March 26, 2015

Projected NBA final standings March 26

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:51 am
Rank Team W L
1 Atlanta Hawks 61 21
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 55 27
3 Chicago Bulls 49 33
4 Toronto Raptors 47 35
5 Washington Wizards 44 38
6 Milwaukee Bucks 39 43
7 Miami Heat 39 43
8 Indiana Pacers 38 44
9 Brooklyn Nets 37 45
10 Boston Celtics 37 45
11 Charlotte Hornets 35 47
12 Detroit Pistons 32 50
13 Orlando Magic 25 57
14 Philadelphia 76ers 22 60
15 New York Knicks 16 66
Rank Team W L
1 Golden State Warriors 66 16
2 Houston Rockets 54 28
3 Los Angeles Clippers 54 28
4 Memphis Grizzlies 54 28
5 San Antonio Spurs 53 29
6 Portland Trail Blazers 52 30
7 Dallas Mavericks 49 33
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 47 35
9 New Orleans Pelicans 43 39
10 Phoenix Suns 41 41
11 Utah Jazz 39 43
12 Denver Nuggets 30 52
13 Sacramento Kings 28 54
14 Los Angeles Lakers 25 57
15 Minnesota Timberwolves 20 62

NBA Ratings MArch 26

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:49 am

Based on games since all star break,

 

Team Offense Defense Rating Off Rank Def Rank
Cleveland   Cavaliers 9.41 -3.68 13.09 2 3
Golden   State Warriors 9.18 -0.01 9.18 3 16
San   Antonio Spurs 9.04 0.52 8.52 4 17
Los   Angeles Clippers 4.00 -1.38 5.39 7 11
Utah Jazz -8.72 -13.89 5.18 29 1
Oklahoma   City Thunder 11.38 8.00 3.38 1 29
Houston   Rockets 4.64 1.38 3.26 6 21
Portland Trail Blazers 3.72 0.65 3.07 8 19
Indiana   Pacers -1.44 -3.24 1.81 17 5
Miami   Heat -0.97 -2.41 1.44 16 8
Atlanta   Hawks -1.71 -3.07 1.36 19 7
Boston   Celtics 1.03 -0.20 1.22 10 15
New   Orleans Pelicans -2.77 -3.57 0.80 23 4
Memphis   Grizzlies -4.59 -5.34 0.75 24 2
Brooklyn   Nets 4.75 4.98 -0.22 5 28
Dallas   Mavericks -1.60 -1.33 -0.27 18 12
Chicago   Bulls -2.27 -1.94 -0.33 20 9
Detroit   Pistons -0.12 0.54 -0.66 12 18
Phoenix   Suns -2.30 -0.79 -1.51 21 14
Toronto   Raptors 1.58 3.20 -1.62 9 23
Los   Angeles Lakers -0.34 1.40 -1.74 14 22
Charlotte   Hornets -5.23 -3.13 -2.10 28 6
Milwaukee   Bucks -5.07 -1.46 -3.62 27 10
Washington   Wizards -4.85 -1.12 -3.73 26 13
Denver   Nuggets -0.23 3.66 -3.89 13 24
Minnesota   Timberwolves -0.47 4.70 -5.16 15 27
Philadelphia   76ers -4.82 0.70 -5.53 25 20
Orlando   Magic -2.45 4.07 -6.52 22 25
Sacramento   Kings 0.00 8.50 -8.50 11 30
New York   Knicks -8.78 4.25 -13.03 30 26

March 23, 2015

Sweet 16 ODDS

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:04 am
Team >=3 >=4 >=5 6
KENT 89.08% 74.90% 52.60% 39.44%
DUKE 65.36% 41.88% 31.60% 14.18%
ARI 82.02% 47.38% 20.88% 13.20%
ZAGS 82.76% 38.02% 25.74% 9.66%
WISC 66.72% 35.44% 14.54% 8.56%
UTAH 34.64% 17.56% 11.10% 3.58%
VILLE 64.86% 33.54% 11.22% 2.64%
MSU 50.52% 27.86% 9.48% 2.20%
ND 54.02% 12.20% 4.10% 1.62%
OKLA 49.48% 26.22% 7.68% 1.56%
UNC 33.28% 12.52% 3.40% 1.44%
WICH 45.98% 8.62% 2.64% 0.92%
WVA 10.92% 4.28% 1.20% 0.36%
NC ST 35.14% 12.38% 2.28% 0.32%
XAVIER 17.98% 4.66% 0.64% 0.24%
UCLA 17.24% 2.54% 0.90% 0.08%

