June 29, 2018

Donovan Mitchell

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:56 pm

Some smart people think Donovan Mitchell  is below average. Adjusted for strength of opponent here is how Jazz played in various scenarios.  If this is a below average player,  I need to go back to middle school.

Gobert O’Neale Crowder Mitchell Burks Hood Ingles Rubio Favors
Mitchell and  other in 10 1795m 6 790m 7 779m 8 3049m 2 482m -1 468m 10 2256m 10 1711m 8 1740m
Mitchell out and other in 2 405m 0 619m -5 288m dnp -1 697m -4 616m -1 705m -2 724m -3 700m
Mitchell in and other out 4 1255m 8 2260m 8 2270m dnp 9 2567m 9 2581m 2 793m 5 1338m 7 1310m
Mitchell out and other out -4 1025m -4 811m -1 1142m -2 1430m -3 733m -1 814m -3 725m -2 706m -2 730m

 

 

May 26, 2018

How to Play without CP3

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:18 am

Here is what has worked for the Rockets without CP3.

Ariza         Gordon        Harden        Capela        Tucker

Anderson      Ariza         Gordon        Harden        Capela
Gordon        Harden        Mbah_a_Moute  Capela        Tucker
Gordon        Harden        Nene       Mbah_a_Moute  Tucker
Ariza         Gordon        Harden        Mbah_a_Moute  Capela
Ariza         Gordon        Harden        Nene       Tucker

Gordon out :Harden Tucker Anderson Moute and Nene, Capela  or Green

Harden out: Ariza  Gordon and Tucker with 2 of Capela, Moute,  Nene ,Anderson or Green

April 12, 2018

Final NBA regular season ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:24 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 3.07 -5.03 8.10
2 Philadelphia 76ers 4.80 -2.52 7.32
3 Toronto Raptors 4.72 -1.98 6.71
4 Utah Jazz -1.21 -7.45 6.24
5 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.24 -0.66 4.90
6 San Antonio Spurs -2.91 -6.50 3.59
7 Portland Trail Blazers 0.16 -3.37 3.53
8 Golden State Warriors 4.82 1.48 3.34
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.42 0.24 3.18
10 New Orleans Pelicans 5.73 2.60 3.13
11 Charlotte Hornets 4.80 2.79 2.01
12 Boston Celtics -3.50 -5.30 1.80
13 Denver Nuggets 4.46 2.99 1.46
14 Indiana Pacers -3.00 -4.39 1.39
15 Miami Heat -1.94 -3.13 1.18
16 Los Angeles Clippers 3.94 3.74 0.20
17 Cleveland Cavaliers 4.32 4.38 -0.06
18 Detroit Pistons -1.77 -1.69 -0.08
19 Los Angeles Lakers 1.86 2.43 -0.57
20 Washington Wizards 0.03 1.00 -0.96
21 Milwaukee Bucks 0.48 1.63 -1.15
22 Dallas Mavericks -3.65 -0.17 -3.48
23 Brooklyn Nets -0.17 3.74 -3.91
24 New York Knicks -1.91 2.72 -4.63
25 Sacramento Kings -7.54 -2.12 -5.42
26 Orlando Magic -5.79 -0.19 -5.60
27 Atlanta Hawks -3.70 2.30 -6.00
28 Memphis Grizzlies -6.72 1.14 -7.86
29 Chicago Bulls -2.98 5.24 -8.22
30 Phoenix Suns -4.05 6.09 -10.14

