Here are latest NFL ratings. So Packers have played 17.16 points better than average overall; 14.26 points better than average on offense and 2.96 points better than average on defense. These are not Bayesian ratings, so they just reflect how teams have played so far this year and are probably not yet the best way to forecast future performance.
| off | def | total | |
| Green Bay Packers | 14.20 | -2.96 | 17.16 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.98 | -6.21 | 15.19 |
| New Orleans Saints | 14.22 | 1.24 | 12.97 |
| New England Patriots | 10.72 | -0.55 | 11.27 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.57 | 1.85 | 9.73 |
| Tennessee Titans | 1.26 | -7.61 | 8.87 |
| Detroit Lions | 10.06 | 1.26 | 8.80 |
| Houston Texans | 2.37 | -4.44 | 6.81 |
| Oakland Raiders | 4.40 | -2.36 | 6.77 |
| New York Jets | 6.58 | -0.13 | 6.71 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.30 | -0.97 | 4.26 |
| Chicago Bears | -2.41 | -5.69 | 3.28 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -4.41 | -7.04 | 2.63 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.88 | -1.29 | 2.17 |
| Washington Redskins | -3.78 | -5.14 | 1.36 |
| Denver Broncos | 2.46 | 1.11 | 1.36 |
| Carolina Panthers | 3.44 | 3.42 | 0.02 |
| New York Giants | 2.40 | 2.72 | -0.32 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -6.21 | -4.85 | -1.35 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -2.33 | 0.67 | -3.00 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -12.26 | -7.91 | -4.36 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.98 | 4.19 | -5.17 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -8.08 | -2.90 | -5.18 |
| San Diego Chargers | -3.73 | 2.68 | -6.41 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.77 | 7.80 | -7.03 |
| Miami Dolphins | -6.16 | 1.85 | -8.01 |
| Cleveland Browns | -3.87 | 4.84 | -8.72 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -5.18 | 4.96 | -10.14 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -8.86 | 3.19 | -12.05 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -5.19 | 8.17 | -13.36 |
| St. Louis Rams | -10.92 | 4.56 | -15.48 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -13.22 | 5.54 | -18.76 |
What if your opinion of bayesian ratings for NFL? I have been on Dr. Edward Kambour’s site and there are some differences between yours and his.
Thanks
Comment by john — October 6, 2011 @ 10:10 am
Good point. I like Bayesian but you need a lot of research to optimize weight given to past. Like for Colts last year would be silly to include but for a team like Patriots probably ok. My ratings should simply be considered a picture of how teams have played so far this year. I think after next week they will be pretty meaningful.
Comment by wwinston — October 6, 2011 @ 10:15 am
Great numbers! I am tracking changes week to week Off. and Def. adjusted for opponent and results close to expected outcome from prediction attempts so far. Can you summerize your process? Great work..
Comment by Robert Phinney — October 7, 2011 @ 12:07 pm
Thanks. Simple least squares. See Mathletics book for details
Comment by wwinston — October 7, 2011 @ 12:31 pm
Curious if Tebow will have negative or positive impact for Denver… without using stats my opinion is negative in the long run..
Comment by j — October 12, 2011 @ 10:05 am
I will check this out in 3 weeks or so with Qb RATINGS on advancednflstats.com.
Comment by wwinston — October 12, 2011 @ 1:27 pm
Cardinals are going to be the suprise team for the rest of this season, and certainly, next season.
Comment by Cardinal Critic — November 13, 2011 @ 1:16 am