October 11, 2016

NFL Ratings October 11, 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:11 pm

These ratings are not predictive, but measure season to date performance.

 

Rank Team Offense Defense Total Off Rank Def Rank
1 Philadelphia Eagles 4.56 -10.36 14.92 4 1
2 Minnesota Vikings 1.93 -8.71 10.65 13 2
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 5.89 -3.38 9.27 2 9
4 Atlanta Falcons 10.94 3.69 7.25 1 23
5 Denver Broncos -0.73 -6.94 6.21 17 5
6 Buffalo Bills 2.79 -2.62 5.41 10 10
7 New England Patriots -2.16 -7.20 5.05 20 3
8 Green Bay Packers 3.41 -1.19 4.61 8 14
9 Dallas Cowboys 1.97 -2.18 4.15 12 11
10 Arizona Cardinals 2.06 -0.62 2.68 11 16
11 Oakland Raiders 5.11 3.05 2.06 3 21
12 Detroit Lions 2.93 1.64 1.29 9 19
13 Seattle Seahawks -6.96 -7.03 0.07 31 4
14 New York Giants -3.93 -3.86 -0.07 27 7
15 San Diego Chargers 4.02 4.43 -0.40 6 25
16 Tennessee Titans -4.30 -3.72 -0.58 28 8
17 Carolina Panthers 1.93 2.66 -0.73 14 20
18 Washington Redskins 1.54 3.10 -1.56 15 22
19 Baltimore Ravens -7.32 -5.54 -1.78 32 6
20 New Orleans Saints 4.06 5.85 -1.79 5 29
21 Cincinnati Bengals -3.48 -1.67 -1.81 24 12
22 Kansas City Chiefs -3.75 -1.33 -2.43 26 13
23 Houston Texans -2.31 1.09 -3.40 21 18
24 Indianapolis Colts 3.71 7.71 -4.00 7 31
25 Chicago Bears -4.93 0.16 -5.09 29 17
26 Los Angeles Rams -6.10 -0.80 -5.29 30 15
27 San Francisco 49ers 0.92 7.06 -6.14 16 30
28 New York Jets -0.75 5.43 -6.18 18 28
29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.15 3.91 -7.06 23 24
30 Miami Dolphins -2.41 4.68 -7.09 22 26
31 Jacksonville Jaguars -3.61 4.83 -8.44 25 27
32 Cleveland Browns -1.89 7.88 -9.77 19 32

October 4, 2016

NFL Rankings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:51 am

These are not meant to be predictive, but reflect how well teams have played to date. So amazing Eagles have played 6.98 ppg better than average on offense and 14.34 ppg better than average on defense.

 

Rank Team Offense Defense Overall Offense Rank Defense Rank
1 Philadelphia Eagles 6.98 -14.34 21.31 3 1
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 8.22 -3.31 11.54 2 9
3 Denver Broncos 1.71 -7.57 9.28 13 4
4 Minnesota Vikings -0.85 -9.92 9.07 19 2
5 Atlanta Falcons 10.18 5.98 4.20 1 28
6 Buffalo Bills -0.88 -5.06 4.18 20 7
7 Dallas Cowboys 0.19 -2.61 2.80 15 12
8 Cincinnati Bengals -2.64 -5.07 2.42 21 6
9 Seattle Seahawks -5.84 -8.27 2.42 30 3
10 Green Bay Packers 3.34 0.92 2.42 5 17
11 Carolina Panthers 5.85 3.57 2.28 4 22
12 New England Patriots -3.25 -5.45 2.21 24 5
13 Oakland Raiders 3.26 1.77 1.49 6 19
14 Baltimore Ravens -2.93 -3.87 0.94 23 8
15 Arizona Cardinals 0.79 1.95 -1.16 14 20
16 New York Giants -4.39 -2.75 -1.64 27 11
17 Miami Dolphins -0.29 1.70 -1.99 17 18
18 San Diego Chargers 3.10 5.10 -2.00 8 25
19 Kansas City Chiefs -4.47 -1.96 -2.51 28 13
20 Detroit Lions 0.10 2.81 -2.72 16 21
21 Washington Redskins 2.36 5.31 -2.95 11 26
22 New Orleans Saints 3.25 6.71 -3.46 7 29
23 San Francisco 49ers 2.38 5.97 -3.58 10 27
24 Cleveland Browns -0.71 3.60 -4.30 18 23
25 Chicago Bears -3.98 0.68 -4.65 25 15
26 Los Angeles Rams -8.09 -3.29 -4.80 32 10
27 Tennessee Titans -6.16 -1.31 -4.85 31 14
28 New York Jets 2.04 6.95 -4.91 12 30
29 Houston Texans -4.29 0.88 -5.17 26 16
30 Indianapolis Colts 3.08 8.58 -5.50 9 32
31 Jacksonville Jaguars -5.28 4.20 -9.48 29 24
32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.79 8.10 -10.88 22 31

