Sorry I gave Oklahoma no chance to win in last simulation(I had left out there rating). Here are corrected probabilities
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Kansas | 0.48% | 18.02% | 18.36% | 21.12% | 11.94% | 12.18% | 17.90% |
| MSU | 3.54% | 14.32% | 19.60% | 23.80% | 15.10% | 8.42% | 15.22% |
| UNC | 1.70% | 16.36% | 30.68% | 17.72% | 14.68% | 7.94% | 10.92% |
| UVA | 0.64% | 21.88% | 28.26% | 21.28% | 12.22% | 7.26% | 8.46% |
| VILL | 3.70% | 28.10% | 25.34% | 21.00% | 7.48% | 7.16% | 7.22% |
| OKLA | 7.10% | 20.62% | 25.28% | 17.92% | 15.48% | 7.88% | 5.72% |
| WVA | 16.98% | 19.92% | 21.18% | 20.68% | 10.80% | 4.82% | 5.62% |
| ORE | 0.90% | 32.52% | 28.36% | 18.72% | 11.50% | 4.68% | 3.32% |
| PUR | 15.96% | 27.58% | 28.72% | 14.72% | 6.26% | 3.46% | 3.30% |
| UK | 11.10% | 38.24% | 27.42% | 9.90% | 7.52% | 2.94% | 2.88% |
| IND | 10.10% | 43.64% | 25.56% | 9.84% | 5.70% | 2.74% | 2.42% |
| XAV | 7.36% | 31.28% | 30.80% | 17.54% | 7.50% | 3.20% | 2.32% |
| A AND M | 9.56% | 29.78% | 30.40% | 13.98% | 10.46% | 3.60% | 2.22% |
| DUKE | 16.28% | 31.94% | 23.02% | 14.34% | 9.04% | 3.46% | 1.92% |
| MIA | 7.36% | 44.84% | 27.50% | 12.20% | 4.08% | 2.44% | 1.58% |
| ARIZ | 44.56% | 25.50% | 16.08% | 8.42% | 2.72% | 1.50% | 1.22% |
| MD | 18.84% | 32.64% | 33.16% | 8.80% | 3.56% | 1.82% | 1.18% |
| IOWA | 18.64% | 51.98% | 15.72% | 8.58% | 2.58% | 1.72% | 0.78% |
| CAL | 27.28% | 34.80% | 26.96% | 6.98% | 2.26% | 1.02% | 0.70% |
| BAY | 31.12% | 35.00% | 17.28% | 9.58% | 4.64% | 1.68% | 0.70% |
| Wicita | 55.44% | 22.80% | 12.86% | 5.14% | 2.00% | 1.08% | 0.68% |
| ISU | 17.84% | 46.06% | 22.52% | 8.40% | 3.44% | 1.10% | 0.64% |
| TEX | 29.84% | 40.08% | 18.56% | 6.58% | 3.46% | 1.02% | 0.46% |
| GONZ | 44.58% | 23.46% | 21.34% | 6.72% | 2.64% | 0.80% | 0.46% |
| UTAH | 18.62% | 40.26% | 27.64% | 8.46% | 3.40% | 1.20% | 0.42% |
| UCONN | 36.34% | 49.76% | 6.72% | 4.68% | 1.60% | 0.60% | 0.30% |
| HALL | 55.42% | 21.16% | 16.96% | 4.20% | 1.58% | 0.44% | 0.24% |
| VCU | 41.74% | 41.46% | 10.32% | 4.22% | 1.74% | 0.36% | 0.16% |
| MICH | 51.64% | 33.84% | 8.64% | 4.38% | 1.16% | 0.18% | 0.16% |
| SYR | 47.96% | 42.52% | 5.50% | 2.96% | 0.84% | 0.08% | 0.14% |
| WISC | 50.60% | 31.02% | 11.64% | 5.08% | 1.24% | 0.30% | 0.12% |
| BUT | 39.44% | 44.70% | 9.70% | 4.38% | 1.30% | 0.36% | 0.12% |
| STJOES | 57.44% | 29.84% | 8.42% | 3.10% | 0.80% | 0.32% | 0.08% |
| CIN | 42.56% | 36.74% | 12.18% | 5.46% | 2.36% | 0.62% | 0.08% |
| PROV | 50.04% | 41.66% | 5.98% | 1.50% | 0.54% | 0.20% | 0.08% |
| PITT | 49.40% | 31.54% | 12.58% | 4.68% | 1.34% | 0.38% | 0.08% |
| COLO | 63.66% | 31.78% | 2.58% | 1.52% | 0.30% | 0.12% | 0.04% |
| OR ST | 58.26% | 32.52% | 6.66% | 1.78% | 0.64% | 0.10% | 0.04% |
| ND | 48.36% | 35.84% | 9.68% | 4.94% | 0.98% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| YALE | 68.88% | 21.24% | 6.98% | 2.04% | 0.68% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| USC | 49.96% | 40.66% | 7.12% | 1.74% | 0.46% | 0.04% | 0.02% |
