Based on last 3 weeks Spurs rule.
| Team | off | def | total |
| San Antonio Spurs |
11.66 | -0.99 | 12.65 |
| Denver Nuggets | 8.91 | 0.02 | 8.89 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 9.33 | 0.54 | 8.79 |
| Chicago Bulls | -3.83 | -11.41 | 7.58 |
| Los Angeles Clippers |
1.38 | -5.37 | 6.75 |
| Boston Celtics |
-3.27 | -9.69 | 6.42 |
| New York Knicks |
6.05 | 0.45 | 5.60 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder |
4.28 | -1.07 | 5.35 |
| Utah Jazz | 4.86 | -0.25 | 5.11 |
| Phoenix Suns |
7.03 | 2.83 | 4.20 |
| Memphis Grizzlies |
-3.38 | -6.93 | 3.55 |
| Indiana Pacers |
3.70 | 2.39 | 1.31 |
| Washington Wizards |
-2.82 | -3.96 | 1.14 |
| Miami Heat |
-3.91 | -4.94 | 1.03 |
| Los Angeles Lakers |
3.19 | 2.44 | 0.74 |
| Dallas Mavericks |
4.51 | 4.10 | 0.41 |
| New Orleans Hornets |
-5.20 | -4.96 | -0.24 |
| Houston Rockets |
-0.26 | 0.13 | -0.39 |
| Orlando Magic |
-1.18 | -0.16 | -1.02 |
| Philadelphia 76ers |
-3.45 | -1.44 | -2.01 |
| Milwaukee Bucks |
1.96 | 5.49 | -3.53 |
| Toronto Raptors |
-13.35 | -9.56 | -3.79 |
| Golden State Warriors |
-0.83 | 3.85 | -4.68 |
| Detroit Pistons |
-3.76 | 1.27 | -5.03 |
| Sacramento Kings |
2.63 | 8.35 | -5.72 |
| Portland Trail Blazers |
-1.85 | 4.97 | -6.81 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves |
-3.71 | 5.01 | -8.72 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers |
-3.84 | 5.70 | -9.53 |
| New Jersey Nets |
-1.99 | 7.99 | -9.99 |
| Charlotte Bobcats |
-12.87 | 5.18 | -18.05 |
Is there a formula for converting the point spread of a game into the estimated probability of the team winning?
I have been using this: =NORMDIST(0,spread,12,TRUE)
This seems to be biased towards giving the underdog a slightly higher chance of winning than actual odds on the games (or the bookmakers are making slightly biased lines - can’t be sure). I’m not sure where I got that formula.
Comment by lovethoseknicks — April 28, 2012 @ 2:07 pm