April 1, 2018

NBA Ratings April 1 2018

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:50 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 5.22 -4.88 10.10
2 Toronto Raptors 6.04 -0.66 6.70
3 Philadelphia 76ers 2.74 -3.06 5.80
4 Utah Jazz -2.19 -7.09 4.90
5 Golden State Warriors 4.50 0.33 4.17
6 San Antonio Spurs -3.58 -7.51 3.93
7 Portland Trail Blazers 0.84 -2.93 3.77
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.91 -0.83 3.74
9 Boston Celtics -2.80 -6.26 3.46
10 Minnesota Timberwolves 4.15 0.76 3.39
11 Los Angeles Clippers 5.07 2.25 2.82
12 Miami Heat -1.82 -3.74 1.91
13 Indiana Pacers -2.80 -4.49 1.69
14 New Orleans Pelicans 4.53 3.56 0.97
15 Charlotte Hornets 3.14 2.24 0.90
16 Denver Nuggets 4.82 4.24 0.58
17 Washington Wizards 0.92 0.50 0.41
18 Milwaukee Bucks 0.18 0.74 -0.56
19 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.86 4.46 -0.60
20 Los Angeles Lakers 2.47 3.07 -0.60
21 Detroit Pistons -3.12 -2.51 -0.62
22 Dallas Mavericks -3.36 -1.15 -2.22
23 New York Knicks -1.07 3.24 -4.31
24 Brooklyn Nets -0.46 4.05 -4.52
25 Orlando Magic -4.38 1.30 -5.68
26 Sacramento Kings -6.22 0.45 -6.67
27 Atlanta Hawks -3.85 2.85 -6.70
28 Chicago Bulls -2.65 4.73 -7.38
29 Memphis Grizzlies -8.58 -0.53 -8.05
30 Phoenix Suns -4.50 6.87 -11.37

March 28, 2018

NBA Ratings March 28

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:27 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 5.60 -4.98 10.58
2 Toronto Raptors 5.93 -0.96 6.89
3 Philadelphia 76ers 2.51 -2.80 5.31
4 Utah Jazz -2.11 -7.21 5.10
5 Portland Trail Blazers 0.90 -3.38 4.29
6 Golden State Warriors 4.65 0.48 4.17
7 San Antonio Spurs -3.63 -7.63 4.00
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.46 -0.92 3.39
9 Boston Celtics -3.09 -6.16 3.07
10 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.68 1.15 2.53
11 Los Angeles Clippers 4.97 2.64 2.34
12 Miami Heat -1.56 -3.83 2.27
13 Indiana Pacers -2.92 -4.82 1.90
14 Charlotte Hornets 3.42 2.32 1.10
15 Denver Nuggets 4.69 3.83 0.86
16 New Orleans Pelicans 4.45 3.75 0.70
17 Washington Wizards 1.01 0.52 0.49
18 Detroit Pistons -3.16 -2.81 -0.34
19 Milwaukee Bucks 0.05 0.46 -0.41
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 4.08 4.73 -0.64
21 Los Angeles Lakers 2.25 2.97 -0.72
22 Dallas Mavericks -2.95 -0.99 -1.96
23 New York Knicks -1.39 3.00 -4.39
24 Orlando Magic -3.33 1.23 -4.56
25 Brooklyn Nets -0.56 4.16 -4.72
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.58 2.39 -5.96
27 Sacramento Kings -6.27 0.33 -6.59
28 Memphis Grizzlies -9.15 -0.67 -8.47
29 Chicago Bulls -2.68 5.88 -8.56
30 Phoenix Suns -4.30 7.35 -11.65

