March 19, 2014

NCAA Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:52 am

Here are game by game picks

NCAA 2014

 

East

Round 1

Florida beats Albany

Pitt over Colorado

VCU over SFA

UCLA over Tulsa

Ohio State over Dayton

Syracuse over Western Michigan

New Mexico over Stanford (close)

Kansas over Eastern Kentucky

Round 2

Florida over Pitt (close)

UCLA over VCU

Ohio State over Syracuse

Kansas over New Mexico

Round 3

Florida over UCLA

Kansas over Ohio State

Round 4

Florida over Kansas


 

South

Round 1

Virginia over Coastal Caroline

Memphis over George Washington (close)

Cincinnati over Harvard

Michigan State over Delaware

North Carolina over Providence

Iowa State over NC Central

UCONN over St. Joe’s

Villanova over Milwaukee

Round 2

Virginia over Memphis

Michigan State over Cincinnati

Iowa State over North Carolina

Villanova over UCONN

Round 3

Michigan State over Virginia

Villanova over Iowa State

Round 4

Michigan State over Villanova

 

 

 

West

Round 1

Arizona over Weber State

Ok. State over Gonzaga

Oklahoma over North Dakota

San Diego over New Mexico State

Baylor over Nebraska

Creighton over Louisiana Lafayette

Oregon over  BYU

Wisconsin over American

Round 2

Arizona over Ok. State

San Diego over Oklahoma

Creighton over Baylor

Wisconsin over Oregon

Round 3

Arizona over San Diego

Wisconsin over Creighton

Round 4

Arizona over Wisconsin

 

 

 

Midwest

Round 1

Wichita over Cal Poly

Kentucky over Kansas State

St. Louis over NC State

Louisville over Manhattan

Iowa/Tennessee winner (probably Iowa) over UMASS

Duke over Mercer

ASU over Texas

Michigan over Wofford

Round 2

Wichita over Kentucky

Louisville over St. Louis

Duke over Iowa/Tennessee

Michigan over ASU

Round 3

Louisville over Wichita

Duke over Michigan

Round 4

Louisville over Duke

Final 4

Florida over Michigan State

Arizona over Louisville

Champion Arizona

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 16, 2014

NCAA Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:47 pm

Based on my friend and colleague’s Sagarin ratings, here are my odds on teams winning each region, semis and championship. I only listed teams with at least a 1% chance. I also believe the regions are of relatively equal strength, despite what some commentators said.

South  Region

Team Chance
Florida 27.60%
Kansas 22.50%
UCLA 11.80%
Ohio state 9.90%
Syracuse 8.40%
Pitt 6.60%
VCU 6.30%
New Mexico 2.70%
Stanford 2.10%

 

 

 

East Region

Team Chance
Vill 25.20%
Virginia 23.10%
Mich St. 18.70%
Iowa St 14.60%
UCONN 5.00%
Cinn 3.90%
UNC 2.70%
Providence 2.40%
Harvard 1.50%
Memphis 1.30%

Midwest Region

Team Chance
Louisville 36.30%
Duke 17.10%
Michigan 15.20%
Wichita 12.80%
UK 4.90%
Iowa 3.00%
Tenn 2.70%
ASU 2.20%
St. Louis 1.30%
Kans. St 1.20%
Texas 1.20%

 

West Region

Team Chance
Arizona 42.10%
Creighton 15.20%
Wisc 15.10%
San Diego St 6.20%
Ok St. 5.20%
Oklahoma 4.30%
Baylor 3.90%
Oregon 3.70%
Gonzaga 2.60%

 

Semifinal 1

Team Chance
Vill 14.50%
Florida 14.10%
Virginia 13.00%
Kansas 12.20%
Mich St. 9.40%
Iowa St 7.20%
UCLA 5.40%
Ohio state 5.00%
Syracuse 4.80%
Pitt 3.20%
VCU 2.70%
UCONN 1.70%
UNC 1.30%
Cinn 1.10%

 

