July 11, 2010

World Cup Final Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:45 pm

I am so sorry Holland lost! Oh well there is always 2014 for USA and Holland. Here are final ratings based on 3 years of scores. I switched to multiplicative ratings, because they fit the data a little better. So Spain is number 1 and they are 60% better than average on offense and give up an amazing 26% as many goals as an average World Cup team. Spain against an average World Cup Team would be favored by 1.73 goals.

 

Rank Team off def Rating
1 SPAIN 1.600491 0.263129 1.725197
2 GERMANY 1.919907 0.642235 1.648196
3 BRAZIL 1.62212 0.586247 1.336277
4 ARGENTINA 1.629185 0.726732 1.164165
5 PORTUGAL 1.738073 0.863527 1.128164
6 NETHERLANDS 1.490696 0.70737 1.01049
7 ENGLAND 1.255286 0.884191 0.478713
8 URUGUAY 1.454914 1.173513 0.363007
9 Ghana 1.074044 0.846387 0.293678
11 SERBIA 1.005404 0.812412 0.24896
10 USA 1.319989 1.147684 0.222274
12 SLOVENIA 1.118327 0.970938 0.190132
13 NIGERIA 0.936766 0.856503 0.10354
15 PARAGUAY 0.627982 0.579474 0.062575
14 IVORY COAST 1.096652 1.086852 0.012642
16 JAPAN 0.90484 0.915593 -0.01387
17 ITALY 0.987418 1.055464 -0.08778
18 MEXICO 1.04973 1.128346 -0.10141
19 FRANCE 0.755251 0.852958 -0.12604
20 AUSTRALIA 1.02993 1.177421 -0.19026
21 CHILE 0.865393 1.133278 -0.34557
22 DENMARK 0.975721 1.274835 -0.38586
23 SWITZERLAND 0.707354 1.056961 -0.45099
24 Algeria 0.500465 0.893977 -0.50763
25 S AFRICA 0.817119 1.256286 -0.56653
27 GREECE 0.656337 1.14963 -0.63635
26 CAMEROON 0.748367 1.249829 -0.64689
28 HONDURAS -0.58351 -0.07734 -0.65295
29 SOUTH KOREA 0.768098 1.311454 -0.70093
30 SLOVAKIA 0.891648 1.455771 -0.72772
31 NEW ZEALAND 0.623655 1.763189 -1.47
32 NORTH Korea 0.412345 2.255155 -2.37722

5 Comments »

  1. But what were the talent-adjusted chances of Paul the Octopus going 8-for-8 (besides 1-in-256)?

    Comment by Hugh — July 11, 2010 @ 8:15 pm

  2. I’m surprised Spain’s offense is rated that much higher than average, considering they just set the record for fewest goals by champion.

    Comment by Geoff — July 12, 2010 @ 2:17 am

  3. :-D @Hugh

    Your rating fits with my personal opinion. Spainalways has great talent in their team, but Germany and the Nethelands have chances to get the pole position the next years.

    Comment by david — July 12, 2010 @ 5:43 am

  4. USA is 10 and Serbia 11?

    Comment by vanjulio — July 15, 2010 @ 9:29 am

  5. Yes wit hmultiplicative. In order method they come out 14. Remember they beat Germany.

    Comment by wwinston — July 16, 2010 @ 2:19 pm

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