March 24, 2018

NBA Ratings March 24

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:23 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 5.62 -4.38 9.99
2 Toronto Raptors 6.35 -1.33 7.68
3 Golden State Warriors 6.09 0.55 5.54
4 San Antonio Spurs -3.99 -8.62 4.62
5 Philadelphia 76ers 1.77 -2.82 4.60
6 Utah Jazz -2.46 -6.85 4.39
7 Portland Trail Blazers 0.78 -3.28 4.06
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.37 -1.22 3.59
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 4.11 0.53 3.58
10 Boston Celtics -2.98 -6.01 3.03
11 Miami Heat -1.49 -3.26 1.78
12 Los Angeles Clippers 4.84 3.12 1.72
13 Indiana Pacers -3.08 -4.21 1.13
14 Denver Nuggets 4.60 3.49 1.11
15 New Orleans Pelicans 5.01 3.92 1.10
16 Charlotte Hornets 2.68 1.82 0.86
17 Washington Wizards 0.89 0.36 0.53
18 Cleveland Cavaliers 4.66 5.05 -0.38
19 Milwaukee Bucks 0.05 0.60 -0.55
20 Los Angeles Lakers 2.29 2.88 -0.59
21 Detroit Pistons -3.69 -2.86 -0.83
22 Dallas Mavericks -2.79 -0.81 -1.98
23 Orlando Magic -3.22 1.24 -4.46
24 Brooklyn Nets -0.73 3.80 -4.53
25 New York Knicks -2.15 2.57 -4.72
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.81 2.15 -5.96
27 Sacramento Kings -6.14 0.10 -6.24
28 Chicago Bulls -2.27 5.64 -7.91
29 Memphis Grizzlies -9.09 0.10 -9.19
30 Phoenix Suns -4.21 7.73 -11.94

Elite 8 odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:42 am
Team 3 4 5 6 >=4 >=5 6
Villanova 26.66% 31.66% 8.58% 33.10% 73.34% 41.68% 33.10%
DUKE 37.82% 27.98% 8.22% 25.98% 62.18% 34.20% 25.98%
MICH 37.98% 17.68% 29.48% 14.86% 62.02% 44.34% 14.86%
KANSAS 62.18% 22.26% 4.86% 10.70% 37.82% 15.56% 10.70%
FSU 62.02% 13.74% 18.64% 5.60% 37.98% 24.24% 5.60%
TEX TECH 73.34% 18.10% 3.62% 4.94% 26.66% 8.56% 4.94%
K STATE 37.68% 39.76% 18.82% 3.74% 62.32% 22.56% 3.74%
LOYOLA 62.32% 28.82% 7.78% 1.08% 37.68% 8.86% 1.08%

March 20, 2018

NBA Ratings March 20

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:18 pm
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 5.93 -4.42 10.35
2 Toronto Raptors 6.68 -1.67 8.36
3 Golden State Warriors 6.67 0.97 5.70
4 Utah Jazz -3.57 -8.51 4.93
5 San Antonio Spurs -4.66 -9.29 4.63
6 Portland Trail Blazers 0.72 -3.63 4.35
7 Philadelphia 76ers 1.07 -2.96 4.03
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.68 -0.93 3.61
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 4.11 0.74 3.38
10 Boston Celtics -3.13 -5.80 2.66
11 Los Angeles Clippers 4.47 2.53 1.94
12 Miami Heat -1.67 -2.94 1.27
13 Indiana Pacers -2.46 -3.56 1.09
14 New Orleans Pelicans 5.17 4.19 0.98
15 Washington Wizards 1.65 0.80 0.85
16 Denver Nuggets 4.28 4.35 -0.07
17 Milwaukee Bucks -0.59 -0.04 -0.55
18 Los Angeles Lakers 1.75 2.43 -0.69
19 Charlotte Hornets 1.69 2.66 -0.97
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.99 5.05 -1.06
21 Dallas Mavericks -3.14 -1.55 -1.58
22 Detroit Pistons -3.77 -1.89 -1.88
23 Orlando Magic -2.32 1.81 -4.14
24 New York Knicks -1.84 2.51 -4.35
25 Brooklyn Nets -0.85 4.03 -4.89
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.19 3.15 -6.34
27 Chicago Bulls -1.89 4.75 -6.64
28 Sacramento Kings -6.02 0.66 -6.67
29 Memphis Grizzlies -8.68 -1.17 -7.51
30 Phoenix Suns -3.06 7.74 -10.81

March 19, 2018

Sweet 16 odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:48 am

What a weekend!. Unfortunately Duke is now the favorite to win it all. Dook has a 22.84% chance to win and 55% chance to make Final 4