Semifinal 2

Team Chance
Arizona 23.60%
Louisville 20.60%
Duke 8.50%
Wisc 8.10%
Michigan 7.10%
Creighton 6.80%
Wichita 5.60%
UK 3.20%
San Diego St 3.10%
Ok St. 2.40%
Baylor 1.90%
Oklahoma 1.70%
Gonzaga 1.50%
Iowa 1.30%

 

 

Championship

Team Chance
Arizona 18.10%
Louisville 10.90%
Florida 7.70%
Virginia 7.30%
Kansas 6.80%
Vill 6.50%
Mich St. 5.10%
Duke 3.90%
Iowa St 3.70%
Michigan 3.60%
Wisc 3.20%
Wichita 2.90%
Creighton 2.50%
Ohio state 2.30%
UK 1.50%
Syracuse 1.40%
Ok St. 1.40%
UCLA 1.30%
San Diego St 1.20%

 

 

March 15, 2014

March 15 NBA ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:23 am
Rank Team offense defense rating
1 Los Angeles Clippers 7.13 -0.47 7.60
2 San Antonio Spurs 4.12 -3.28 7.40
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.01 -1.97 6.98
4 Indiana Pacers -2.64 -8.13 5.48
5 Golden State Warriors 2.61 -2.57 5.19
6 Portland Trail Blazers 6.43 1.34 5.09
7 Houston Rockets 5.58 0.63 4.95
8 Miami Heat 3.33 -1.49 4.82
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 5.11 1.17 3.94
10 Toronto Raptors -0.18 -3.32 3.14
11 Phoenix Suns 4.37 1.87 2.50
12 Dallas Mavericks 3.58 1.21 2.37
13 Memphis Grizzlies -5.22 -6.71 1.49
14 Chicago Bulls -7.51 -8.34 0.82
15 Washington Wizards -0.39 -0.41 0.02
16 Atlanta Hawks 1.46 2.39 -0.93
17 Brooklyn Nets -2.93 -1.40 -1.53
18 Charlotte Bobcats -4.82 -3.28 -1.54
19 Sacramento Kings 0.48 2.26 -1.77
20 Denver Nuggets 2.90 4.70 -1.81
21 New Orleans Pelicans -1.32 0.70 -2.02
22 New York Knicks -2.13 0.05 -2.18
23 Detroit Pistons -0.03 3.60 -3.63
24 Boston Celtics -5.79 -1.27 -4.52
25 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.40 1.40 -4.80
26 Utah Jazz -6.25 -1.04 -5.21
27 Los Angeles Lakers 1.43 7.04 -5.61
28 Orlando Magic -3.81 1.98 -5.79
29 Milwaukee Bucks -6.00 2.69 -8.69
30 Philadelphia 76ers -1.13 10.64 -11.77

March 8, 2014

NBA RAtings March 8

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:58 am

Clippers maintain #1 with Pacers in free fall to #4

Rank Team offense defense rating
1 Los Angeles Clippers 7.35 -0.35 7.70
2 San Antonio Spurs 3.83 -3.22 7.05
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.90 -2.06 6.96
4 Indiana Pacers -2.33 -8.11 5.78
5 Golden State Warriors 2.82 -2.59 5.41
6 Houston Rockets 5.76 0.36 5.40
7 Portland Trail Blazers 6.54 1.17 5.38
8 Miami Heat 3.84 -1.46 5.29
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 5.31 0.86 4.45
10 Toronto Raptors -0.26 -3.09 2.83
11 Phoenix Suns 4.71 1.94 2.77
12 Dallas Mavericks 3.72 1.28 2.44
13 Memphis Grizzlies -5.41 -6.61 1.19
14 Chicago Bulls -7.81 -8.11 0.31
15 Washington Wizards -0.27 -0.50 0.24
16 Atlanta Hawks 1.29 2.33 -1.03
17 Sacramento Kings 0.91 2.47 -1.56
18 Charlotte Bobcats -4.98 -3.10 -1.88
19 New Orleans Pelicans -1.22 0.72 -1.94
20 Brooklyn Nets -2.98 -0.98 -2.01
21 Denver Nuggets 2.50 4.52 -2.02
22 New York Knicks -2.69 0.06 -2.75
23 Detroit Pistons 0.09 3.74 -3.65
24 Boston Celtics -5.56 -1.35 -4.22
25 Utah Jazz -6.27 -1.00 -5.27
26 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.62 1.68 -5.29
27 Los Angeles Lakers 1.46 6.76 -5.30
28 Orlando Magic -4.25 1.42 -5.67
29 Milwaukee Bucks -6.35 2.64 -8.99
30 Philadelphia 76ers -1.03 10.58 -11.60

