March 28, 2018

NBA Ratings March 28

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:27 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 5.60 -4.98 10.58
2 Toronto Raptors 5.93 -0.96 6.89
3 Philadelphia 76ers 2.51 -2.80 5.31
4 Utah Jazz -2.11 -7.21 5.10
5 Portland Trail Blazers 0.90 -3.38 4.29
6 Golden State Warriors 4.65 0.48 4.17
7 San Antonio Spurs -3.63 -7.63 4.00
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.46 -0.92 3.39
9 Boston Celtics -3.09 -6.16 3.07
10 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.68 1.15 2.53
11 Los Angeles Clippers 4.97 2.64 2.34
12 Miami Heat -1.56 -3.83 2.27
13 Indiana Pacers -2.92 -4.82 1.90
14 Charlotte Hornets 3.42 2.32 1.10
15 Denver Nuggets 4.69 3.83 0.86
16 New Orleans Pelicans 4.45 3.75 0.70
17 Washington Wizards 1.01 0.52 0.49
18 Detroit Pistons -3.16 -2.81 -0.34
19 Milwaukee Bucks 0.05 0.46 -0.41
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 4.08 4.73 -0.64
21 Los Angeles Lakers 2.25 2.97 -0.72
22 Dallas Mavericks -2.95 -0.99 -1.96
23 New York Knicks -1.39 3.00 -4.39
24 Orlando Magic -3.33 1.23 -4.56
25 Brooklyn Nets -0.56 4.16 -4.72
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.58 2.39 -5.96
27 Sacramento Kings -6.27 0.33 -6.59
28 Memphis Grizzlies -9.15 -0.67 -8.47
29 Chicago Bulls -2.68 5.88 -8.56
30 Phoenix Suns -4.30 7.35 -11.65

March 24, 2018

NBA Ratings March 24

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:23 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 5.62 -4.38 9.99
2 Toronto Raptors 6.35 -1.33 7.68
3 Golden State Warriors 6.09 0.55 5.54
4 San Antonio Spurs -3.99 -8.62 4.62
5 Philadelphia 76ers 1.77 -2.82 4.60
6 Utah Jazz -2.46 -6.85 4.39
7 Portland Trail Blazers 0.78 -3.28 4.06
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.37 -1.22 3.59
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 4.11 0.53 3.58
10 Boston Celtics -2.98 -6.01 3.03
11 Miami Heat -1.49 -3.26 1.78
12 Los Angeles Clippers 4.84 3.12 1.72
13 Indiana Pacers -3.08 -4.21 1.13
14 Denver Nuggets 4.60 3.49 1.11
15 New Orleans Pelicans 5.01 3.92 1.10
16 Charlotte Hornets 2.68 1.82 0.86
17 Washington Wizards 0.89 0.36 0.53
18 Cleveland Cavaliers 4.66 5.05 -0.38
19 Milwaukee Bucks 0.05 0.60 -0.55
20 Los Angeles Lakers 2.29 2.88 -0.59
21 Detroit Pistons -3.69 -2.86 -0.83
22 Dallas Mavericks -2.79 -0.81 -1.98
23 Orlando Magic -3.22 1.24 -4.46
24 Brooklyn Nets -0.73 3.80 -4.53
25 New York Knicks -2.15 2.57 -4.72
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.81 2.15 -5.96
27 Sacramento Kings -6.14 0.10 -6.24
28 Chicago Bulls -2.27 5.64 -7.91
29 Memphis Grizzlies -9.09 0.10 -9.19
30 Phoenix Suns -4.21 7.73 -11.94

Elite 8 odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:42 am
Team 3 4 5 6 >=4 >=5 6
Villanova 26.66% 31.66% 8.58% 33.10% 73.34% 41.68% 33.10%
DUKE 37.82% 27.98% 8.22% 25.98% 62.18% 34.20% 25.98%
MICH 37.98% 17.68% 29.48% 14.86% 62.02% 44.34% 14.86%
KANSAS 62.18% 22.26% 4.86% 10.70% 37.82% 15.56% 10.70%
FSU 62.02% 13.74% 18.64% 5.60% 37.98% 24.24% 5.60%
TEX TECH 73.34% 18.10% 3.62% 4.94% 26.66% 8.56% 4.94%
K STATE 37.68% 39.76% 18.82% 3.74% 62.32% 22.56% 3.74%
LOYOLA 62.32% 28.82% 7.78% 1.08% 37.68% 8.86% 1.08%