Team 2 3 4 5 6
DUKE 14.88% 29.98% 24.30% 8.00% 22.84%
Villanova 32.74% 19.12% 19.34% 6.86% 21.94%
KANSAS 30.80% 36.70% 16.56% 5.88% 10.06%
ZAGS 34.86% 29.18% 12.18% 14.70% 9.08%
MICH 37.56% 28.18% 12.00% 14.00% 8.26%
UK 38.94% 21.04% 21.54% 12.66% 5.82%
WVA 67.26% 14.72% 9.74% 3.22% 5.06%
PURDUE 45.06% 35.22% 11.66% 3.50% 4.56%
TEX TECH 54.94% 30.94% 9.24% 2.14% 2.74%
TEX A&M 62.44% 21.40% 7.50% 6.26% 2.40%
NEVADA 36.28% 36.22% 17.24% 8.28% 1.98%
FSU 65.14% 21.24% 6.64% 5.14% 1.84%
K STATE 61.06% 17.24% 14.62% 5.38% 1.70%
CLEMSON 69.20% 22.26% 6.08% 1.44% 1.02%
LOYOLA 63.72% 25.50% 8.28% 2.12% 0.38%
SYR 85.12% 11.06% 3.08% 0.42% 0.32%
>=3 >=4 >=5 6
DUKE 85.12% 55.14% 30.84% 22.84%
Villanova 67.26% 48.14% 28.80% 21.94%
KANSAS 69.20% 32.50% 15.94% 10.06%
ZAGS 65.14% 35.96% 23.78% 9.08%
MICH 62.44% 34.26% 22.26% 8.26%
UK 61.06% 40.02% 18.48% 5.82%
WVA 32.74% 18.02% 8.28% 5.06%
PURDUE 54.94% 19.72% 8.06% 4.56%
TEX TECH 45.06% 14.12% 4.88% 2.74%
TEX A&M 37.56% 16.16% 8.66% 2.40%
NEVADA 63.72% 27.50% 10.26% 1.98%
FSU 34.86% 13.62% 6.98% 1.84%
K STATE 38.94% 21.70% 7.08% 1.70%
CLEMSON 30.80% 8.54% 2.46% 1.02%
LOYOLA 36.28% 10.78% 2.50% 0.38%
SYR 14.88% 3.82% 0.74% 0.32%

March 17, 2018

Updated NCAA odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:16 am

16 beating a 1 is always more likely than all 4 #1 seeds making final 4 and it finally happened!

