March 6, 2018

NBA Ratings March 6

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:00 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Houston Rockets 6.35 -2.90 9.25
2 Toronto Raptors 6.11 -2.67 8.78
3 Golden State Warriors 9.57 1.89 7.68
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.45 -0.30 3.75
5 Philadelphia 76ers 0.51 -3.02 3.53
6 Boston Celtics -2.39 -5.91 3.53
7 San Antonio Spurs -3.69 -6.69 3.00
8 Los Angeles Clippers 5.27 2.70 2.57
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.27 -1.28 2.55
10 Utah Jazz -4.00 -6.35 2.34
11 Portland Trail Blazers -0.09 -2.37 2.28
12 Charlotte Hornets 1.66 0.60 1.06
13 New Orleans Pelicans 6.77 5.82 0.95
14 Washington Wizards 0.72 -0.17 0.90
15 Indiana Pacers -1.19 -2.05 0.87
16 Miami Heat -4.28 -5.11 0.83
17 Denver Nuggets 2.70 2.29 0.41
18 Milwaukee Bucks -2.00 -1.89 -0.11
19 Los Angeles Lakers 2.68 3.29 -0.61
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.65 5.19 -1.54
21 Detroit Pistons -2.77 -0.93 -1.84
22 Dallas Mavericks -3.83 -0.96 -2.87
23 Orlando Magic -0.34 3.06 -3.40
24 New York Knicks -1.83 2.18 -4.01
25 Atlanta Hawks -3.62 1.23 -4.85
26 Brooklyn Nets -2.05 3.36 -5.41
27 Memphis Grizzlies -8.47 -2.60 -5.87
28 Chicago Bulls -1.66 4.72 -6.38
29 Sacramento Kings -6.01 1.42 -7.43
30 Phoenix Suns -2.50 7.43 -9.93

March 4, 2018

Why is Standard Deviation of NBA scores about point spread 12 points.

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:53 am

The wonderful Steve Ilardi started a great discussion on Twitter concerning variability of margin of victory in NBA games. The standard deviation of the margin of victory relative to the point spread is near 12 points. Can we use basic probability and statistics to explain this fact? We know

  • Average NBA team takes 86 FGA per game
  • EFG is around 50%

For a back of the envelope estimate on the  difference between margin of victory and point spread note that based on teams playing, each team has its own mean EFG (say MeanEFGFav and MeanEFGDog) for that game. What would be the standard deviation of the actual EFG percentage                                           difference (EFGpercentageFav-EFGpercentageDog) for this game? From basic stats standard deviation of observed EFG  percentage     for each team during a game  is sqrt(.5*.5/85).

  •   Therefore standard deviation of difference in observed EFGpercentages for a game is sqrt(2)*sqrt(1/340) = 7.6%.
  • Difference in FGs for games should have a standard deviation of around 85*(.076) which is near 6.
  • This translates to around 12 points.

I am assuming the actual EFGs for each team are independent (probably not true, since team behind probably tries better lineups to make game closer and this would reduce my 6 FG difference number)  and the rest of the analysis is oversimplified, but is comforting (to me at least) to see a reasonable explanation for the  12 point variability about the point spread.

March 1, 2018

NBA Ratings March 1

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:07 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Toronto Raptors 6.94 -2.22 9.16
2 Houston Rockets 5.97 -2.79 8.76
3 Golden State Warriors 9.69 1.87 7.82
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.54 -0.63 4.17
5 Boston Celtics -2.39 -6.01 3.61
6 Philadelphia 76ers 0.66 -2.92 3.58
7 San Antonio Spurs -3.71 -6.66 2.95
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.94 -1.68 2.62
9 Utah Jazz -3.89 -6.32 2.43
10 Los Angeles Clippers 4.73 2.82 1.90
11 Portland Trail Blazers -0.04 -1.88 1.83
12 Washington Wizards 1.54 0.17 1.36
13 Miami Heat -5.18 -6.18 1.00
14 New Orleans Pelicans 6.92 5.98 0.94
15 Charlotte Hornets 1.87 1.04 0.84
16 Indiana Pacers -0.60 -1.21 0.61
17 Denver Nuggets 2.69 2.30 0.38
18 Milwaukee Bucks -2.20 -1.50 -0.71
19 Los Angeles Lakers 1.97 2.96 -0.99
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.96 5.32 -1.36
21 Detroit Pistons -2.78 -1.29 -1.49
22 Dallas Mavericks -3.49 -0.91 -2.58
23 New York Knicks -1.76 1.84 -3.60
24 Orlando Magic -0.66 3.55 -4.22
25 Brooklyn Nets -2.27 2.78 -5.05
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.76 1.29 -5.05
27 Memphis Grizzlies -8.34 -2.56 -5.78
28 Chicago Bulls -1.32 4.94 -6.26
29 Sacramento Kings -6.06 1.31 -7.37
30 Phoenix Suns -2.95 6.59 -9.53

