May 27, 2010

Game 5 Analysis: Celtics Magic

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:52 am

The Magic are in position to become  the first NBA team to win a playoff series after being down 3-0. I think they will “Get Her Done” as Coach Chandler would say on TV’s best show: Friday Night Lights. The Magic coaching staff has finally figured out the key adjustments that need to be made.

  1. All series we have pointed out that Redick has been much more effective than Barnes against the Ray Allen, Rondo, Pierce (ARP) trio. With Barnes in and Redick out the Magic are -46 points in 74 minutes  against ARP. Thankfully, in Game 5 Barnes was +4 against ARP.
  2. Redick in and Barnes out against ARP is a winner (+26 points in 51 minutes). Play him more against this Celtic trio!!
  3. A real key has been that the Magic have figured out a good way to rest Jameer Nelson. Pietrus, Redick, Lewis and Williams in is +12 points in 30 minutes but the other times Williams is in for Nelson the Magic are -22 points in 30 minutes. If the Magic always rest Nelson with this quartet this may make the difference in a close game.
  4. Brandon Bass has emerged as a key performer. When Bass is in against KG , he does poorly (13 min -4 points). But with KG out and Bass in the Magic are +9 points in 16 minutes.

Adjusted +/- Ratings for the Series

We have Adjusted +/- ratings for each player in the series. The key numbers are that Barnes has a -17 points Adjusted +/- and Redick a +13 Adjusted +/-. This means that our best estimate is that Redick has played 13 points better than an average NBA player per 48 minutes in this series (after adjusting for who he playedwith and against. For the Celtics Ray Allen has an Adjusted +/- of +17.

    We also have an IMPACT rating (on a scale of -100 to +100) that meausres how a player changes the chance of his team winning the game.  IMPACT rating minimizes the importance of garbage time. Redick has a +45% IMPACT, Barnes a -72% IMPACT and Ray Allen +46% IMPACT.  Again these numbers confirm that Barnes has really killed the Magic and Redick has keyed their success. Perhaps this is because Redick does a good defensive job on Ray Allen.


  1. I haven’t been keeping up with this series as well as the Lakers-Suns, but something tells me that the veteran guile of the Celtics will pull them to the finals tonight. My guess is they will focus on getting rid of Dwight, lots of flopping and making him frustrated, then shutting down Jameer and forcing Vince to step up as the playmaker. And Vince is notorious for disappearing in big games when the pressure is on him. Score- Boston 94-Orlando 89.

    Comment by Derek — May 28, 2010 @ 4:20 pm

  2. Friday Night Lights has been my nightime favorite show.,”

    Comment by Brianna Lee — June 30, 2010 @ 1:00 am

  3. the cast of Friday Night Lights are very sexy, i like the girls ,.

    Comment by Finley Mitchell — September 1, 2010 @ 5:42 am

  4. Friday Night Lights is the favorite show of my sister because she likes the actor a lot’`-

    Comment by Pine Wardrobe ` — October 11, 2010 @ 3:54 pm

  5. I agree. The show is wonderful. You might also like Mad Men

    Comment by wwinston — December 16, 2010 @ 5:51 pm

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