination shows that with Haslem in for 44 minutes Mavs were +47 points but with Anthony in Heat stayed even in 15 minutes. Anthony should have played more against the Mavs best. His defense  (like Collison’s) really bothered Dirk.

The Heat had a good combination but they hardly used it!

The Heat had a lineup that really hurt the Mavs but they hardly used it: Wade Bosh Haslem Chalmers and Miller or House was +19 points in 24 minutes. I realize this lineup has James sitting, but this lineup let Wade do his thing and gave the Mavs fits. This lineup is also consistent with our prior view that in most situations going small was the way to go.

The Heat rarely put lineups on the floor involving their best players

In this series the 7 Heat players with the Best Adjusted +/- were James, Bosh, Wade, Chalmers, Miller, House and Howard. Yet the Heat played lineups involving these 7 players for only 7 minutes?

Look at how top Heat lineups performed: The two lineups that played by far the most were both outscored big time!

For example Heat lineup 1 played 5.24 points better than average in 66 minutes and was outscored by 5 points.

 1  Anthony     Bosh        James       Wade        Bibby          5.24    65.95  DAL  MIA*     -3.64    -5       82181_MIA_2011
    2  Bosh        Chalmers    Haslem      James       Wade           1.44    59.12  DAL  MIA*    -13.81   -17       16668_MIA_2011
    3  Anthony     Bosh        Chalmers    James       Wade          11.57    26.16  DAL  MIA*     -1.84    -1       16653_MIA_2011
    4  Bosh        Chalmers    Haslem      James       Miller        25.19    20.75  DAL  MIA*     13.89     6        2332_MIA_2011
    5  Bosh        Chalmers    Haslem      Miller      Wade          20.91    15.62  DAL  MIA*      9.22     3       18460_MIA_2011
    6  Bosh        Haslem      James       Miller      Wade          14.41    13.82  DAL  MIA*     -3.47    -1       18708_MIA_2011
    7  Chalmers    Haslem      Howard      James       Miller        39.23    13.05  DAL  MIA*     29.45     8      


Now look at the lineups the Mavs played the most: Three of the 5 lineups that played the most were great.  Inserting Barea in the starting lineups killed off lineups 3 and 4!  Putting Cardinal in killed off lineup 9. Lineups 7 and 8 rested Kidd and Chandler so Mavs took a hit here. I leave it for you to judge which coach did a better job managing their rotations.
    1  Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry         46.56    66.43  MIA  DAL*     31.79    44       21792_DAL_2011
    2  Barea       Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki      19.44    47.51  MIA  DAL*     11.12    11        5410_DAL_2011
    3  Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Stevenson     -2.09    28.00  MIA  DAL*    -12.00    -7       13600_DAL_2011
    4  Barea       Chandler    Nowitzki    Stevenson   Terry        -11.56    17.15  MIA  DAL*    -22.36    -8       28706_DAL_2011
    5  Chandler    Kidd        Nowitzki    Stevenson   Terry         57.74    15.78  MIA  DAL*     42.61    14       28960_DAL_2011
    6  Cardinal    Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Terry         27.51    14.86  MIA  DAL*     16.15     5       17712_DAL_2011
    7  Barea       Mahinmi     Nowitzki    Stevenson   Terry         -6.55    14.82  MIA  DAL*    -16.20    -5       29186_DAL_2011
    8  Barea       Haywood     Nowitzki    Stevenson   Terry        -29.10    10.94  MIA  DAL*    -39.47    -9       28738_DAL_2011
    9  Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Terry       Stojakovic   -56.89     9.66  MIA  DAL*    -59.70   -12   



Mavs Heat Recap

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:16 am

On May 27 we predicted on this website that the Mavs would beat the Heat. This was based on the fact that the Mavs had played 15.1 ppg better than averaqge in the first 3 playoff series and Heat played 10.7 points better than average in first three playoff series.

   So  you probably know the Mavs did win. During the series the Mavs played 13.3 PPg better than average and the Heat 9.6 PPG better than average. So the series played out to within 1 point per game differential relative to our prediction.

While we are not the primary stat analyst for the Mavs (Roland Beech did a great job) the Mavs do subscribe to our player and lineup information. I am not an X and O expert but I think I can walk you through Carlise’s great lineup adjustments that turned the series around. I think I can also show you the Heat made several series errors in lineup selection.

Mavs Adjustment 1: Starting Barea for Stevenson in Game 4

In first 3 games Mavs starting lineup of Kidd Dirk TC Marion and Stevenson was -7  points in 28 minutes while with Barea in Mavs were -14 points in 51 minutes. So Carlisle inserts Barea in for Stevenson. This new lineup was +8 points in 28 minutes in games 4 and 5. The motivation for this move was that Barea owned Bibby (Mavs +17 points in 33 minutes with both in) but Chambers owned Barea (Mavs -38 points in 92 minutes with both in).  Starting Barea out Barea against Bibby instead of Chalmers. Heat figured this out in Game 6 and started Chalmers and then Mavs new starting lineup was ineffective, but the damge had been done. Chalmers should have always been on court against Barea.

Mavs Adjustment 2: Benching Peja after 3 games

In the first three rounds of the playoffs the Mavs rested Dirk effectively with a lineup of TC, Kidd, Terry, Marion and Peja. However this lineup was -12 points in 10 minutes during 1st 3 games and altogether Peja in for Dirk was -24 points in 18 minutes. This certainly costs the Mavs game 3. Carlisle then put Cardinal in for Dirk instead of Peja.  The Terry Marion TC Cardinal Kidd lineup was +9 points in 13 minutes in Games 4-6 including +10 points in game 6!!

Mavs Adjustment 3: If it’s not broken don’t fix it!

Throughout the regular season and first 3 playoff series the Mavs have been fantastic with Terry, Kidd, Dirk and TC on the floor. This quartet played 29 PPG better than average in all their minutes (after adjusting for strength of opponent). Against Heat they were even better: 83 minutes +60 points played and 49 ppg better than average.  Fifth was Stevenson or Marion. This quartet outscored Heat every game including +25 points in amazing game 2 win. So Mavs key “adjustment” was to stay with this deadly lineup to close games  until Heat found an answer

I need to leave for my son’s college orientation so I will analyze the Heat’s errors later tonight

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