November 13, 2017

NFL Ratings Nov 13

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:59 pm

The amazing Saints and Rams top our ratings.

Rank Team Off Def Total
1 New Orleans Saints 8.69 -3.88 12.58
2 Los Angeles Rams 9.59 -2.72 12.31
3 Jacksonville Jaguars 2.64 -6.56 9.20
4 Philadelphia Eagles 9.15 0.16 8.99
5 New England Patriots 7.06 -0.61 7.66
6 Kansas City Chiefs 6.07 -0.80 6.87
7 Minnesota Vikings 2.19 -4.14 6.32
8 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.63 -5.72 5.09
9 Detroit Lions 6.49 2.58 3.91
10 Carolina Panthers -3.34 -6.77 3.43
11 Seattle Seahawks -0.73 -3.42 2.69
12 Atlanta Falcons 0.24 -2.42 2.66
13 Dallas Cowboys 3.35 0.72 2.64
14 Green Bay Packers 2.15 0.31 1.83
15 Baltimore Ravens 0.06 -0.86 0.92
16 Washington Redskins 1.17 0.25 0.92
17 Houston Texans 4.04 4.16 -0.12
18 Los Angeles Chargers -3.87 -3.47 -0.41
19 Chicago Bears -3.10 -1.33 -1.77
20 Buffalo Bills -1.45 1.21 -2.66
21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.86 1.73 -3.59
22 Oakland Raiders -0.75 2.91 -3.66
23 Tennessee Titans -0.16 4.02 -4.17
24 New York Jets -2.20 1.99 -4.19
25 Cincinnati Bengals -6.20 -1.44 -4.76
26 Denver Broncos -3.64 3.61 -7.25
27 Arizona Cardinals -6.21 1.21 -7.42
28 Miami Dolphins -7.52 0.41 -7.93
29 New York Giants -5.54 2.75 -8.29
30 San Francisco 49ers -4.62 4.29 -8.91
31 Indianapolis Colts -3.95 6.95 -10.91
32 Cleveland Browns -7.10 4.89 -11.99

NBA Ratings November 13

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:42 am

Warriors are lapping the field.Pistons and Grizzlies are my surprise teams so far.

Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Golden State Warriors 15.54 2.03 13.52
2 Houston Rockets 6.42 -2.14 8.56
3 Boston Celtics -3.72 -11.32 7.60
4 Toronto Raptors 5.67 0.12 5.55
5 Memphis Grizzlies -4.50 -8.94 4.44
6 Detroit Pistons -0.86 -5.24 4.38
7 Oklahoma City Thunder -0.93 -5.08 4.15
8 San Antonio Spurs -3.58 -6.12 2.54
9 Washington Wizards 3.48 1.05 2.44
10 Portland Trail Blazers -2.18 -4.61 2.43
11 Los Angeles Clippers 3.46 1.59 1.87
12 Orlando Magic 4.87 3.17 1.70
13 Philadelphia 76ers 4.12 3.07 1.06
14 Charlotte Hornets -0.26 -0.97 0.71
15 New Orleans Pelicans 1.54 0.85 0.70
16 Denver Nuggets 0.01 -0.66 0.67
17 New York Knicks -0.33 -0.61 0.28
18 Milwaukee Bucks 0.23 0.71 -0.47
19 Miami Heat -3.59 -2.65 -0.94
20 Indiana Pacers 2.95 4.04 -1.09
21 Minnesota Timberwolves 4.45 6.29 -1.84
22 Los Angeles Lakers -1.23 1.32 -2.55
23 Utah Jazz -9.23 -6.46 -2.77
24 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.94 8.05 -4.12
25 Brooklyn Nets 2.74 8.38 -5.64
26 Dallas Mavericks -5.69 1.35 -7.04
27 Atlanta Hawks -2.25 5.03 -7.28
28 Sacramento Kings -10.19 -1.13 -9.06
29 Chicago Bulls -11.88 -2.75 -9.13
30 Phoenix Suns 0.98 11.64 -10.67

November 6, 2017

November 6 NBA Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:41 am

The Cavs are really bad.

Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Golden State Warriors 18.08 6.06 12.01
2 Boston Celtics -2.50 -11.62 9.13
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.44 -7.90 8.34
4 Toronto Raptors 4.40 -3.19 7.59
5 Houston Rockets 5.80 -0.97 6.77
6 Portland Trail Blazers 0.11 -5.31 5.42
7 Detroit Pistons -2.24 -6.57 4.33
8 Los Angeles Clippers 1.72 -2.53 4.25
9 Memphis Grizzlies -5.04 -9.11 4.07
10 Washington Wizards 5.19 1.78 3.42
11 Philadelphia 76ers 3.54 1.88 1.66
12 San Antonio Spurs -6.55 -7.56 1.01
13 Orlando Magic 3.49 2.78 0.71
14 Indiana Pacers 4.36 3.78 0.58
15 Minnesota Timberwolves 6.90 6.36 0.55
16 Utah Jazz -6.77 -6.53 -0.25
17 Charlotte Hornets -0.98 -0.37 -0.61
18 New York Knicks -2.50 -1.57 -0.93
19 Denver Nuggets -0.92 0.34 -1.26
20 New Orleans Pelicans -0.57 0.39 -0.96
21 Los Angeles Lakers 1.03 2.09 -1.05
22 Milwaukee Bucks 1.61 2.97 -1.36
23 Miami Heat -1.26 0.98 -2.24
24 Chicago Bulls -13.48 -6.87 -6.62
25 Cleveland Cavaliers 1.77 8.66 -6.89
26 Brooklyn Nets 4.70 13.10 -8.40
27 Dallas Mavericks -6.85 2.25 -9.09
28 Atlanta Hawks -4.34 5.16 -9.50
29 Phoenix Suns 2.21 12.19 -9.98
30 Sacramento Kings -11.34 -0.66 -10.67

November 2, 2017

NBA Ratings Nov 2

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:32 am

Here are updated NBA ratings

 

 

Team Offense Defense Rating
Golden State Warriors 18.48 8.78 9.69
Oklahoma City Thunder -0.24 -9.87 9.63
Toronto Raptors 5.14 -3.63 8.77
Los Angeles Clippers 3.15 -5.49 8.64
Portland Trail Blazers -0.05 -7.55 7.50
Orlando Magic 8.03 2.04 5.99
Detroit Pistons -2.57 -7.98 5.41
Boston Celtics -3.82 -9.20 5.38
Washington Wizards 4.76 1.01 3.75
Houston Rockets 1.61 -2.10 3.71
Utah Jazz -8.57 -12.24 3.66
Memphis Grizzlies -7.95 -11.13 3.18
Indiana Pacers 5.77 3.92 1.85
Charlotte Hornets 0.80 -0.94 1.74
San Antonio Spurs -7.02 -8.20 1.18
Denver Nuggets 2.53 1.66 0.87
Philadelphia 76ers 3.03 3.35 -0.32
Minnesota Timberwolves 8.67 9.20 -0.53
Los Angeles Lakers -0.54 0.91 -1.45
New Orleans Pelicans 1.00 2.46 -1.46
Milwaukee Bucks 2.70 4.39 -1.69
New York Knicks -2.13 0.13 -2.25
Miami Heat -1.36 3.79 -5.15
Brooklyn Nets 4.93 11.72 -6.79
Phoenix Suns 4.77 12.68 -7.90
Cleveland Cavaliers -2.28 6.73 -9.01
Dallas Mavericks -4.05 5.41 -9.46
Atlanta Hawks -7.14 3.72 -10.86
Sacramento Kings -13.68 -1.65 -12.03
Chicago Bulls -13.96 -1.89 -12.07

October 29, 2017

NBA Ratings Based on Median Performance Oct 28

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:39 am

Previous ratings were based on minimizing squared errors. The ratings below are based on “typical performance”. Note the huge difference in the Mavericks’ratings.

