If the Spurs stick to the lineups in orange they are invicible. If they don’t , you heard it heere first. Rating is how many ppg better than average a lineup plays.

The
Spurs have been even more amazing than most people think. Looking at the whole
season Spurs have played 7.3 ppg better than average (all numbers adjust for
quality of opponents). The Thunder have played 7.1 ppg better than average so
the series looks even? No way! If you
look at the time the Spurs play only their top 10 players in 662 minutes the
Spurs play 26 ppg better than average. The Thunder in the minutes involving
their top 10 guys play only 10ppg better than average. Since teams shorten
their rotation in playoffs, the Spurs have a massive upside. Here are some
amazing combinations the Spurs can play.

Green
Parker, Manu, Duncan with a 5th of Bonner, Leonard or Diaw: 97 minutes 57 ppg
better than average

Duncan, Parker Diaw, No Manu
166 min 36 ppg better than average

Duncan Parker Manu no Diaw
119 min +33 ppg  better than average

During the playoffs Spurs (after adjusting for strength of opponents) have played 21.7 ppg better than average and Thunder haveplayed 12.5 ppg better than average. Spurs also have home court so I think Spurs are a pretty sure lock to in in 5 or 6.

In the past I have hated the Lakers. For some strange reason I am rooting hard for them (and losing sleep!) to beat OKC. Here are some surprising facts about the series so far. All numbers are per 48 minutes and adjusted for strength of OKC players on floor.

 Bryant with Gasol and Bynum has been bad 106 min -2 rating

Hill and Bynum no Gasol is great 34 min +42 rating

Do not rest Metta and Bynum at same time 22 min -34 rating

Rest Kobe with Blake Sessions Metta Gasol and Metta: 9 min +54 rating; rest of time Bryant out Lakers play at -27 rating.

Here is how Lakers most frequently used line ups have done. First number is rating per 48 min adjusted for strengthof opposition, 2nd is minutes and last number is raw +/- Lineup 3 has been Laker’s best.

    1  Bryant      Bynum       Gasol       World Peace Sessions       3.28    74.67  OKC  LAL*     -4.50    -7      147596_LAL_2012
    2  Blake       Bryant      Bynum       Gasol       World Peace   -9.45    30.14  OKC  LAL*    -22.32   -14       16526_LAL_2012
    3  Blake       Bryant      Bynum       World Peace Hill          47.56    17.81  OKC  LAL*     35.04    13       81934_LAL_2012
    4  Barnes      Blake       Bryant      Bynum       Hill          37.71    14.94  OKC  LAL*     22.48     7       65551_LAL_2012
    5  Barnes      Blake       Gasol       Hill        Sessions     -38.12     9.07  OKC  LAL*    -52.96   -10      196739_LAL_2012
    6  Blake       Bynum       Gasol       World Peace Sessions      54.04     8.85  OKC  LAL*     43.39     8      147594_LAL_2012
    7  Barnes      Blake       Gasol       World Peace Hill           6.47     5.23  OKC  LAL*     -9.17    -1       82051_LAL_2012
    8  Bryant      Bynum       World Peace Hill        Sessions       1.55     4.64  OKC  LAL*    -10.33    -1      213004_LAL_2012
    9  Barnes      Ebanks      Goudelock   McRoberts   Murphy       -68.20     4.00  OKC  LAL*    -60.00    -5        5409_LAL_2012
   10  Blake       Bryant      Gasol       World Peace Hill         -44.39     3.24  OKC  LAL*    -59.38    -4       82054_LAL_

Texas football coach Darrell Royal popularized the phrase “Dance with one who brung you.” I guess this means that a coach should stick with the strategy that got you to the NBA playoffs. Unfortunately sometimes the data overwhelmingly indicates that a change in strategy is necessary.

In the 2011 NBA playoffs Dallas cruised to the Western Conference title with Peja Stojovich replacing Dirk and Barea coming off the bench. After three games against the Heat it was clear Peja was being clobbered by the Heat and Barea was performing poorly off the bench. Rick Carlisle had Caridnal replace Dirk and started  Barea. The rest is history as the Mavs stormed back to win the title over the highly favored Heat.

The Grizzlies and Bulls stuck with certain regular season strategies and were rewarded with first round exits.

Memphis had great success during the regular season with Mayo coming in for Tony Allen. Against LAC, however, Mayo was destroyed by Nick Young. In 76 minutes with Young in and Mayo in and Allen out Memphis lost by 47 points. When Mayo was in and Allen and Young were out Memphis was +30 points in 85 minutes.  When Allen was in and Mayo out and Young was in Memphis was up. This would seem to indicate that starting Mayo and having Allen come off the bench would have helped matters. The Grizz destroyed the Clips starting lineup (+47 points in 119 minutes( and was +17 with Mayo in against Clips starting lineup) so this would have appeared to make sense

The Bulls had to deal with the tragic loss of Rose. During the regular season Lucas was a great sub for Rose. With Rose out and Lucas in and Watson out Bulls played 9 ppg better than average. When Watson was in and Rose and Lucas were out Bulls played 2 ppg worse than average. So in the playoffs I would have started Lucas and brought Watson off the bench. Instead Watson got most of the minutes. Not surprisingly when Watson was in  the Bulls played only 1 ppg bettert han average but when Lucas was in and Watson was out  the Bulls were much better 6 ppg better than average.

Usually in the playoffs patterns emerge after 2 or 3 games that repeat themselves later in the series.  The Mavs understood this and were rewarded with a title.

A tip: key to Philly Boston is the way Lavoy Allen has handled KG. Keep an eye on this!

Here are some thoughts on OKC’s win.

1.James Harden is the man! When he was in for129 minutes OKC was +48 points; when he was out -22   points.

2. More amazingly when Harden was in and KD and westbrook were out OKC was +19 points in 20 minutes.

3. Mahinmi should have played more for the Mavs. The Mavs were +11 points with him in and were even +1 with Mahinmi and Harden in the game.

4. West killed the Mavs: Mavs -41 points in 88 minutes with West in. Maybe Roddy B should have played more (12min +12 points)

5. Against Harden we should have seen more of Dirk, Mahinmi, Terry, Carter with Kidd or West 16 minutes +9 points.

6.  West, Dirk, Carter, Wright with Terry or Kidd wrecked the Mavs with Harden in 14 min -21 points.

7. Haywood, Dirk, Kidd Marion and Terry 8 min +7 pts) was also good with Harden in

8. In 54 minutes with KD and Westbrook in and Harden out Mavs were +3 points, so clearly Harden is the straw that stirs the drink.

9. In the 37 minutes Harden was out and West was in the Mavs were -5 points but when Harden was out and West out in 26 minutes theMavs were +27 points!

The Mavs could easily be 2-2 right now, but OKC made the plays and deserve multiple props!