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Villanova 12.10% 22.52% 15.16% 16.82% 9.96% 23.44%
2 CINN 23.68% 25.56% 14.40% 13.86% 11.04% 11.46%
3 KANSAS 23.58% 22.88% 21.76% 14.24% 6.78% 10.76%
4 DUKE 24.18% 31.34% 20.28% 12.26% 5.26% 6.68%
5 UNC 31.20% 27.72% 16.32% 10.10% 8.24% 6.42%
6 MSU 21.20% 36.40% 19.50% 12.50% 4.24% 6.16%
7 ZAGS 37.44% 25.66% 17.74% 8.74% 5.68% 4.74%
8 TENN 22.36% 42.52% 13.20% 11.56% 6.04% 4.32%
9 MICH 36.96% 31.26% 14.72% 8.04% 5.12% 3.90%
10 WVA 11.50% 58.82% 12.72% 9.64% 3.82% 3.50%
11 XAVIER 37.44% 29.92% 17.00% 7.62% 5.10% 2.92%
12 UK 25.14% 27.62% 27.10% 12.10% 5.44% 2.60%
13 PURDUE 39.20% 27.80% 21.02% 6.70% 2.92% 2.36%
14 TEX TECH 43.64% 26.84% 19.90% 5.82% 2.06% 1.74%
15 AUB 42.46% 34.72% 13.36% 6.02% 1.86% 1.58%
16 K STATE 11.52% 46.74% 28.30% 8.56% 3.66% 1.22%
17 OHIO ST. 62.56% 20.48% 9.74% 3.88% 2.28% 1.06%
18 HOUS 63.04% 22.48% 8.58% 3.66% 1.46% 0.78%
19 FLORIDA 56.36% 23.28% 15.04% 3.52% 1.04% 0.76%
20 TEX A&M 68.80% 18.54% 7.32% 3.10% 1.54% 0.70%
21 CLEMSON 57.54% 28.82% 9.12% 3.00% 0.90% 0.62%
22 FSU 62.56% 23.94% 8.58% 3.06% 1.24% 0.62%
23 BUT 60.80% 22.08% 12.80% 3.08% 0.70% 0.54%
24 SETON HALL 76.42% 13.58% 6.72% 2.16% 0.80% 0.32%
25 NEVADA 76.32% 14.00% 5.28% 2.76% 1.32% 0.32%
26 SYR 78.80% 15.88% 4.06% 0.92% 0.20% 0.14%
27 RIU 75.82% 16.38% 5.20% 1.94% 0.52% 0.14%
28 BUFF 74.86% 15.44% 7.50% 1.84% 0.28% 0.08%
29 LOYOLA 77.64% 17.92% 2.98% 1.06% 0.32% 0.08%
30 ALA 87.90% 7.84% 2.76% 1.32% 0.14% 0.04%
31 MARSHALL 88.50% 10.82% 0.60% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00%
32 UMBC 88.48% 10.20% 1.24% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00%

Chance of each team winning >=n games.

>=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Villanova 87.90% 65.38% 50.22% 33.40% 23.44%
CINN 76.32% 50.76% 36.36% 22.50% 11.46%
KANSAS 76.42% 53.54% 31.78% 17.54% 10.76%
DUKE 75.82% 44.48% 24.20% 11.94% 6.68%
UNC 68.80% 41.08% 24.76% 14.66% 6.42%
MSU 78.80% 42.40% 22.90% 10.40% 6.16%
ZAGS 62.56% 36.90% 19.16% 10.42% 4.74%
TENN 77.64% 35.12% 21.92% 10.36% 4.32%
MICH 63.04% 31.78% 17.06% 9.02% 3.90%
WVA 88.50% 29.68% 16.96% 7.32% 3.50%
XAVIER 62.56% 32.64% 15.64% 8.02% 2.92%
UK 74.86% 47.24% 20.14% 8.04% 2.60%
PURDUE 60.80% 33.00% 11.98% 5.28% 2.36%
TEX TECH 56.36% 29.52% 9.62% 3.80% 1.74%
AUB 57.54% 22.82% 9.46% 3.44% 1.58%
K STATE 88.48% 41.74% 13.44% 4.88% 1.22%
OHIO ST. 37.44% 16.96% 7.22% 3.34% 1.06%
HOUS 36.96% 14.48% 5.90% 2.24% 0.78%
FLORIDA 43.64% 20.36% 5.32% 1.80% 0.76%
TEX A&M 31.20% 12.66% 5.34% 2.24% 0.70%
CLEMSON 42.46% 13.64% 4.52% 1.52% 0.62%
FSU 37.44% 13.50% 4.92% 1.86% 0.62%
BUT 39.20% 17.12% 4.32% 1.24% 0.54%
SETON HALL 23.58% 10.00% 3.28% 1.12% 0.32%
NEVADA 23.68% 9.68% 4.40% 1.64% 0.32%
SYR 21.20% 5.32% 1.26% 0.34% 0.14%
RIU 24.18% 7.80% 2.60% 0.66% 0.14%
BUFF 25.14% 9.70% 2.20% 0.36% 0.08%
LOYOLA 22.36% 4.44% 1.46% 0.40% 0.08%
ALA 12.10% 4.26% 1.50% 0.18% 0.04%
MARSHALL 11.50% 0.68% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
UMBC 11.52% 1.32% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
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