December 18, 2016

An Analytics Reading List

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:14 am

Here is a list of books I feel any analytics expert (not just sports) should have encountered. I am biased towards my books a bit, so some of mine are on the list. I am not an expert programmer so I do not have any favorites for programming.

You need to be great at high school math (not just good) so you should work every problem in the beautiful

Art of Problem Solving by Sandor Lehoczky and Richard Rusczyk.

For probability I love

Understanding Probability by Henk Tijms, 3rd edition

Henk is probably the world’s greatest probabilist (excuse the pun!)

For calculus based probability (joint distributions, etc.) I love the underrated gem by George Wadsworth

Introduction to Probability and Random Variables.

For a practical guide to stochastic processes I recommend Ed Kao’s masterful

An Introduction to Stochastic Processes.

Ed’s book is great on non-stationary stochastic processes.

By far the best introduction to intermediate stats book I have seen is

Statistics and Data Analysis: From Elementary to Intermediate by Dorothy Dunlop and Ajit Tahane

After mastering this book you can move on to

All of Statistics, Larry Wasserman which gives you a concise view of statistical theory

I think resampling is vastly underused in analytics and I love

Mathematical Statistics with Resampling and R Laura Chicara and Tim Hestenberg.

A great book on R and Analytics is Johannes Ledolter’s

Data Mining and Business Analytics with R.

You cannot go wrong with any of Ledolter’s books so I also recommend

Testing 123 (experimental design)

Statistical Methods for Forecasting

To get to the frontiers of modern statistics I recommend

Elements of Statistical Learning by Trevor Hastie and Robert Tibshirani.

For multivariate statistics

Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis by Richard Johnson and Dean Wichern is tops.

For an introduction to operations research I recommend my

Operations Research

Most important  OR topic that most analysts know little about is dynamic programming which I introduce, but then I recommend Dimitri Bersetkas’ two volume classic

Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control

For learning how to think Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow is a masterpiece. Don’t miss Michael Lewis’ new The Undoing Project which humanizes Tversky and Kahneman. The Undoing Project will break your heart several times.

For a goo understanding of microeconomics I recommend

Microeconomics by Besanko and Brautigan.

For game theory I recommend Gibbons’

Game Theory for Economists

 

For a quick introduction to critical thinking I love The Art  of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli

To know everything that Excel can do (short of macros) I recommend my book (just out)

Microsoft Excel 2016 Data Analysis and Business Modeling.

For Excel macros the analyst needs to master my colleague and coauthor’s book

VBA for Modelers 4th edition

For books on specific analytic subjects see below

Sports

No book is adequate but (I am biased) I think my Mathletics will get you going. You need to keep searching the Internet daily to keep up. Definitely read the Rating Teams chapter for a quick intro on how to rate sports teams.

Marketing

For an introduction I recommend my book Marketing Analytics but the advanced reader needs to master Blattberg and Kim’s opus magnus Database Marketing.

Finance

There are so many great books here but I love David Luenberger’s Investment Science  (2nd edition) and John Hull’s Options Futures and Other Derivatives (9th edition)

Supply Chain

At a basic to intermediate level I love Chopra and Meindl’s  Supply Chain Management 6th edition.

For advanced readers try

Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory by  Snyder and Shen and David Simchi-Levi’s The Logic of Logistics, 2013.

Hope this list is helpful!

 

 

 

 

 

