May 26, 2011

Why the Thunder Lost

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 12:46 pm

The Thunder should never have gone down in 5 games. Dallas played great but OKC made many blunders. It was clear to everyone that Collison needed to be on court more but Ibaka and Perkins logged more minutes than Collison. With Collison in OKC played 16 points better than average and with Collison out 4 points worse than average. Also with Perk and Ibaka in OKC in 84 minutes played 13 ppg worse than average and was -38 points.  Also OKC closed Game 5 with MAynor and Westbrook on court. All season this has been poor (13 ppg worse than average).

  On the other hand Dallas made great lineup decisions. OKC’s blunders allowed Dallas’ usually poor starting lineup to flourish. Mavs even found a great lineup (Peja, Chandler, Kidd, Terry and Marion, #4 below) to rest Dirk.

Here are some details on the most played lineups for each team in the series. Lineup 1 for example, played 54.62 minutes, played 17.34 ppg better than average and was +13 points.

1  Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Stevenson     17.34    54.62  OKC  DAL*     11.43    13       13600_DAL_2011
    2  Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry         54.24    32.39  OKC  DAL*     41.48    28       21792_DAL_2011
    3  Barea       Haywood     Nowitzki    Terry       Stojakovic    12.63    23.55  OKC  DAL*     10.19     5       86082_DAL_2011
    4  Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Terry       Stojakovic    55.93    16.53  OKC  DAL*     43.53    15       83232_DAL_2011
    5  Barea       Haywood     Marion      Nowitzki    Terry        -35.16    12.07  OKC  DAL*    -51.70   -13       21570_DAL_2011
    6  Chandler    Kidd        Nowitzki    Stevenson   Terry         19.12    11.90  OKC  DAL*      8.06     2       28960_DAL_2011
    7  Haywood     Kidd        Marion      Terry       Stojakovic    -6.19     9.96  OKC  DAL*    -14.44    -3       83264_DAL_2011
    8  Haywood     Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry         68.10     7.81  OKC  DAL*     61.53    10    

You can see the 4 lineups the Mavs played the most were very good. Mavs went with Barea too much; he was abused defensively.

Now look at most played OKC lineups. Four of the 5 lineups that played the most were bad!
    1  Durant      Ibaka       Sefolosha   Westbrook   Perkins      -15.89    57.50  DAL  OKC*    -22.54   -27       77896_OKC_2011
    2  Durant      Harden      Ibaka       Westbrook   Perkins       -7.26    25.65  DAL  OKC*    -20.58   -11       73832_OKC_2011
    3  Collison    Durant      Harden      Westbrook   Perkins       34.56    19.73  DAL  OKC*     29.22    12       73770_OKC_2011
    4  Collison    Durant      Harden      Maynor      Westbrook    -14.77    16.12  DAL  OKC*    -29.77   -10        8746_OKC_2011
    5  Collison    Durant      Ibaka       Sefolosha   Westbrook    -14.75    14.97  DAL  OKC*    -28.84    -9

The following lineups were great for Thunder during entire season. Note #3 above was good all year. Why did we not see more of the good lineups below when the other lineups faltered?

 

OKC      20.85 (   12.71    8.02   -4.69   30.19    1.91    6.32)   84.57 minutes   53 appearances     3 B     14.19       25 $
Collison      Durant        Harden        Westbrook     Perkins       24.41 years      73770_OKC_2011

OKC      18.29 (    5.10   11.72    6.62   23.17    1.03    6.22)   82.31 minutes   82 appearances     5 B     13.41       23 $
Durant        Harden        Ibaka         Sefolosha     Westbrook     22.74 years      12392_OKC_2011

OKC      26.83 (   19.20   11.52   -7.69   56.04    3.21    5.62)   62.46 minutes   59 appearances     6 B     26.13       34 $
Collison      Durant        Harden        Maynor        Mohammed      26.13 years      33322_OKC_2011

OKC      22.36 (    6.78   -0.96   -7.74    6.49    0.79    3.66)   62.34 minutes   42 appearances     7 B     21.56       28 $
Collison      Cook          Harden        Ibaka         Maynor        24.01 years        614_OKC_2011

OKC      35.90 (   13.67    4.01   -9.65   24.04    1.83    6.14)   61.45 minutes   38 appearances     8 B     28.12       36 $
Collison      Durant        Sefolosha     Westbrook     Perkins       25.47 years      77834_OKC_2011

    OKC      30.92 (   16.66   17.09    0.43   32.15    2.34    5.83)   58.68 minutes   44 appearances     1 C     22.09       27 $
Collison      Cook          Durant        Harden        Westbrook

1 Comment »

  1. [...] Why the Thunder Lost: The Thunder should never have gone down in 5 games, writes Wayne Winston of Mathletics. [...]

    Pingback by Why the Thunder Lost » Stathead » Blog Archive — May 26, 2011 @ 5:59 pm

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