May 11, 2016

Parker vs. Mills

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:14 pm

If Spurs want to survive they need to play Patty Mills more and Parker less. After adjusting for OKC players on court here is how Spurs have played (in ppg) for games 2-5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Duncan Green Leonard Parker Aldridge Mills Ginobili Diaw West Anderson
Mills and  other in 46 12m 36 24m 28 39m dnp 25 39m 14 66m 11 52m -1 38m 1 40m -18 20m
Mills out and other in 10 70m 2 103m 12 116m 8 126m 5 122m dnp 16 31m -2 20m 12 36m -180 2m
Mills in and other out 7 54m 1 42m -5 28m 14 66m -1 27m dnp 24 14m 35 28m 35 26m 28 46m
Mills out and other out 4 56m 31 23m -49 10m -742 0m 87 3m 7 126m 4 95m 9 105m 5 90m 11 123m

So for example Mills in with Green SAN plays 36 ppg better than average and with Mills out only 2 ppg better than average. Parker and Leonard in 12 ppg better than average.  Leonard in and Parker out 28 ppg better than average. Mills and Anderson in bty, has played poorly.

 

Duncan Green Leonard Parker Aldridge Mills Ginobili Diaw West Anderson
Parker and  other in 10 70m 3 103m 12 116m 8 126m 6 122m dnp 19 31m 3 20m 12 36m -149 2m
Parker out and other in 46 12m 32 24m 28 39m dnp 22 39m 14 66m 9 52m -4 38m 1 40m -23 20m
Parker in and other out 6 56m 31 23m -40 10m dnp 87 3m 8 126m 4 95m 9 105m 6 90m 11 123m
Parker out and other out 5 55m 1 42m -8 28m 13 66m -1 27m -742 0m 24 14m 35 28m 31 26m 28 46m

The Spurs and Parker vs. Mills

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:04 pm

In Games 2-5 of OKC series, Spurs are much better with Mills on the floor than Parker. After adjusting for strength of opposing players on floor we find the following. Note than when Mills is in and Aldridge, Green or Kawh or West is in Spurs are much better than when Mill is out..

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Duncan Green Leonard Parker Aldridge Mills Ginobili Diaw West Anderson
Mills and  other in 46 12m 36 24m 28 39m dnp 25 39m 14 66m 11 52m -1 38m 1 40m -18 20m
Mills out and other in 10 70m 2 103m 12 116m 8 126m 5 122m dnp 16 31m -2 20m 12 36m -180 2m
Mills in and other out 7 54m 1 42m -5 28m 14 66m -1 27m dnp 24 14m 35 28m 35 26m 28 46m
Mills out and other out 4 56m 31 23m -49 10m -742 0m 87 3m 7 126m 4 95m 9 105m 5 90m 11 123m

For Parker we have the following info. You can see that when Parker is out and Aldridge, Green or Kawhi is in Spurs are much better than when Parker is in.

