June 16, 2010

World Cup Predictions

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:52 pm

Had to work today so I missed Switzerland’s great upset. I calculate that the Swiss had around a 3% chance to win that game. Here are predicted scores for June 17.

  1. Argentina 1 South Korea 0
  2. Nigeria 1 Greece 0
  3. France 1 Mexico 1

2 Comments »

  1. Firstly, congratulations on producing a fascinating book. I have some soccer based questions for you. Firstly, in your World Cup predictions, what level of home edge rating have you factored in for South Africa? Would you use the same home edge in all soccer predictions, or would the value be dependent on the competition (eg, a different edge for international matches, versus the Champions league or the English premier league). Secondly, do you know what standard deviation value should be used when trying to predict whether a soccer team will cover a goals spread?

    Comment by James Ross — June 17, 2010 @ 5:58 pm

  2. I assume score of game is poisson so sigma = mean for game. I did not give South Africa a home edge. Probably should have.

    Comment by wwinston — June 17, 2010 @ 9:32 pm

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