June 25, 2010

World Cup Odds and Ratings; June 26 Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 4:26 pm

Using the Palisades add in @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation here are chances each team wins the World Cup. For example, Brazil has a 23% chance of winning. We estimate Brazil is .92 goals better than average on offense and .60 goals better than average on defense.

Team Prob Off Def Rating
BRAZIL 0.230 0.918 -0.598 1.516
ARGENTINA 0.185 0.624 -0.787 1.411
SPAIN 0.127 0.787 -0.540 1.327
NETHERLANDS 0.120 0.479 -0.544 1.023
URUGUAY 0.072 0.384 -0.336 0.720
GERMANY 0.063 0.419 -0.476 0.896
ENGLAND 0.060 0.239 -0.679 0.917
PORTUGAL 0.039 0.547 -0.196 0.743
USA 0.035 0.486 0.121 0.365
MEXICO 0.015 0.213 -0.179 0.392
JAPAN 0.013 -0.133 -0.225 0.092
PARAGUAY 0.013 -0.254 -0.478 0.224
Ghana 0.011 -0.006 0.015 -0.021
SOUTH KOREA 0.007 -0.056 0.041 -0.098
CHILE 0.007 -0.037 -0.198 0.161
SLOVAKIA 0.002 -0.112 0.524 -0.636

 

For tomorrow I pick US 2 Ghana 1 and Uruguay 2 South Korea 1!

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