Based on the trusted Sagarin ratings here are the chances of each team winning n games. I don’t count the stupid play in round!! SO Gionaga has a 15.86% chance of winning tourney. At 10-1 a good bet!
Team |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
Gonzaga |
1.16% |
12.76% |
31.76% |
13.36% |
15.78% |
9.32% |
15.86% |
UNC |
0.62% |
18.20% |
22.40% |
23.38% |
13.74% |
9.84% |
11.82% |
Villanova |
0.46% |
26.50% |
27.32% |
16.50% |
12.28% |
6.98% |
9.96% |
UK |
1.84% |
34.90% |
21.52% |
17.90% |
9.68% |
6.76% |
7.40% |
WVU |
5.26% |
25.48% |
35.62% |
10.68% |
10.24% |
5.58% |
7.14% |
Kansas |
7.76% |
20.80% |
26.74% |
20.02% |
11.78% |
6.46% |
6.44% |
Louisville |
1.34% |
33.00% |
26.58% |
16.56% |
10.92% |
5.54% |
6.06% |
Duke |
2.14% |
23.52% |
29.98% |
23.26% |
10.62% |
4.92% |
5.56% |
Oregon |
4.10% |
31.78% |
31.12% |
14.52% |
9.42% |
5.00% |
4.06% |
Baylor |
8.12% |
34.96% |
27.88% |
15.92% |
7.30% |
3.06% |
2.76% |
Florida |
10.24% |
41.32% |
26.70% |
10.08% |
6.26% |
2.94% |
2.46% |
UVA |
12.88% |
39.40% |
26.24% |
9.88% |
6.14% |
3.02% |
2.44% |
Purdue |
12.58% |
32.74% |
27.48% |
13.70% |
7.50% |
3.64% |
2.36% |
UCLA |
4.80% |
37.22% |
34.30% |
13.36% |
5.30% |
2.88% |
2.14% |
Wichita St. |
24.16% |
43.92% |
13.96% |
9.02% |
4.48% |
2.40% |
2.06% |
Butler |
6.56% |
25.52% |
40.78% |
15.68% |
6.42% |
3.28% |
1.76% |
FSU |
7.32% |
29.20% |
29.54% |
22.06% |
7.24% |
2.90% |
1.74% |
Arizona |
4.22% |
38.10% |
24.58% |
21.94% |
6.82% |
2.62% |
1.72% |
SMU |
31.88% |
36.12% |
17.22% |
9.38% |
3.32% |
1.18% |
0.90% |
Wisconsin |
27.16% |
49.84% |
13.26% |
4.80% |
3.10% |
1.04% |
0.80% |
St. Mary’s |
33.00% |
35.26% |
14.98% |
11.92% |
3.04% |
1.08% |
0.72% |
Iowa St. |
26.86% |
38.54% |
18.58% |
9.48% |
4.16% |
1.68% |
0.70% |
Cinn |
26.08% |
39.10% |
21.04% |
7.92% |
3.62% |
1.56% |
0.68% |
ND |
19.84% |
53.08% |
18.64% |
4.22% |
2.48% |
1.18% |
0.56% |
Creighton |
30.64% |
41.52% |
16.54% |
6.42% |
3.30% |
1.14% |
0.44% |
Michigan |
49.16% |
32.86% |
10.02% |
4.90% |
1.96% |
0.78% |
0.32% |
Okla. St. |
50.84% |
32.82% |
9.58% |
4.08% |
1.74% |
0.62% |
0.32% |
Xavier |
45.54% |
34.16% |
13.02% |
5.70% |
1.18% |
0.26% |
0.14% |
Miami |
44.24% |
39.44% |
9.98% |
4.22% |
1.64% |
0.34% |
0.14% |
Minn |
37.38% |
40.72% |
16.88% |
3.78% |
0.82% |
0.30% |
0.12% |
South Car |
50.40% |
36.96% |
8.16% |
3.56% |
0.62% |
0.22% |
0.08% |
Arkansas |
45.10% |
43.78% |
6.50% |
3.26% |
1.00% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
Mich St. |
55.76% |
34.20% |
6.74% |
2.58% |
0.56% |
0.12% |
0.04% |
MTSU |
62.62% |
28.30% |
7.48% |
1.34% |
0.16% |
0.06% |
0.04% |
Marquette |
49.60% |
37.50% |
8.52% |
3.38% |
0.86% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
Northwestern |
48.80% |
44.14% |
5.26% |
1.16% |
0.44% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
Vandy |
51.20% |
42.10% |
5.30% |
1.06% |
0.30% |
0.02% |
0.02% |
Maryland |
54.46% |
30.74% |
10.06% |
4.04% |
0.54% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
VCU |
67.00% |
22.64% |
6.44% |
3.22% |
0.56% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
Nevada |
73.14% |
19.30% |
5.96% |
1.22% |
0.36% |
0.00% |
0.02% |
Seton Hall |
54.90% |
37.46% |
4.84% |
2.08% |
0.56% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
DAYTON |
75.84% |
19.46% |
3.18% |
1.16% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.02% |
K. State |
84.00% |
10.88% |
3.64% |
1.10% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
0.02% |
Wake Forest |
84.12% |
11.14% |
3.42% |
1.04% |
0.24% |
0.02% |
0.02% |
Va Tech |
72.84% |
23.22% |
3.00% |
