URUGUAY 2 GHANA 1 61% CHANCE URUGUAY ADVANCES
BRAZIL 2 NETHERLANDS 1 65% CHANCE BRAZIL ADVANCES
June 30, 2010
June 29, 2010
World Cup Rankings and Odds
Here are my rankings and odds for the Final 8! For example, Brazil is .99 goals better than average on offense, .63 goals better than average on defense and 1.62 goals better than average overall. Brazil has 27% chance to win the World Cup.
| Rank | Team | off | def | Rating | Chance |
| 1 | BRAZIL | 0.99 | -0.63 | 1.62 | 0.27 |
| 2 | ARGENTINA | 0.72 | -0.76 | 1.49 | 0.2 |
| 3 | SPAIN | 0.70 | -0.63 | 1.33 | 0.18 |
| 4 | GERMANY | 0.69 | -0.49 | 1.18 | 0.12 |
| 5 | NETHERLANDS | 0.46 | -0.49 | 0.96 | 0.09 |
| 7 | URUGUAY | 0.41 | -0.31 | 0.72 | 0.08 |
| 12 | GHANA | 0.11 | -0.12 | 0.23 | 0.03 |
| 13 | PARAGUAY | -0.32 | -0.54 | 0.22 | 0.03 |
June 28, 2010
World Cup Picks June 29
PARAGUAY 1 JAPAN 1 PARAGUAY ADVANCES ON PENALTY KICKS PARAGUAY 55% CHANCE OF ADVANCING.
SPAIN 2 PORTUGAL 1 SPAIN 78% CHANCE OF ADVANCING.
June 27, 2010
World Cup June 28 Picks
NETHERLANDS 2 SLOVAKIA 1 NETHERLANDS 84% CHANCE TO ADVANCE
BRAZIL 2 CHILE 1 BRAZIL 80% CHANCE TO ADVANCE
June 26, 2010
World Cup Picks June 27
ENGLAND 1 GERMANY 1 (DECIDED ON PENALTY KICKS) ENGLAND 51% CHANCE TO ADVANCE
ARGENTINA 2 MEXICO 1 ARGENTINA 74% TO ADVANCE
June 25, 2010
World Cup Odds and Ratings; June 26 Picks
Using the Palisades add in @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation here are chances each team wins the World Cup. For example, Brazil has a 23% chance of winning. We estimate Brazil is .92 goals better than average on offense and .60 goals better than average on defense.
| Team | Prob | Off | Def | Rating |
| BRAZIL | 0.230 | 0.918 | -0.598 | 1.516 |
| ARGENTINA | 0.185 | 0.624 | -0.787 | 1.411 |
| SPAIN | 0.127 | 0.787 | -0.540 | 1.327 |
| NETHERLANDS | 0.120 | 0.479 | -0.544 | 1.023 |
| URUGUAY | 0.072 | 0.384 | -0.336 | 0.720 |
| GERMANY | 0.063 | 0.419 | -0.476 | 0.896 |
| ENGLAND | 0.060 | 0.239 | -0.679 | 0.917 |
| PORTUGAL | 0.039 | 0.547 | -0.196 | 0.743 |
| USA | 0.035 | 0.486 | 0.121 | 0.365 |
| MEXICO | 0.015 | 0.213 | -0.179 | 0.392 |
| JAPAN | 0.013 | -0.133 | -0.225 | 0.092 |
| PARAGUAY | 0.013 | -0.254 | -0.478 | 0.224 |
| Ghana | 0.011 | -0.006 | 0.015 | -0.021 |
| SOUTH KOREA | 0.007 | -0.056 | 0.041 | -0.098 |
| CHILE | 0.007 | -0.037 | -0.198 | 0.161 |
| SLOVAKIA | 0.002 | -0.112 | 0.524 | -0.636 |
For tomorrow I pick US 2 Ghana 1 and Uruguay 2 South Korea 1!
June 24, 2010
World Cup Picks June 25
BRAZIL 2 PORTUGAL 1
IVORY COAST 2 NORTH KOREA 1
SPAIN 2 CHILE 1
SWITZERLAND 1 HONDURAS 1
June 23, 2010
World Cup Predictions June 24
ITALY 2 SLOVAKIA 1
PARAGUAY 2 NEW ZEALAND 0
DENMARK 1 JAPAN 1
NETHERLANDS 2 CAMEROONS 0
June 22, 2010
World Cup Predictions for June 23
SLOVENIA 1 ENGLAND 1
USA 2 ALGERIA 1
GERMANY 2 GHANA 1
SERBIA 1 AUSTRALIA 1
GO USA! 68% CHANCE TO MOVE ON!!
June 21, 2010
World Cup Picks June 22
MEXICO 1 URUGUAY 1
NIGERIA 1 SOUTH KOREA 1
FRANCE 1 SOUTH AFRICA 1
ARGENTINA 2 GREECE 0