March 21, 2015

Projected Final NBA standings March 21

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:27 am
Rank Team Wins Losses
1 Atlanta Hawks 61 21
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 55 27
3 Chicago Bulls 48 34
4 Toronto Raptors 48 34
5 Washington Wizards 46 36
6 Milwaukee Bucks 39 43
7 Indiana Pacers 39 43
8 Miami Heat 39 43
9 Boston Celtics 37 45
10 Brooklyn Nets 36 46
11 Charlotte Hornets 36 46
12 Detroit Pistons 30 52
13 Orlando Magic 27 55
14 Philadelphia 76ers 22 60
15 New York Knicks 17 65
Rank Team Wins Losses
1 Golden State Warriors 65 17
2 Houston Rockets 54 28
3 Memphis Grizzlies 54 28
4 Los Angeles Clippers 53 29
5 Portland Trail Blazers 53 29
6 San Antonio Spurs 52 30
7 Dallas Mavericks 48 34
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 47 35
9 New Orleans Pelicans 44 38
10 Phoenix Suns 41 41
11 Utah Jazz 41 41
12 Denver Nuggets 30 52
13 Sacramento Kings 26 56
14 Los Angeles Lakers 24 58
15 Minnesota Timberwolves 19 63

NBA Ratings March 21

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:26 am

Based on games after All-star break

Team Offense Defense Rating Off Rank Def Rank
Cleveland Cavaliers 9.02 -3.38 12.40 2 5
Golden State Warriors 7.89 0.00 7.90 4 16
Utah Jazz -9.28 -16.26 6.98 30 1
San Antonio Spurs 8.51 2.36 6.15 3 23
Los Angeles Clippers 3.17 -0.88 4.05 8 11
Oklahoma City Thunder 12.92 8.92 4.01 1 29
Portland Trail Blazers 3.82 -0.12 3.94 7 15
Indiana Pacers -2.54 -6.31 3.77 20 2
Houston Rockets 4.52 0.99 3.54 6 18
Miami Heat 1.72 -0.17 1.88 10 14
Atlanta Hawks -1.28 -2.97 1.69 16 6
Boston Celtics 1.85 0.38 1.47 9 17
New Orleans Pelicans -3.17 -3.84 0.67 22 4
Memphis Grizzlies -4.52 -4.65 0.13 27 3
Brooklyn Nets 4.78 5.21 -0.43 5 28
Toronto Raptors 1.21 2.07 -0.86 11 22
Chicago Bulls -3.09 -2.09 -1.00 21 8
Dallas Mavericks -1.53 -0.46 -1.07 17 13
Washington Wizards -3.38 -1.81 -1.56 24 9
Charlotte Hornets -4.75 -2.64 -2.10 28 7
Los Angeles Lakers -1.25 1.01 -2.26 15 19
Detroit Pistons -1.20 1.08 -2.28 14 20
Phoenix Suns -3.33 -1.02 -2.32 23 10
Milwaukee Bucks -4.36 -0.81 -3.56 25 12
Denver Nuggets -0.44 3.66 -4.10 13 25
Orlando Magic -1.72 3.22 -4.94 18 24
Minnesota Timberwolves -1.87 3.73 -5.60 19 26
Philadelphia 76ers -4.43 1.24 -5.67 26 21
Sacramento Kings 0.00 9.39 -9.39 12 30
New York Knicks -7.29 4.14 -11.44 29 27

Updated NCAA odds Saturday March 21

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:14 am

Here are updated odds. So UK has 95.88% chance of winning at least 2 games, 88.04% chance of winning at least 3 games, etc.

