Here are NFL ratings. Still early but Houston and Atlanta are clearly the class of league so far.
Houston is 15 ppg better than average on offense and 13 ppg better than average on defense. Also home edge is 3.8 points probably due to refs trying to please home crowd.
| Team | Off | Def | Total |
| Houston Texans | 14.99688 | -13.2943 | 28.2912 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 12.60694 | -12.0132 | 24.62016 |
| Denver Broncos | 12.37242 | -6.09753 | 18.46995 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.986774 | -7.97561 | 13.96239 |
| New York Jets | 11.81802 | -1.77193 | 13.58995 |
| Miami Dolphins | 1.19402 | -10.9182 | 12.11219 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1.875521 | -9.36882 | 11.24434 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.850723 | -7.29371 | 10.14444 |
| New England Patriots | 0.054192 | -8.08689 | 8.141085 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.74412 | 5.065373 | 5.67875 |
| Green Bay Packers | -0.73126 | -6.33756 | 5.606299 |
| Buffalo Bills | 3.7861 | -1.48187 | 5.267971 |
| San Diego Chargers | -7.942 | -12.1728 | 4.230786 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -4.82832 | -6.8651 | 2.036787 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1.268421 | 0.017075 | 1.251346 |
| Chicago Bears | -2.78162 | -2.19017 | -0.59145 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -7.69186 | -6.81029 | -0.88157 |
| New York Giants | 7.287142 | 9.591766 | -2.30462 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -5.53291 | -3.18991 | -2.343 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -8.12428 | -5.34637 | -2.77791 |
| Oakland Raiders | 2.688423 | 7.841696 | -5.15327 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -2.05601 | 4.728892 | -6.7849 |
| Cleveland Browns | -4.57491 | 3.024222 | -7.59913 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3.61824 | 5.292859 | -8.9111 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -1.826 | 7.33458 | -9.16058 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -5.28981 | 4.192403 | -9.48222 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.08981 | 13.54692 | -13.4571 |
| St. Louis Rams | -12.647 | 0.988861 | -13.6359 |
| Washington Redskins | 1.458657 | 17.72575 | -16.2671 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.072649 | 18.8098 | -18.7372 |
| Carolina Panthers | -16.2923 | 6.612651 | -22.905 |
| New Orleans Saints | -7.21422 | 16.44141 | -23.6556 |
I just bought the book Mathletics today in order to gain some more insight on betting NFL games. I was excited to see this post after being directed to the site by the book. Now I am curious what formula you used to get your averages, for the post above? Is it the same formula as the regression you talk about in your book? It can’t be the same, but at least similar.
Comment by Tom — September 26, 2012 @ 6:12 pm
a little different than least squares. it is a secret
Comment by wwinston — September 26, 2012 @ 6:25 pm