December 15, 2016

NBA Ratings Dec 14

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:31 am
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 10.83 12.44 1.62
2 Toronto Raptors 9.09 7.35 -1.74
3 Los Angeles Clippers 8.55 5.78 -2.77
4 Cleveland Cavaliers 7.54 6.44 -1.09
5 Houston Rockets 7.30 9.22 1.92
6 San Antonio Spurs 6.18 0.48 -5.70
7 Utah Jazz 5.11 -4.09 -9.20
8 Detroit Pistons 3.63 -5.47 -9.10
9 Boston Celtics 1.92 0.67 -1.25
10 Chicago Bulls 1.91 -1.91 -3.82
11 Charlotte Hornets 1.09 1.38 0.29
12 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.38 0.39 0.01
13 Memphis Grizzlies -0.24 -7.59 -7.34
14 Portland Trail Blazers -0.78 5.63 6.41
15 Milwaukee Bucks -0.94 -0.82 0.12
16 Sacramento Kings -1.57 -2.07 -0.50
17 Miami Heat -1.99 -5.13 -3.14
18 New York Knicks -2.07 1.29 3.36
19 Denver Nuggets -2.25 2.46 4.71
20 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.30 0.14 2.44
21 Atlanta Hawks -2.83 -3.42 -0.58
22 Indiana Pacers -2.99 -0.96 2.03
23 Washington Wizards -3.11 0.00 3.10
24 New Orleans Pelicans -4.33 -2.33 1.99
25 Orlando Magic -5.17 -6.60 -1.44
26 Dallas Mavericks -5.32 -10.57 -5.25
27 Los Angeles Lakers -5.73 0.05 5.78
28 Phoenix Suns -6.40 1.26 7.66
29 Philadelphia 76ers -7.42 -5.38 2.03
30 Brooklyn Nets -8.08 1.35 9.43

December 13, 2016

NFL Ratings December 13

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:51 pm
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Dallas Cowboys 5.50 -3.15 8.65
2 New England Patriots 5.04 -2.32 7.36
3 Atlanta Falcons 10.50 4.30 6.20
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 2.16 -3.83 5.99
5 Denver Broncos -1.34 -6.60 5.26
6 Oakland Raiders 6.83 1.83 5.00
7 Kansas City Chiefs -1.79 -6.14 4.35
8 Seattle Seahawks -2.48 -5.77 3.29
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.28 -3.15 2.87
10 Washington Redskins 4.07 1.47 2.60
11 Minnesota Vikings -2.99 -5.40 2.42
12 Baltimore Ravens -2.28 -4.40 2.12
13 Green Bay Packers 2.07 0.25 1.82
14 San Diego Chargers 4.09 3.21 0.88
15 New York Giants -1.93 -2.80 0.87
16 New Orleans Saints 5.64 4.83 0.80
17 Detroit Lions -0.06 -0.63 0.57
18 Philadelphia Eagles -0.51 -1.03 0.52
19 Buffalo Bills 1.64 2.05 -0.40
20 Indianapolis Colts 3.81 4.33 -0.52
21 Cincinnati Bengals -2.19 -1.46 -0.73
22 Carolina Panthers 0.83 1.73 -0.90
23 Houston Texans -3.34 -2.36 -0.98
24 Arizona Cardinals -0.64 0.85 -1.49
25 Tennessee Titans 0.33 1.84 -1.51
26 Miami Dolphins -0.81 2.00 -2.81
27 Jacksonville Jaguars -2.56 2.42 -4.98
28 Chicago Bears -5.15 -0.03 -5.13
29 New York Jets -4.64 3.84 -8.48
30 Los Angeles Rams -9.19 -0.04 -9.15
31 San Francisco 49ers -3.81 7.85 -11.66
32 Cleveland Browns -6.50 6.32 -12.82

December 11, 2016

NBA Ratings December 11

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:00 am
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 11.32 12.84 1.52
2 Toronto Raptors 9.19 6.57 -2.62
3 Los Angeles Clippers 9.17 5.20 -3.97
4 Cleveland Cavaliers 7.78 7.62 -0.16
5 Houston Rockets 6.98 8.62 1.64
6 San Antonio Spurs 6.12 0.42 -5.69
7 Detroit Pistons 4.92 -4.31 -9.23
8 Utah Jazz 4.65 -4.17 -8.82
9 Chicago Bulls 2.28 -1.39 -3.67
10 Boston Celtics 1.90 0.86 -1.05
11 Charlotte Hornets 1.84 1.89 0.05
12 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.77 1.85 0.08
13 Milwaukee Bucks -0.62 -0.65 -0.03
14 Memphis Grizzlies -0.68 -6.97 -6.28
15 Sacramento Kings -1.42 -1.88 -0.46
16 Denver Nuggets -1.62 2.81 4.43
17 Atlanta Hawks -1.98 -4.20 -2.21
18 Portland Trail Blazers -2.01 4.96 6.97
19 New York Knicks -2.02 0.93 2.95
20 Miami Heat -2.35 -5.05 -2.70
21 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.84 0.25 3.09
22 Washington Wizards -3.02 0.13 3.15
23 Indiana Pacers -3.69 -0.61 3.07
24 Los Angeles Lakers -4.43 1.10 5.52
25 New Orleans Pelicans -4.65 -2.80 1.85
26 Orlando Magic -6.06 -8.59 -2.53
27 Dallas Mavericks -6.07 -10.99 -4.91
28 Phoenix Suns -6.48 0.77 7.25
29 Brooklyn Nets -8.92 1.21 10.13
30 Philadelphia 76ers -9.06 -6.42 2.64