March 2, 2014

NBA Ratings March 3

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:02 am

The Clippers surge to Number 1!

Rank Team offense defense rating
1 Los Angeles Clippers 7.12 0.15 6.97
2 Indiana Pacers -1.78 -8.67 6.90
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.45 -2.33 6.78
4 San Antonio Spurs 3.47 -3.04 6.50
5 Miami Heat 3.83 -1.71 5.54
6 Portland Trail Blazers 7.21 1.78 5.44
7 Golden State Warriors 2.76 -2.33 5.09
8 Houston Rockets 5.80 0.90 4.90
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 5.07 0.28 4.79
10 Phoenix Suns 4.35 1.63 2.72
11 Toronto Raptors -0.05 -2.75 2.70
12 Dallas Mavericks 3.80 1.39 2.41
13 Memphis Grizzlies -5.55 -6.51 0.96
14 Chicago Bulls -7.67 -8.04 0.37
15 Washington Wizards -0.34 -0.66 0.31
16 Atlanta Hawks 1.55 2.20 -0.65
17 Sacramento Kings 1.18 2.88 -1.70
18 New Orleans Pelicans -1.48 0.50 -1.98
19 Denver Nuggets 1.72 3.85 -2.13
20 Charlotte Bobcats -5.59 -3.42 -2.18
21 Brooklyn Nets -2.87 -0.60 -2.27
22 New York Knicks -2.82 0.31 -3.13
23 Detroit Pistons 0.35 3.93 -3.58
24 Boston Celtics -5.22 -1.14 -4.08
25 Utah Jazz -5.82 -1.22 -4.61
26 Los Angeles Lakers 0.97 5.74 -4.77
27 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.54 1.47 -5.01
28 Orlando Magic -3.66 1.94 -5.60
29 Milwaukee Bucks -6.79 2.52 -9.31
30 Philadelphia 76ers -0.47 10.91 -11.38

 

 

February 22, 2014

Feb 22 NBA ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:16 am

Here they are. Only 1 point separates top 4 teams. Spurs are amazing without their regulars. Phoenix must be doing it with mirrors.

Rank Team offense defense rating
1 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.25 -3.16 7.41
2 Indiana Pacers -2.11 -9.26 7.15
3 San Antonio Spurs 3.71 -2.88 6.59
4 Los Angeles Clippers 6.88 0.61 6.27
5 Golden State Warriors 3.01 -2.20 5.20
6 Miami Heat 4.08 -1.11 5.19
7 Portland Trail Blazers 7.65 2.80 4.86
8 Houston Rockets 5.63 1.08 4.56
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 5.05 0.60 4.45
10 Phoenix Suns 4.68 1.27 3.41
11 Toronto Raptors -0.38 -3.12 2.75
12 Dallas Mavericks 3.86 1.56 2.31
13 Memphis Grizzlies -5.88 -6.87 0.99
14 Washington Wizards -1.02 -0.83 -0.19
15 Chicago Bulls -7.82 -7.52 -0.29
16 Atlanta Hawks 1.53 1.93 -0.40
17 New Orleans Pelicans -0.88 0.39 -1.27
18 Denver Nuggets 2.81 4.20 -1.39
19 Sacramento Kings 1.05 2.46 -1.41
20 Charlotte Bobcats -5.23 -2.96 -2.26
21 Brooklyn Nets -2.60 -0.19 -2.41
22 New York Knicks -2.63 -0.10 -2.54
23 Detroit Pistons 0.23 3.80 -3.56
24 Boston Celtics -5.56 -1.39 -4.17
25 Los Angeles Lakers 0.53 5.21 -4.68
26 Utah Jazz -5.97 -1.24 -4.73
27 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.53 1.94 -5.48
28 Orlando Magic -3.52 2.16 -5.68
29 Milwaukee Bucks -7.62 2.30 -9.92
30 Philadelphia 76ers -0.21 10.53 -10.74

February 15, 2014

All star break NBA ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 12:20 am

Philly tanks to #30!

