I used a distributed lag model to adjust for fatigue and got the following NBA Ratings.
| Team | off | def | total |
| Miami Heat | 8.97 | 0.36 | 8.61 |
| Chicago Bulls | 2.17 | -5.48 | 7.64 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 8.38 | 1.30 | 7.08 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | -1.80 | -6.97 | 5.16 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 4.67 | -0.43 | 5.10 |
| Portland Trail Blazers |
2.80 | -2.29 | 5.09 |
| Dallas Mavericks | -1.04 | -5.31 | 4.27 |
| Denver Nuggets | 9.13 | 5.95 | 3.18 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 2.39 | -1.06 | 3.45 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | -1.85 | -5.00 | 3.15 |
| Atlanta Hawks | -1.23 | -3.04 | 1.81 |
| Orlando Magic | -2.01 | -3.74 | 1.73 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | -1.95 | -4.28 | 2.33 |
| Indiana Pacers | 0.83 | -0.91 | 1.74 |
| Houston Rockets | 2.07 | 0.05 | 2.02 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves |
1.79 | 0.72 | 1.07 |
| Boston Celtics | -5.70 | -5.12 | -0.59 |
| New York Knicks | -0.68 | 0.43 | -1.11 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | -0.24 | 1.34 | -1.58 |
| Phoenix Suns | 0.48 | 2.44 | -1.96 |
| Golden State Warriors |
3.30 | 4.90 | -1.60 |
| Utah Jazz | 1.18 | 2.05 | -0.86 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | -1.07 | 3.22 | -4.29 |
| New Orleans Hornets | -6.85 | -3.30 | -3.55 |
| New Jersey Nets | -1.90 | 4.27 | -6.17 |
| Toronto Raptors | -6.07 | -0.04 | -6.03 |
| Detroit Pistons | -5.32 | 1.51 | -6.83 |
| Sacramento Kings | -0.01 | 5.87 | -5.88 |
| Washington Wizards | -2.57 | 6.75 | -9.32 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | -7.84 | 5.81 | -13.64 |
distributed lag model?
how did you adjust for fatigue?
Comment by lovethoseknicks — February 27, 2012 @ 10:41 pm
I look at a weighted average of how many games played in last 8 days and based on comparing that for home and road team I adjust prediction. The weight decreases as we go back farther in time.
Comment by wayne winston — February 28, 2012 @ 11:28 am