January 2, 2017

NFL Ratings January 2

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:17 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 New England Patriots 5.43 -4.50 9.93
2 Atlanta Falcons 10.05 1.83 8.22
3 Dallas Cowboys 4.77 -2.70 7.47
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 2.76 -2.60 5.36
5 Kansas City Chiefs 0.09 -5.02 5.11
6 Denver Broncos -2.05 -7.11 5.05
7 Oakland Raiders 5.43 0.78 4.65
8 Seattle Seahawks -2.09 -5.53 3.44
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.88 -2.91 2.03
10 New Orleans Saints 7.02 5.09 1.93
11 Green Bay Packers 3.73 1.88 1.85
12 Washington Redskins 2.89 1.60 1.28
13 Minnesota Vikings -2.99 -4.13 1.14
14 Cincinnati Bengals -1.50 -2.56 1.07
15 Philadelphia Eagles 1.04 -0.01 1.04
16 Carolina Panthers -0.03 -0.64 0.61
17 Baltimore Ravens -1.30 -1.86 0.56
18 New York Giants -4.23 -4.40 0.17
19 San Diego Chargers 4.01 3.94 0.07
20 Indianapolis Colts 3.12 3.45 -0.33
21 Buffalo Bills 2.27 2.60 -0.34
22 Arizona Cardinals 1.40 1.75 -0.35
23 Tennessee Titans 0.58 1.58 -1.01
24 Miami Dolphins 0.05 1.47 -1.42
25 Detroit Lions -1.65 0.33 -1.97
26 Houston Texans -4.50 -2.53 -1.98
27 Jacksonville Jaguars -2.97 1.64 -4.61
28 Chicago Bears -4.96 2.14 -7.10
29 New York Jets -5.49 2.86 -8.36
30 San Francisco 49ers -3.70 6.86 -10.56
31 Cleveland Browns -6.60 4.68 -11.28
32 Los Angeles Rams -9.69 2.00 -11.68

December 31, 2016

NBA Ratings December 31

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:47 am

Happy New Year! Go see LA LA Land, Arrival. or Manchester by the Sea if no games are on!

Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 12.27 11.99 -0.29
2 Toronto Raptors 8.09 5.67 -2.41
3 Houston Rockets 7.99 10.79 2.79
4 San Antonio Spurs 7.65 0.74 -6.92
5 Cleveland Cavaliers 6.75 6.21 -0.54
6 Los Angeles Clippers 5.45 4.05 -1.40
7 Utah Jazz 3.88 -5.68 -9.56
8 Boston Celtics 2.42 2.57 0.15
9 Charlotte Hornets 1.66 1.09 -0.57
10 Milwaukee Bucks 1.49 0.38 -1.11
11 Memphis Grizzlies 0.31 -6.45 -6.76
12 Detroit Pistons 0.31 -6.07 -6.37
13 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.22 0.78 0.56
14 Chicago Bulls -0.40 -4.16 -3.75
15 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.35 -0.31 1.04
16 Washington Wizards -1.49 1.11 2.60
17 Sacramento Kings -1.73 -2.47 -0.74
18 Denver Nuggets -1.98 3.87 5.85
19 Atlanta Hawks -2.34 -3.12 -0.78
20 Portland Trail Blazers -2.52 3.66 6.19
21 Indiana Pacers -2.58 -1.07 1.52
22 New York Knicks -2.63 0.60 3.23
23 Miami Heat -2.99 -4.96 -1.97
24 New Orleans Pelicans -3.12 -2.06 1.06
25 Dallas Mavericks -3.31 -9.11 -5.81
26 Orlando Magic -5.09 -5.24 -0.15
27 Los Angeles Lakers -5.15 0.27 5.43
28 Phoenix Suns -6.07 1.48 7.55
29 Brooklyn Nets -7.69 1.10 8.79
30 Philadelphia 76ers -8.06 -5.68 2.38