February 24, 2018

NBA Ratings February 24

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:48 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Toronto Raptors 6.77 -1.83 8.60
2 Houston Rockets 6.54 -1.46 8.00
3 Golden State Warriors 9.93 3.35 6.58
4 Philadelphia 76ers 1.15 -3.04 4.19
5 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.92 -1.69 3.61
6 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.20 -0.39 3.59
7 San Antonio Spurs -3.90 -6.71 2.81
8 Utah Jazz -2.82 -5.53 2.71
9 Boston Celtics -4.23 -6.87 2.63
10 Los Angeles Clippers 5.16 3.13 2.04
11 Portland Trail Blazers -0.04 -1.86 1.82
12 Indiana Pacers -0.16 -1.35 1.19
13 Charlotte Hornets 1.48 0.37 1.11
14 Washington Wizards 2.13 1.05 1.08
15 New Orleans Pelicans 5.82 5.20 0.62
16 Miami Heat -5.59 -6.09 0.50
17 Denver Nuggets 2.28 1.87 0.41
18 Milwaukee Bucks -1.82 -2.11 0.29
19 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.93 4.72 -0.80
20 Detroit Pistons -2.36 -1.09 -1.27
21 Los Angeles Lakers 1.40 3.13 -1.72
22 Dallas Mavericks -3.74 -0.69 -3.05
23 New York Knicks -2.13 1.15 -3.28
24 Orlando Magic -0.64 3.54 -4.17
25 Memphis Grizzlies -8.30 -3.69 -4.62
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.54 1.11 -4.64
27 Chicago Bulls -0.43 5.02 -5.44
28 Brooklyn Nets -2.36 3.18 -5.54
29 Sacramento Kings -6.09 0.71 -6.80
30 Phoenix Suns -3.56 6.88 -10.44

February 15, 2018

NBA Ratings Feb 15

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:59 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Toronto Raptors 6.68 -2.03 8.72
2 Houston Rockets 7.35 -0.60 7.95
3 Golden State Warriors 9.83 2.93 6.89
4 Philadelphia 76ers 1.49 -3.13 4.61
5 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.53 -0.27 3.80
6 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.63 -2.09 3.72
7 Utah Jazz -1.31 -4.98 3.68
8 San Antonio Spurs -4.21 -7.08 2.87
9 Boston Celtics -4.82 -7.51 2.69
10 Los Angeles Clippers 3.55 2.02 1.54
11 Washington Wizards 2.46 0.93 1.53
12 Portland Trail Blazers -0.06 -0.82 0.76
13 Indiana Pacers -0.11 -0.71 0.60
14 Milwaukee Bucks -2.87 -3.15 0.28
15 Miami Heat -6.25 -6.49 0.25
16 New Orleans Pelicans 4.61 4.43 0.18
17 Charlotte Hornets 1.61 1.53 0.08
18 Denver Nuggets 0.83 0.97 -0.14
19 Detroit Pistons -1.92 -1.05 -0.86
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 4.40 5.72 -1.32
21 Los Angeles Lakers 0.78 2.53 -1.75
22 Dallas Mavericks -3.27 -0.79 -2.49
23 New York Knicks -2.36 1.06 -3.42
24 Memphis Grizzlies -7.77 -4.11 -3.66
25 Orlando Magic -0.30 3.55 -3.85
26 Atlanta Hawks -2.77 1.42 -4.20
27 Chicago Bulls -0.13 5.10 -5.23
28 Brooklyn Nets -1.53 3.73 -5.27
29 Sacramento Kings -5.56 1.80 -7.35
30 Phoenix Suns -3.53 7.08 -10.61