 

16

8

4

2

1

Team

>=2

>=3

>=4

>=5

>=6

KENT

95.88%

88.04%

76.42%

56.50%

42.16%

VILL

85.94%

66.36%

41.46%

25.90%

11.26%

WISC

88.84%

67.54%

43.58%

17.76%

10.18%

DUKE

84.60%

60.40%

41.50%

23.74%

8.96%

ARI

74.04%

61.12%

33.78%

13.78%

7.52%

UVA

73.68%

56.22%

31.88%

18.38%

7.50%

ZAGS

70.32%

59.76%

29.50%

13.86%

4.40%

UTAH

67.04%

25.98%

13.98%

5.60%

1.60%

UNC

66.52%

22.16%

9.30%

2.60%

1.12%

OKLA

73.88%

25.18%

9.68%

3.54%

0.84%

ND

55.80%

28.88%

6.44%

2.14%

0.82%

KANS

56.86%

30.18%

5.96%

2.06%

0.60%

MSU

26.32%

14.40%

5.18%

1.94%

0.46%

VILLE

55.24%

17.14%

6.08%

2.18%

0.42%

BUTLER

44.20%

21.58%

3.74%

1.12%

0.40%

IOWA

29.68%

21.02%

6.76%

1.88%

0.32%

XAVIER

73.38%

19.72%

5.46%

0.94%

0.24%

OHIO ST

25.96%

15.96%

5.24%

0.88%

0.24%

N IOWA

44.76%

11.38%

3.96%

1.12%

0.22%

WICH

43.14%

19.36%

3.00%

0.92%

0.20%

GEORGETOWN

32.96%

8.14%

3.12%

0.78%

0.14%

WVA

53.98%

5.62%

2.36%

0.52%

0.12%

MD

46.02%

4.80%

1.68%

0.38%

0.10%

UCLA

78.74%

18.12%

3.22%

0.52%

0.06%

SD ST

15.40%

5.48%

1.82%

0.26%

0.04%

ORE

11.16%

3.44%

0.68%

0.06%

0.02%

ARK

33.48%

6.86%

1.76%

0.28%

0.02%

NC ST

14.06%

5.12%

1.04%

0.16%

0.02%

DAYTON

26.12%

4.20%

0.72%

0.12%

0.02%

CINN

4.12%

1.54%

0.40%

0.06%

0.00%

GA ST

26.62%

3.20%

0.20%

0.00%

0.00%

UAB

21.26%

1.10%

0.10%

0.02%

0.00%

March 17, 2015

Projected Final NBA standings March 17

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 1:27 pm

Based on last month of play.

Rank Team Wins Losses
1 Atlanta Hawks 62 20
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 54 28
3 Toronto Raptors 48 34
4 Chicago Bulls 47 35
5 Washington Wizards 45 37
6 Indiana Pacers 41 41
7 Milwaukee Bucks 40 42
8 Boston Celtics 38 44
9 Miami Heat 38 44
10 Brooklyn Nets 36 46
11 Charlotte Hornets 36 46
12 Detroit Pistons 31 51
13 Orlando Magic 25 57
14 Philadelphia 76ers 21 61
15 New York Knicks 16 66
Rank Team W L
1 Golden State Warriors 64 18
2 Portland Trail Blazers 55 27
3 Houston Rockets 54 28
4 Los Angeles Clippers 53 29
5 Memphis Grizzlies 53 29
6 San Antonio Spurs 53 29
7 Dallas Mavericks 49 33
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 46 36
9 New Orleans Pelicans 44 38
10 Utah Jazz 42 40
11 Phoenix Suns 39 43
12 Denver Nuggets 31 51
13 Sacramento Kings 25 57
14 Los Angeles Lakers 24 58
15 Minnesota Timberwolves 20 62

 

NBA Ratings March 17

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 1:03 pm

Based on last month of play.