December 27, 2016

NFL Ratings December 27

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:31 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Atlanta Falcons 10.11 1.31 8.80
2 New England Patriots 5.79 -2.99 8.79
3 Dallas Cowboys 5.10 -2.99 8.10
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 3.10 -2.98 6.07
5 Oakland Raiders 6.09 0.32 5.77
6 Seattle Seahawks -0.36 -5.69 5.33
7 Kansas City Chiefs -1.52 -5.83 4.31
8 Denver Broncos -2.22 -5.52 3.30
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.12 -2.99 2.88
10 Baltimore Ravens -1.00 -2.66 1.65
11 Green Bay Packers 3.48 1.85 1.63
12 New Orleans Saints 6.79 5.32 1.47
13 Philadelphia Eagles 1.25 -0.01 1.26
14 Buffalo Bills 3.10 1.89 1.21
15 Washington Redskins 3.11 1.99 1.11
16 Indianapolis Colts 3.48 3.00 0.48
17 Minnesota Vikings -3.89 -4.22 0.32
18 Carolina Panthers 0.72 0.52 0.20
19 New York Giants -3.52 -3.62 0.10
20 Detroit Lions -0.72 -0.15 -0.57
21 San Diego Chargers 2.62 3.38 -0.76
22 Miami Dolphins 0.09 1.07 -0.97
23 Cincinnati Bengals -2.90 -1.63 -1.28
24 Houston Texans -4.52 -3.00 -1.52
25 Tennessee Titans 0.20 2.00 -1.80
26 Arizona Cardinals 0.03 2.01 -1.97
27 Jacksonville Jaguars -2.75 1.62 -4.37
28 Chicago Bears -4.90 1.62 -6.52
29 Los Angeles Rams -9.55 0.27 -9.81
30 New York Jets -5.91 4.00 -9.91
31 San Francisco 49ers -3.91 7.01 -10.91
32 Cleveland Browns -7.28 5.10 -12.38

December 21, 2016

NBA Ratings December 21

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 4:41 pm
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 12.64 11.93 -0.71
2 Toronto Raptors 8.85 7.25 -1.61
3 Los Angeles Clippers 7.78 5.32 -2.46
4 Houston Rockets 7.26 8.80 1.54
5 Cleveland Cavaliers 7.24 6.49 -0.75
6 San Antonio Spurs 6.69 0.34 -6.35
7 Utah Jazz 4.32 -5.26 -9.58
8 Boston Celtics 2.40 0.80 -1.60
9 Chicago Bulls 1.40 -3.03 -4.43
10 Detroit Pistons 1.25 -6.19 -7.44
11 Charlotte Hornets 1.00 0.87 -0.13
12 Milwaukee Bucks 0.73 -0.78 -1.52
13 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.11 0.21 0.10
14 Memphis Grizzlies -0.93 -8.11 -7.18
15 Sacramento Kings -1.84 -2.19 -0.34
16 Denver Nuggets -1.85 3.75 5.60
17 Washington Wizards -1.94 1.12 3.06
18 Atlanta Hawks -2.04 -2.17 -0.14
19 Portland Trail Blazers -2.19 5.62 7.81
20 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.22 0.27 2.49
21 New York Knicks -2.35 0.97 3.32
22 Indiana Pacers -2.51 -0.77 1.74
23 Miami Heat -2.69 -4.41 -1.72
24 New Orleans Pelicans -3.71 -2.05 1.66
25 Dallas Mavericks -4.38 -9.48 -5.10
26 Los Angeles Lakers -4.86 0.60 5.46
27 Orlando Magic -5.38 -5.67 -0.29
28 Phoenix Suns -6.57 0.78 7.36
29 Brooklyn Nets -7.66 1.72 9.38
30 Philadelphia 76ers -8.55 -6.71 1.84