Rank Team offense defense rating
1 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.79 -3.15 7.93
2 Indiana Pacers -2.05 -9.42 7.36
3 San Antonio Spurs 3.84 -2.87 6.71
4 Los Angeles Clippers 7.05 0.41 6.64
5 Golden State Warriors 3.21 -1.94 5.14
6 Portland Trail Blazers 7.77 2.75 5.02
7 Miami Heat 3.89 -0.57 4.46
8 Minnesota Timberwolves 5.02 0.73 4.29
9 Houston Rockets 5.33 1.10 4.23
10 Phoenix Suns 4.73 1.69 3.03
11 Toronto Raptors -0.25 -3.03 2.78
12 Dallas Mavericks 3.69 1.23 2.46
13 Memphis Grizzlies -5.94 -6.86 0.92
14 Atlanta Hawks 1.54 1.44 0.09
15 Washington Wizards -1.12 -0.75 -0.37
16 Chicago Bulls -8.25 -7.31 -0.94
17 Denver Nuggets 2.99 3.94 -0.95
18 New Orleans Pelicans -0.45 0.58 -1.04
19 Sacramento Kings 1.29 2.60 -1.31
20 Brooklyn Nets -2.70 -0.18 -2.52
21 New York Knicks -3.10 -0.46 -2.64
22 Charlotte Bobcats -5.52 -2.69 -2.83
23 Detroit Pistons 0.11 3.33 -3.22
24 Boston Celtics -5.31 -1.19 -4.13
25 Los Angeles Lakers 0.48 4.93 -4.46
26 Utah Jazz -5.96 -1.28 -4.68
27 Orlando Magic -3.99 1.64 -5.63
28 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.57 2.59 -6.16
29 Milwaukee Bucks -7.54 2.43 -9.97
30 Philadelphia 76ers 0.02 10.27 -10.25

February 8, 2014

NBA Ratings Feb 8

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:38 am

Rank

Team

offense

defense

rating

1

Oklahoma City Thunder

4.78

-3.28

8.06

2

Indiana Pacers

-1.81

-9.07

7.26

3

San Antonio Spurs

3.67

-3.33

7.00

4

Los Angeles Clippers

6.67

0.50

6.17

5

Golden State Warriors

2.70

-2.32

5.01

6

Portland Trail Blazers

7.53

2.61

4.92

7

Minnesota Timberwolves

5.16

0.60

4.55

8

Miami Heat

3.82

-0.57

4.39

9

Houston Rockets

5.14

1.05

4.09

10

Phoenix Suns

4.44

1.45

2.99

11

Dallas Mavericks

4.02

1.46

2.56

12

Toronto Raptors

-0.51

-2.98

2.48

13

Memphis Grizzlies

-5.14

-6.26

1.12

14

Atlanta Hawks

2.30

1.54

0.76

15

Denver Nuggets

3.28

2.95

0.33

16

Washington Wizards

-1.26

-0.59

-0.67

17

New Orleans Pelicans

-0.36

0.39

-0.75

18

Sacramento Kings

1.41

2.51

-1.10

19

Chicago Bulls

-8.38

-6.76

-1.62

20

New York Knicks

-3.36

-0.81

-2.55

21

Brooklyn Nets

-2.59

0.19

-2.78

22

Charlotte Bobcats

-6.03

-2.82

-3.21

23

Detroit Pistons

-0.37

3.32

-3.69

24

Los Angeles Lakers

0.92

4.97

-4.04

25

Boston Celtics

-5.38

-1.22

-4.16

26

Utah Jazz

-5.91

-0.70

-5.21

27

Orlando Magic

-4.01

1.79

-5.81

28

Cleveland Cavaliers

-3.73

3.07

-6.80

29

Philadelphia 76ers

0.61

10.01

-9.40

30

Milwaukee Bucks

-7.61

2.32

-9.93

February 3, 2014

How Many Miles does Each NBA team travel during the season?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 12:15 pm