 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Duncan Green Leonard Parker Aldridge Mills Ginobili Diaw West Anderson
Parker and  other in 10 70m 3 103m 12 116m 8 126m 6 122m dnp 19 31m 3 20m 12 36m -149 2m
Parker out and other in 46 12m 32 24m 28 39m dnp 22 39m 14 66m 9 52m -4 38m 1 40m -23 20m
Parker in and other out 6 56m 31 23m -40 10m dnp 87 3m 8 126m 4 95m 9 105m 6 90m 11 123m
Parker out and other out 5 55m 1 42m -8 28m 13 66m -1 27m -742 0m 24 14m 35 28m 31 26m 28 46m

 

 

 

April 14, 2016

FInal NBA Regular Season Ratings April 13 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:19 am

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

0.44

-10.02

10.45

10

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.88

2.55

10.34

1

20

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.45

0.24

7.21

2

16

4

Toronto Raptors

0.89

-3.50

4.39

9

4

5

Los Angeles Clippers

0.98

-3.32

4.29

8

6

6

Boston Celtics

3.97

-0.03

4.00

5

14

7

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-3.46

3.46

15

5

8

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-3.26

3.30

12

7

9

Portland Trail Blazers

2.88

1.39

1.49

6

19

10

Houston Rockets

4.64

3.22

1.42

3

24

11

Charlotte Hornets

0.04

-1.32

1.37

11

12

12

Utah Jazz

-6.48

-7.78

1.30

30

2

13

Detroit Pistons

-0.82

-1.78

0.96

19

9

14

Miami Heat

-2.71

-3.53

0.82

23

3

15

Indiana Pacers

-0.70

-1.49

0.79

18

11

16

Dallas Mavericks

0.00

-0.14

0.14

14

13

17

Orlando Magic

-0.49

0.00

-0.48

17

15

18

Washington Wizards

1.77

2.62

-0.85

7

21

19

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.71

-1.94

-1.77

25

8

20

Chicago Bulls

-1.45

0.42

-1.87

21

17

21

Sacramento Kings

4.29

6.63

-2.34

4

30

22

Denver Nuggets

0.00

2.62

-2.62

16

22

23

New York Knicks

-4.48

-1.68

-2.80

28

10

24

New Orleans Pelicans

0.00

3.54

-3.54

13

26

25

Minnesota Timberwolves

-0.88

3.60

-4.49

20

27

26

Milwaukee Bucks

-4.12

0.81

-4.92

27

18

27

Phoenix Suns

-2.04

4.02

-6.06

22

28

28

Brooklyn Nets

-3.03

3.33

-6.36

24

25

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.51

3.07

-8.58

29

23

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-3.82

5.22

-9.03

26

29

April 6, 2016

NBA Ratings April 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:42 am

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

1.39

-9.86

11.25

8

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.83

3.27

9.56

1

26

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.88

0.36

7.52

2

17

4

Toronto Raptors

1.00

-3.34

4.34

10

5

5

Boston Celtics

4.01

-0.03

4.04

5

13

6

Los Angeles Clippers

1.01

-2.98

4.00

9

7

7

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-3.80

3.80

16

3

8

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-3.22

3.26

13

6

9

Utah Jazz

-6.47

-8.14

1.67

30

2

