| Rank | Team | Offense | Defense | Total |
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 7.00 | -2.83 | 9.83 |
| 2 | Miami Heat | 4.83 | -2.85 | 7.68 |
| 3 | San Antonio Spurs | 3.66 | -3.13 | 6.79 |
| 4 | Denver Nuggets | 9.22 | 2.95 | 6.28 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Clippers | 3.13 | -3.09 | 6.22 |
| 6 | Memphis Grizzlies | -6.01 | -10.47 | 4.46 |
| 7 | New York Knicks | 1.53 | -2.60 | 4.12 |
| 8 | Indiana Pacers | -3.32 | -6.94 | 3.62 |
| 9 | Houston Rockets | 7.51 | 4.15 | 3.37 |
| 10 | Atlanta Hawks | 1.41 | -0.34 | 1.75 |
| 11 | Golden State Warriors | 3.34 | 1.65 | 1.69 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Lakers | 4.14 | 2.58 | 1.56 |
| 13 | Dallas Mavericks | 3.48 | 2.52 | 0.97 |
| 14 | Brooklyn Nets | -1.45 | -2.33 | 0.88 |
| 15 | Utah Jazz | -0.43 | -0.19 | -0.25 |
| 16 | Chicago Bulls | -5.36 | -4.48 | -0.88 |
| 17 | Boston Celtics | -1.91 | -0.92 | -0.99 |
| 18 | Portland Trail Blazers | 0.06 | 2.41 | -2.35 |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | -5.05 | -2.62 | -2.43 |
| 20 | New Orleans Hornets | -3.35 | -0.81 | -2.54 |
| 21 | Minnesota Timberwolves | -2.34 | 0.28 | -2.62 |
| 22 | Milwaukee Bucks | 0.91 | 3.76 | -2.85 |
| 23 | Sacramento Kings | 3.44 | 6.60 | -3.16 |
| 24 | Philadelphia 76ers | -4.66 | -1.42 | -3.24 |
| 25 | Toronto Raptors | -2.46 | 1.07 | -3.52 |
| 26 | Detroit Pistons | -2.91 | 1.94 | -4.84 |
| 27 | Cleveland Cavaliers | -1.62 | 3.71 | -5.33 |
| 28 | Phoenix Suns | -3.65 | 2.40 | -6.04 |
| 29 | Orlando Magic | -3.68 | 4.48 | -8.15 |
| 30 | Charlotte Bobcats | -5.47 | 4.53 | -10.00 |
April 15, 2013
NBA ratings April15
6 Comments »
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Out of interest, would you say that Oklahoma are less likely to win their conference than Miami are to win their’s (due to the fact there are more competitive teams in Oklahoma’s conference), but are marginally more likely to win the title outright than Miami (due to the fact that they are the better team in terms of ratings).
Comment by George — April 16, 2013 @ 1:58 pm
Is there a mathematically correct (in principle) adjustment that can be made to the Lakers for the loss of Kobe? All playoff point spreads for Game 1 of all series largely could have been predicted via the Chapter 40 of the book (including the Lakers vs Spurs game), the only thing that stands out largely is the total in the Lakers vs Spurs game and I wondered what an appropriate adjustment may be (for having Meeks in).
Comment by George — April 20, 2013 @ 5:33 pm
George,
IMO, the ability to make adjustments for individual player value is the key to the kingdom. It’s pretty easy to get a line on “teams” over the course of the season. But there are trades, injuries, suspensions, players playing at less than 100%, etc.. and there are no really good models for capturing that value and making adjustments because samples are small a lot of the time “it depends”. A guy like Kobe may have “X” value to LA, but “Y” value to another team.
You can monitor results a team gets when “key” players are in out of the lineup, use advanced adjusted +/- systems, build a linear approach etc.. You can also monitor how the Vegas oddsmakers are adjusting their own lines when late injuries are announced (keep a list), learn from that and eventually incorporate those values. Of course the trick is to value these things BETTER than conventional wisdom.
I would say Kobe is generally NOT worth as much as conventional wisdom (maybe 2-3 points over an average player), but the Lakers have such a poor bench and so many injuries, maybe he’s worth a lot more than that to the Lakers right now.
Comment by Wayne C — April 25, 2013 @ 12:30 pm
This concept just got a little bit more interesting to me given the possible loss of Russell Westbrook to Oklahoma City. The ratings suggested to me that Oklahoma had a better chance than Miami of winning outright (despite a worse chance of winning their conference than Miami due to the fact that their opposition is stronger). I think (and I don’t have the numbers to put on it) that the loss of Westbrook would possibly mean that they don’t clear San Antonio at some point (or maybe Denver or LA) - e.g. going from a 60/40 chance to a 40/60 chance, so they don’t get the chance to play Miami. I think this is possibly the more significant loss of the two, as even with Kobe I don’t the Lakers would have won that Series for a variety of reasons. I totally understand the point above about this being all relative though to the circumstances (e.g. state of team and the effect of a playoff series etc.). I was just trying to figure the reasons behind the adjustment in the total line in that particular game.
Comment by George — April 26, 2013 @ 4:11 pm
Any football predictions
Comment by Seth Parker — September 19, 2013 @ 5:40 pm
Yes I was wondering the same about NFL games?
Comment by GeoC — October 5, 2013 @ 9:58 pm