Team Offense Defense Rating
Los Angeles Clippers 6.06 -9.46 15.52
Memphis Grizzlies -4.55 -18.70 14.15
Golden State Warriors 17.05 5.42 11.63
Toronto Raptors 3.93 -5.70 9.63
Detroit Pistons 1.81 -5.68 7.49
Houston Rockets 5.06 -1.68 6.73
Washington Wizards 8.93 2.41 6.52
Boston Celtics -4.14 -9.47 5.33
Portland Trail Blazers 0.10 -4.84 4.94
Dallas Mavericks 0.85 -3.70 4.56
Milwaukee Bucks 2.81 -1.50 4.32
New Orleans Pelicans 8.97 6.28 2.69
Utah Jazz -9.17 -11.52 2.34
Orlando Magic 12.86 12.49 0.36
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.42 0.50 -0.07
Brooklyn Nets 5.86 6.49 -0.63
Charlotte Hornets -6.97 -5.46 -1.51
Sacramento Kings -5.94 -2.70 -3.23
Oklahoma City Thunder -4.13 -0.80 -3.33
Philadelphia 76ers 0.03 3.50 -3.47
Miami Heat -6.14 -2.50 -3.64
San Antonio Spurs -13.19 -9.50 -3.69
Denver Nuggets -4.06 0.54 -4.60
Indiana Pacers 7.86 12.48 -4.63
Los Angeles Lakers -5.86 -0.50 -5.37
Minnesota Timberwolves 5.87 14.54 -8.67
New York Knicks -4.32 6.23 -10.56
Atlanta Hawks -6.19 4.50 -10.69
Phoenix Suns 5.32 18.29 -12.97
Chicago Bulls -19.15 0.01 -19.16

NBA Ratings through October 28

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:30 am

Here are NBA ratings based on games through October 28. Of course, too early to use these for predicting, but they measure performance so far this year.

 

Team Offense Defense Rating
Los Angeles Clippers 3.73 -9.38 13.12
Portland Trail Blazers 0.07 -12.07 12.14
Toronto Raptors 6.41 -2.51 8.92
Orlando Magic 9.99 1.27 8.72
Golden State Warriors 15.92 7.62 8.30
Memphis Grizzlies -7.96 -13.68 5.73
Oklahoma City Thunder -1.52 -7.13 5.61
Detroit Pistons -0.66 -6.20 5.54
Boston Celtics -5.56 -10.18 4.62
New Orleans Pelicans 8.77 5.04 3.73
Houston Rockets 2.57 -0.70 3.26
San Antonio Spurs -7.03 -9.53 2.51
Washington Wizards 6.21 3.97 2.24
Indiana Pacers 8.71 8.10 0.61
Milwaukee Bucks 3.26 3.03 0.22
Utah Jazz -12.80 -12.07 -0.73
Brooklyn Nets 8.36 10.13 -1.77
Philadelphia 76ers 0.04 2.62 -2.58
Charlotte Hornets -5.89 -3.31 -2.59
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.43 3.04 -2.61
New York Knicks -4.29 -1.54 -2.75
Miami Heat -0.90 2.88 -3.78
Minnesota Timberwolves 8.11 12.26 -4.14
Los Angeles Lakers -3.43 2.01 -5.44
Denver Nuggets -3.13 2.49 -5.62
Sacramento Kings -11.52 -2.79 -8.73
Dallas Mavericks -3.00 6.09 -9.09
Atlanta Hawks -7.90 3.43 -11.34
Phoenix Suns 5.35 17.27 -11.92
Chicago Bulls -12.34 -0.16 -12.18

June 18, 2017

Preseason NFL Ratings based on Vegas Win Totals

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:09 am

Here are point ratings for NFL 2017 based on preseason Vegas over under win totals.

