The Spurs are probably going to lose the series to the Grizzlies. It did not have to be this way. Our Adjusted +/- ratings for the series have shown that Bonner (-9 points and -53 Impact) and Neal (-22 points and -52 Impact) have killed the Spurs. This has been clear after two games. Blair (+6 points, +5 Impact) has played ok. Yet Bonner averages 20 minutes, Neal 19 and Blair 12 minutes? Virtually every bad lineup for Spurs has Neal or Bonner in. See below. Maybe its not too late, but better playing time decisions sure would have helped. With Neal and Bonner out Spurs play 20 points better than average per 48 minutes. With either in they play 8 points worse than average.
1 Duncan Ginobili Jefferson McDyess Parker 29.75 33.53 MEM SAS* 22.91 16 1448_SAS_2011
2 Bonner Duncan Hill Jefferson Parker -4.39 14.51 MEM SAS* -13.25 -4 1228_SAS_2011
3 Duncan Hill Jefferson McDyess Parker -7.19 12.74 MEM SAS* -15.08 -4 1480_SAS_2011
4 Blair Bonner Ginobili Hill Neal -12.00 10.82 MEM SAS* -13.31 -3 614_SAS_2011
5 Bonner Duncan Hill Jefferson Neal -67.67 9.25 MEM SAS* -77.83 -15 716_SAS_2011
6 Blair Duncan Hill Jefferson Parker 77.36 8.56 MEM SAS* 72.93 13 1226_SAS_2011
7 Duncan Hill McDyess Neal Parker -44.12 8.14 MEM SAS* -53.16 -9 1864_SAS_2011
8 Duncan Ginobili Hill Jefferson McDyess 30.90 7.72 MEM SAS* 18.66 3 488_SAS_2011
9 Bonner Ginobili Hill Jefferson Splitter -49.34 6.82 MEM SAS* -63.37 -9 4324_SAS_2011
10 Blair Bonner Jefferson Neal Parker -21.32 6.79 MEM SAS* -28.29 -4 1670_SAS_2011
RATING MINUTES SIMPLE ± LINEUP CODE#
11 Duncan Jefferson McDyess Neal Parker -65.53 6.48 MEM SAS* -74.03 -10 1928_SAS_2011
12 Blair Neal Splitter Green Novak 11.34 5.72 MEM SAS* 16.79 2 299522_SAS_2011
13 Duncan Ginobili Hill McDyess Parker -18.74 5.30 MEM SAS* -27.17 -3 1384_SAS_2011
14 Bonner Duncan Ginobili Hill Neal 19.40 4.89 MEM SAS* 9.72 1 620_SAS_2011
15 Bonner Duncan Ginobili Jefferson Parker -5.28 4.61 MEM SAS* -20.85 -2 1196_SAS_2011
16 Duncan Ginobili Hill McDyess Neal 19.51 4.18 MEM SAS* 11.45 1 872_SAS_2011
17 Blair Bonner Hill Neal Parker 108.96 3.74 MEM SAS* 102.86 8 1606_SAS_201
Lol, didn’t need +- to tell me Bonnar shouldn’t be playing more than ten minutes, no matter how bad the Spurs defense is, he makes it 50% worse.
Comment by Tony — April 26, 2011 @ 1:40 pm
[...] Is it too Late for the Spurs?: Wayne Winston of Mathletics thinks so, but he uses +/- to show that it didn’t have to be that way. Also of note: Winston’s playoff team ratings. [...]
Pingback by Is it too Late for the Spurs? » Stathead » Blog Archive — April 26, 2011 @ 5:02 pm
what do these #s mean
6 Blair Duncan Hill Jefferson Parker 77.36 8.56
Comment by Rob — April 27, 2011 @ 2:53 am
what are the variances on these figures?
Comment by Rob — April 27, 2011 @ 2:54 am