May 2, 2010

Spurs Suns Preview

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:38 pm

I graded 500 spreadsheets since Thursday. I need a break so let’s look at the Suns Spurs series. This should be an exciting, long series. The Suns played better in the first round than any other team (15 points better than average) and the Spurs played 6 points better than average. All  numbers are per 48 minutes and adjusted for opponents strength.  Grant Hill got all the credit for the Suns because of his defense on Andre Miller, but the series key was that when Dudley  and Frye replaced Hill and Collins with Nash, Amare and JR the Suns were +35 points. The Spurs must be ready for this lineup.

  I believe a major reason the Spurs beat the Mavs was that Popovich stuck pretty closely to his better lineups, while Carlisle did not. Starting Dampier, Butler, Dirk, Kidd and Marion made no sense, because this lineup played poorly during the season and Butler plays poorly at the 2 guard (see our April 29th post).

   Here are the Spurs lineups that played the most (good ones boldfaced). 4A, for example, is +45 points in 95 minutes and has played 27 points better than average. 4A and 5A (Duncan, McDyess, Jefferson and Hill with Manu or Parker is the Spurs at their best.

In the Mavs series Jefferson, McDyess, Jefferson and two of Parker Manu and Hill played 17 points better than average. The rest of the time the Spurs played 2 points worse than average.

OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
SAS      12.42 (   16.09    4.57  -11.52   38.38    2.72    4.48)  296.92 minutes  118 appearances     1 A      7.44       46 $
Duncan        Ginobili      Hill          Jefferson     McDyess       30.92 years       4904_SAS_2010
SAS       2.05 (    3.90   -4.12   -8.02   -2.66    0.28    6.08)  124.03 minutes   28 appearances     3 A      0.00        0 $
Blair         Bogans        Duncan        Jefferson     Parker        28.23 years       8715_SAS_2010

SAS      12.16 (    6.46   -3.29   -9.75   14.05    1.03    6.27)  191.20 minutes   60 appearances     2 A     11.30       45 $
Bogans        Duncan        Jefferson     McDyess       Parker        31.16 years      12810_SAS_2010

 

SAS      27.40 (   11.75   -1.65  -13.40   30.06    2.03    4.67)   94.68 minutes   39 appearances     4 A     22.81       45 $
Duncan        Hill          Jefferson     McDyess       Parker        29.96 years      13064_SAS_2010

SAS      30.61 (   18.02    9.86   -8.16   51.32    3.29    3.95)   91.27 minutes   61 appearances     5 A     25.24       48 $
Duncan        Ginobili      Jefferson     McDyess       Parker        31.72 years      12840_SAS_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
SAS      16.02 (   18.90    9.43   -9.46   36.13    2.90    4.78)   77.76 minutes   49 appearances     1 B     14.81       24 $
Bonner        Duncan        Ginobili      Hill          Jefferson     29.81 years        812_SAS_2010

SAS     -13.80 (    8.34    3.23   -5.11   18.27    1.34    6.58)   77.63 minutes   30 appearances     2 B    -12.99      -21 $
Bogans        Duncan        Ginobili      Hill          McDyess       30.94 years       4394_SAS_2010

SAS      10.30 (   20.82   14.72   -6.11   49.06    3.47    4.23)   58.98 minutes   47 appearances     3 B     10.58       13 $
Bonner        Duncan        Ginobili      Jefferson     Parker        30.60 years       8748_SAS_2010

SAS      -1.75 (   11.76   12.74    0.98   27.09    1.95    4.67)   57.86 minutes   38 appearances     4 B     -3.32       -4 $
Duncan        Ginobili      Hill          Jefferson     Parker        29.38 years       9000_SAS_2010

SAS     -18.38 (    4.53   -8.58  -13.11    1.11    0.46    6.44)   54.21 minutes   26 appearances     5 B    -16.82      -19 $
Bogans        Duncan        Hill          Jefferson     McDyess       30.36 years       4874_SAS_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
SAS      21.02 (   15.56   10.15   -5.41   47.21    2.92    4.57)   51.27 minutes   36 appearances     1 C     14.98       16 $
Duncan        Ginobili      Hill          McDyess       Parker        30.54 years      12584_SAS_2010

SAS      -2.32 (   10.34    8.02   -2.33   27.84    1.83    6.33)   50.11 minutes   18 appearances     2 C      0.00        0 $
Bonner        Duncan        Finley        Jefferson     Parker        31.48 years       8732_SAS_2010

SAS       3.43 (    0.12    4.84    4.72   -8.46   -0.22    3.10)   49.59 minutes   36 appearances     3 C      9.68       10 $
Blair         Ginobili      Hill          Jefferson     Mason         27.12 years       2849_SAS_2010

SAS      18.47 (   22.22    5.23  -16.99   62.20    4.04    3.34)   47.50 minutes   11 appearances     4 C     16.17       16 $
Duncan        Ginobili      Jefferson     McDyess       Temple        30.92 years      70184_SAS_2010

SAS       5.20 (    3.92    2.25   -1.67   11.67    0.75    3.61)   47.23 minutes   33 appearances     5 C     11.18       11 $
Blair         Ginobili      Hill          Mason         McDyess       28.28 years       6433_SAS_2010

SAS      19.61 (   12.01    2.07   -9.94   38.11    2.30    5.41)   46.86 minutes   38 appearances     6 C     16.39       16 $
Duncan        Ginobili      Hill          Mason         McDyess       30.88 years       6440_SAS_2010

