Well LeBron, Bosh and wade are on the Heat. Are the Heat a lock to win the NBA title. Let’s try and figure out how good this team will be next year. Based on our Adjusted +/- Ratings we project for 2010-2011 (all player ratings are per 48 minutes.)
- Wade and LeBron each play 11 points better than average. Assume 36 minutes each (most guys get hurt a few games)
- Bosh will play 5 points better than average . 36 minutes
- Chalmer 4 points worse than average. 24 minutes
- Beasley 4 points worse than average. 30 minutes
- The key is in remaining 78 minutes how well will rest of roster play. Let’s try out 2 points thru 6 points worse than average.
Here are projected wins:
|Average Ability||Projected Wins|
|Rest of team||Wins|
To me the most likely case is rest of roster plays like Chalmers and Beasley (-4). Then we project 63-19 record for Heat which is probably a team good enough to win the East and play the Lakers in a great 7 game series.