May 24, 2010

The Suns are Rising!

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:53 am

Congrats to the Suns for a great back against the wall performance. Looking at the lineup data from the first 3 games, I am convinced the Suns can hold home court, and perhaps take the series. Here are some key points:

  • With Gasol and Odom on the court the Suns are down 30 points in 86 minutes. The rest of the time the Suns are +6 points.
  • Most of the damage with Gasol and Odom on the court is with either Frye in (30 minutes, -35 points) or Dragic in without Lopez (22 minutes, -28 points.) The Suns need to avoid these situations.
  • The Suns have several good combos to use against Gasol and Odom: JR, Nash, Amare and Hill with Dudley or Lopez is +16 points in 33 minutes.
  • Also Dragic, Lopez, Barbosa with two of Amundsen, JR, Amare and Dudley is +6 points in 4 minutes. Not much data here, but still useful info.
  • The lineup of Brown, Farmar, Artest, Gasol and Odom is +11 points against Suns. But with Lopez in, the Suns beat this lineup by 4 points in 3 minutes. This means with Lopez out this Kobeless lineup beats Suns by 15 points in 7 minutes!

Adjusted +/- Ratings thru Three Games

While still noisy, our Adjusted +/- and Impact Ratings so far in the series tell us a lot.

  • Frye (-21 points -69% Impact), Barbosa (-14 points(-21% Impact) and Amundsen ( -28 points, -80% Impact) have killed Suns. Dragic (-16 points, -47% impact) has also hurt, but I think playing Lpez with him will solve this problem,
  • Lopez (+12 points, +31% Impact) is the Suns X Factor!! Keep him out there 30-36 minutes if possible.

Given this info I would try and allocate minutes as follows:

Nash, JR , Amare, Hill, and Lopez 36 minutes

Dragic 12 minutes

Dudley 30 minutes (In the 35 minutes Dudley is in without Frye the Suns are +5 points, so he should get more of Frye’s minutes.)

Amundsen, Frye and Barbosa 18 minutes (Give the time in the 2nd half to whoever does the job in first half!)

For the Lakers Bynum (-12 points rating, -40% Impact) has killed them while Bryant (+13 points), Brown (+14 points) and Farmar (+15 points) have been big contributors.

I think with a shortening of the rotation and adroit subsitutions the Suns have a shot!

3 Comments »

  1. I don’t. The zone isn’t going to work forever against the Lakers. And then where will Phoenix be without such a foul-shooting disparity? (Just FYI, I think that disparity was fair, considering how aggressive the Suns were.)

    Comment by greenpaz — May 24, 2010 @ 5:37 pm

  2. @greenpaz, the Suns were 5/20, or 25% on three point shooting in game 3. If the Suns don’t attack the basket as much, they’ll be passing the ball to the perimeter for more open looks which will increase their 3pt shooting %. If FTs decrease, 3ptrs will increase. And besides, Bynum is completely ineffective and is getting in worse condition every day which means the Lakers cannot afford to foul Amar’e or Lopez (oh right, the Lakers have DJ Mbenga, quite the replacement for Bynum). Since Gasol and Odom will play soft D, Amar’e will get his points in the paint either way – for the rest of the series.

    It will be a close one.

    Comment by jcuki5 — May 24, 2010 @ 10:29 pm

  3. [...] after taking a look at Wayne Winston’s numbers, that isn’t so far from the [...]

    Pingback by Robin Lopez: The Suns' X-factor| Valley of the Suns — May 25, 2010 @ 3:47 am

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