I am excited to be teaching a Sports and Math class at the Bauer College of Business at the University of Houston. I have developed many cool spreadsheets for the class. One of them computes the total distance each team travels during the season. The results are shown below. It might surprise you that Minnesota travels the most miles. The reason probably is that Minnesota is  one of the more eastern (and certainly more northern!) teams in the Western Conference  so none of their Western Conference road games are very close. Golden State and Portland travel the 2nd and 3rd most miles, while the Cavs travel the least. At least Cleveland leads in something!

 

Team Distance Rank
Atlanta Hawks 45052.2 11
Boston Celtics 45431.87 8
Brooklyn Nets 39421.44 25
Charlotte Bobcats 40745.3 21
Chicago Bulls 39108.15 26
Cleveland Cavaliers 37798.78 30
Dallas Mavericks 40183.59 24
Denver Nuggets 43327.77 17
Detroit Pistons 40289.5 23
Golden State Warriors 50972.03 2
Houston Rockets 45290.23 9
Indiana Pacers 38780.76 29
Los Angeles Clippers 43359.53 16
Los Angeles Lakers 49590.15 5
Memphis Grizzlies 45128 10
Miami Heat 43474.76 15
Milwaukee Bucks 42305.02 19
Minnesota Timberwolves 53690.74 1
New Orleans Pelicans 41854.55 20
New York Knicks 42499.81 18
Oklahoma City Thunder 46324.89 7
Orlando Magic 43560.7 14
Philadelphia 76ers 38952.76 28
Phoenix Suns 50295.17 4
Portland Trail Blazers 50655.88 3
Sacramento Kings 44459.92 13
San Antonio Spurs 48876.06 6
Toronto Raptors 40346.38 22
Utah Jazz 44497.62 12
Washington Wizards 39030.74 27

February 1, 2014

NBA Ratings Feb 1

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:53 am

The Thunder are pulling away!

Rank Team offense defense rating
1 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.67 -3.13 8.80
2 San Antonio Spurs 3.78 -3.86 7.64
3 Indiana Pacers -1.79 -9.20 7.41
4 Los Angeles Clippers 6.26 0.00 6.27
5 Golden State Warriors 3.20 -2.33 5.52
6 Portland Trail Blazers 7.80 2.49 5.32
7 Minnesota Timberwolves 5.47 0.41 5.06
8 Miami Heat 3.56 -0.41 3.97
9 Houston Rockets 4.90 1.00 3.91
10 Phoenix Suns 4.49 0.89 3.60
11 Toronto Raptors -0.63 -3.12 2.49
12 Dallas Mavericks 3.50 1.56 1.94
13 Memphis Grizzlies -4.80 -6.39 1.60
14 Denver Nuggets 3.24 2.24 1.01
15 Atlanta Hawks 2.16 1.62 0.54
16 New Orleans Pelicans -0.04 0.98 -1.01
17 Washington Wizards -1.81 -0.68 -1.13
18 Chicago Bulls -7.73 -6.48 -1.25
19 Sacramento Kings 1.53 3.25 -1.72
20 New York Knicks -3.30 -0.47 -2.83
21 Brooklyn Nets -2.79 0.36 -3.15
22 Charlotte Bobcats -6.08 -2.26 -3.82
23 Detroit Pistons -0.57 3.53 -4.10
24 Boston Celtics -5.54 -1.02 -4.52
25 Los Angeles Lakers 0.57 5.10 -4.53
26 Utah Jazz -5.15 -0.52 -4.63
27 Orlando Magic -4.22 2.09 -6.31
28 Cleveland Cavaliers -4.47 2.26 -6.73
29 Philadelphia 76ers 0.78 9.82 -9.04
30 Milwaukee Bucks -8.00 2.30 -10.30
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