December 6, 2016

NBA Ratings Dec 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:23 am
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 12.18 14.10 1.92
2 Los Angeles Clippers 9.38 4.73 -4.65
3 Toronto Raptors 8.63 6.13 -2.50
4 San Antonio Spurs 5.71 0.53 -5.18
5 Houston Rockets 5.43 8.33 2.89
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 5.03 6.51 1.48
7 Utah Jazz 4.81 -4.08 -8.89
8 Detroit Pistons 4.03 -4.05 -8.08
9 Chicago Bulls 2.47 -1.09 -3.57
10 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.93 2.58 0.65
11 Charlotte Hornets 0.91 2.29 1.37
12 Boston Celtics 0.75 0.47 -0.28
13 Milwaukee Bucks -0.12 -0.95 -0.83
14 Miami Heat -0.89 -4.89 -4.00
15 Memphis Grizzlies -1.13 -5.81 -4.68
16 Denver Nuggets -1.14 3.16 4.30
17 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.36 0.41 1.77
18 Portland Trail Blazers -1.54 5.81 7.35
19 Sacramento Kings -1.78 -1.99 -0.21
20 New York Knicks -2.10 0.60 2.70
21 Atlanta Hawks -2.62 -5.19 -2.57
22 Los Angeles Lakers -2.74 1.58 4.32
23 New Orleans Pelicans -2.97 -2.26 0.71
24 Washington Wizards -3.19 0.15 3.34
25 Indiana Pacers -4.36 -1.11 3.25
26 Orlando Magic -4.84 -9.78 -4.94
27 Dallas Mavericks -4.87 -11.26 -6.38
28 Phoenix Suns -6.13 0.71 6.84
29 Brooklyn Nets -8.85 0.93 9.78
30 Philadelphia 76ers -10.64 -6.56 4.08

NFL Ratings Dec 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:09 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 New England Patriots 4.84 -4.02 8.86
2 Dallas Cowboys 4.85 -3.77 8.62
3 Denver Broncos -0.60 -8.04 7.43
4 Seattle Seahawks -0.39 -7.04 6.65
5 Atlanta Falcons 9.13 2.48 6.65
6 Oakland Raiders 8.14 1.90 6.25
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.21 -5.76 5.96
8 Baltimore Ravens -2.36 -7.02 4.66
9 San Diego Chargers 5.13 1.94 3.19
10 New Orleans Saints 7.96 4.95 3.01
11 Kansas City Chiefs -2.09 -5.05 2.95
12 Minnesota Vikings -5.10 -7.12 2.02
13 Carolina Panthers 1.05 0.27 0.78
14 Philadelphia Eagles 0.66 0.22 0.44
15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.10 -0.05 0.15
16 Detroit Lions -0.14 -0.12 -0.02
17 Washington Redskins 2.86 2.94 -0.08
18 Buffalo Bills 1.84 1.96 -0.12
19 Cincinnati Bengals -0.89 -0.76 -0.12
20 Green Bay Packers -0.79 0.09 -0.88
21 New York Giants -2.15 -0.13 -2.02
22 Houston Texans -3.80 -1.76 -2.05
23 Arizona Cardinals -1.77 0.37 -2.13
24 Indianapolis Colts 2.85 5.89 -3.04
25 Miami Dolphins -2.17 1.26 -3.42
26 Tennessee Titans -0.78 3.88 -4.67
27 Jacksonville Jaguars -2.87 2.25 -5.11
28 Los Angeles Rams -7.88 -2.76 -5.12
29 New York Jets -1.15 5.25 -6.40
30 Chicago Bears -6.80 2.24 -9.04
31 Cleveland Browns -4.90 6.25 -11.16
32 San Francisco 49ers -3.00 9.25 -12.25

