Here are updated NFL ratings. Houston and NE lead with Raiders and Chiefs bringing up the rear.
| Rank | Team | off | def | total |
| 1 | Houston Texans | 7.20 | -8.84 | 16.04 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 7.01 | -5.19 | 12.21 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 3.82 | -8.02 | 11.84 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 4.40 | -6.67 | 11.07 |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 8.54 | -1.55 | 10.09 |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 4.50 | -4.24 | 8.74 |
| 7 | Atlanta Falcons | 6.50 | -1.54 | 8.04 |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | -2.25 | -8.56 | 6.31 |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | 3.66 | -2.02 | 5.67 |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | -1.01 | -5.47 | 4.46 |
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7.20 | 3.63 | 3.56 |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers | -1.57 | -4.68 | 3.10 |
| 13 | New York Giants | 5.95 | 3.77 | 2.18 |
| 14 | St. Louis Rams | -1.66 | -3.56 | 1.90 |
| 15 | Miami Dolphins | -0.14 | -1.93 | 1.79 |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | -5.34 | -6.40 | 1.06 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | 2.78 | 1.76 | 1.02 |
| 18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.35 | 1.76 | -1.42 |
| 19 | Washington Redskins | 5.81 | 7.91 | -2.10 |
| 20 | San Diego Chargers | -5.26 | -2.78 | -2.48 |
| 21 | Cleveland Browns | -5.35 | -2.08 | -3.26 |
| 22 | Dallas Cowboys | -4.72 | -1.01 | -3.71 |
| 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -8.65 | -3.09 | -5.56 |
| 24 | New York Jets | -4.59 | 1.92 | -6.51 |
| 25 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -10.65 | -4.02 | -6.63 |
| 26 | Indianapolis Colts | 0.08 | 7.76 | -7.68 |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | 3.19 | 11.19 | -8.00 |
| 28 | Carolina Panthers | -5.99 | 3.71 | -9.70 |
| 29 | New Orleans Saints | 0.36 | 10.55 | -10.19 |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | -0.05 | 10.95 | -11.00 |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | -6.17 | 8.96 | -15.13 |
| 32 | Oakland Raiders | -7.96 | 7.76 | -15.72 |
DO these ranking predict HOU as a 32 favorite over OAK? How do you interpret these numbers?
Comment by allen v — October 3, 2012 @ 3:35 am
It means that based on play so far Houston has played 32 pts better than Oakland. Probably need a Bayesian system that includes a prior view of how good each team was before season. I have not yet had time to work on that.
Comment by wwinston — October 3, 2012 @ 7:45 am
you should swap Green Bay with Seattle and mark with an asterisk since essentially one is +2.333 and the other -2.333 of reality
Comment by vanjulio — October 3, 2012 @ 2:14 pm
Winston:
I just purchased a new computer and would like to have the files that I downloaded before on my new computer. Problem is I don’t have the right address. your book says Waynewinston.com/edu but that doesn’t work
Thx-GeoC
Comment by GeoC — October 3, 2012 @ 5:55 pm