10

Charlotte Hornets

0.04

-1.59

1.64

12

11

11

Detroit Pistons

-0.22

-1.71

1.49

17

9

12

Houston Rockets

4.37

3.21

1.16

4

25

13

Portland Trail Blazers

2.64

1.53

1.11

6

19

14

Miami Heat

-2.75

-3.35

0.60

23

4

15

Indiana Pacers

-1.04

-1.57

0.53

20

12

16

Dallas Mavericks

0.00

0.11

-0.11

15

15

17

Orlando Magic

-0.69

0.00

-0.68

18

14

18

Washington Wizards

1.43

2.69

-1.26

7

21

19

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.55

-2.17

-1.38

24

8

20

Chicago Bulls

-1.54

0.35

-1.89

21

16

21

Sacramento Kings

4.80

7.03

-2.23

3

30

22

Denver Nuggets

0.31

2.83

-2.51

11

23

23

New Orleans Pelicans

0.00

2.67

-2.67

14

20

24

New York Knicks

-4.39

-1.66

-2.74

28

10

25

Minnesota Timberwolves

-1.02

3.71

-4.74

19

27

26

Milwaukee Bucks

-4.10

0.89

-4.99

26

18

27

Brooklyn Nets

-3.69

2.71

-6.40

25

22

28

Phoenix Suns

-2.65

4.29

-6.94

22

28

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.48

3.13

-8.62

29

24

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.16

4.66

-8.82

27

29

March 27, 2016

NBA Ratings March 27 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:14 am
Rank Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
1 San Antonio Spurs 1.52 -9.86 11.38 7 1
2 Golden State Warriors 13.26 3.00 10.26 1 23
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 7.57 0.21 7.36 2 16
4 Toronto Raptors 0.95 -3.46 4.41 10 6
5 Boston Celtics 4.17 -0.04 4.21 4 13
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.00 -4.04 4.04 16 3
7 Atlanta Hawks 0.04 -3.88 3.92 14 4
8 Los Angeles Clippers 1.00 -2.46 3.46 9 7
9 Charlotte Hornets 0.06 -1.34 1.40 13 12
10 Detroit Pistons -0.11 -1.48 1.37 17 10
11 Indiana Pacers -0.65 -1.55 0.90 18 9
12 Utah Jazz -6.64 -7.46 0.82 30 2
13 Miami Heat -3.01 -3.81 0.81 23 5
14 Houston Rockets 4.33 3.59 0.74 3 26
15 Portland Trail Blazers 2.23 1.50 0.73 6 19
16 Dallas Mavericks 0.00 0.10 -0.10 15 15
17 Washington Wizards 1.44 2.64 -1.20 8 22
18 Memphis Grizzlies -3.65 -2.35 -1.30 25 8
19 Orlando Magic -1.65 0.00 -1.65 21 14
20 Denver Nuggets 0.59 2.53 -1.94 11 21
21 Chicago Bulls -1.43 0.65 -2.08 20 18
22 New York Knicks -4.00 -1.46 -2.54 26 11
23 Sacramento Kings 3.99 6.84 -2.84 5 30
24 New Orleans Pelicans 0.35 3.50 -3.15 12 25
25 Milwaukee Bucks -4.12 0.40 -4.52 27 17
26 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.11 3.98 -5.08 19 28
27 Brooklyn Nets -3.30 2.19 -5.49 24 20
28 Phoenix Suns -2.39 3.95 -6.34 22 27
29 Los Angeles Lakers -5.12 3.43 -8.56 29 24
30 Philadelphia 76ers -4.33 4.68 -9.01 28 29

March 26, 2016

Elite 8 Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:19 pm
Team 3 4 5 6
Kansas 44.52% 18.20% 13.98% 23.30%
UVA 19.74% 32.14% 24.90% 23.22%
UNC 25.10% 36.20% 21.48% 17.22%
VILL 55.48% 17.00% 10.72% 16.80%
ORE 44.52% 34.70% 10.42% 10.36%
OKLA 55.48% 30.10% 7.78% 6.64%
ND 74.90% 17.88% 5.82% 1.40%
SYR 80.26% 13.78% 4.90% 1.06%

