Here are latest ratings. I gave 20% more weight to playoff games than last week of regular season, and more weight to more recent games.
| Team | off | def | overall | Rank |
| New England Patriots | 13.47 | -2.78 | 16.25 | 1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2.84 | -8.20 | 11.04 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 3.66 | -6.67 | 10.33 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.42 | -7.68 | 9.10 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5.02 | -3.00 | 8.02 | 5 |
| New York Jets | 2.25 | -5.44 | 7.69 | 6 |
| San Diego Chargers | 4.04 | -1.72 | 5.76 | 7 |
| Chicago Bears | -0.40 | -5.24 | 4.84 | 8 |
| New York Giants | 2.30 | -0.51 | 2.82 | 9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4.33 | 1.60 | 2.73 | 10 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2.72 | 0.43 | 2.29 | 11 |
| New Orleans Saints | 3.82 | 2.68 | 1.14 | 12 |
| Tennessee Titans | -1.29 | -2.17 | 0.88 | 13 |
| Detroit Lions | 2.26 | 1.55 | 0.70 | 14 |
| Oakland Raiders | 2.39 | 2.22 | 0.16 | 15 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.55 | -1.63 | 0.08 | 16 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -3.27 | -2.16 | -1.10 | 17 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -2.02 | -0.51 | -1.51 | 18 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.65 | 2.24 | -1.60 | 19 |
| Miami Dolphins | -4.19 | -2.50 | -1.69 | 20 |
| Cleveland Browns | -5.09 | -2.84 | -2.26 | 21 |
| Houston Texans | 1.54 | 4.10 | -2.56 | 22 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2.22 | 5.32 | -3.11 | 23 |
| Washington Redskins | -3.89 | -0.59 | -3.30 | 24 |
| Buffalo Bills | -1.84 | 1.54 | -3.38 | 25 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.35 | 4.23 | -4.58 | 26 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -3.86 | 1.69 | -5.55 | 27 |
| St. Louis Rams | -7.03 | 0.00 | -7.03 | 28 |
| Denver Broncos | -1.08 | 7.78 | -8.86 | 29 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -1.55 | 7.43 | -8.99 | 30 |
| Carolina Panthers | -10.18 | 3.84 | -14.02 | 31 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -7.35 | 6.97 | -14.31 | 32 |
Picks for next week follow:
- GB 21 Atl 20
- Pitt 19 Balt 18
- Chi 30 Sea 14
- NE 31 NYJ 20
I think that the Seahawks/Bears game will be closer than 30-14. I don’t have all your fancy numbers, but the Hawks already beat Chicago in Chicago once this year, and they are probably healthier right now than they have been all year, particularly on offensive line. That’s one variable that I don’t think your numbers above really take into account.
I know with their injuries, etc. New Orleans was probably the second weakest NFC team in the play-offs after the Seahawks, even though they had a better record than the Packers in the regular season. But if Hasselbeck is healthy and continues to play at a high level (like last week), he has more play-off/super bowl experience than any other quarterback in the NFC play-offs at this point. He is also a free agent at the end of what has been a bad season for him in many ways. Pulling off a miracle play-off run would certainly help his stock in that regard. Who knows, maybe that helps to sharpen his focus. Based on last week, the answer seems to be yes.
Cutler, I think, has shown the ability to implode at anytime (although in fairness I suppose the same could be said of Hasselbeck this season). There is a reasonable argument to be made that he is the worst NFC quarterback left in the play-offs (or at least the most historically inconsistent). So if Williams, Lynch and the Seahawks defense can also play well behind Hasselbeck, I think that is a closer game than your prediction.
The thing I’ve started to believe about the NFL is that the difference between a 7-8 win team and a 10-12 win team is often really not that significant and may have more to do with injuries, strength of schedule, and a few lucky breaks than anything else, particularly if both teams have a QB with a history of playing well.
If that 7-8 win team had a lot of injuries through the season, but finally gets healthy at the end, or if they just finally start to come together, well, on any given Sunday, right? Not sure how one captures those variables with statistics, but to ignore them seems to miss an important part of the picture (maybe you could take a look at the projected starting line-ups for each NFL team during week 1 and then see which teams succeeded in fielding that line-up most consistently through the season. It would be interesting to see how jumbled personnel through the season correlates statistically with your numbers above).
Bottom line for me: I won’t be shocked to see the Seahawks lose this week, but I also won’t be shocked to see them win. And if the Packers beat the Atlanta Hawks, as you predict above, and the NFC championship games ends up back at Qwest field, I certainly wouldn’t count the Seahawks out of that game either. Smells a little bit like destiny….
Comment by j-lon — January 10, 2011 @ 1:37 pm
@j-lon
If you assume Seattle will lose, you can’t expect it to be close. Looking from their stats, they either win, or they get blown out. All their losses have been by 15 points or more.
Comment by garron — January 12, 2011 @ 8:11 am
Last thing Wayne, and I doubt you’d have this number but it’d be really cool if you did;
How have your picks faired compared to vegas spreads?
Comment by garron — January 13, 2011 @ 3:40 am
do not know but last week 5-0 including bets on over under.
Comment by wwinston — January 13, 2011 @ 8:25 am