February 10, 2018

NBA Ratings February 10

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:26 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Toronto Raptors 6.45 -1.78 8.23
2 Houston Rockets 7.40 -0.21 7.60
3 Golden State Warriors 9.40 4.01 5.39
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.92 -0.77 4.69
5 Philadelphia 76ers 1.76 -2.38 4.14
6 Boston Celtics -4.33 -8.08 3.75
7 San Antonio Spurs -4.47 -7.93 3.46
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.69 -1.70 3.40
9 Utah Jazz -1.69 -4.60 2.91
10 Portland Trail Blazers 0.43 -1.06 1.49
11 Los Angeles Clippers 3.89 2.56 1.33
12 Washington Wizards 3.04 1.73 1.31
13 Indiana Pacers -0.38 -1.15 0.77
14 Charlotte Hornets 1.97 1.41 0.56
15 Miami Heat -6.08 -6.37 0.29
16 Milwaukee Bucks -2.64 -2.87 0.22
17 Detroit Pistons -1.93 -1.85 -0.08
18 Denver Nuggets -0.04 0.58 -0.62
19 New Orleans Pelicans 3.38 4.12 -0.74
20 Los Angeles Lakers 0.25 1.77 -1.52
21 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.84 6.18 -2.34
22 Dallas Mavericks -4.03 -1.55 -2.48
23 New York Knicks -2.26 0.88 -3.15
24 Memphis Grizzlies -7.45 -3.99 -3.47
25 Orlando Magic 0.23 3.78 -3.55
26 Atlanta Hawks -2.79 1.51 -4.30
27 Brooklyn Nets -1.61 2.92 -4.53
28 Chicago Bulls 1.02 6.09 -5.07
29 Sacramento Kings -6.26 1.95 -8.21
30 Phoenix Suns -2.70 6.78 -9.48

February 7, 2018

NBA Ratings Feb 7

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:28 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Toronto Raptors 6.49 -1.34 7.82
2 Houston Rockets 6.65 -0.20 6.85
3 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.05 -2.17 5.23
4 Golden State Warriors 9.16 4.08 5.08
5 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.65 -1.73 4.38
6 Boston Celtics -4.35 -8.24 3.88
7 Philadelphia 76ers 2.26 -1.39 3.65
8 Utah Jazz -1.38 -4.06 2.68
9 San Antonio Spurs -5.33 -7.40 2.07
10 Washington Wizards 2.82 1.20 1.61
11 Portland Trail Blazers 0.09 -0.96 1.05
12 Charlotte Hornets 2.35 1.35 1.00
13 Los Angeles Clippers 3.83 3.01 0.82
14 Detroit Pistons -1.73 -2.09 0.36
15 Milwaukee Bucks -2.27 -2.60 0.34
16 Miami Heat -5.85 -6.17 0.32
17 Indiana Pacers -0.42 -0.72 0.31
18 Denver Nuggets -0.06 -0.08 0.02
19 New Orleans Pelicans 4.42 4.64 -0.22
20 Dallas Mavericks -4.02 -1.84 -2.17
21 Los Angeles Lakers 0.30 2.70 -2.40
22 New York Knicks -1.84 0.88 -2.72
23 Cleveland Cavaliers 1.98 5.32 -3.34
24 Memphis Grizzlies -7.26 -3.84 -3.42
25 Orlando Magic 0.71 4.29 -3.59
26 Atlanta Hawks -2.38 1.32 -3.70
27 Brooklyn Nets -1.83 2.63 -4.46
28 Chicago Bulls 0.58 6.03 -5.45
29 Sacramento Kings -6.43 1.46 -7.89
30 Phoenix Suns -2.20 5.93 -8.13

February 3, 2018

NBA Ratings Feb 3

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:27 pm
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Toronto Raptors 6.57 -0.67 7.23
2 Golden State Warriors 9.60 3.35 6.26
3 Houston Rockets 6.18 0.25 5.93
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 2.90 -2.26 5.16
5 Boston Celtics -3.89 -8.59 4.71
6 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.35 -1.50 3.84
7 Philadelphia 76ers 2.65 -0.98 3.63
8 San Antonio Spurs -6.01 -8.47 2.46
9 Charlotte Hornets 2.26 0.75 1.51
10 Portland Trail Blazers 0.39 -1.05 1.44
11 Utah Jazz -3.45 -4.71 1.26
12 Los Angeles Clippers 4.26 3.26 1.01
13 New Orleans Pelicans 4.27 3.36 0.91
14 Washington Wizards 2.51 1.72 0.79
15 Miami Heat -6.46 -7.13 0.67
16 Indiana Pacers 0.06 -0.45 0.50
17 Detroit Pistons -2.45 -2.17 -0.28
18 Milwaukee Bucks -2.48 -1.85 -0.63
19 Denver Nuggets -0.59 0.25 -0.83
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.37 5.14 -1.77
21 New York Knicks -0.78 1.09 -1.87
22 Memphis Grizzlies -6.19 -3.81 -2.38
23 Dallas Mavericks -4.07 -1.65 -2.43
24 Los Angeles Lakers 0.12 3.35 -3.23
25 Orlando Magic 0.54 4.50 -3.97
26 Brooklyn Nets -1.90 2.11 -4.01
27 Atlanta Hawks -2.48 2.38 -4.86
28 Chicago Bulls 0.99 6.24 -5.25
29 Sacramento Kings -6.21 1.63 -7.83
30 Phoenix Suns -2.04 5.92 -7.96