March 20, 2018

NBA Ratings March 20

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:18 pm
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 5.93 -4.42 10.35
2 Toronto Raptors 6.68 -1.67 8.36
3 Golden State Warriors 6.67 0.97 5.70
4 Utah Jazz -3.57 -8.51 4.93
5 San Antonio Spurs -4.66 -9.29 4.63
6 Portland Trail Blazers 0.72 -3.63 4.35
7 Philadelphia 76ers 1.07 -2.96 4.03
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.68 -0.93 3.61
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 4.11 0.74 3.38
10 Boston Celtics -3.13 -5.80 2.66
11 Los Angeles Clippers 4.47 2.53 1.94
12 Miami Heat -1.67 -2.94 1.27
13 Indiana Pacers -2.46 -3.56 1.09
14 New Orleans Pelicans 5.17 4.19 0.98
15 Washington Wizards 1.65 0.80 0.85
16 Denver Nuggets 4.28 4.35 -0.07
17 Milwaukee Bucks -0.59 -0.04 -0.55
18 Los Angeles Lakers 1.75 2.43 -0.69
19 Charlotte Hornets 1.69 2.66 -0.97
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.99 5.05 -1.06
21 Dallas Mavericks -3.14 -1.55 -1.58
22 Detroit Pistons -3.77 -1.89 -1.88
23 Orlando Magic -2.32 1.81 -4.14
24 New York Knicks -1.84 2.51 -4.35
25 Brooklyn Nets -0.85 4.03 -4.89
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.19 3.15 -6.34
27 Chicago Bulls -1.89 4.75 -6.64
28 Sacramento Kings -6.02 0.66 -6.67
29 Memphis Grizzlies -8.68 -1.17 -7.51
30 Phoenix Suns -3.06 7.74 -10.81

March 19, 2018

Sweet 16 odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:48 am

What a weekend!. Unfortunately Duke is now the favorite to win it all. Dook has a 22.84% chance to win and 55% chance to make Final 4

Team 2 3 4 5 6
DUKE 14.88% 29.98% 24.30% 8.00% 22.84%
Villanova 32.74% 19.12% 19.34% 6.86% 21.94%
KANSAS 30.80% 36.70% 16.56% 5.88% 10.06%
ZAGS 34.86% 29.18% 12.18% 14.70% 9.08%
MICH 37.56% 28.18% 12.00% 14.00% 8.26%
UK 38.94% 21.04% 21.54% 12.66% 5.82%
WVA 67.26% 14.72% 9.74% 3.22% 5.06%
PURDUE 45.06% 35.22% 11.66% 3.50% 4.56%
TEX TECH 54.94% 30.94% 9.24% 2.14% 2.74%
TEX A&M 62.44% 21.40% 7.50% 6.26% 2.40%
NEVADA 36.28% 36.22% 17.24% 8.28% 1.98%
FSU 65.14% 21.24% 6.64% 5.14% 1.84%
K STATE 61.06% 17.24% 14.62% 5.38% 1.70%
CLEMSON 69.20% 22.26% 6.08% 1.44% 1.02%
LOYOLA 63.72% 25.50% 8.28% 2.12% 0.38%
SYR 85.12% 11.06% 3.08% 0.42% 0.32%
>=3 >=4 >=5 6
DUKE 85.12% 55.14% 30.84% 22.84%
Villanova 67.26% 48.14% 28.80% 21.94%
KANSAS 69.20% 32.50% 15.94% 10.06%
ZAGS 65.14% 35.96% 23.78% 9.08%
MICH 62.44% 34.26% 22.26% 8.26%
UK 61.06% 40.02% 18.48% 5.82%
WVA 32.74% 18.02% 8.28% 5.06%
PURDUE 54.94% 19.72% 8.06% 4.56%
TEX TECH 45.06% 14.12% 4.88% 2.74%
TEX A&M 37.56% 16.16% 8.66% 2.40%
NEVADA 63.72% 27.50% 10.26% 1.98%
FSU 34.86% 13.62% 6.98% 1.84%
K STATE 38.94% 21.70% 7.08% 1.70%
CLEMSON 30.80% 8.54% 2.46% 1.02%
LOYOLA 36.28% 10.78% 2.50% 0.38%
SYR 14.88% 3.82% 0.74% 0.32%

March 17, 2018

Updated NCAA odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:16 am

16 beating a 1 is always more likely than all 4 #1 seeds making final 4 and it finally happened!

