June 19, 2010

World Cup Picks June 20

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:49 pm

PARAGUAY 2 SLOVAKIA 0

ITALY 2 NEW ZEALAND 1

BRAZIL 3 IVORY COAST 1

2 Comments »

  1. Hey Mr. Winston, I’ve been enjoying your World Cup Picks. I was hoping you could comment on how much harder it is to predict games in a sport that has so little scoring — it would seem that basically means less chances for the dominant team to assert itself and more chances for a fluke by the weaker team to produce an upset (be it a draw or an outright win). Do you think that’s the case, and is there any way to take that into account statistically?

    Comment by SoccerFan — June 20, 2010 @ 1:44 pm

  2. I just assume outcome of each game follows a Poisson random variable. The standard deviation of prediction accuaracy for say a 1-1 pick is 1 goal for each team so picks are less accurate than in fotball where sigma is say 14 points for a 20 point predicted score. Still chance of an upset can be accurately computed but you will see many more of them in soccer.

    Comment by wwinston — June 20, 2010 @ 10:20 pm

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