0.64% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.00% |
Wilmington |
87.12% |
10.56% |
2.04% |
0.20% |
0.08% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
ETSU |
89.76% |
8.72% |
1.42% |
0.10% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
New Mex. St. |
91.88% |
6.90% |
1.06% |
0.16% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Troy |
97.86% |
2.02% |
0.12% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
S. Dak. St. |
98.84% |
1.00% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Princeton |
80.16% |
17.16% |
2.38% |
0.28% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Bucknell |
94.74% |
4.28% |
0.90% |
0.08% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
FGCU |
92.68% |
5.90% |
1.20% |
0.22% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
N. Dakota |
95.78% |
4.00% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Vermont |
87.42% |
9.42% |
2.66% |
0.48% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
URI |
69.36% |
23.08% |
5.68% |
1.48% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.00% |
Iona |
95.90% |
3.62% |
0.46% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Jacksonville |
98.66% |
1.32% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Texas Southern |
99.38% |
0.56% |
0.04% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Winthrop |
93.44% |
5.46% |
1.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Kent St. |
95.20% |
4.40% |
0.40% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
N. Kent. |
98.16% |
1.72% |
0.12% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Mt. St. Mary’s |
99.78% |
0.22% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
NO |
99.76% |
0.22% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
NC Central |
92.46% |
5.36% |
1.84% |
0.32% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
UC Davis |
99.78% |
0.20% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Providence |
89.18% |
8.14% |
2.14% |
0.46% |
0.08% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
USC |
84.74% |
11.14% |
3.34% |
0.62% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00%
|
Chnace of winning >=n games is given below. SO the Zags have 41% chance of making final 4.
Team |
>=1 |
>=2 |
>=3 |
>=4 |
>=5 |
>=6 |
Gonzaga |
98.84% |
86.08% |
54.32% |
40.96% |
25.18% |
15.86% |
UNC |
99.38% |
81.18% |
58.78% |
35.40% |
21.66% |
11.82% |
Villanova |
99.54% |
73.04% |
45.72% |
29.22% |
16.94% |
9.96% |
UK |
98.16% |
63.26% |
41.74% |
23.84% |
14.16% |
7.40% |
WVU |
94.74% |
69.26% |
33.64% |
22.96% |
12.72% |
7.14% |
Kansas |
92.24% |
71.44% |
44.70% |
24.68% |
12.90% |
6.44% |
Louisville |
98.66% |
65.66% |
39.08% |
22.52% |
11.60% |
6.06% |
Duke |
97.86% |
74.34% |
44.36% |
21.10% |
10.48% |
5.56% |
Oregon |
95.90% |
64.12% |
33.00% |
18.48% |
9.06% |
4.06% |
Baylor |
91.88% |
56.92% |
29.04% |
13.12% |
5.82% |
2.76% |
Florida |
89.76% |
48.44% |
21.74% |
11.66% |
5.40% |
2.46% |
UVA |
87.12% |
47.72% |
21.48% |
11.60% |
5.46% |
2.44% |
Purdue |
87.42% |
54.68% |
27.20% |
13.50% |
6.00% |
2.36% |
UCLA |
95.20% |
57.98% |
23.68% |
10.32% |
5.02% |
2.14% |
Wichita St. |
75.84% |
31.92% |
17.96% |
8.94% |
4.46% |
2.06% |
Butler |
93.44% |
67.92% |
27.14% |
11.46% |
5.04% |
1.76% |
FSU |
92.68% |
63.48% |
33.94% |
11.88% |
4.64% |
1.74% |
Arizona |
95.78% |
57.68% |
33.10% |
11.16% |
4.34% |
1.72% |
SMU |
68.12% |
32.00% |
14.78% |
5.40% |
2.08% |
0.90% |
Wisconsin |
72.84% |
23.00% |
9.74% |
4.94% |
1.84% |
0.80% |
St. Mary’s |
67.00% |
31.74% |
16.76% |
4.84% |
1.80% |
0.72% |
Iowa St. |
73.14% |
34.60% |
16.02% |
6.54% |
