This new analysis is all wrong. I simulated basketball players whose number of shots in game is normally distributed with mean 10 and sigma 2. Each player is a 50% shooter and successive shots are independent I played out 1000 players and aggregated over all players the fraction of the time a made shot was followed by a made shot. I get 50% as expected. But if I compute for each player the fraction of the time a made shot is followed by a made shot and average these numbers over all players I get 44% which is what the new stuff says. But really the first computation is the one that should be used in any study to see if a hot hand exists.
October 27, 2015
NFL Ratings October 27
| Rank | Teams | Off | Def | Rating |
| 1 | New England Patriots | 10.79 | -1.04 | 11.83 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 7.19 | -2.02 | 9.21 |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5.06 | -2.79 | 7.85 |
| 4 | New York Jets | 1.67 | -5.74 | 7.41 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 2.41 | -3.49 | 5.90 |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers | 1.78 | -3.19 | 4.97 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.71 | -5.54 | 4.83 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.70 | -3.80 | 4.50 |
| 9 | Atlanta Falcons | 3.44 | -0.60 | 4.04 |
| 10 | Denver Broncos | -0.85 | -4.85 | 4.00 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | -0.64 | -4.02 | 3.38 |
| 12 | St. Louis Rams | -2.72 | -3.67 | 0.95 |
| 13 | Buffalo Bills | 1.04 | 0.74 | 0.30 |
| 14 | New York Giants | 0.32 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| 15 | Minnesota Vikings | -3.92 | -3.94 | 0.02 |
| 16 | Miami Dolphins | 0.37 | 0.88 | -0.51 |
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 1.49 | 2.03 | -0.54 |
| 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.05 | 1.27 | -1.22 |
| 19 | New Orleans Saints | 0.03 | 1.64 | -1.61 |
| 20 | Oakland Raiders | -0.21 | 1.44 | -1.66 |
| 21 | Washington Redskins | -1.24 | 0.50 | -1.73 |
| 22 | Dallas Cowboys | -2.04 | 0.40 | -2.44 |
| 23 | San Diego Chargers | 0.88 | 4.50 | -3.62 |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | -1.01 | 2.72 | -3.73 |
| 25 | Indianapolis Colts | -2.70 | 1.17 | -3.87 |
| 26 | Tennessee Titans | -4.88 | 0.36 | -5.23 |
| 27 | Houston Texans | -2.21 | 4.40 | -6.61 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | -5.39 | 1.53 | -6.92 |
| 29 | Chicago Bears | -2.47 | 4.51 | -6.98 |
| 30 | Detroit Lions | -1.88 | 5.17 | -7.05 |
| 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -3.29 | 4.59 | -7.88 |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.08 | 6.83 | -7.90 |
October 20, 2015
NFL Ratings OCtober 20
| Rank | Teams | Off | Def | Rating |
| 1 | New England Patriots | 13.18 | -0.92 | 14.09 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 9.29 | -1.99 | 11.28 |
| 3 | New York Jets | 2.62 | -6.47 | 9.09 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.46 | -7.99 | 8.46 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5.39 | -2.81 | 8.20 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.71 | -5.53 | 7.24 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 1.93 | -4.13 | 6.06 |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | 7.32 | 1.54 | 5.79 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | -1.34 | -5.07 | 3.73 |
| 10 | Carolina Panthers | 0.73 | -1.52 | 2.26 |
| 11 | New York Giants | 0.87 | -0.89 | 1.76 |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | 0.33 | -1.41 | 1.74 |
| 13 | Seattle Seahawks | -0.69 | -2.29 | 1.60 |
| 14 | St. Louis Rams | -2.36 | -2.63 | 0.27 |
| 15 | Washington Redskins | -1.33 | -1.46 | 0.13 |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens | 2.57 | 3.21 | -0.64 |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | -5.51 | -4.70 | -0.81 |
| 18 | Dallas Cowboys | -2.33 | -1.09 | -1.25 |
| 19 | San Diego Chargers | 1.27 | 3.24 | -1.97 |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | -2.18 | 0.04 | -2.22 |
| 21 | New Orleans Saints | -0.84 | 1.76 | -2.61 |
| 22 | Cleveland Browns | 0.25 | 2.91 | -2.67 |
| 23 | Indianapolis Colts | -2.66 | 0.71 | -3.36 |
| 24 | Oakland Raiders | -2.59 | 1.00 | -3.59 |
| 25 | Kansas City Chiefs | -0.17 | 3.66 | -3.83 |
| 26 | San Francisco 49ers | -3.56 | 1.67 | -5.22 |
| 27 | Tennessee Titans | -3.03 | 4.01 | -7.04 |
| 28 | Detroit Lions | -2.15 | 5.02 | -7.17 |
| 29 | Houston Texans | -4.61 | 3.00 | -7.61 |
| 30 | Chicago Bears | -3.21 | 5.20 | -8.41 |
| 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -5.60 | 5.49 | -11.09 |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.74 | 8.46 | -12.20 |
October 13, 2015
NFL Ratings October 13
Pats have best offense, Broncos best defense.
