Here I started with team ratings based on Vegas preseason over under wins. Then I used exponential smoothing with alpha=.10 to update ratings. for example, if a team was favored by 10 in a game and won by 20, their rating would increase by .1*(20-10) = 1 point. This method gives more weight to more recent games. For example weight for last week’s game = .9*weight for current game. With these ratings I cannot predict the score of a game. only margin of victory. NFC is looking tough with top 3 teams.  These ratings seem consistent with the late season declines of NE, GB, DEN, and CINN. They also show the great improvement made by teams like the Lions and Seahawks. I will use these ratings  to estimate playoff probabilities by tomorrow.