March 21, 2016

Sweet 16 odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:07 pm

Here is chance of each team winning each number of games

Team 2 3 4 5 6
Kansas 26.36% 28.04% 14.02% 11.66% 19.92%
UNC 38.20% 13.32% 19.18% 13.30% 16.00%
UVA 30.96% 20.48% 20.16% 12.86% 15.54%
VILL 36.92% 31.92% 11.94% 8.40% 10.82%
OKLA 42.38% 25.46% 18.80% 6.66% 6.70%
IND 61.80% 12.00% 12.78% 7.42% 6.00%
GONZ 34.52% 39.88% 14.42% 6.58% 4.60%
DUKE 49.96% 26.90% 15.06% 4.70% 3.38%
A AND M 57.62% 20.96% 13.60% 4.46% 3.36%
MIA 63.08% 22.68% 7.02% 3.96% 3.26%
ORE 50.04% 26.68% 14.62% 5.40% 3.26%
ISU 69.04% 14.68% 9.72% 4.48% 2.08%
MD 73.64% 17.36% 4.94% 2.18% 1.88%
ND 50.00% 37.52% 8.42% 2.88% 1.18%
WISC 50.00% 37.16% 8.68% 3.00% 1.16%
SYR 65.48% 24.96% 6.64% 2.06% 0.86%

 

Here is chance each team wins >=N games

Team >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Kansas 73.64% 45.60% 31.58% 19.92%
UNC 61.80% 48.48% 29.30% 16.00%
UVA 69.04% 48.56% 28.40% 15.54%
VILL 63.08% 31.16% 19.22% 10.82%
OKLA 57.62% 32.16% 13.36% 6.70%
IND 38.20% 26.20% 13.42% 6.00%
GONZ 65.48% 25.60% 11.18% 4.60%
DUKE 50.04% 23.14% 8.08% 3.38%
A AND M 42.38% 21.42% 7.82% 3.36%
MIA 36.92% 14.24% 7.22% 3.26%
ORE 49.96% 23.28% 8.66% 3.26%
ISU 30.96% 16.28% 6.56% 2.08%
MD 26.36% 9.00% 4.06% 1.88%
ND 50.00% 12.48% 4.06% 1.18%
WISC 50.00% 12.84% 4.16% 1.16%
SYR 34.52% 9.56% 2.92% 0.86%

March 20, 2016

NBA Ratings March 27

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:53 am

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

1.46

-10.19

11.65

8

1

2

Golden State Warriors

13.08

3.15

9.93

1

23

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.13

0.65

6.49

2

16

4

Boston Celtics

4.40

-0.03

4.43

5

13

5

Toronto Raptors

0.88

-3.46

4.35

9

6

6

Los Angeles Clippers

1.57

-2.69

4.26

7

8

7

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-3.98

4.01

14

4

8

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-3.94

3.93

15

5

9

Detroit Pistons

-0.09

-1.84

1.75

16

9

10

Utah Jazz

-5.88

-7.23

1.35

30

2

11

Charlotte Hornets

0.05

-1.21

1.26

13

12

12

Indiana Pacers

-0.19

-1.35

1.16

17

10

13

Portland Trail Blazers

2.46

1.55

0.91

6

19

14

Miami Heat

-3.16

-4.00

0.85

23

3

15

Houston Rockets

4.46

3.76

0.70

4

26

16

Dallas Mavericks

-0.54

0.06

-0.60

18

15

17

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.81

-2.76

-1.05

25

7

18

Washington Wizards

0.84

2.16

-1.32

10

21

19

Denver Nuggets

0.62

1.97

-1.34

11

20

20

Orlando Magic

-1.94

0.00

-1.94

21

14

21

Chicago Bulls

-1.45

0.77

-2.22

20

18

22

Sacramento Kings

4.65

6.99

-2.35

3

30

23

New York Knicks

-3.89

-1.30

-2.59

26

11

24

New Orleans Pelicans

0.13

3.56

-3.43

12

25

25

Milwaukee Bucks

-3.62

0.72

-4.34

24

17

26

Minnesota Timberwolves

-1.16

4.16

-5.32

19

28

27

Phoenix Suns

-1.99

3.99

-5.98

22

27

28

Brooklyn Nets

-4.04

2.33

-6.36

27

22

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.39

3.16

-8.55

29

24

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.61

5.02

-9.64

28

29

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