December 20, 2016

NFL Ratings December 20

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:51 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 New England Patriots 4.73 -2.74 7.47
2 Dallas Cowboys 4.78 -2.50 7.28
3 Atlanta Falcons 9.76 2.52 7.24
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 2.72 -3.72 6.44
5 Oakland Raiders 6.26 0.71 5.55
6 Denver Broncos -2.45 -7.31 4.86
7 Seattle Seahawks -1.64 -6.15 4.51
8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.76 -2.50 3.26
9 Kansas City Chiefs -2.43 -5.48 3.05
10 San Diego Chargers 4.57 2.52 2.05
11 Baltimore Ravens -2.24 -3.59 1.34
12 Minnesota Vikings -4.24 -5.46 1.22
13 New Orleans Saints 6.86 5.71 1.15
14 Carolina Panthers 1.76 0.69 1.07
15 Green Bay Packers 2.57 1.54 1.03
16 Buffalo Bills 2.40 1.52 0.88
17 Indianapolis Colts 4.23 3.54 0.69
18 Tennessee Titans 1.22 0.83 0.39
19 Philadelphia Eagles 0.63 0.25 0.38
20 Washington Redskins 2.75 2.50 0.25
21 New York Giants -3.35 -3.29 -0.06
22 Houston Texans -3.28 -2.97 -0.31
23 Detroit Lions -1.44 -1.12 -0.32
24 Miami Dolphins -0.24 1.16 -1.40
25 Cincinnati Bengals -2.00 -0.50 -1.50
26 Arizona Cardinals 0.02 2.01 -1.98
27 Jacksonville Jaguars -2.26 2.69 -4.96
28 Chicago Bears -4.77 1.05 -5.81
29 New York Jets -5.02 3.91 -8.93
30 Los Angeles Rams -9.00 0.17 -9.17
31 San Francisco 49ers -4.22 7.52 -11.74
32 Cleveland Browns -7.43 6.52 -13.95

December 18, 2016

An Analytics Reading List

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:14 am

Here is a list of books I feel any analytics expert (not just sports) should have encountered. I am biased towards my books a bit, so some of mine are on the list. I am not an expert programmer so I do not have any favorites for programming.

You need to be great at high school math (not just good) so you should work every problem in the beautiful

Art of Problem Solving by Sandor Lehoczky and Richard Rusczyk.

For probability I love

Understanding Probability by Henk Tijms, 3rd edition

Henk is probably the world’s greatest probabilist (excuse the pun!)

For calculus based probability (joint distributions, etc.) I love the underrated gem by George Wadsworth

Introduction to Probability and Random Variables.

For a practical guide to stochastic processes I recommend Ed Kao’s masterful

An Introduction to Stochastic Processes.

Ed’s book is great on non-stationary stochastic processes.

By far the best introduction to intermediate stats book I have seen is

Statistics and Data Analysis: From Elementary to Intermediate by Dorothy Dunlop and Ajit Tahane

After mastering this book you can move on to

All of Statistics, Larry Wasserman which gives you a concise view of statistical theory

I think resampling is vastly underused in analytics and I love

Mathematical Statistics with Resampling and R Laura Chicara and Tim Hestenberg.

A great book on R and Analytics is Johannes Ledolter’s

Data Mining and Business Analytics with R.

You cannot go wrong with any of Ledolter’s books so I also recommend

Testing 123 (experimental design)

Statistical Methods for Forecasting

To get to the frontiers of modern statistics I recommend

Elements of Statistical Learning by Trevor Hastie and Robert Tibshirani.

For multivariate statistics

Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis by Richard Johnson and Dean Wichern is tops.

For an introduction to operations research I recommend my

Operations Research

Most important  OR topic that most analysts know little about is dynamic programming which I introduce, but then I recommend Dimitri Bersetkas’ two volume classic

Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control

For learning how to think Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow is a masterpiece. Don’t miss Michael Lewis’ new The Undoing Project which humanizes Tversky and Kahneman. The Undoing Project will break your heart several times.

For a goo understanding of microeconomics I recommend

Microeconomics by Besanko and Brautigan.

For game theory I recommend Gibbons’

Game Theory for Economists

 

For a quick introduction to critical thinking I love The Art  of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli

To know everything that Excel can do (short of macros) I recommend my book (just out)

Microsoft Excel 2016 Data Analysis and Business Modeling.

For Excel macros the analyst needs to master my colleague and coauthor’s book

VBA for Modelers 4th edition

For books on specific analytic subjects see below

Sports

No book is adequate but (I am biased) I think my Mathletics will get you going. You need to keep searching the Internet daily to keep up. Definitely read the Rating Teams chapter for a quick intro on how to rate sports teams.