 

Team Offense Defense Rating Off Rank Def Rank
Cleveland Cavaliers 9.52 -1.28 10.81 2 11
San Antonio Spurs 9.19 1.29 7.90 3 18
Utah Jazz -7.86 -15.49 7.63 30 1
Golden State Warriors 6.49 0.00 6.49 4 15
Portland Trail Blazers 4.20 -2.01 6.21 6 7
Oklahoma City Thunder 11.76 6.61 5.16 1 29
Indiana Pacers -0.97 -6.08 5.11 17 3
Los Angeles Clippers 3.32 -1.75 5.07 7 9
Houston Rockets 6.32 2.52 3.79 5 22
Atlanta Hawks -2.87 -4.94 2.07 21 4
Dallas Mavericks -1.47 -2.52 1.05 18 5
New Orleans Pelicans 0.77 -0.14 0.91 11 14
Boston Celtics 0.88 0.14 0.74 10 16
Miami Heat 0.44 0.26 0.18 12 17
Toronto Raptors 1.24 1.34 -0.10 9 19
Brooklyn Nets 1.93 2.07 -0.14 8 20
Memphis Grizzlies -6.56 -6.40 -0.16 28 2
Chicago Bulls -3.13 -2.22 -0.90 23 6
Detroit Pistons -1.51 -0.41 -1.10 19 13
Washington Wizards -4.34 -1.94 -2.40 25 8
Denver Nuggets -0.02 2.60 -2.62 15 23
Phoenix Suns 0.04 3.01 -2.97 13 25
Charlotte Hornets -4.29 -0.97 -3.33 24 12
Los Angeles Lakers -0.48 2.87 -3.36 16 24
Milwaukee Bucks -5.80 -1.56 -4.23 27 10
Minnesota Timberwolves -1.59 3.23 -4.82 20 26
Orlando Magic -4.56 2.16 -6.72 26 21
Philadelphia 76ers -2.99 4.00 -6.99 22 27
Sacramento Kings 0.00 10.89 -10.89 14 30
New York Knicks -7.66 4.73 -12.39 29 28

March 16, 2015

NCAA picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:36 pm

Based on Sagarin ratings and @RISK here is chance of each team winning each possible number of games in round of 64.

 

