May 29, 2010

Redick vs. Barnes

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 4:38 am

The Magic have themslves to blame for losing this series. For the 6 games when Barnes was in without Redick against Rondo, Ray Allen and Pierce   (RAP) the Magic were down 57 points in 90 minutes. When Redick was in and Barnes out against RAP the Magic were +19  points in 61 minutes, Game 6 was no different: Barnes in against RAR -9 points in 16 minutes, Redick in +3 points in 15 minutes. This was obvious after 2 games:

  • Game 1 Redick in +3, Barnes in -9 against RAP
  • Game 2 Redick in +10, Barnes in -13 against RAP.


  1. Wayne, whilst I have no reason to doubt the compilation of the numbers (and indeed, having watched this series, Orlando did appear to be better when Redick was in) I dont understand how you can be so forthright in your conclusions on such a small data size and with question marks over causality.

    For example, is it possible Barnes fared worst against “RAP” as he played more minutes at the start of each game when the (older) Boston players in question were at their most fresh? Again, this is only a theory of mine and doesnt mean its true but it certainly plausible. And its by no means the only alternative to explain your numbers without reaching your conclusion.

    Maybe Im being unfair on you here, but it appears from this post that you’re effectively saying “If Orlando plays Redick instead of Barnes, Orlando win the series. Because they didnt, they only have themselves to blame.”

    If my impression of what you’re trying to say here is correct, then I must say I find it difficult to accept such a definitive conclusion and insight on such seemingly small (and possibly circumstantial) data. Especially as it wasnt long ago you were predicting Orlando would win the Championship this season based off your data which would be considerably more voluminous then that derived from the Eastern Conference Finals.

    Comment by JP — June 1, 2010 @ 6:05 pm

  2. Couldn’t have said it any better, JP.

    Comment by Statcenter — June 1, 2010 @ 6:58 pm

  3. The Magic starting lineup got destroyed and most of the time Redick went in things went well. Given the series result I think it is hard to argue that things would have gone worse if Redick played more and Barnes played less. Adm9ittedly the data set s small, but in our experience with the Mavs reacting to two games of data in the playoffs helped much more than it hurt.

    Comment by wwinston — June 3, 2010 @ 12:07 am

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