March 16, 2015

NCAA picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:36 pm

Based on Sagarin ratings and @RISK here is chance of each team winning each possible number of games in round of 64.

 

  32 16 8 4 2 1
Team Win >=1 Win >=2 Win>=3 Win>=4 Win>=5 Win>=6
KENT 0.9978 0.945 0.8786 0.7674 0.5724 0.426
WISC 0.9844 0.8738 0.6698 0.4184 0.169 0.0988
VILL 0.9882 0.8556 0.6634 0.3846 0.2262 0.0926
UVA 0.9836 0.7888 0.6068 0.3758 0.2206 0.09
DUKE 0.9842 0.8462 0.633 0.4008 0.2284 0.086
ARI 0.9924 0.7868 0.6084 0.3374 0.1318 0.0758
ZAGS 0.9794 0.7594 0.524 0.29 0.1448 0.0488
IOWA ST 0.9448 0.6846 0.2978 0.1268 0.0476 0.0148
UNC 0.8786 0.6274 0.2204 0.098 0.028 0.0104
ND 0.9228 0.5786 0.3292 0.0648 0.0248 0.009
KANS 0.904 0.5888 0.325 0.0704 0.0246 0.008
UTAH 0.7598 0.523 0.2012 0.0916 0.0318 0.008
OKLA 0.9208 0.6274 0.2134 0.081 0.0288 0.0056
BAYLOR 0.841 0.5584 0.2002 0.0708 0.0158 0.0052
VILLE 0.8694 0.566 0.1886 0.0698 0.0254 0.0044
MSU 0.669 0.162 0.086 0.027 0.0116 0.0026
OHIO ST 0.624 0.1542 0.081 0.0246 0.0052 0.0014
N IOWA 0.8082 0.3642 0.0912 0.0252 0.0072 0.0014
WVA 0.7296 0.452 0.0514 0.0204 0.0036 0.0012
IOWA 0.5786 0.1518 0.065 0.0196 0.0042 0.0012
MD 0.7132 0.356 0.038 0.0156 0.0036 0.001
TEXAS 0.494 0.1996 0.0872 0.0124 0.0034 0.001
XAVIER 0.5944 0.256 0.058 0.014 0.0028 0.001
BUTLER 0.506 0.212 0.0882 0.0138 0.0038 0.0008
WICH 0.6676 0.2982 0.1382 0.0212 0.0048 0.0008
PROV 0.6242 0.254 0.0572 0.016 0.0026 0.0008
ARK 0.7894 0.2996 0.064 0.0192 0.0022 0.0006
SMU 0.611 0.2128 0.061 0.0146 0.0044 0.0006
OK ST 0.562 0.0754 0.025 0.0054 0.001 0.0004
GEORGETOWN 0.8538 0.3518 0.0906 0.0262 0.0064 0.0004
CINN 0.5048 0.0278 0.0124 0.0044 0.0006 0.0002
PURDUE 0.4952 0.0272 0.0126 0.0048 0.0008 0.0002
VCU 0.376 0.0582 0.0238 0.0034 0.0006 0.0002
NC ST 0.5678 0.089 0.0342 0.008 0.002 0.0002
LSU 0.4322 0.0538 0.0188 0.004 0.0014 0.0002
SD ST 0.52 0.086 0.0316 0.0098 0.0026 0.0002
ST JOHNS 0.48 0.065 0.0246 0.0066 0.0006 0.0002
BUFF 0.2704 0.1004 0.0046 0.0012 0.0004 0
VALPO 0.2868 0.0916 0.0024 0.0006 0 0
NORTHEAST 0.0772 0.0098 0.001 0 0 0
IND 0.3324 0.0988 0.0296 0.0028 0.0006 0
NM ST 0.096 0.0142 0.0016 0.0002 0 0
COASTAL 0.0156 0.0024 0.0002 0 0 0
ORE 0.438 0.0484 0.0152 0.0018 0 0
WOFF 0.2106 0.0346 0.002 0.0006 0 0
HARV 0.1214 0.0384 0.0034 0.0008 0 0
GA ST 0.159 0.047 0.0036 0 0 0
TEXAS SO 0.0076 0.0008 0 0 0 0
LAFAY 0.0118 0.0016 0 0 0 0
WYO 0.1918 0.0362 0.0022 0 0 0
UC IRV 0.1306 0.0336 0.0016 0.0002 0 0
ALBANY 0.0792 0.0138 0.0008 0 0 0
GA 0.331 0.048 0.019 0.0058 0.0004 0
BELMONT 0.0164 0.0012 0 0 0 0
SFA 0.2402 0.109 0.0174 0.0042 0.0006 0
E WASH 0.1462 0.0162 0.0014 0 0 0
UCLA 0.389 0.094 0.0188 0.003 0.0006 0
UAB 0.0552 0.0086 0 0 0 0
DAVIDSON 0.4214 0.0876 0.0334 0.0068 0.0014 0
ND ST 0.0206 0.0012 0 0 0 0
HAMP 0 0 0 0 0 0
MANH 0.0022 0 0 0 0 0
BYU 0.251 0.092 0.0184 0.004 0.0002 0
MISS 0.1546 0.0466 0.0066 0.0016 0 0
BOISE 0.1912 0.052 0.0074 0.0016 0.0004 0
DAYTON 0.1846 0.0528 0.0094 0.001 0 0
N FLA 0.0118 0.0022 0.0002 0 0 0
ROBERT MORRIS 0.004 0.0006 0 0 0 0

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