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Villanova 12.10% 22.52% 15.16% 16.82% 9.96% 23.44%
2 CINN 23.68% 25.56% 14.40% 13.86% 11.04% 11.46%
3 KANSAS 23.58% 22.88% 21.76% 14.24% 6.78% 10.76%
4 DUKE 24.18% 31.34% 20.28% 12.26% 5.26% 6.68%
5 UNC 31.20% 27.72% 16.32% 10.10% 8.24% 6.42%
6 MSU 21.20% 36.40% 19.50% 12.50% 4.24% 6.16%
7 ZAGS 37.44% 25.66% 17.74% 8.74% 5.68% 4.74%
8 TENN 22.36% 42.52% 13.20% 11.56% 6.04% 4.32%
9 MICH 36.96% 31.26% 14.72% 8.04% 5.12% 3.90%
10 WVA 11.50% 58.82% 12.72% 9.64% 3.82% 3.50%
11 XAVIER 37.44% 29.92% 17.00% 7.62% 5.10% 2.92%
12 UK 25.14% 27.62% 27.10% 12.10% 5.44% 2.60%
13 PURDUE 39.20% 27.80% 21.02% 6.70% 2.92% 2.36%
14 TEX TECH 43.64% 26.84% 19.90% 5.82% 2.06% 1.74%
15 AUB 42.46% 34.72% 13.36% 6.02% 1.86% 1.58%
16 K STATE 11.52% 46.74% 28.30% 8.56% 3.66% 1.22%
17 OHIO ST. 62.56% 20.48% 9.74% 3.88% 2.28% 1.06%
18 HOUS 63.04% 22.48% 8.58% 3.66% 1.46% 0.78%
19 FLORIDA 56.36% 23.28% 15.04% 3.52% 1.04% 0.76%
20 TEX A&M 68.80% 18.54% 7.32% 3.10% 1.54% 0.70%
21 CLEMSON 57.54% 28.82% 9.12% 3.00% 0.90% 0.62%
22 FSU 62.56% 23.94% 8.58% 3.06% 1.24% 0.62%
23 BUT 60.80% 22.08% 12.80% 3.08% 0.70% 0.54%
24 SETON HALL 76.42% 13.58% 6.72% 2.16% 0.80% 0.32%
25 NEVADA 76.32% 14.00% 5.28% 2.76% 1.32% 0.32%
26 SYR 78.80% 15.88% 4.06% 0.92% 0.20% 0.14%
27 RIU 75.82% 16.38% 5.20% 1.94% 0.52% 0.14%
28 BUFF 74.86% 15.44% 7.50% 1.84% 0.28% 0.08%
29 LOYOLA 77.64% 17.92% 2.98% 1.06% 0.32% 0.08%
30 ALA 87.90% 7.84% 2.76% 1.32% 0.14% 0.04%
31 MARSHALL 88.50% 10.82% 0.60% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00%
32 UMBC 88.48% 10.20% 1.24% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00%

Chance of each team winning >=n games.

>=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Villanova 87.90% 65.38% 50.22% 33.40% 23.44%
CINN 76.32% 50.76% 36.36% 22.50% 11.46%
KANSAS 76.42% 53.54% 31.78% 17.54% 10.76%
DUKE 75.82% 44.48% 24.20% 11.94% 6.68%
UNC 68.80% 41.08% 24.76% 14.66% 6.42%
MSU 78.80% 42.40% 22.90% 10.40% 6.16%
ZAGS 62.56% 36.90% 19.16% 10.42% 4.74%
TENN 77.64% 35.12% 21.92% 10.36% 4.32%
MICH 63.04% 31.78% 17.06% 9.02% 3.90%
WVA 88.50% 29.68% 16.96% 7.32% 3.50%
XAVIER 62.56% 32.64% 15.64% 8.02% 2.92%
UK 74.86% 47.24% 20.14% 8.04% 2.60%
PURDUE 60.80% 33.00% 11.98% 5.28% 2.36%
TEX TECH 56.36% 29.52% 9.62% 3.80% 1.74%
AUB 57.54% 22.82% 9.46% 3.44% 1.58%
K STATE 88.48% 41.74% 13.44% 4.88% 1.22%
OHIO ST. 37.44% 16.96% 7.22% 3.34% 1.06%
HOUS 36.96% 14.48% 5.90% 2.24% 0.78%
FLORIDA 43.64% 20.36% 5.32% 1.80% 0.76%
TEX A&M 31.20% 12.66% 5.34% 2.24% 0.70%
CLEMSON 42.46% 13.64% 4.52% 1.52% 0.62%
FSU 37.44% 13.50% 4.92% 1.86% 0.62%
BUT 39.20% 17.12% 4.32% 1.24% 0.54%
SETON HALL 23.58% 10.00% 3.28% 1.12% 0.32%
NEVADA 23.68% 9.68% 4.40% 1.64% 0.32%
SYR 21.20% 5.32% 1.26% 0.34% 0.14%
RIU 24.18% 7.80% 2.60% 0.66% 0.14%
BUFF 25.14% 9.70% 2.20% 0.36% 0.08%
LOYOLA 22.36% 4.44% 1.46% 0.40% 0.08%
ALA 12.10% 4.26% 1.50% 0.18% 0.04%
MARSHALL 11.50% 0.68% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
UMBC 11.52% 1.32% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%