December 1, 2016

NBA Ratings Dec 1

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:04 am
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 11.99 12.25 0.25
2 Los Angeles Clippers 9.24 4.99 -4.25
3 Toronto Raptors 6.32 5.44 -0.87
4 San Antonio Spurs 6.14 1.29 -4.85
5 Utah Jazz 5.53 -4.55 -10.09
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 5.18 6.64 1.45
7 Chicago Bulls 4.83 -0.25 -5.07
8 Houston Rockets 4.32 7.05 2.73
9 Detroit Pistons 3.08 -5.21 -8.29
10 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.48 3.16 1.68
11 Atlanta Hawks 1.21 -3.59 -4.80
12 Charlotte Hornets 1.12 1.64 0.53
13 Boston Celtics 1.03 1.63 0.60
14 Denver Nuggets -0.69 3.74 4.42
15 Miami Heat -1.07 -5.20 -4.13
16 Milwaukee Bucks -1.17 -0.23 0.95
17 Memphis Grizzlies -1.20 -6.18 -4.98
18 Los Angeles Lakers -1.22 3.41 4.63
19 Sacramento Kings -1.66 -1.24 0.42
20 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.71 -0.89 0.81
21 Portland Trail Blazers -2.09 6.36 8.45
22 New Orleans Pelicans -2.26 -1.99 0.27
23 New York Knicks -2.58 0.44 3.02
24 Washington Wizards -3.80 -0.37 3.43
25 Indiana Pacers -4.57 -1.76 2.82
26 Phoenix Suns -5.55 0.89 6.45
27 Dallas Mavericks -6.32 -12.00 -5.68
28 Orlando Magic -7.04 -11.13 -4.09
29 Brooklyn Nets -8.14 1.55 9.69
30 Philadelphia 76ers -10.37 -5.87 4.50

November 29, 2016

NFL RATINGS NOVEMBER 29

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:11 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Dallas Cowboys 5.02 -2.52 7.54
2 New England Patriots 3.51 -3.92 7.44
3 Atlanta Falcons 10.23 2.84 7.39
4 Denver Broncos -0.07 -5.43 5.36
5 Philadelphia Eagles 0.61 -3.86 4.47
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.78 -2.59 4.37
7 Seattle Seahawks -3.07 -7.06 3.99
8 Kansas City Chiefs -0.96 -4.51 3.55
9 Oakland Raiders 4.70 1.17 3.53
10 New Orleans Saints 7.74 4.29 3.45
11 Buffalo Bills 3.65 0.36 3.29
12 San Diego Chargers 5.40 2.18 3.22
13 Washington Redskins 3.69 1.51 2.18
14 Minnesota Vikings -3.13 -4.89 1.76
15 Arizona Cardinals -1.30 -2.05 0.74
16 New York Giants -1.88 -2.45 0.57
17 Carolina Panthers 1.83 1.30 0.53
18 Baltimore Ravens -4.49 -4.30 -0.19
19 Miami Dolphins -0.95 -0.30 -0.65
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.09 0.66 -0.76
21 Green Bay Packers 1.70 2.74 -1.03
22 Detroit Lions -0.62 0.81 -1.44
23 Cincinnati Bengals -2.50 -0.96 -1.54
24 Tennessee Titans 0.89 2.67 -1.79
25 Houston Texans -5.25 -1.39 -3.86
26 Indianapolis Colts 1.31 5.18 -3.87
27 New York Jets -3.13 2.71 -5.84
28 Los Angeles Rams -7.91 -1.67 -6.23
29 Jacksonville Jaguars -3.93 3.63 -7.56
30 Chicago Bears -6.68 1.46 -8.13
31 San Francisco 49ers -1.13 7.82 -8.95
32 Cleveland Browns -4.98 6.57 -11.55

