May 20, 2010

Suns Lakers Analysis through 2

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 12:50 pm

Looks like the Suns backs are against the wall. They play much better at home , but the Odom Gasol duo has killed Suns, especially with Frye in. Let’s look at the situation.

Here are key facts.

1.  1. Odom Gasol in 53 min Suns down 37 pts. Rest of time Suns +4.

2.  Dragic JR Barbosa Lopez Amundsen 1 min +4 pts.

3.   Dudley Nash Hill JR and Amare +10 pts in 12 minutes.

4.  So ignoring 2 and 3 Odom and Gasol in 40 min -51 pts.

5.  Frye in against Odom and Gasol -26 pts 18 minutes.

6.  Dragic without Dudley -11 pts 15 minutes. Dragic with Dudley -1 pt in 21 minutes.

So maybe start Frye  so he does not face  Odom Gasol and keep lineups 2 and 3 out there as much as possible.

Keep Dudley on court as much as possible. Hope they do this or there is almost no hope, in my opinion.



  1. You’re using a 1-minute stretch to draw any conclusions about how effective a unit is playing together?! At what point in the games did they play that unit? Who was on the court for the Lakers at the time? Have they used it before during the season, and if so, how effective was it?

    Frye 3-pt: 1 for, what is it, 13?
    Dudley 3-pt: 5 for 5 in Gm 2.

    So, yeah, maybe they should play Dudley a bit more than Frye. And then there’s Dudley’s superior defense and rebounding, too.

    Although Frye tends to play better at home, so they should give him one more chance in Gm 3 to show that he deserves any PT at all in the rest of the series.

    Comment by Malcolm — May 20, 2010 @ 10:24 pm

  2. [...] traded e-mails with former Mavs stat guru Wayne Winston on Thursday (who’s also writing about the series on his site) to try to get a handle on what [...]

    Pingback by Why small ball could save this series for the Phoenix Suns| Valley of the Suns — May 21, 2010 @ 4:03 am

  3. If Bynum plays more and Odom less Suns have made a big breakthrough! Frye could spread floor and get his open 3′s against Gasol Bynum, but Odom closes out much better on 3′s.

    Comment by wwinston — May 21, 2010 @ 6:40 am

  4. Pretty much confirms what I saw with my own eyes. If Channing Frye isn’t hitting a very high percentage of threes he is worthless on the court because he plays like a 6’6 guy not a center. He is a poor rebounder and an invisible presence on D in the interior. Those things are killer against the length and inside scoring of the Lakers. The main story of this series is how easily the Lakers score within 15 feet of the basket while the Suns have to score on much more difficult long shots. I would give him one more sustained shot in the first half of game thee and if he doesn’t do anything I basically would deep six him for the rest of the series.

    Comment by KH — May 21, 2010 @ 10:58 am

  5. But Frye is not a part of lineups 2 and 3. By inserting Frye they are getting away from the lineups that get them the best +/-. And if Frye goes back in, Lakers just reinsert Odom. Don’t the Lakers have an answer no matter what Phoenix does?

    Comment by Felix — May 21, 2010 @ 2:16 pm

  6. Are you the same Wayne Winston who wrote the Operations Research textbook?

    Comment by pw — May 21, 2010 @ 7:01 pm

  7. yes

    Comment by wwinston — May 21, 2010 @ 7:04 pm

  8. wow. Good to know professor… I referred to your book a lot while did my PhD at Georgia Tech few years back. It’s really cool that you are using OR techniques in basketball. :) I love statistical analysis of BB and will definitely be a regular visitor at this site from now on. Thanks.

    Comment by pw — May 21, 2010 @ 7:12 pm

  9. Pretty much what I feared, the Suns just don’t have enough big men to stop the Lakeshow. Another reason I was fearful for the Mavs when we got rid of Drew Gooden, I knew if we did get to the Lakers that we would be a big man short against them. But they tanked against the Spurs…..

    Comment by Derek — May 22, 2010 @ 9:53 pm

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