July 23, 2010

Revised Heat Forecast

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:04 pm

The Heat have pretty much filled out their roster. I assumed that players play the same number of minutes as they did last year and play at the same Adjusted +/- level of performance as last year, I predict 66-16 for the Heat.


  1. wow, last year the Lakers reached only 57 wins. But i dont think that the Big 3 fit as well together as the Big 3 in Boston.

    Comment by david — July 25, 2010 @ 6:03 am

  2. 66 wins seems like a reasonable (perhaps slightly optimistic projection). I would say somewhere between 61 and 66. That would put them right where the 2008-09 and 2009-10 Cavs finished and both teams didn’t even make the conference finals!

    Comment by Walter — July 26, 2010 @ 6:35 pm

  3. Cavs make confrence finals in 09…

    Comment by zeebo — July 26, 2010 @ 7:10 pm

  4. Walter,

    Just as the 66-win Cavs were vastly different from the 66-win Celtics the year before, so would a 66-win Heat this year be vastly different from that Cavs team. For starters, come playoff time, Wade is a proven performer, where Mo Williams is the opposite. And the third and fourth options are Chris Bosh and Mike Miller, far better than that team had.

    Anyway, the interesting thing to me is how this team ranks defensively. Obviously they’ll put up points, since double teams won’t really work (any of the Big 3 will shred single coverage, and Miller will punish teams that leave him open), but the big question is whether they’ll be able to at least replicate the defensive success of last year’s Heat.

    Then again, Bosh is a better defender than Beasley, LeBron better than Q-Rich. Anthony versus J.O. is probably close to a wash. Not saying any of these guys are elite defenders, but if they somehow got it to work last year, the team defense this year can definitely be greater than the sum of its parts. The Big 3 will at least have more energy to exert on that end.

    Comment by Joe — July 26, 2010 @ 8:20 pm

  5. I’d like to bet UNDER 66 wins on the Heat…

    Comment by Daniel Song — July 26, 2010 @ 8:48 pm

  6. 66 wins and lose to the Celtics in 6 when they will meet in the Eastern conference semi.

    Comment by Shaqi — July 26, 2010 @ 9:07 pm

  7. 2008 Celtics, 66 wins with defense.
    2009 Cavs, 66 wins with offense.
    2010 Cavs, 61 wins with offense.
    2011 Heats has the offense and no proven defense

    Steve Nash and the Suns will be your judge on this matter.

    Comment by Shaqi — July 26, 2010 @ 9:10 pm

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