March 12, 2018

NBA Ratings March 12

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:41 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 6.41 -3.75 10.16
2 Toronto Raptors 6.40 -2.64 9.04
3 Golden State Warriors 8.70 2.09 6.61
4 Philadelphia 76ers 1.36 -3.01 4.37
5 Utah Jazz -3.77 -7.78 4.01
6 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.42 -0.28 3.70
7 Boston Celtics -2.30 -5.85 3.55
8 Portland Trail Blazers 0.39 -2.99 3.38
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.34 -1.62 2.96
10 San Antonio Spurs -3.90 -6.75 2.85
11 Los Angeles Clippers 4.84 2.53 2.31
12 Miami Heat -2.87 -4.80 1.94
13 Indiana Pacers -1.73 -2.72 0.98
14 Washington Wizards 1.18 0.34 0.83
15 Denver Nuggets 3.39 3.05 0.35
16 New Orleans Pelicans 5.97 5.81 0.16
17 Charlotte Hornets 1.96 2.16 -0.19
18 Milwaukee Bucks -1.91 -1.69 -0.22
19 Los Angeles Lakers 3.02 3.66 -0.63
20 Detroit Pistons -2.74 -1.39 -1.35
21 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.36 5.13 -1.77
22 Dallas Mavericks -3.83 -1.80 -2.03
23 Orlando Magic -1.26 2.14 -3.40
24 New York Knicks -1.94 3.10 -5.04
25 Brooklyn Nets -1.85 3.36 -5.20
26 Atlanta Hawks -4.01 1.80 -5.81
27 Chicago Bulls -1.09 4.98 -6.07
28 Memphis Grizzlies -9.33 -1.87 -7.47
29 Sacramento Kings -6.57 1.35 -7.92
30 Phoenix Suns -2.67 7.43 -10.11

March 11, 2018

NCAA picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:26 pm

Here are NCAA picks based on Sagarin ratings. So Nova has 20.92% chance to win tournament, an 11.32% chance to win exactly 5 games, etc.

