July 8, 2010

Are the Heat a Lock?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:40 pm

Well LeBron, Bosh and wade are on the Heat. Are the Heat a lock to win the NBA title. Let’s try and figure out how good this team will be next year. Based on our Adjusted +/- Ratings we project for 2010-2011 (all player ratings are per 48 minutes.)

  • Wade and LeBron each play 11 points better than average. Assume 36 minutes each (most guys get hurt a few games)
  • Bosh will play 5 points better than average . 36 minutes
  • Chalmer 4 points worse than average. 24 minutes
  • Beasley 4 points worse than average. 30 minutes
  • The key is in remaining 78 minutes how well will rest of roster play. Let’s try out 2 points thru 6 points worse than average.

Here are projected wins:

Average Ability Projected Wins
Rest of team Wins
-2 68
-3 66
-4 63
-5 59
-6 56

To me the most likely case is rest of roster plays like Chalmers and  Beasley (-4). Then we project 63-19 record for Heat which is probably a team good enough to win the East and play the Lakers in a great 7 game series.


  1. But Wayne do they even get past the Bulls now that they have Boozer or an older Celtics team minus Wallace. 2 Superstars, 1 All Star that would on the bench (Bosch), and a cast of NBA dregs (remember everyone has to get their before next years lockout). I don’t think all three especially with the minutes they will play are maybe the third best team in the East.

    Best Tweet of the Night: To be called a king you must lead, not follow…

    Comment by Grant Case — July 8, 2010 @ 10:53 pm

  2. these stats don’t apply when these players are combined on 1 team. their margin of performance above the avg will decline. look at the numbers of Boston’s big 3 on their championship year. All 3 had lower stats. It was through teamwork that they were able to sacrifice their personal glory for a championship. Are the Heat capable of this? Depends on entirely on how Stern tells his refs to call the games for the 3 allstars.

    Comment by vanjulio — July 9, 2010 @ 3:49 pm

  3. I agree. I reduced the abilities of James and Wade from what our ratings had.

    Comment by wwinston — July 9, 2010 @ 6:26 pm

  4. Boozer is overrated in my opinion Jazz were much better when Millsap played

    Comment by wwinston — July 9, 2010 @ 6:27 pm

  5. I remember vividly Boozer in Cleveland and Duke. Never was a fan

    Comment by grizzvan — July 11, 2010 @ 9:27 am

  6. Sorry to take this thread off topic, but I was wondering if you would weigh in a debate in NY over whether Amare has performed better than David Lee?

    Comment by Italian Stallion — July 16, 2010 @ 10:52 am

  7. Amare was an average player; Lee a little worse than average. Turiaf is a great defender and Randolph could develop into a solid player. Felton is a good point guard. I think Wizards and Knicks fight it out for #8.

    Comment by wwinston — July 16, 2010 @ 2:19 pm

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