After being (justly) knocked for having the Titans too high I decided to experiment with ratings that give more weight to recent games. The ratings below are based on week 1 games getting a weight of .5, week 2 a weight of .53, etc.
| Team | off | def | overall | Rank |
| New England Patriots | 12.22 | -1.37 | 13.58 | 1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3.90 | -7.03 | 10.93 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 3.01 | -4.43 | 7.44 | 3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4.49 | -2.86 | 7.35 | 4 |
| San Diego Chargers | 2.92 | -3.49 | 6.41 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.92 | -7.25 | 6.33 | 6 |
| New York Jets | 1.51 | -3.35 | 4.86 | 7 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.22 | -4.53 | 4.75 | 8 |
| New York Giants | 2.86 | -1.54 | 4.40 | 9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4.69 | 0.50 | 4.19 | 10 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.91 | -2.50 | 3.42 | 11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4.96 | 2.14 | 2.82 | 12 |
| New Orleans Saints | 2.93 | 0.28 | 2.64 | 13 |
| Tennessee Titans | -0.03 | -1.25 | 1.22 | 14 |
| Miami Dolphins | -3.59 | -4.14 | 0.55 | 15 |
| Detroit Lions | 1.57 | 1.25 | 0.32 | 16 |
| Cleveland Browns | -3.92 | -4.18 | 0.26 | 17 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -3.64 | -3.03 | -0.61 | 18 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.47 | 1.65 | -1.18 | 19 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.87 | 2.14 | -1.28 | 20 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.40 | -1.07 | -1.33 | 21 |
| Oakland Raiders | 1.93 | 4.34 | -2.41 | 22 |
| Washington Redskins | -2.90 | -0.25 | -2.65 | 23 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.14 | 5.91 | -2.77 | 24 |
| Buffalo Bills | -2.19 | 0.61 | -2.80 | 25 |
| Houston Texans | 0.69 | 4.91 | -4.22 | 26 |
| St. Louis Rams | -5.75 | 1.12 | -6.87 | 27 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -5.29 | 2.54 | -7.83 | 28 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -2.71 | 7.50 | -10.21 | 29 |
| Denver Broncos | -3.58 | 6.91 | -10.49 | 30 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -5.66 | 6.14 | -11.80 | 31 |
| Carolina Panthers | -10.71 | 4.34 | -15.05 | 32 |
Giving each game equal weight we get the following ratings.
| Team | off | def | overall | Rank |
| New England Patriots | 11.05 | -0.66 | 11.71 | 1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3.95 | -6.57 | 10.51 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2.67 | -5.05 | 7.72 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.03 | -7.37 | 7.34 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4.11 | -2.64 | 6.75 | 5 |
| San Diego Chargers | 3.35 | -3.12 | 6.47 | 6 |
| New York Jets | 1.89 | -4.18 | 6.08 | 7 |
| Chicago Bears | -0.60 | -4.66 | 4.06 | 8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4.40 | 0.50 | 3.90 | 9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.69 | -2.98 | 3.67 | 10 |
| New York Giants | 2.59 | -0.83 | 3.42 | 11 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.40 | -1.95 | 2.34 | 12 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4.40 | 2.08 | 2.32 | 13 |
| New Orleans Saints | 2.97 | 0.81 | 2.16 | 14 |
| Miami Dolphins | -3.30 | -4.37 | 1.08 | 15 |
| Cleveland Browns | -3.60 | -3.79 | 0.19 | 16 |
| Detroit Lions | 1.23 | 1.61 | -0.38 | 17 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -3.31 | -2.57 | -0.74 | 18 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.34 | 1.32 | -0.98 | 19 |
| Oakland Raiders | 2.07 | 3.64 | -1.57 | 20 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.64 | -0.53 | -2.11 | 21 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.13 | 2.63 | -2.49 | 22 |
| Washington Redskins | -2.79 | -0.04 | -2.75 | 23 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2.59 | 6.23 | -3.64 | 24 |
| Houston Texans | 0.95 | 4.68 | -3.73 | 25 |
| Buffalo Bills | -1.88 | 1.98 | -3.86 | 26 |
| St. Louis Rams | -6.25 | 0.36 | -6.61 | 27 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -4.33 | 2.66 | -6.99 | 28 |
| Denver Broncos | -2.65 | 6.13 | -8.77 | 29 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -2.79 | 6.92 | -9.71 | 30 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -5.00 | 6.17 | -11.17 | 31 |
| Carolina Panthers | -10.60 | 3.60 | -14.20 | 32 |
Note giving the more recent games more weight moves the Pats up nearly two points and the Titans down a point. When I pick the games this week I will use the weighted ratings.
Does that weighting scheme predict better?
People gotta understand these ratings don’t know players are injured.
Comment by Ryan J. Parker — December 29, 2010 @ 3:46 pm
I have not had time yet to check what predicts better later in season. Certainly an important question.
Comment by wwinston — December 29, 2010 @ 3:50 pm
Ironic to see 2 “powerhouses” which will have life/death match, to be at the bottom of ranks (rams, seahawks) well behind i.e. Bills
Comment by avatars — December 29, 2010 @ 5:00 pm
The injuries question I believe would depend on when the injury took place as the data used to derive the power rankings takes into consideration all game up to this point. If the injury to a key player took place last week then you are right but if the injury took place several games ago the impact may be able to be measured.
Comment by John — December 30, 2010 @ 4:52 pm