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Villanova 0.72% 13.56% 17.82% 18.98% 16.68% 11.32% 20.92%
UVA 0.88% 19.30% 17.62% 20.96% 13.02% 11.90% 16.32%
KANSAS 3.98% 20.06% 21.18% 21.76% 15.48% 7.84% 9.70%
CINN 6.32% 21.42% 22.08% 23.32% 10.16% 8.48% 8.22%
UNC 2.70% 25.28% 24.64% 18.82% 13.58% 7.80% 7.18%
PURDUE 2.60% 27.92% 22.42% 24.94% 10.26% 5.64% 6.22%
DUKE 4.68% 21.34% 29.78% 19.84% 12.44% 5.70% 6.22%
MSU 9.50% 25.82% 28.82% 16.12% 10.60% 4.86% 4.28%
ZAGS 9.94% 30.00% 26.80% 15.66% 9.50% 4.70% 3.40%
XAVIER 1.04% 43.50% 26.18% 14.80% 8.84% 3.34% 2.30%
TENN 7.52% 31.10% 33.60% 16.30% 6.18% 3.26% 2.04%
MICH 17.04% 28.70% 28.62% 12.12% 8.24% 3.28% 2.00%
AUB 11.66% 35.20% 32.52% 11.88% 5.56% 1.76% 1.42%
TEX TECH 10.82% 31.96% 31.84% 17.00% 5.12% 1.90% 1.36%
MIZZOU 34.78% 32.08% 15.50% 9.10% 5.22% 2.06% 1.26%
WICH ST 11.42% 31.84% 39.02% 8.72% 5.36% 2.44% 1.20%
UK 31.54% 28.70% 26.92% 7.40% 3.48% 1.20% 0.76%
ARI 27.40% 33.94% 27.10% 6.90% 2.48% 1.50% 0.68%
OHIO ST. 28.22% 41.06% 17.02% 8.18% 3.82% 1.10% 0.60%
CLEMSON 35.02% 32.68% 21.02% 6.88% 2.90% 1.06% 0.44%
TCU 32.18% 42.36% 15.28% 6.72% 2.42% 0.60% 0.44%
HOUS 35.58% 35.36% 18.20% 6.54% 3.06% 0.84% 0.42%
CREIGHTON 46.68% 42.08% 5.50% 3.48% 1.40% 0.56% 0.30%
FLORIDA 35.12% 35.72% 18.96% 7.46% 1.82% 0.64% 0.28%
WVA 31.20% 37.08% 24.34% 4.56% 1.86% 0.72% 0.24%
MIAMI 45.98% 32.60% 14.54% 4.80% 1.40% 0.48% 0.20%
TEX A&M 41.88% 40.46% 9.68% 4.80% 2.12% 0.86% 0.20%
ARK 47.86% 35.50% 8.46% 6.10% 1.50% 0.40% 0.18%
K STATE 53.32% 37.86% 4.58% 2.80% 0.92% 0.34% 0.18%
LOYOLA 54.02% 29.96% 11.40% 3.42% 0.92% 0.16% 0.12%
TEX 48.48% 37.68% 8.14% 4.26% 0.90% 0.42% 0.12%
SETON HALL 39.36% 44.84% 8.46% 5.00% 1.82% 0.42% 0.10%
VA. TECH 44.50% 46.74% 4.90% 2.78% 0.86% 0.14% 0.08%
BUT 52.14% 34.22% 7.18% 5.06% 1.06% 0.26% 0.08%
DAVIDSON 68.46% 18.80% 10.54% 1.70% 0.38% 0.04% 0.08%
FSU 65.22% 23.40% 7.08% 2.92% 1.00% 0.30% 0.08%
PROV 58.12% 31.80% 5.96% 2.66% 1.16% 0.22% 0.08%
OKLA 49.76% 37.96% 8.60% 2.68% 0.76% 0.18% 0.06%
SD ST. 64.42% 24.02% 8.46% 2.20% 0.68% 0.16% 0.06%
NEW MEX ST 64.98% 22.62% 9.32% 2.26% 0.60% 0.18% 0.04%
RIU 50.24% 36.80% 9.20% 2.86% 0.66% 0.20% 0.04%
NEVADA 51.52% 35.86% 8.02% 3.48% 0.84% 0.24% 0.04%
ALA 55.50% 39.04% 3.54% 1.28% 0.46% 0.16% 0.02%
MONT 82.96% 11.92% 4.20% 0.62% 0.26% 0.02% 0.02%
UCLA 80.38% 13.02% 5.02% 1.34% 0.18% 0.04% 0.02%
MARSHALL 88.58% 9.06% 2.18% 0.12% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00%
MURRAY 68.80% 22.02% 8.14% 0.74% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00%
SFA 89.18% 8.62% 2.00% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
CAL FULL 97.40% 2.36% 0.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
PENN 96.02% 3.08% 0.80% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NC ST 60.64% 32.02% 4.74% 1.74% 0.72% 0.14% 0.00%
CHARLESTON 88.34% 9.50% 1.96% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
BUCK 90.50% 7.54% 1.70% 0.22% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
IONA 95.32% 3.90% 0.72% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
UMBC 99.12% 0.76% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
BUFF 72.60% 18.56% 7.62% 0.98% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00%
WRIGHT 92.48% 6.34% 1.14% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
GSU 93.68% 5.04% 1.08% 0.18% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00%
UNC GREENS 90.06% 7.90% 1.72% 0.30% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
SOUTH DAK 71.78% 21.04% 5.68% 1.28% 0.16% 0.06% 0.00%
LIPS 97.30% 2.46% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
LIU 99.94% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
RADFORD 99.34% 0.60% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NC CENTRAL 99.70% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEXAS SO. 99.26% 0.72% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
ST. BON 84.50% 10.68% 3.90% 0.72% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00%
ARI. ST. 83.72% 12.42% 2.78% 0.90% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00%
SYR 84.10% 11.86% 3.12% 0.80% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%

Here is the chance of each team winning >=n games. So Nova has 48.92% chance of winning >=4 games (making final 4.)

