Here are chances for each playoff team to win their conference and Super Bowl.
| Team | NFC | AFC | Super Bowl |
| ATL | 0.242 | 0.000 | 0.087 |
| SF | 0.447 | 0.000 | 0.233 |
| GB | 0.114 | 0.000 | 0.045 |
| WASH | 0.031 | 0.000 | 0.008 |
| SEA | 0.153 | 0.000 | 0.083 |
| MINN | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| DEN | 0.000 | 0.497 | 0.278 |
| NE | 0.000 | 0.384 | 0.222 |
| HOU | 0.000 | 0.060 | 0.024 |
| BALT | 0.000 | 0.043 | 0.012 |
| IND | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| CINN | 0.000 | 0.014 | 0.005 |
Thanks for posting this as it is really helpful. I’d built a model myself and wasn’t 100% sure I had the formulas right, but using your ratings (I had New England 2pts higher than Denver) I have managed to confirm that I have (I managed to get within 1-2% of your figures in all cases by using your ratings but only ran it 5000 times). Did you use the at @Risk package in with this as well to get the final figures?
Comment by George — January 1, 2013 @ 7:37 am
I did use @risk.
Comment by wwinston — January 5, 2013 @ 8:45 am
Your logic on Seattle makes sense
Comment by wwinston — January 5, 2013 @ 8:46 am
Thanks for this. It’s really helpful to know as it seemed sensible (I just wasn’t sure). I want to check my 11/12 figures but I thought 4 teams were fairly significant (difference of over 2 to the league average over 6 years): Seattle +3.47, Baltimore +2.64 and at the bottom Carolina -2.11 and Miami -2.64.
Comment by George — January 7, 2013 @ 4:55 pm