November 26, 2016

Nov 26 NBA Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:58 am
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 12.35 12.59 0.24
2 Los Angeles Clippers 12.12 7.67 -4.45
3 San Antonio Spurs 7.68 2.80 -4.88
4 Cleveland Cavaliers 6.91 7.50 0.60
5 Toronto Raptors 5.81 4.41 -1.41
6 Chicago Bulls 5.75 1.22 -4.53
7 Utah Jazz 4.83 -6.24 -11.06
8 Houston Rockets 4.42 6.21 1.79
9 Detroit Pistons 2.34 -6.46 -8.80
10 Atlanta Hawks 2.09 -2.65 -4.74
11 Charlotte Hornets 1.59 2.61 1.02
12 Boston Celtics 1.20 -0.07 -1.27
13 Memphis Grizzlies 0.23 -6.80 -7.03
14 Oklahoma City Thunder -0.17 1.81 1.97
15 Denver Nuggets -0.36 4.44 4.80
16 Miami Heat -0.89 -6.30 -5.41
17 Minnesota Timberwolves -1.10 -0.88 0.22
18 Portland Trail Blazers -1.84 5.70 7.54
19 Los Angeles Lakers -2.23 4.50 6.73
20 Sacramento Kings -2.24 -1.20 1.04
21 New York Knicks -2.45 1.38 3.82
22 New Orleans Pelicans -2.56 -0.79 1.77
23 Milwaukee Bucks -3.26 -1.51 1.75
24 Washington Wizards -3.48 -0.40 3.08
25 Indiana Pacers -5.74 -1.30 4.44
26 Phoenix Suns -5.74 0.26 6.00
27 Dallas Mavericks -7.01 -11.33 -4.33
28 Brooklyn Nets -8.64 0.18 8.83
29 Orlando Magic -8.78 -11.65 -2.87
30 Philadelphia 76ers -10.83 -5.71 5.11

November 22, 2016

NFL Ratings November 21

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:00 am
Team Offense Defense Rating
New England Patriots 4.21 -4.57 8.78
Dallas Cowboys 4.84 -2.87 7.70
Philadelphia Eagles 1.85 -4.78 6.63
Atlanta Falcons 9.12 3.18 5.94
Seattle Seahawks -1.06 -6.79 5.73
Denver Broncos -1.50 -7.03 5.54
Buffalo Bills 4.52 -0.35 4.88
Pittsburgh Steelers 2.21 -1.01 3.22
Oakland Raiders 3.94 0.96 2.98
San Diego Chargers 6.28 3.85 2.42
Arizona Cardinals -0.83 -3.06 2.22
Kansas City Chiefs -3.23 -5.42 2.19
Minnesota Vikings -2.56 -4.63 2.07
Washington Redskins 3.03 1.25 1.79
New Orleans Saints 5.80 4.32 1.48
Miami Dolphins -0.91 -1.19 0.28
New York Giants -1.69 -1.79 0.10
Carolina Panthers 1.39 1.55 -0.16
Baltimore Ravens -4.66 -4.30 -0.35
Cincinnati Bengals -2.23 -1.09 -1.14
Detroit Lions -0.27 1.40 -1.67
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.80 2.85 -2.05
Tennessee Titans 0.12 2.21 -2.09
Indianapolis Colts 2.78 5.73 -2.95
Green Bay Packers 0.83 4.31 -3.48
Houston Texans -4.19 -0.60 -3.59
Los Angeles Rams -8.37 -4.04 -4.32
New York Jets -2.68 3.10 -5.78
Chicago Bears -7.35 0.71 -8.06
Jacksonville Jaguars -4.52 4.14 -8.66
San Francisco 49ers -1.20 7.58 -8.79
Cleveland Browns -4.49 6.38 -10.88
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