 

>=1 >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Villanova 99.28% 85.72% 67.90% 48.92% 32.24% 20.92%
UVA 99.12% 79.82% 62.20% 41.24% 28.22% 16.32%
KANSAS 96.02% 75.96% 54.78% 33.02% 17.54% 9.70%
CINN 93.68% 72.26% 50.18% 26.86% 16.70% 8.22%
UNC 97.30% 72.02% 47.38% 28.56% 14.98% 7.18%
PURDUE 97.40% 69.48% 47.06% 22.12% 11.86% 6.22%
DUKE 95.32% 73.98% 44.20% 24.36% 11.92% 6.22%
MSU 90.50% 64.68% 35.86% 19.74% 9.14% 4.28%
ZAGS 90.06% 60.06% 33.26% 17.60% 8.10% 3.40%
XAVIER 98.96% 55.46% 29.28% 14.48% 5.64% 2.30%
TENN 92.48% 61.38% 27.78% 11.48% 5.30% 2.04%
MICH 82.96% 54.26% 25.64% 13.52% 5.28% 2.00%
AUB 88.34% 53.14% 20.62% 8.74% 3.18% 1.42%
TEX TECH 89.18% 57.22% 25.38% 8.38% 3.26% 1.36%
MIZZOU 65.22% 33.14% 17.64% 8.54% 3.32% 1.26%
WICH ST 88.58% 56.74% 17.72% 9.00% 3.64% 1.20%
UK 68.46% 39.76% 12.84% 5.44% 1.96% 0.76%
ARI 72.60% 38.66% 11.56% 4.66% 2.18% 0.68%
OHIO ST. 71.78% 30.72% 13.70% 5.52% 1.70% 0.60%
CLEMSON 64.98% 32.30% 11.28% 4.40% 1.50% 0.44%
TCU 67.82% 25.46% 10.18% 3.46% 1.04% 0.44%
HOUS 64.42% 29.06% 10.86% 4.32% 1.26% 0.42%
CREIGHTON 53.32% 11.24% 5.74% 2.26% 0.86% 0.30%
FLORIDA 64.88% 29.16% 10.20% 2.74% 0.92% 0.28%
WVA 68.80% 31.72% 7.38% 2.82% 0.96% 0.24%
MIAMI 54.02% 21.42% 6.88% 2.08% 0.68% 0.20%
TEX A&M 58.12% 17.66% 7.98% 3.18% 1.06% 0.20%
ARK 52.14% 16.64% 8.18% 2.08% 0.58% 0.18%
K STATE 46.68% 8.82% 4.24% 1.44% 0.52% 0.18%
LOYOLA 45.98% 16.02% 4.62% 1.20% 0.28% 0.12%
TEX 51.52% 13.84% 5.70% 1.44% 0.54% 0.12%
SETON HALL 60.64% 15.80% 7.34% 2.34% 0.52% 0.10%
VA. TECH 55.50% 8.76% 3.86% 1.08% 0.22% 0.08%
BUT 47.86% 13.64% 6.46% 1.40% 0.34% 0.08%
DAVIDSON 31.54% 12.74% 2.20% 0.50% 0.12% 0.08%
FSU 34.78% 11.38% 4.30% 1.38% 0.38% 0.08%
PROV 41.88% 10.08% 4.12% 1.46% 0.30% 0.08%
OKLA 50.24% 12.28% 3.68% 1.00% 0.24% 0.06%
SD ST. 35.58% 11.56% 3.10% 0.90% 0.22% 0.06%
NEW MEX ST 35.02% 12.40% 3.08% 0.82% 0.22% 0.04%
RIU 49.76% 12.96% 3.76% 0.90% 0.24% 0.04%
NEVADA 48.48% 12.62% 4.60% 1.12% 0.28% 0.04%
ALA 44.50% 5.46% 1.92% 0.64% 0.18% 0.02%
MONT 17.04% 5.12% 0.92% 0.30% 0.04% 0.02%
UCLA 19.62% 6.60% 1.58% 0.24% 0.06% 0.02%
MARSHALL 11.42% 2.36% 0.18% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00%
MURRAY 31.20% 9.18% 1.04% 0.30% 0.04% 0.00%
SFA 10.82% 2.20% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
CAL FULL 2.60% 0.24% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
PENN 3.98% 0.90% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NC ST 39.36% 7.34% 2.60% 0.86% 0.14% 0.00%
CHARLESTON 11.66% 2.16% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
BUCK 9.50% 1.96% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
IONA 4.68% 0.78% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
UMBC 0.88% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
BUFF 27.40% 8.84% 1.22% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00%
WRIGHT 7.52% 1.18% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
GSU 6.32% 1.28% 0.20% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00%
UNC GREENS 9.94% 2.04% 0.32% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
SOUTH DAK 28.22% 7.18% 1.50% 0.22% 0.06% 0.00%
LIPS 2.70% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
LIU 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
RADFORD 0.66% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NC CENTRAL 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TEXAS SO. 0.74% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
ST. BON 15.50% 4.82% 0.92% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00%
ARI. ST. 16.28% 3.86% 1.08% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00%
SYR 15.90% 4.04% 0.92% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%