Marketing

For an introduction I recommend my book Marketing Analytics but the advanced reader needs to master Blattberg and Kim’s opus magnus Database Marketing.

Finance

There are so many great books here but I love David Luenberger’s Investment Science  (2nd edition) and John Hull’s Options Futures and Other Derivatives (9th edition)

Supply Chain

At a basic to intermediate level I love Chopra and Meindl’s  Supply Chain Management 6th edition.

For advanced readers try

Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory by  Snyder and Shen and David Simchi-Levi’s The Logic of Logistics, 2013.

Hope this list is helpful!

 

 

 

 

 

December 15, 2016

NBA Ratings Dec 14

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:31 am
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 10.83 12.44 1.62
2 Toronto Raptors 9.09 7.35 -1.74
3 Los Angeles Clippers 8.55 5.78 -2.77
4 Cleveland Cavaliers 7.54 6.44 -1.09
5 Houston Rockets 7.30 9.22 1.92
6 San Antonio Spurs 6.18 0.48 -5.70
7 Utah Jazz 5.11 -4.09 -9.20
8 Detroit Pistons 3.63 -5.47 -9.10
9 Boston Celtics 1.92 0.67 -1.25
10 Chicago Bulls 1.91 -1.91 -3.82
11 Charlotte Hornets 1.09 1.38 0.29
12 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.38 0.39 0.01
13 Memphis Grizzlies -0.24 -7.59 -7.34
14 Portland Trail Blazers -0.78 5.63 6.41
15 Milwaukee Bucks -0.94 -0.82 0.12
16 Sacramento Kings -1.57 -2.07 -0.50
17 Miami Heat -1.99 -5.13 -3.14
18 New York Knicks -2.07 1.29 3.36
19 Denver Nuggets -2.25 2.46 4.71
20 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.30 0.14 2.44
21 Atlanta Hawks -2.83 -3.42 -0.58
22 Indiana Pacers -2.99 -0.96 2.03
23 Washington Wizards -3.11 0.00 3.10
24 New Orleans Pelicans -4.33 -2.33 1.99
25 Orlando Magic -5.17 -6.60 -1.44
26 Dallas Mavericks -5.32 -10.57 -5.25
27 Los Angeles Lakers -5.73 0.05 5.78
28 Phoenix Suns -6.40 1.26 7.66
29 Philadelphia 76ers -7.42 -5.38 2.03
30 Brooklyn Nets -8.08 1.35 9.43

December 13, 2016

NFL Ratings December 13

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:51 pm
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Dallas Cowboys 5.50 -3.15 8.65
2 New England Patriots 5.04 -2.32 7.36
3 Atlanta Falcons 10.50 4.30 6.20
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 2.16 -3.83 5.99
5 Denver Broncos -1.34 -6.60 5.26
6 Oakland Raiders 6.83 1.83 5.00
7 Kansas City Chiefs -1.79 -6.14 4.35
8 Seattle Seahawks -2.48 -5.77 3.29
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.28 -3.15 2.87
10 Washington Redskins 4.07 1.47 2.60
11 Minnesota Vikings -2.99 -5.40 2.42
12 Baltimore Ravens -2.28 -4.40 2.12
13 Green Bay Packers 2.07 0.25 1.82
14 San Diego Chargers 4.09 3.21 0.88
15 New York Giants -1.93 -2.80 0.87
16 New Orleans Saints 5.64 4.83 0.80
17 Detroit Lions -0.06 -0.63 0.57
18 Philadelphia Eagles -0.51 -1.03 0.52
19 Buffalo Bills 1.64 2.05 -0.40
20 Indianapolis Colts 3.81 4.33 -0.52
21 Cincinnati Bengals -2.19 -1.46 -0.73
22 Carolina Panthers 0.83 1.73 -0.90
23 Houston Texans -3.34 -2.36 -0.98
24 Arizona Cardinals -0.64 0.85 -1.49
25 Tennessee Titans 0.33 1.84 -1.51
26 Miami Dolphins -0.81 2.00 -2.81
27 Jacksonville Jaguars -2.56 2.42 -4.98
28 Chicago Bears -5.15 -0.03 -5.13
29 New York Jets -4.64 3.84 -8.48
30 Los Angeles Rams -9.19 -0.04 -9.15
31 San Francisco 49ers -3.81 7.85 -11.66
32 Cleveland Browns -6.50 6.32 -12.82