Team Wins Rating
Arizona Cardinals 8 -1.685646059
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 4.315627634
Baltimore Ravens 8.5 0.335351467
Buffalo Bills 6 -2.850167243
Carolina Panthers 8.5 1.204584493
Chicago Bears 5 -7.120442285
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 0.053939571
Cleveland Browns 4 -10.24262942
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 4.37778835
Denver Broncos 8.5 3.151662179
Detroit Lions 7.5 -1.051829235
Green Bay Packers 10 4.514152479
Houston Texans 8.5 0.049507599
Indianapolis Colts 9 0.28139264
Jacksonville Jaguars 6 -6.452739946
Kansas City Chiefs 9 4.416922048
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5 0.066526653
Los Angeles Rams 4.5 -9.464371997
Miami Dolphins 7 -0.732867184
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 0.362705257
New England Patriots 12.5 12.01272802
New Orleans Saints 8 0.302883681
New York Giants 9 2.871473845
New York Jets 5 -6.203280803
Oakland Raiders 10 6.227556607
Philadelphia Eagles 8 0.449261378
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 5.322069831
San Francisco 49ers 4.5 -9.789675454
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 4.119690529
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 1.968286855
Tennessee Titans 8.5 -0.557131013
Washington Redskins 7.5 -0.253330477

April 24, 2017

NHL Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:58 am

Here we see what % each team is better or worse than average on offense and defense.

So Caps are 1.15% better than average on offense and 17% better than average on defense. To use this data to predict score of game take 2.75*1.05*Home offense*Road defense for Home team goals and 2.75*(1/1.05)*Home defense*Away offense for away team goals.

 

Team Offense Defense Product
Washington   Capitals 1.15 0.83 1.39
Pittsburgh Penguins 1.28 1.04 1.23
Minnesota Wild 1.13 0.94 1.20
Columbus Blue Jackets 1.06 0.90 1.18
New York Rangers 1.10 0.94 1.16
Edmonton Oilers 1.09 0.95 1.15
Nashville Predators 1.07 0.93 1.15
Anaheim Ducks 1.01 0.89 1.14
St. Louis Blues 1.01 0.91 1.11
Montreal Canadiens 0.96 0.87 1.10
Boston Bruins 1.04 0.96 1.09
Chicago Blackhawks 1.03 0.95 1.09
San Jose Sharks 0.97 0.90 1.08
Toronto Maple Leafs 1.12 1.05 1.07
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.05 0.99 1.06
New York Islanders 1.08 1.05 1.03
Calgary Flames 1.01 0.99 1.02
Ottawa Senators 0.93 0.92 1.01
Los Angeles Kings 0.89 0.90 0.98
Winnipeg Jets 1.13 1.15 0.98
Philadelphia Flyers 0.97 1.00 0.97
Carolina Hurricanes 0.94 1.04 0.91
Florida Panthers 0.94 1.05 0.89
Buffalo Sabres 0.90 1.05 0.86
Detroit Red Wings 0.93 1.09 0.86
Dallas Stars 0.99 1.17 0.85
Arizona Coyotes 0.88 1.15 0.77
New Jersey Devils 0.81 1.08 0.75
Vancouver Canucks 0.80 1.08 0.74
Colorado Avalanche 0.74 1.23 0.6

April 13, 2017

NBA FInal Regular Season Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:59 am

More weight is given here to more recent games.