 

March 6, 2018

NBA Ratings March 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:00 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 6.35 -2.90 9.25
2 Toronto Raptors 6.11 -2.67 8.78
3 Golden State Warriors 9.57 1.89 7.68
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.45 -0.30 3.75
5 Philadelphia 76ers 0.51 -3.02 3.53
6 Boston Celtics -2.39 -5.91 3.53
7 San Antonio Spurs -3.69 -6.69 3.00
8 Los Angeles Clippers 5.27 2.70 2.57
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.27 -1.28 2.55
10 Utah Jazz -4.00 -6.35 2.34
11 Portland Trail Blazers -0.09 -2.37 2.28
12 Charlotte Hornets 1.66 0.60 1.06
13 New Orleans Pelicans 6.77 5.82 0.95
14 Washington Wizards 0.72 -0.17 0.90
15 Indiana Pacers -1.19 -2.05 0.87
16 Miami Heat -4.28 -5.11 0.83
17 Denver Nuggets 2.70 2.29 0.41
18 Milwaukee Bucks -2.00 -1.89 -0.11
19 Los Angeles Lakers 2.68 3.29 -0.61
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.65 5.19 -1.54
21 Detroit Pistons -2.77 -0.93 -1.84
22 Dallas Mavericks -3.83 -0.96 -2.87
23 Orlando Magic -0.34 3.06 -3.40
24 New York Knicks -1.83 2.18 -4.01
25 Atlanta Hawks -3.62 1.23 -4.85
26 Brooklyn Nets -2.05 3.36 -5.41
27 Memphis Grizzlies -8.47 -2.60 -5.87
28 Chicago Bulls -1.66 4.72 -6.38
29 Sacramento Kings -6.01 1.42 -7.43
30 Phoenix Suns -2.50 7.43 -9.93

March 4, 2018

Why is Standard Deviation of NBA scores about point spread 12 points.

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:53 am

The wonderful Steve Ilardi started a great discussion on Twitter concerning variability of margin of victory in NBA games. The standard deviation of the margin of victory relative to the point spread is near 12 points. Can we use basic probability and statistics to explain this fact? We know

  • Average NBA team takes 86 FGA per game
  • EFG is around 50%

For a back of the envelope estimate on the  difference between margin of victory and point spread note that based on teams playing, each team has its own mean EFG (say MeanEFGFav and MeanEFGDog) for that game. What would be the standard deviation of the actual EFG percentage                                           difference (EFGpercentageFav-EFGpercentageDog) for this game? From basic stats standard deviation of observed EFG  percentage     for each team during a game  is sqrt(.5*.5/85).

  •   Therefore standard deviation of difference in observed EFGpercentages for a game is sqrt(2)*sqrt(1/340) = 7.6%.
  • Difference in FGs for games should have a standard deviation of around 85*(.076) which is near 6.
  • This translates to around 12 points.

I am assuming the actual EFGs for each team are independent (probably not true, since team behind probably tries better lineups to make game closer and this would reduce my 6 FG difference number)  and the rest of the analysis is oversimplified, but is comforting (to me at least) to see a reasonable explanation for the  12 point variability about the point spread.

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