September 8, 2010

World Basketball Championship Power Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:21 am

Now that the first eight games of the knockout round are complete we can come up with some reasonable power ratings for the World Baksetball Championship. For example, USA is 30.11 points better than average; 21.74 points better than average on offense and 8.37 points better than average on defense. Running through the final round of 8 teams 10,000 times USA wins 85% of the time, Turkey 13% and the other six teams a total of 2% of the time.

Team offense defense overall
USA 21.74 -8.37 30.11
Turkey 5.66 -15.08 20.74
Slovenia 8.90 -4.73 13.63
Brazil 8.60 -4.72 13.32
Serbia 8.26 -1.39 9.65
Russia -2.97 -11.49 8.52
Spain 5.73 -2.22 7.95
Greece 5.55 -2.09 7.64
Croatia 7.00 -0.09 7.09
Lithuania -1.45 -5.75 4.31
Puerto Rico 4.78 3.85 0.92
Argentina 4.66 4.41 0.26
France -4.22 -2.90 -1.32
New Zealand 5.58 7.51 -1.92
Iran -11.81 -9.64 -2.17
Australia -7.97 -4.41 -3.56
China -0.44 6.44 -6.88
Tunisia -10.36 -1.35 -9.00
Ivory Coast -5.39 5.02 -10.41
Canada -11.87 0.30 -12.16
Germany -5.26 7.00 -12.25
Lebanon -7.45 13.38 -20.83
Angola -10.31 10.89 -21.20
Jordan -6.96 15.46 -22.42

6 Comments »

  1. Don’t these number make you feel a little uncomfortable given that Argentina ended up being so low?

    Comment by nick — September 8, 2010 @ 12:30 pm

  2. good point but they played badly in many of the preliminary games.

    Comment by wwinston — September 8, 2010 @ 1:11 pm

  3. [...] the game, Wayne Winston ranked Turkey as the second-best team in the tournament to date and Slovenia third (Team USA is [...]

    Pingback by Hedo Turkoglu, Turkey knock out Goran Dragic, Slovenia to reach World Championship semifinals | Valley of the Suns — September 8, 2010 @ 9:13 pm

  4. hallo,
    prof winston where do you get the data from to making these predictions and what are the formulas for doing this. do you publish this or is this proprietary?
    greetings,
    s.

    Comment by stephen — September 10, 2010 @ 6:36 pm

  5. data is on espn.com or cnnsi.com. formulas and method are in my Mathletics book

    Comment by wwinston — September 10, 2010 @ 8:59 pm

  6. They did not do so well next game; Bookies favored them but ratings had Lith.

    Comment by wwinston — September 10, 2010 @ 10:18 pm

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