December 11, 2016

NBA Ratings December 11

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:00 am
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 11.32 12.84 1.52
2 Toronto Raptors 9.19 6.57 -2.62
3 Los Angeles Clippers 9.17 5.20 -3.97
4 Cleveland Cavaliers 7.78 7.62 -0.16
5 Houston Rockets 6.98 8.62 1.64
6 San Antonio Spurs 6.12 0.42 -5.69
7 Detroit Pistons 4.92 -4.31 -9.23
8 Utah Jazz 4.65 -4.17 -8.82
9 Chicago Bulls 2.28 -1.39 -3.67
10 Boston Celtics 1.90 0.86 -1.05
11 Charlotte Hornets 1.84 1.89 0.05
12 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.77 1.85 0.08
13 Milwaukee Bucks -0.62 -0.65 -0.03
14 Memphis Grizzlies -0.68 -6.97 -6.28
15 Sacramento Kings -1.42 -1.88 -0.46
16 Denver Nuggets -1.62 2.81 4.43
17 Atlanta Hawks -1.98 -4.20 -2.21
18 Portland Trail Blazers -2.01 4.96 6.97
19 New York Knicks -2.02 0.93 2.95
20 Miami Heat -2.35 -5.05 -2.70
21 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.84 0.25 3.09
22 Washington Wizards -3.02 0.13 3.15
23 Indiana Pacers -3.69 -0.61 3.07
24 Los Angeles Lakers -4.43 1.10 5.52
25 New Orleans Pelicans -4.65 -2.80 1.85
26 Orlando Magic -6.06 -8.59 -2.53
27 Dallas Mavericks -6.07 -10.99 -4.91
28 Phoenix Suns -6.48 0.77 7.25
29 Brooklyn Nets -8.92 1.21 10.13
30 Philadelphia 76ers -9.06 -6.42 2.64

December 6, 2016

NBA Ratings Dec 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:23 am
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 12.18 14.10 1.92
2 Los Angeles Clippers 9.38 4.73 -4.65
3 Toronto Raptors 8.63 6.13 -2.50
4 San Antonio Spurs 5.71 0.53 -5.18
5 Houston Rockets 5.43 8.33 2.89
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 5.03 6.51 1.48
7 Utah Jazz 4.81 -4.08 -8.89
8 Detroit Pistons 4.03 -4.05 -8.08
9 Chicago Bulls 2.47 -1.09 -3.57
10 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.93 2.58 0.65
11 Charlotte Hornets 0.91 2.29 1.37
12 Boston Celtics 0.75 0.47 -0.28
13 Milwaukee Bucks -0.12 -0.95 -0.83
14 Miami Heat -0.89 -4.89 -4.00
15 Memphis Grizzlies -1.13 -5.81 -4.68
16 Denver Nuggets -1.14 3.16 4.30
17 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.36 0.41 1.77
18 Portland Trail Blazers -1.54 5.81 7.35
19 Sacramento Kings -1.78 -1.99 -0.21
20 New York Knicks -2.10 0.60 2.70
21 Atlanta Hawks -2.62 -5.19 -2.57
22 Los Angeles Lakers -2.74 1.58 4.32
23 New Orleans Pelicans -2.97 -2.26 0.71
24 Washington Wizards -3.19 0.15 3.34
25 Indiana Pacers -4.36 -1.11 3.25
26 Orlando Magic -4.84 -9.78 -4.94
27 Dallas Mavericks -4.87 -11.26 -6.38
28 Phoenix Suns -6.13 0.71 6.84
29 Brooklyn Nets -8.85 0.93 9.78
30 Philadelphia 76ers -10.64 -6.56 4.08
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