  32 16 8 4 2 1
Team Win >=1 Win >=2 Win>=3 Win>=4 Win>=5 Win>=6
KENT 0.9978 0.945 0.8786 0.7674 0.5724 0.426
WISC 0.9844 0.8738 0.6698 0.4184 0.169 0.0988
VILL 0.9882 0.8556 0.6634 0.3846 0.2262 0.0926
UVA 0.9836 0.7888 0.6068 0.3758 0.2206 0.09
DUKE 0.9842 0.8462 0.633 0.4008 0.2284 0.086
ARI 0.9924 0.7868 0.6084 0.3374 0.1318 0.0758
ZAGS 0.9794 0.7594 0.524 0.29 0.1448 0.0488
IOWA ST 0.9448 0.6846 0.2978 0.1268 0.0476 0.0148
UNC 0.8786 0.6274 0.2204 0.098 0.028 0.0104
ND 0.9228 0.5786 0.3292 0.0648 0.0248 0.009
KANS 0.904 0.5888 0.325 0.0704 0.0246 0.008
UTAH 0.7598 0.523 0.2012 0.0916 0.0318 0.008
OKLA 0.9208 0.6274 0.2134 0.081 0.0288 0.0056
BAYLOR 0.841 0.5584 0.2002 0.0708 0.0158 0.0052
VILLE 0.8694 0.566 0.1886 0.0698 0.0254 0.0044
MSU 0.669 0.162 0.086 0.027 0.0116 0.0026
OHIO ST 0.624 0.1542 0.081 0.0246 0.0052 0.0014
N IOWA 0.8082 0.3642 0.0912 0.0252 0.0072 0.0014
WVA 0.7296 0.452 0.0514 0.0204 0.0036 0.0012
IOWA 0.5786 0.1518 0.065 0.0196 0.0042 0.0012
MD 0.7132 0.356 0.038 0.0156 0.0036 0.001
TEXAS 0.494 0.1996 0.0872 0.0124 0.0034 0.001
XAVIER 0.5944 0.256 0.058 0.014 0.0028 0.001
BUTLER 0.506 0.212 0.0882 0.0138 0.0038 0.0008
WICH 0.6676 0.2982 0.1382 0.0212 0.0048 0.0008
PROV 0.6242 0.254 0.0572 0.016 0.0026 0.0008
ARK 0.7894 0.2996 0.064 0.0192 0.0022 0.0006
SMU 0.611 0.2128 0.061 0.0146 0.0044 0.0006
OK ST 0.562 0.0754 0.025 0.0054 0.001 0.0004
GEORGETOWN 0.8538 0.3518 0.0906 0.0262 0.0064 0.0004
CINN 0.5048 0.0278 0.0124 0.0044 0.0006 0.0002
PURDUE 0.4952 0.0272 0.0126 0.0048 0.0008 0.0002
VCU 0.376 0.0582 0.0238 0.0034 0.0006 0.0002
NC ST 0.5678 0.089 0.0342 0.008 0.002 0.0002
LSU 0.4322 0.0538 0.0188 0.004 0.0014 0.0002
SD ST 0.52 0.086 0.0316 0.0098 0.0026 0.0002
ST JOHNS 0.48 0.065 0.0246 0.0066 0.0006 0.0002
BUFF 0.2704 0.1004 0.0046 0.0012 0.0004 0
VALPO 0.2868 0.0916 0.0024 0.0006 0 0
NORTHEAST 0.0772 0.0098 0.001 0 0 0
IND 0.3324 0.0988 0.0296 0.0028 0.0006 0
NM ST 0.096 0.0142 0.0016 0.0002 0 0
COASTAL 0.0156 0.0024 0.0002 0 0 0
ORE 0.438 0.0484 0.0152 0.0018 0 0
WOFF 0.2106 0.0346 0.002 0.0006 0 0
HARV 0.1214 0.0384 0.0034 0.0008 0 0
GA ST 0.159 0.047 0.0036 0 0 0
TEXAS SO 0.0076 0.0008 0 0 0 0
LAFAY 0.0118 0.0016 0 0 0 0
WYO 0.1918 0.0362 0.0022 0 0 0
UC IRV 0.1306 0.0336 0.0016 0.0002 0 0
ALBANY 0.0792 0.0138 0.0008 0 0 0
GA 0.331 0.048 0.019 0.0058 0.0004 0
BELMONT 0.0164 0.0012 0 0 0 0
SFA 0.2402 0.109 0.0174 0.0042 0.0006 0
E WASH 0.1462 0.0162 0.0014 0 0 0
UCLA 0.389 0.094 0.0188 0.003 0.0006 0
UAB 0.0552 0.0086 0 0 0 0
DAVIDSON 0.4214 0.0876 0.0334 0.0068 0.0014 0
ND ST 0.0206 0.0012 0 0 0 0
HAMP 0 0 0 0 0 0
MANH 0.0022 0 0 0 0 0
BYU 0.251 0.092 0.0184 0.004 0.0002 0
MISS 0.1546 0.0466 0.0066 0.0016 0 0
BOISE 0.1912 0.052 0.0074 0.0016 0.0004 0
DAYTON 0.1846 0.0528 0.0094 0.001 0 0
N FLA 0.0118 0.0022 0.0002 0 0 0
ROBERT MORRIS 0.004 0.0006 0 0 0 0

March 12, 2015

Projected Final NBA Standings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:36 am

Based on last month of play.

 

Rank Team Wins Losses
1 Atlanta Hawks 61 21
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 54 28
3 Chicago Bulls 49 33
4 Toronto Raptors 47 35
5 Indiana Pacers 44 38
6 Washington Wizards 43 39
7 Milwaukee Bucks 41 41
8 Boston Celtics 36 46
9 Charlotte Hornets 36 46
10 Miami Heat 36 46
11 Brooklyn Nets 32 50
12 Detroit Pistons 31 51
13 Orlando Magic 26 56
14 Philadelphia 76ers 22 60
15 New York Knicks 15 67
Rank Team W L
1 Golden State Warriors 65 17
2 Los Angeles Clippers 55 27
3 Portland Trail Blazers 55 27
4 Houston Rockets 54 28
5 Memphis Grizzlies 54 28
6 San Antonio Spurs 53 29
7 Dallas Mavericks 47 35
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 47 35
9 New Orleans Pelicans 44 38
10 Phoenix Suns 40 42
11 Utah Jazz 39 43
12 Denver Nuggets 29 53
13 Sacramento Kings 27 55
14 Los Angeles Lakers 25 57
15 Minnesota Timberwolves 23 59
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