April 15, 2014

ESPN’s RAPM: I don’t get it

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:16 pm

My colleague Jeff Sagarin and I have been doing Adjusted + -  since 2000. Therefore I was interested to see the “Real Plus-Minus appear last week. I don’t know  how the numbers are crunched but many don’t make any sense. Let’s take Hollins and Redick of the Clippers. On April 15 RPM has Hollins above average and  Redick below average. we have Redick way above average and Hollins way above average. Take a look below at how the Clippers have played (points per 48 better or worse than average ,adjusted for strength of opponent with) Redick and Hollins on and off the court with combination of other Clippers. Minutes are also listed. You can see Redick usually makes things better and Hollins usually makes things worse. Would love to see Dean Oliver post an explanation for why  the “real” numbers have Hollins better. I am waiting.

 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Barnes Griffin Jordan Paul Redick Crawford Barnes Bullock Dudley Granger Hollins
Hollins and  other in -14 147m -1 115m -39 4m 16 71m 7 33m 1 312m -14 147m 1 169m -6 161m -5 10m -4 468m
Hollins out and other in 12 1525m 12 2719m 10 2829m 15 2072m 12 937m 9 1710m 12 1525m -6 211m 9 1529m -8 184m dnp
Hollins in and other out 0 320m -5 352m -4 463m -8 397m -5 434m -15 155m 0 320m -7 299m -3 306m -4 457m dnp
Hollins out and other out 7 1862m -2 669m 4 559m 1 1316m 8 2451m 10 1678m 7 1862m 10 3177m 9 1858m 10 3204m 9 3388m

 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Barnes Griffin Jordan Paul Redick Crawford Barnes Bullock Dudley Granger Hollins Collison
Redick and  other in 5 347m 13 855m 10 857m 16 516m 12 970m 18 273m 5 347m 19 26m 13 497m dnp 7 33m 8 365m
Redick out and other in 11 1325m 11 1979m 10 1976m 14 1627m dnp 6 1749m 11 1325m -5 354m 6 1193m -8 194m -5 434m 4 1643m
Redick in and other out 15 622m 2 115m 23 113m 7 454m dnp 9 697m 15 622m 12 944m 10 473m 12 970m 12 937m 14 605m
Redick out and other out 2 1560m -4 906m -2 909m -4 1259m 6 2885m 6 1137m 2 1560m 8 2532m 7 1692m 7 2691m 8 2451m 10 124

2m

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