Based on my friend and colleagueâs Sagarin ratings, here are my odds on teams winning each region, semis and championship. I only listed teams with at least a 1% chance. I also believe the regions are of relatively equal strength, despite what some commentators said.
South  Region
| Team | Chance |
| Florida | 27.60% |
| Kansas | 22.50% |
| UCLA | 11.80% |
| Ohio state | 9.90% |
| Syracuse | 8.40% |
| Pitt | 6.60% |
| VCU | 6.30% |
| New Mexico | 2.70% |
| Stanford | 2.10% |
East Region
| Team | Chance |
| Vill | 25.20% |
| Virginia | 23.10% |
| Mich St. | 18.70% |
| Iowa St | 14.60% |
| UCONN | 5.00% |
| Cinn | 3.90% |
| UNC | 2.70% |
| Providence | 2.40% |
| Harvard | 1.50% |
| Memphis | 1.30% |
Midwest Region
| Team | Chance |
| Louisville | 36.30% |
| Duke | 17.10% |
| Michigan | 15.20% |
| Wichita | 12.80% |
| UK | 4.90% |
| Iowa | 3.00% |
| Tenn | 2.70% |
| ASU | 2.20% |
| St. Louis | 1.30% |
| Kans. St | 1.20% |
| Texas | 1.20% |
West Region
| Team | Chance |
| Arizona | 42.10% |
| Creighton | 15.20% |
| Wisc | 15.10% |
| San Diego St | 6.20% |
| Ok St. | 5.20% |
| Oklahoma | 4.30% |
| Baylor | 3.90% |
| Oregon | 3.70% |
| Gonzaga | 2.60% |
Semifinal 1
| Team | Chance |
| Vill | 14.50% |
| Florida | 14.10% |
| Virginia | 13.00% |
| Kansas | 12.20% |
| Mich St. | 9.40% |
| Iowa St | 7.20% |
| UCLA | 5.40% |
| Ohio state | 5.00% |
| Syracuse | 4.80% |
| Pitt | 3.20% |
| VCU | 2.70% |
| UCONN | 1.70% |
| UNC | 1.30% |
| Cinn | 1.10% |
Semifinal 2
| Team | Chance |
| Arizona | 23.60% |
| Louisville | 20.60% |
| Duke | 8.50% |
| Wisc | 8.10% |
| Michigan | 7.10% |
| Creighton | 6.80% |
| Wichita | 5.60% |
| UK | 3.20% |
| San Diego St | 3.10% |
| Ok St. | 2.40% |
| Baylor | 1.90% |
| Oklahoma | 1.70% |
| Gonzaga | 1.50% |
| Iowa | 1.30% |
Championship
| Team | Chance |
| Arizona | 18.10% |
| Louisville | 10.90% |
| Florida | 7.70% |
| Virginia | 7.30% |
| Kansas | 6.80% |
| Vill | 6.50% |
| Mich St. | 5.10% |
| Duke | 3.90% |
| Iowa St | 3.70% |
| Michigan | 3.60% |
| Wisc | 3.20% |
| Wichita | 2.90% |
| Creighton | 2.50% |
| Ohio state | 2.30% |
| UK | 1.50% |
| Syracuse | 1.40% |
| Ok St. | 1.40% |
| UCLA | 1.30% |
| San Diego St | 1.20% |
Love your stuff!
Does points per possession for both O & D (say per 80 possessions instead of 100 in the NBA) and point differential have any modeling impact on the NCAA Tournament?
Comment by David — March 17, 2014 @ 12:08 am
Hi Wayne -
Will you be posting your odds to advance each round like you have in the past? I love that data.
Thanks in advance!!!
Matt Callahan
Comment by matt callahan — March 17, 2014 @ 1:19 am
Hi Wayne,
As Matt said, the odds to advance each round is what I use every year - do you plan to add that this year too?
Thanks!
Comment by Johnny — March 17, 2014 @ 11:35 am
I will work on it and certainly have it after play in games at latest.
Comment by wwinston — March 17, 2014 @ 2:15 pm