| Teams | Off | Def | Rating |
| New England Patriots | 12.92 | -2.00 | 14.92 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 11.36 | -0.96 | 12.32 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.48 | 0.76 | 7.72 |
| New York Jets | -0.28 | -6.92 | 6.64 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2.62 | -3.93 | 6.55 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3.09 | -3.08 | 6.17 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.26 | -5.52 | 5.79 |
| New York Giants | 3.50 | -0.72 | 4.22 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.80 | -3.42 | 4.22 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.73 | -2.44 | 4.17 |
| Denver Broncos | -2.10 | -5.94 | 3.83 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.35 | -2.19 | 2.54 |
| Carolina Panthers | -0.57 | -1.06 | 0.49 |
| St. Louis Rams | -2.48 | -2.65 | 0.18 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 3.34 | 3.43 | -0.09 |
| Washington Redskins | -3.15 | -3.00 | -0.14 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.35 | 0.52 | -0.17 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -2.94 | -2.00 | -0.94 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -2.54 | -1.26 | -1.28 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.18 | 2.08 | -1.90 |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.88 | 4.01 | -3.13 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -2.08 | 1.06 | -3.14 |
| Oakland Raiders | -1.51 | 1.85 | -3.36 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 1.85 | 5.76 | -3.91 |
| New Orleans Saints | -2.32 | 3.20 | -5.52 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -4.44 | 1.39 | -5.83 |
| Detroit Lions | -4.11 | 2.31 | -6.41 |
| Miami Dolphins | -3.77 | 3.39 | -7.16 |
| Chicago Bears | -5.41 | 2.27 | -7.68 |
| Houston Texans | -5.94 | 2.76 | -8.70 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -5.24 | 4.16 | -9.39 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.85 | 8.15 | -11.00 |
October 6, 2015
NFL Ratings October 6
Here are ratings thru week 4
|
Teams
|
Off
|
Def
|
Rating
|
|
New England Patriots
|
12.62
|
1.57
|
11.04
|
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
10.77
|
0.22
|
10.55
|
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
8.90
|
-0.29
|
9.19
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
2.40
|
-4.99
|
7.39
|
|
New York Giants
|
2.22
|
-4.70
|
6.92
|
|
New York Jets
|
0.66
|
-5.05
|
5.70
|
|
Pittsburgh Steelers
|
0.13
|
-4.77
|
4.90
|
|
Green Bay Packers
|
2.01
|
-2.57
|
4.58
|
|
Denver Broncos
|
-0.33
|
-4.66
|
4.33
|
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
-1.05
|
-4.23
|
3.18
|
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
2.07
|
-0.33
|
2.40
|
|
Buffalo Bills
|
1.69
|
-0.67
|
2.36
|
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
-1.35
|
-2.63
|
1.28
|
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
2.28
|
1.08
|
1.19
|
|
Carolina Panthers
|
0.32
|
-0.57
|
0.89
|
|
St. Louis Rams
|
-1.88
|
-1.91
|
0.02
|
|
Washington Redskins
|
-1.92
|
-1.28
|
-0.64
|
|
Tennessee Titans
|
3.74
|
4.45
|
-0.71
|
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
-3.00
|
-2.20
|
-0.80
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
4.29
|
5.89
|
-1.60
|
|
San Diego Chargers
|
1.89
|
4.77
|
-2.88
|
|
Oakland Raiders
|
0.53
|
3.53
|
-3.00
|
|
New Orleans Saints
|
-2.15
|
0.98
|
-3.13
|
|
Cleveland Browns
|
-3.00
|
0.39
|
-3.39
|
|
Detroit Lions
|
-3.75
|
0.40
|
-4.14
|
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
-4.26
|
0.16
|
-4.41
|
|
Houston Texans
|
-5.21
|
0.83
|
-6.04
|
|
Miami Dolphins
|
-4.48
|
2.74
|
-7.22
|
|
San Francisco 49ers
|
-6.83
|
1.76
|
-8.59
|
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
-6.82
|
1.87
|
-8.69
|
|
Chicago Bears
|
-5.29
|
4.80
|
-10.10
|
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
-5.20
|
5.39
|
-10.59
|