| SFA | 83.02% | 10.40% | 4.48% | 1.66% | 0.32% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| Aus Peay | 99.52% | 0.44% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SDST | 81.16% | 13.30% | 5.04% | 0.44% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| HAW | 72.72% | 19.26% | 7.14% | 0.72% | 0.10% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| BUFF | 92.64% | 6.86% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| TEMPLE | 81.36% | 16.58% | 1.70% | 0.34% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UNCA | 96.30% | 3.34% | 0.36% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| FCGU | 99.10% | 0.90% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UNCW | 83.72% | 11.82% | 3.76% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UNI | 70.16% | 22.72% | 5.44% | 1.24% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.00% |
| GB | 90.44% | 7.42% | 1.90% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CSB | 92.90% | 5.40% | 1.44% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| FGCU | 98.30% | 1.32% | 0.38% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CHAT | 89.90% | 9.06% | 1.02% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| STONY | 88.90% | 9.06% | 1.84% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| WEB | 92.64% | 6.16% | 1.00% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| HAM | 99.36% | 0.58% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| TEXAS TECH | 60.56% | 32.84% | 4.54% | 1.64% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| UALR | 84.04% | 11.08% | 3.94% | 0.80% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| IONA | 82.16% | 15.28% | 2.26% | 0.22% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| FRES | 81.38% | 15.12% | 3.26% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| DAYTON | 52.04% | 40.40% | 5.04% | 2.08% | 0.32% | 0.12% | 0.00% |
| MTSU | 96.46% | 2.76% | 0.66% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Here is chance each team wins >=N games
| Team | >=1 | >=2 | >=3 | >=4 | >=5 | >=6 |
| Kansas | 99.52% | 81.50% | 63.14% | 42.02% | 30.08% | 17.90% |
| MSU | 96.46% | 82.14% | 62.54% | 38.74% | 23.64% | 15.22% |
| UNC | 98.30% | 81.94% | 51.26% | 33.54% | 18.86% | 10.92% |
| UVA | 99.36% | 77.48% | 49.22% | 27.94% | 15.72% | 8.46% |
| VILL | 96.30% | 68.20% | 42.86% | 21.86% | 14.38% | 7.22% |
| OKLA | 92.90% | 72.28% | 47.00% | 29.08% | 13.60% | 5.72% |
| WVA | 83.02% | 63.10% | 41.92% | 21.24% | 10.44% | 5.62% |
| ORE | 99.10% | 66.58% | 38.22% | 19.50% | 8.00% | 3.32% |
| PUR | 84.04% | 56.46% | 27.74% | 13.02% | 6.76% | 3.30% |
| UK | 88.90% | 50.66% | 23.24% | 13.34% | 5.82% | 2.88% |
| IND | 89.90% | 46.26% | 20.70% | 10.86% | 5.16% | 2.42% |
| XAV | 92.64% | 61.36% | 30.56% | 13.02% | 5.52% | 2.32% |
| A AND M | 90.44% | 60.66% | 30.26% | 16.28% | 5.82% | 2.22% |
| DUKE | 83.72% | 51.78% | 28.76% | 14.42% | 5.38% | 1.92% |
| MIA | 92.64% | 47.80% | 20.30% | 8.10% | 4.02% | 1.58% |
| ARIZ | 55.44% | 29.94% | 13.86% | 5.44% | 2.72% | 1.22% |
| MD | 81.16% | 48.52% | 15.36% | 6.56% | 3.00% | 1.18% |
| IOWA | 81.36% | 29.38% | 13.66% | 5.08% | 2.50% | 0.78% |
| CAL | 72.72% | 37.92% | 10.96% | 3.98% | 1.72% | 0.70% |
| BAY | 68.88% | 33.88% | 16.60% | 7.02% | 2.38% | 0.70% |