2.38% |
0.70% |
Cinn |
73.92% |
34.82% |
13.78% |
5.86% |
2.24% |
0.68% |
ND |
80.16% |
27.08% |
8.44% |
4.22% |
1.74% |
0.56% |
Creighton |
69.36% |
27.84% |
11.30% |
4.88% |
1.58% |
0.44% |
Michigan |
50.84% |
17.98% |
7.96% |
3.06% |
1.10% |
0.32% |
Okla. St. |
49.16% |
16.34% |
6.76% |
2.68% |
0.94% |
0.32% |
Xavier |
54.46% |
20.30% |
7.28% |
1.58% |
0.40% |
0.14% |
Miami |
55.76% |
16.32% |
6.34% |
2.12% |
0.48% |
0.14% |
Minn |
62.62% |
21.90% |
5.02% |
1.24% |
0.42% |
0.12% |
South Car |
49.60% |
12.64% |
4.48% |
0.92% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
Arkansas |
54.90% |
11.12% |
4.62% |
1.36% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
Mich St. |
44.24% |
10.04% |
3.30% |
0.72% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
MTSU |
37.38% |
9.08% |
1.60% |
0.26% |
0.10% |
0.04% |
Marquette |
50.40% |
12.90% |
4.38% |
1.00% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
Northwestern |
51.20% |
7.06% |
1.80% |
0.64% |
0.20% |
0.02% |
Vandy |
48.80% |
6.70% |
1.40% |
0.34% |
0.04% |
0.02% |
Maryland |
45.54% |
14.80% |
4.74% |
0.70% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
VCU |
33.00% |
10.36% |
3.92% |
0.70% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
Nevada |
26.86% |
7.56% |
1.60% |
0.38% |
0.02% |
0.02% |
Seton Hall |
45.10% |
7.64% |
2.80% |
0.72% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
DAYTON |
24.16% |
4.70% |
1.52% |
0.36% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
K. State |
16.00% |
5.12% |
1.48% |
0.38% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
Wake Forest |
15.88% |
4.74% |
1.32% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.02% |
Va Tech |
27.16% |
3.94% |
0.94% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
0.00% |
Wilmington |
12.88% |
2.32% |
0.28% |
0.08% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
ETSU |
10.24% |
1.52% |
0.10% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
New Mex. St. |
8.12% |
1.22% |
0.16% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Troy |
2.14% |
0.12% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
S. Dak. St. |
1.16% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Princeton |
19.84% |
2.68% |
0.30% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Bucknell |
5.26% |
0.98% |
0.08% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
FGCU |
7.32% |
1.42% |
0.22% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
N. Dakota |
4.22% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Vermont |
12.58% |
3.16% |
0.50% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
URI |
30.64% |
7.56% |
1.88% |
0.40% |
0.06% |
0.00% |
Iona |
4.10% |
0.48% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Jacksonville |
1.34% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Texas Southern |
0.62% |
0.06% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Winthrop |
6.56% |
1.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Kent St. |
4.80% |
0.40% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
N. Kent. |
1.84% |
0.12% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Mt. St. Mary’s |
0.22% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
NO |
0.24% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
NC Central |
7.54% |
2.18% |
0.34% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
UC Davis |
0.22% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Providence |
10.82% |
2.68% |
0.54% |
0.08% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
USC |
15.26% |
4.12% |
0.78% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |