The Magic have themslves to blame for losing this series. For the 6 games when Barnes was in without Redick against Rondo, Ray Allen and Pierce   (RAP) the Magic were down 57 points in 90 minutes. When Redick was in and Barnes out against RAP the Magic were +19  points in 61 minutes, Game 6 was no different: Barnes in against RAR -9 points in 16 minutes, Redick in +3 points in 15 minutes. This was obvious after 2 games:

• Game 1 Redick in +3, Barnes in -9 against RAP
• Game 2 Redick in +10, Barnes in -13 against RAP.

I missed this game flying to Amsterdam to see my daughter who is an exchange student here. I have recovered from my plane trip and drinking lots of beer so here are some interesting points.

1. In Game 4 Suns were +18 with Dragic in the game. When Phil Jackson masterfully put Vujajic, Bryant, Farmar, Odom and Gasol or Bynum on the court the Lakers were +6 against Dragic.
2. Frye is doing much better against Odom: Suns were +7 last night in 26 minutes with Frye on the court against Odom.
3. Lopez only played 10 minutes. He has been great the rest of the series, so it will be interesting to see what Gentry does with Lopez in Game 6.
4. The Suns were +1 in 29 minutes against Gasol Odom, +6 points in 11 minutes against Bynum and Gasol, but in 8 minutes Bynum and Odom killed the Suns:+9 points. The rest of the series Bynum and Odom has played poorly: -27 points in 24 minutes, so great job by Lakers of fixing this problem. For the first time Artest and Fisher  played with Bynum, Bryant and Odom, and Lakers were  +5 points in 2 minutes with this lineup.
5.  Bynum with an Adjustted +/- of -15 points has been the worst regular in this series.

The Magic are in position to become  the first NBA team to win a playoff series after being down 3-0. I think they will “Get Her Done” as Coach Chandler would say on TV’s best show: Friday Night Lights. The Magic coaching staff has finally figured out the key adjustments that need to be made.

1. All series we have pointed out that Redick has been much more effective than Barnes against the Ray Allen, Rondo, Pierce (ARP) trio. With Barnes in and Redick out the Magic are -46 points in 74 minutes  against ARP. Thankfully, in Game 5 Barnes was +4 against ARP.
2. Redick in and Barnes out against ARP is a winner (+26 points in 51 minutes). Play him more against this Celtic trio!!
3. A real key has been that the Magic have figured out a good way to rest Jameer Nelson. Pietrus, Redick, Lewis and Williams in is +12 points in 30 minutes but the other times Williams is in for Nelson the Magic are -22 points in 30 minutes. If the Magic always rest Nelson with this quartet this may make the difference in a close game.
4. Brandon Bass has emerged as a key performer. When Bass is in against KG , he does poorly (13 min -4 points). But with KG out and Bass in the Magic are +9 points in 16 minutes.

Adjusted +/- Ratings for the Series

We have Adjusted +/- ratings for each player in the series. The key numbers are that Barnes has a -17 points Adjusted +/- and Redick a +13 Adjusted +/-. This means that our best estimate is that Redick has played 13 points better than an average NBA player per 48 minutes in this series (after adjusting for who he playedwith and against. For the Celtics Ray Allen has an Adjusted +/- of +17.

    We also have an IMPACT rating (on a scale of -100 to +100) that meausres how a player changes the chance of his team winning the game.  IMPACT rating minimizes the importance of garbage time. Redick has a +45% IMPACT, Barnes a -72% IMPACT and Ray Allen +46% IMPACT.  Again these numbers confirm that Barnes has really killed the Magic and Redick has keyed their success. Perhaps this is because Redick does a good defensive job on Ray Allen.

This is getting interesting! You probably do not need any math to  tell you the Suns bench lineup of Amundsen, Frye, Dudley, Dragic and Barbosa(+15 points) won this game for the Suns. For the series this lineup is +30 points in 20 minutes when Bynum and Odom are on the court, and last night the bench lineups was +18 points in 11 minutes against Bynum and Odom.  Against Gasol and Odom, the bench lineup is -11 points in 10 minutes. For once Phil Jackson made a bad move, because he did not realize that he needed Gasol and Odom out there against the bench lineup. Clearly Bynum cannot move enough to cut off the Suns 3 pointers.

Gentry deserves tons of credit for going with 5 bench players and making it work. To my knowledge no other team this year has done this successfully. Of course, going with 5 bench players means you can have lots of minutes with your sterters on the court.

• By the way Frye last night still had trouble against Gasol Odom duo (Suns were-7 points here.). 
•  The Suns have many more degrees of freedom than the Lakers have  in their lineup choices and it looks like this series comes down to Game 5!  I think the Suns have a real shot here.
• I still think Lopez deserves more time but if Bynum and Odom are out there, the Suns bench should “make hay while the Suns shine.”

The Magic still have a pulse.  Honestly with better lineup decisions, this series would surely be 2-2. We have pointed out throughout the series that the Magic have been much better when Redick replaces Barnes against Pierce, Rondo and Ray Allen.(PRA) For the series as a whole, for example Carter, Lewis and Redick in is +21 points in 34 minutes against PRA and Carter Lewis and Barnes is -45 points in 55 minutes against PRA. It is clear that Redick’s deadeye shooting negates the great Celtic defensive rotations.  Last night was no exception. With Redick in and Barnes out Magic were +10 against PRA while with Barnes in and Redick out Celtics were -10 points. This has been obvious from the end of Game 1 but the Magic have just not acted on it. The media blames Carter and Lewis for the Magic problems, but when they are in with Redick they do fine.

    The other Magic problem is that with Jason Williams in the Magic are -18 points in 41 minutes. So the Magic need to look at how to make Williams more effective. In 15 minutes that Williams plays with Redick and Lewis in Magic are +1 points, so try and have these guys in when Nelson is rested.

   With sensible  lineup decisions (start Redick and have Barnes come off the bench!) the Magic can certainly win game 5, maybe game 6 and who knows?

Congrats to the Suns for a great back against the wall performance. Looking at the lineup data from the first 3 games, I am convinced the Suns can hold home court, and perhaps take the series. Here are some key points:

• With Gasol and Odom on the court the Suns are down 30 points in 86 minutes. The rest of the time the Suns are +6 points.
• Most of the damage with Gasol and Odom on the court is with either Frye in (30 minutes, -35 points) or Dragic in without Lopez (22 minutes, -28 points.) The Suns need to avoid these situations.
• The Suns have several good combos to use against Gasol and Odom: JR, Nash, Amare and Hill with Dudley or Lopez is +16 points in 33 minutes.
• Also Dragic, Lopez, Barbosa with two of Amundsen, JR, Amare and Dudley is +6 points in 4 minutes. Not much data here, but still useful info.
• The lineup of Brown, Farmar, Artest, Gasol and Odom is +11 points against Suns. But with Lopez in, the Suns beat this lineup by 4 points in 3 minutes. This means with Lopez out this Kobeless lineup beats Suns by 15 points in 7 minutes!

Adjusted +/- Ratings thru Three Games

While still noisy, our Adjusted +/- and Impact Ratings so far in the series tell us a lot.

• Frye (-21 points -69% Impact), Barbosa (-14 points(-21% Impact) and Amundsen ( -28 points, -80% Impact) have killed Suns. Dragic (-16 points, -47% impact) has also hurt, but I think playing Lpez with him will solve this problem,
• Lopez (+12 points, +31% Impact) is the Suns X Factor!! Keep him out there 30-36 minutes if possible.

Given this info I would try and allocate minutes as follows:

Nash, JR , Amare, Hill, and Lopez 36 minutes

Dragic 12 minutes

Dudley 30 minutes (In the 35 minutes Dudley is in without Frye the Suns are +5 points, so he should get more of Frye’s minutes.)

Amundsen, Frye and Barbosa 18 minutes (Give the time in the 2nd half to whoever does the job in first half!)

For the Lakers Bynum (-12 points rating, -40% Impact) has killed them while Bryant (+13 points), Brown (+14 points) and Farmar (+15 points) have been big contributors.

I think with a shortening of the rotation and adroit subsitutions the Suns have a shot!

In the New York Times Off the Dribble Blog on Thursday May 20

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/20/how-the-magic-can-come-back/

we commented that during the first two games of the Celtics-Magic series the Magic got killed when Barnes was on the court against Pierce, Ray Allen, and Rondo (-25 points in 31 minutes). We also pointed out that Lewis, Carter, Howard, Nelson, and Redick was pretty good against the Celtic trio +10 points in 20 minutes).

So what happened in the Game 3 disaster? As philosopher George Santyana said: “Those who do not learn from the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them.”  In Game 3 Barnes on the court against Ray Allen, Rondo and Pierce was -16 points in 16 minutes. Redick, Carter, Lewis, Nelson and Howard made a cameo appearance for .07 minutes.  As Neil Young said, “Tell me Why.”

Looks like the Suns backs are against the wall. They play much better at home , but the Odom Gasol duo has killed Suns, especially with Frye in. Let’s look at the situation.

Here are key facts.

1.  1. Odom Gasol in 53 min Suns down 37 pts. Rest of time Suns +4.

2.  Dragic JR Barbosa Lopez Amundsen 1 min +4 pts.

3.   Dudley Nash Hill JR and Amare +10 pts in 12 minutes.

4.  So ignoring 2 and 3 Odom and Gasol in 40 min -51 pts.

5.  Frye in against Odom and Gasol -26 pts 18 minutes.

6.  Dragic without Dudley -11 pts 15 minutes. Dragic with Dudley -1 pt in 21 minutes.

So maybe start Frye  so he does not face  Odom Gasol and keep lineups 2 and 3 out there as much as possible.

Keep Dudley on court as much as possible. Hope they do this or there is almost no hope, in my opinion.

 

Here is key to last night’s Laker blowout. In  18 minutes Bryant Gasol, and Bryant in was +21 for LAL. This included +13 points against Dudley Frye Amare Nash and JR.  In the past this was  Suns’ best lineup, so this is a bad sign, indeed. Lopez Hill Amare JR and Nash was even in 3 minutes against this trio. So key is to handle Gasol, Bryant and Odom. Rest of game, the  Suns should be fine with almost any lineup. Suns should spend Game 2 searching for the answer here. Maybe Lopez is the answer.

Props to the Celtics for a truly great performance in their upset of the Cavs. The Celtics played (after adjusting for strength of opponent) 18 points (per 48 minutes) better than average while the Cavs played only 2 points better than average.

Here is a summary of how key lineups played in the series. For example, Cavs lineup #2 played great (28 points better than average per 48 minutes after adjusting for strength of opponents faced, +11 points total).  This lineup was great during the regular season. So why did the starting lineup play much more than Lineup 2 (98 minutes)  when it was clobbered by 17 points? The only real mistake the Celtics made was continually playing lineup #2 when it kept getting destroyed.

Boston

    1  R. Allen    Garnett     Perkins     Pierce      Rondo         18.46   116.87  CLE  BOS*      4.93    12        1810_BOS_2010

    2  T. Allen    R. Allen    Davis       Rondo       Wallace      -38.98    20.72  CLE  BOS*    -50.94   -22        9227_BOS_2010

    3  R. Allen    Garnett     Pierce      Rondo       Wallace       25.84    17.04  CLE  BOS*      8.42     3        9746_BOS_2010

    4  T. Allen    Davis       Pierce      Rondo       Wallace       58.97    13.15  CLE  BOS*     43.79    12        9737_BOS_2010

    5  R. Allen    Davis       Garnett     Pierce      Rondo         -0.04    12.48  CLE  BOS*    -15.39    -4        1562_BOS_2010

    6  T. Allen    R. Allen    Garnett     Perkins     Rondo         -2.30    11.20  CLE  BOS*    -17.16    -4        1299_BOS_2010

    7  T. Allen    Davis       Rondo       Wallace     Finley        73.65     8.26  CLE  BOS*     69.68    12      140297_BOS_2010

Cavs

    1  James       O’Neal      Parker      M. Williams Jamison        2.37    97.79  BOS  CLE*     -8.34   -17       82720_CLE_2010

    2  James       Parker      Varejao     M. Williams Jamison       28.26    28.06  BOS  CLE*     18.83    11       84512_CLE_2010

    3  James       Parker      Varejao     West        Jamison       11.26    13.94  BOS  CLE*      6.89     2       72224_CLE_2010

    4  Hickson     James       West        M. Williams Jamison       26.74    13.74  BOS  CLE*     20.97     6       86052_CLE_2010

    5  James       O’Neal      West        M. Williams Jamison        1.61    10.43  BOS  CLE*     -9.19    -2       86304_CLE_2010

    6  Hickson     James       Varejao     West        M. Williams    4.17     8.77  BOS  CLE*      0.00     0       22564_CLE_2010

    7  Ilgauskas   James       Varejao     West        M. Williams  -26.04     8.63  BOS  CLE*    -33.42    -6       22568_CLE_2010

    8  James       Varejao     West        M. Williams Jamison       20.23     7.51  BOS  CLE*     12.79     2       88096_CLE_2010

    9  James       O’Neal      Parker      West        Jamison       14.58     6.68  BOS  CLE*     -0.05     0       70432_CLE_2010

   10  Hickson     James       Parker      Varejao     West         -59.52     6.36  BOS  CLE*    -60.34    -8        6692_CLE_2010

 

 

Key Observations on the Series

·        Rondo’s domination of Parker was a key to the Celtic’s series win. In 169 minutes when James, Rondo and Parker were in the Celtics were +18 points, but when Rondo and James were in and Parker was out the Celtics were down 6 points in 66 minutes.

·        Although Pierce did not shoot well, his defense on the King was vital. In 192 minutes with James and Pierce on the court the Celtics were +32 points but when James was in with Pierce out for 62 minutes the Celtics got beat by 16 points!

·        The unsung hero was Tony Allen. In 52 minutes with Tony in and Ray Allen out the Celtics were an amazing +42 points. Big Z, AV, and James countered Tony well (+6 points in 9 minutes) but the rest of the time Tony destroyed the Cavs.

·        All season the Cavs were better with small ball. This series was no exception. James and AV in without Shaq:  109 minutes +7 points, played 9 points per game better than average. Shaq and James in AV out: 117 minutes -20 points, played 3 points better than average. So why not try more small ball?

·        The Cavs continually used the starting lineup, even though it continued to perform poorly.  Here are some other combos that worked well (besides lineup #2).

1.     West, Williams and James (with Big Z out): 48 minutes, +13 points, played 19 points better than average.

 2. Moon. AV, James, with West or Williams and a 5^th of Z or Jamison: 12 minutes +15 points!

 Impact Ratings

    Our impact ratings summarize how a team’s chance of winning  (after adjusting for the other 9 players on the court)  changes when a player is in. Thus garbage time (like the end of games 3 and 5) has little impact on Impact rating. For the last 5 games of the series Shaq had a horrible impact (-72%). Jamison -52% also had a very poor impact. Varaejo, on the other hand had a much better (although still bad) Impact rating of -28%. This means the games really turned against the Cavs much more with Shaq in than AV in: another argument for more small ball!. For the Celtics there were many stars but top Impact ratings go to Pierce +65%, Rasheed +56%, Tony Allen +43%, and Rondo +38%.

We hope our observations shed some light on this amazing piece of NBA history.