SAS      21.04 (   13.94    7.36   -6.58   51.04    2.88    5.07)   45.39 minutes   28 appearances     7 C     17.98       17 $
Duncan        Ginobili      Mason         McDyess       Parker        31.67 years      14376_SAS_2010

SAS      -4.84 (    8.20   -9.73  -17.93   20.95    1.42    5.38)   44.80 minutes   19 appearances     8 C     -5.36       -5 $
Duncan        Hill          Jefferson     Mason         McDyess       30.30 years       6920_SAS_2010

SAS      24.56 (   10.27    8.51   -1.76   31.21    1.91    6.35)   41.70 minutes   24 appearances     9 C     23.02       20 $
Bogans        Duncan        Ginobili      McDyess       Parker        31.74 years      12330_SAS_2010

For the Suns, the key (besides Nash offense) is that none of the bench players hurt the team. In fact Frye and Dudley are real upgrades over Collins and Hill. Here is a summary of the Suns lineups that played the most minutes: 3A and 1B (both with Dudley) are great. Lopez is probably out so I pick the Spurs in 6, partially because Parker has dominated the Parker Nash matchup in past years.

       ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
PHO      11.44 (   10.33   12.68    2.35   31.88    1.88    5.03)  884.62 minutes  348 appearances     1 A      8.30      153 $
Frye          Hill          Nash          Richardson    Stoudemire    31.17 years       7488_PHO_2010

PHO       4.54 (    7.04    9.89    2.85   16.36    1.11    4.77)  453.23 minutes  153 appearances     2 A      2.65       25 $
Hill          Lopez         Nash          Richardson    Stoudemire    30.19 years       7936_PHO_2010

PHO      22.20 (   17.85   18.51    0.66   33.33    2.62    2.78)  254.53 minutes  179 appearances     3 A     21.69      115 $
Dudley        Frye          Nash          Richardson    Stoudemire    28.61 years       7264_PHO_2010

PHO       6.34 (    2.92    0.19   -2.73   15.95    0.68    5.07)  202.24 minutes   61 appearances     4 A     -1.19       -5 $
Collins       Hill          Nash          Richardson    Stoudemire    32.06 years       7432_PHO_2010

PHO       3.25 (    3.64    3.16   -0.48    4.19    0.46    2.70)  166.98 minutes   95 appearances     5 A      8.91       31 $
Amundson      Barbosa       Dragic        Dudley        Frye          25.78 years        115_PHO_2010

PHO       7.92 (   -1.62   -5.38   -3.76  -12.44   -0.44    3.96)  131.12 minutes   78 appearances     6 A     11.71       32 $
Amundson      Dragic        Dudley        Frye          Hill          27.81 years        369_PHO_2010

PHO      -4.35 (    5.58    3.35   -2.22    3.49    0.66    2.65)   96.13 minutes   62 appearances     7 A     -5.99      -12 $
Amundson      Dragic        Dudley        Frye          Richardson    26.15 years       2161_PHO_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
PHO      22.92 (   14.56   15.71    1.15   17.81    1.85    2.77)   84.59 minutes   51 appearances     1 B     20.43       36 $
Dudley        Lopez         Nash          Richardson    Stoudemire    27.64 years       7712_PHO_2010

PHO      -0.79 (    0.33   -2.16   -2.48   -6.08   -0.16    1.61)   71.32 minutes   50 appearances     2 B      5.38        8 $
Amundson      Barbosa       Dragic        Dudley        Stoudemire    25.88 years       4147_PHO_2010

PHO      -5.94 (   10.66    9.78   -0.88   17.41    1.52    5.02)   69.25 minutes   50 appearances     3 B    -11.78      -17 $
Dudley        Frye          Hill          Nash          Stoudemire    30.27 years       5472_PHO_2010

PHO       1.74 (    8.45    3.93   -4.52   19.36    1.38    2.28)   67.32 minutes   59 appearances     4 B      2.14        3 $
Dragic        Dudley        Frye          Richardson    Stoudemire    26.17 years       6256_PHO_2010

PHO       2.21 (    4.14    6.79    2.65    5.74    0.54    4.91)   65.36 minutes   40 appearances     5 B     -3.67       -5 $
Amundson      Hill          Nash          Richardson    Stoudemire    31.25 years       7425_PHO_2010

PHO      -8.10 (    7.33    9.64    2.31   26.87    1.44    4.78)   58.80 minutes   42 appearances     6 B    -12.25      -15 $
Dudley        Hill          Nash          Richardson    Stoudemire    30.74 years       7456_PHO_2010

PHO       2.60 (    8.39   12.49    4.09   32.58    1.67    5.15)   57.62 minutes   32 appearances     7 B      2.50        3 $
Barbosa       Frye          Hill          Nash          Stoudemire    30.79 years       5442_PHO_2010

2 Comments »

  1. [...] Wayne Winston emailed this morning to say the Spurs should “be ready with a good lineup” whenever Jared Dudley is on the floor. The substance of his concerns is fleshed out in his Spurs-Suns preview. [...]

    Pingback by Is Jared Dudley a threat to the Spurs? | 48 Minutes of Hell — May 2, 2010 @ 11:35 pm

  2. [...] As always, the nerd breakdown of the series [...]

    Pingback by Spurs vs. Suns: Where the eclipse happens | Nerdstatus — May 3, 2010 @ 4:48 pm

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URL

Leave a comment

Powered by WordPress