January 31, 2018

NBA Ratings Jan 31

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:29 am
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Toronto Raptors 5.74 -1.19 6.93
2 Golden State Warriors 9.47 3.44 6.03
3 Houston Rockets 6.30 0.78 5.51
4 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.35 -2.49 4.84
5 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.09 -1.74 4.83
6 Philadelphia 76ers 2.89 -1.36 4.24
7 Boston Celtics -4.28 -8.24 3.96
8 San Antonio Spurs -5.38 -8.35 2.97
9 Portland Trail Blazers 0.14 -1.76 1.90
10 Charlotte Hornets 0.74 -0.29 1.03
11 Los Angeles Clippers 4.43 3.46 0.97
12 Indiana Pacers -0.82 -1.53 0.71
13 Miami Heat -5.78 -6.40 0.62
14 Washington Wizards 2.11 1.57 0.54
15 Utah Jazz -4.19 -4.36 0.17
16 New Orleans Pelicans 4.13 4.08 0.04
17 Milwaukee Bucks -1.20 -1.04 -0.16
18 Detroit Pistons -2.47 -2.28 -0.20
19 Denver Nuggets -1.30 -0.33 -0.98
20 New York Knicks 0.57 1.85 -1.28
21 Dallas Mavericks -3.13 -1.37 -1.76
22 Cleveland Cavaliers 4.13 6.03 -1.90
23 Memphis Grizzlies -6.50 -3.94 -2.56
24 Los Angeles Lakers 0.71 3.31 -2.60
25 Brooklyn Nets -1.87 2.44 -4.31
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.10 1.55 -4.65
27 Orlando Magic -0.16 4.70 -4.85
28 Chicago Bulls 0.97 5.87 -4.90
29 Phoenix Suns -1.59 5.88 -7.47
30 Sacramento Kings -6.00 1.68 -7.68

January 27, 2018

NBA Ratings Jan 27

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 12:17 pm
Rank Team Offense Defense Rating
1 Golden State Warriors 9.81 2.40 7.41
2 Toronto Raptors 5.67 -1.36 7.03
3 Houston Rockets 6.88 0.80 6.08
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.66 -1.51 5.17
5 Philadelphia 76ers 3.38 -1.77 5.15
6 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.57 -2.78 4.35
7 Boston Celtics -4.82 -8.87 4.05
8 San Antonio Spurs -5.83 -8.96 3.13
9 Portland Trail Blazers 0.38 -1.24 1.62
10 New Orleans Pelicans 5.17 3.72 1.45
11 Charlotte Hornets 1.41 0.24 1.18
12 Los Angeles Clippers 5.28 4.37 0.91
13 Detroit Pistons -3.21 -3.92 0.72
14 Indiana Pacers -0.78 -1.43 0.65
15 Miami Heat -5.45 -5.61 0.16
16 Washington Wizards 1.49 2.26 -0.77
17 Denver Nuggets -1.52 -0.36 -1.16
18 Utah Jazz -5.08 -3.88 -1.19
19 Milwaukee Bucks -1.29 -0.04 -1.25
20 Dallas Mavericks -2.12 -0.66 -1.46
21 New York Knicks 0.67 2.19 -1.53
22 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.35 5.72 -2.38
23 Los Angeles Lakers 0.56 3.11 -2.56
24 Memphis Grizzlies -7.04 -4.47 -2.57
25 Brooklyn Nets -1.19 2.78 -3.97
26 Atlanta Hawks -3.11 1.11 -4.22
27 Chicago Bulls 1.52 5.87 -4.34
28 Orlando Magic -0.63 4.87 -5.51
29 Phoenix Suns -1.92 5.64 -7.56
30 Sacramento Kings -6.81 1.78 -8.59
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