| Wicita | 44.56% | 21.76% | 8.90% | 3.76% | 1.76% | 0.68% |
| ISU | 82.16% | 36.10% | 13.58% | 5.18% | 1.74% | 0.64% |
| TEX | 70.16% | 30.08% | 11.52% | 4.94% | 1.48% | 0.46% |
| GONZ | 55.42% | 31.96% | 10.62% | 3.90% | 1.26% | 0.46% |
| UTAH | 81.38% | 41.12% | 13.48% | 5.02% | 1.62% | 0.42% |
| UCONN | 63.66% | 13.90% | 7.18% | 2.50% | 0.90% | 0.30% |
| HALL | 44.58% | 23.42% | 6.46% | 2.26% | 0.68% | 0.24% |
| VCU | 58.26% | 16.80% | 6.48% | 2.26% | 0.52% | 0.16% |
| MICH | 48.36% | 14.52% | 5.88% | 1.50% | 0.34% | 0.16% |
| SYR | 52.04% | 9.52% | 4.02% | 1.06% | 0.22% | 0.14% |
| WISC | 49.40% | 18.38% | 6.74% | 1.66% | 0.42% | 0.12% |
| BUT | 60.56% | 15.86% | 6.16% | 1.78% | 0.48% | 0.12% |
| STJOES | 42.56% | 12.72% | 4.30% | 1.20% | 0.40% | 0.08% |
| CIN | 57.44% | 20.70% | 8.52% | 3.06% | 0.70% | 0.08% |
| PROV | 49.96% | 8.30% | 2.32% | 0.82% | 0.28% | 0.08% |
| PITT | 50.60% | 19.06% | 6.48% | 1.80% | 0.46% | 0.08% |
| COLO | 36.34% | 4.56% | 1.98% | 0.46% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| OR ST | 41.74% | 9.22% | 2.56% | 0.78% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| ND | 51.64% | 15.80% | 6.12% | 1.18% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| YALE | 31.12% | 9.88% | 2.90% | 0.86% | 0.18% | 0.02% |
| USC | 50.04% | 9.38% | 2.26% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| SFA | 16.98% | 6.58% | 2.10% | 0.44% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| Aus Peay | 0.48% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SDST | 18.84% | 5.54% | 0.50% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| HAW | 27.28% | 8.02% | 0.88% | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| BUFF | 7.36% | 0.50% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| TEMPLE | 18.64% | 2.06% | 0.36% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UNCA | 3.70% | 0.36% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| FCGU | 0.90% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UNCW | 16.28% | 4.46% | 0.70% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UNI | 29.84% | 7.12% | 1.68% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.00% |
| GB | 9.56% | 2.14% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CSB | 7.10% | 1.70% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| FGCU | 1.70% | 0.38% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CHAT | 10.10% | 1.04% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| STONY | 11.10% | 2.04% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| WEB | 7.36% | 1.20% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| HAM | 0.64% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| TEXAS TECH | 39.44% | 6.60% | 2.06% | 0.42% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| UALR | 15.96% | 4.88% | 0.94% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| IONA | 17.84% | 2.56% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| FRES | 18.62% | 3.50% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| DAYTON | 47.96% | 7.56% | 2.52% | 0.44% | 0.12% | 0.00% |
| MTSU | 3.54% | 0.78% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |