Yesterday we predicted the Heat to be 66-16 next season. Applying our Adjusted +/- ratings for the Laker’s players from last season and using last season’s minutes played (adjusted in Blake’s case) we get a projected record for the Lakers of 65-17! As you can see below, Blake and Barnes are two great pickups. They are easily superior to Brown and Farmar. The predicted wins is based on the well-known Puthagorean formula that converts points better than average (in this case 10) to games one. Looks like these teams will be well-matched, if they make it to the finals. As the Celtics showed this year, nobody should take a finals trip as a given!

The Heat have pretty much filled out their roster. I assumed that players play the same number of minutes as they did last year and play at the same Adjusted +/- level of performance as last year, I predict 66-16 for the Heat.

I am so sorry Holland lost! Oh well there is always 2014 for USA and Holland. Here are final ratings based on 3 years of scores. I switched to multiplicative ratings, because they fit the data a little better. So Spain is number 1 and they are 60% better than average on offense and give up an amazing 26% as many goals as an average World Cup team. Spain against an average World Cup Team would be favored by 1.73 goals.

I want Netherlands to win so badly but my model predicts Spain 2 Netherlands 1 in overtime. Spain has 57% chance to win.

Well LeBron, Bosh and wade are on the Heat. Are the Heat a lock to win the NBA title. Let’s try and figure out how good this team will be next year. Based on our Adjusted +/- Ratings we project for 2010-2011 (all player ratings are per 48 minutes.)

• Wade and LeBron each play 11 points better than average. Assume 36 minutes each (most guys get hurt a few games)
• Bosh will play 5 points better than average . 36 minutes
• Chalmer 4 points worse than average. 24 minutes
• Beasley 4 points worse than average. 30 minutes
• The key is in remaining 78 minutes how well will rest of roster play. Let’s try out 2 points thru 6 points worse than average.

Here are projected wins:

To me the most likely case is rest of roster plays like Chalmers and  Beasley (-4). Then we project 63-19 record for Heat which is probably a team good enough to win the East and play the Lakers in a great 7 game series.

Chances of winning cup

• Germany 35.6%
• Spain 27%
• Netherlands 24.8%
• Uruguay 12.6%

Semifinal predictions

NETHERLANDS 2 URUGUAY 1 NETHERLANDS 61% CHANCE TO ADVANCE

GERMANY 1 SPAIN 1 GERMANY WINS ON PENALTY KICKS GERMANY 56% CHANCE OF ADVANCING

What a day for soccer! Dram to equal anything I have seen. Go Netherlands. Here are tomorrow’s picks.

SPAIN 1 PARAGUAY 0 SPAIN 80% CHANCE TO ADVANCE

GERMANY 1 ARGENTINA 1 ARGENTINA ADVANCES ON PENALTY KICKS 56% CHANCE ARGENTINA ADVANCES