Rank Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
1 Golden State Warriors 9.74 -1.55 11.29 2 10
2 San Antonio Spurs -0.67 -7.66 6.99 15 2
3 Houston Rockets 10.07 4.36 5.72 1 26
4 Los Angeles Clippers 3.23 -1.14 4.36 6 12
5 Utah Jazz -4.98 -9.01 4.04 28 1
6 Toronto Raptors 0.58 -2.83 3.41 11 7
7 Cleveland Cavaliers 4.87 2.40 2.47 4 22
8 Boston Celtics 2.33 0.07 2.26 9 16
9 Washington Wizards 3.96 2.43 1.52 5 23
10 Miami Heat -2.25 -3.44 1.19 20 5
11 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.01 -0.17 1.18 10 15
12 Denver Nuggets 6.61 5.58 1.04 3 27
13 Memphis Grizzlies -5.03 -5.97 0.94 29 3
14 Portland Trail Blazers 2.40 2.26 0.14 8 20
15 Chicago Bulls -3.00 -3.12 0.12 25 6
16 Charlotte Hornets -1.03 -0.75 -0.29 17 13
17 Indiana Pacers -0.66 -0.27 -0.38 14 14
18 Milwaukee Bucks -2.45 -1.85 -0.60 21 9
19 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.29 0.90 -0.61 13 19
20 Atlanta Hawks -2.78 -1.49 -1.29 24 11
21 New Orleans Pelicans -1.05 0.39 -1.45 18 17
22 Detroit Pistons -4.30 -2.74 -1.56 27 8
23 Dallas Mavericks -7.72 -5.22 -2.50 30 4
24 Sacramento Kings -2.78 0.67 -3.45 23 18
25 New York Knicks -1.61 2.38 -3.99 19 21
26 Phoenix Suns 2.44 7.56 -5.13 7 30
27 Philadelphia 76ers -2.77 2.96 -5.73 22 25
28 Los Angeles Lakers -0.77 5.65 -6.42 16 28
29 Brooklyn Nets 0.38 6.86 -6.49 12 29
30 Orlando Magic -4.07 2.72 -6.79 26 24

April 4, 2017

NBA Ratings April 4

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:11 am

Again more weight is given to more recent games.

Rank Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
1 Golden State Warriors 9.87 -1.62 11.49 2 9
2 San Antonio Spurs 0.01 -7.72 7.73 14 2
3 Houston Rockets 10.17 3.70 6.47 1 26
4 Utah Jazz -5.34 -9.05 3.71 29 1
5 Toronto Raptors 1.09 -2.44 3.53 11 7
6 Los Angeles Clippers 2.82 -0.56 3.39 6 13
7 Cleveland Cavaliers 4.65 2.08 2.57 4 21
8 Boston Celtics 2.12 -0.33 2.45 8 14
9 Washington Wizards 4.01 2.37 1.64 5 22
10 Memphis Grizzlies -4.78 -6.05 1.27 28 3
11 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.50 0.29 1.21 10 17
12 Miami Heat -2.67 -3.44 0.77 21 5
13 Charlotte Hornets -0.41 -1.04 0.63 15 12
14 Denver Nuggets 6.39 5.91 0.48 3 27
15 Milwaukee Bucks -1.23 -1.30 0.07 18 11
16 Portland Trail Blazers 2.77 2.84 -0.07 7 25
17 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.13 0.49 -0.35 13 18
18 Chicago Bulls -2.96 -2.15 -0.81 23 8
19 New Orleans Pelicans -1.03 -0.18 -0.85 17 15
20 Indiana Pacers -1.30 0.11 -1.41 19 16
21 Dallas Mavericks -7.66 -5.80 -1.87 30 4
22 Detroit Pistons -4.71 -2.83 -1.89 27 6
23 Atlanta Hawks -3.36 -1.40 -1.97 25 10
24 Sacramento Kings -3.13 0.61 -3.74 24 19
25 New York Knicks -1.42 2.60 -4.01 20 24
26 Philadelphia 76ers -2.75 2.42 -5.17 22 23
27 Phoenix Suns 1.84 7.40 -5.56 9 30
28 Orlando Magic -4.24 1.88 -6.12 26 20
29 Brooklyn Nets 0.29 6.60 -6.31 12 29
30 Los Angeles Lakers -0.69 6.60 -7.30 16 28
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