April 30, 2010

Can the Celtics Pull the Upset?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:25 pm

There is no love lost between the Celtics and the Cavs. Can the Celtics pull the upset? I think that with careful lineup selection this series can go the distance. Here are some key points to help the Celtics select the lineups. All numbers are per 48 minutes and are adjusted for strength of opposition.

  • Ray Allen is by far their best player this season.  After adjusting for who he plays with and against we estimate he plays 11 points better than average. In resting Ray it is key to keep the other starters on the court. During these time period the Celtics play 8 points better than average, but the rest of the time Ray is out the Celts play 13 points worse than average.
  • Don’t sit Pierce and Ray Allen together. The Celtics are 14 points worse than average in this situation.Lineup 4A with Tony Allen in for Pierce plays 10 points better than average.
  • With Rondo out, Ray and Tony Allen in, Wallace and Davis in Celtics play 25 points better than average.
  • Finley is great with Ray (21 points better than average). Rest of time he is in Celtics are poor (12 points worse than average).
  • With KG and Rondo out the Celtics are great with Davis, Rasheed and Ray in: 22 points better than average.

 Here is a summary of key Celtic lineups, with good ones boldfaced. For example, lineup 1 has played 1265 minutes and plays 14 points better than average. Note the Celtics have played many mediocre lineups major minutes. 2A and 3A should not play. They have proved to have negative synergy: that is the lineup plays much worse than it should.

We close by noting the Spurs mainly used their good regular seaosn lineups and upset the Mavericks.

 BOS      14.50 (   11.34    4.35   -6.99   20.98    1.74    5.48) 1265.11 minutes  437 appearances     1 A     11.19      295 $
R. Allen      Garnett       Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         29.86 years       1810_BOS_2010

BOS       2.06 (   12.15    8.37   -3.78   28.91    2.05    5.29)  194.50 minutes   73 appearances     2 A     -2.22       -9 $
R. Allen      Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       30.19 years       9986_BOS_2010

BOS      -0.73 (   10.13    9.12   -1.01   19.38    1.57    5.68)  182.28 minutes  109 appearances     3 A     -4.21      -16 $
R. Allen      Garnett       Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       31.89 years       9746_BOS_2010

BOS       9.88 (    8.41    0.89   -7.52    7.85    1.05    5.83)  121.36 minutes   59 appearances     4 A     12.26       31 $
T. Allen      R. Allen      Garnett       Perkins       Rondo         29.01 years       1299_BOS_2010

BOS       4.82 (    8.90    1.16   -7.74   -2.03    0.86    5.75)  107.94 minutes   54 appearances     5 A      8.89       20 $
R. Allen      Daniels       Garnett       Perkins       Rondo         29.21 years       1302_BOS_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
BOS     -12.02 (  -14.76  -10.78    3.98  -32.56   -2.45    5.20)   86.35 minutes   44 appearances     1 B     -0.56       -1 $
Daniels       Davis         Wallace       Robinson      Finley        30.13 years     204812_BOS_2010

BOS       4.14 (    7.80    2.10   -5.70   13.48    1.15    6.46)   74.33 minutes   43 appearances     2 B      0.00        0 $
R. Allen      Davis         Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         27.93 years       1802_BOS_2010

BOS       6.97 (   -2.07   -6.57   -4.50  -22.06   -0.86    2.50)   66.66 minutes   32 appearances     4 B      5.76        8 $
T. Allen      Garnett       Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         28.56 years       1809_BOS_2010

BOS       1.42 (    0.63    2.04    1.41    2.26    0.25    8.99)   66.55 minutes   30 appearances     5 B      2.89        4 $
R. Allen      Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         Scalabrine    29.49 years       3842_BOS_2010

BOS     -25.24 (   -1.06   -5.63   -4.57  -10.77   -0.38    3.21)   57.09 minutes   38 appearances     6 B    -17.66      -21 $
Daniels       House         Pierce        Wallace       Williams      30.86 years      25156_BOS_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
BOS       4.79 (    4.16    3.68   -0.48  -11.13    0.11    6.74)   39.86 minutes   33 appearances     1 C      6.02        5 $
R. Allen      Daniels       Davis         Rondo         Wallace       29.31 years       9230_BOS_2010

BOS      -2.60 (    5.78    2.85   -2.93    3.95    0.67    6.71)   37.74 minutes   27 appearances     2 C     -3.82       -3 $
R. Allen      Davis         Garnett       Pierce        Rondo         29.63 years       1562_BOS_2010

BOS       0.87 (    6.59    6.87    0.28   11.88    0.98    6.60)   37.25 minutes   38 appearances     3 C     -1.29       -1 $
R. Allen      Davis         Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       29.96 years       9738_BOS_2010

BOS      11.65 (   -1.57   -6.30   -4.73  -31.94   -1.05    2.42)   34.31 minutes   31 appearances     4 C     11.19        8 $
Daniels       Garnett       Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         28.76 years       1812_BOS_2010

BOS       9.46 (   -6.81   -4.05    2.76  -31.16   -1.61    3.66)   33.68 minutes   27 appearances     5 C      9.98        7 $
T. Allen      Davis         Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       28.67 years       9737_BOS_2010

BOS      16.91 (    5.35   -0.76   -6.11   16.07    0.99    6.99)   31.83 minutes   25 appearances     6 C     18.09       12 $
T. Allen      R. Allen      Davis         House         Wallace       30.67 years       8267_BOS_2010

BOS      10.09 (   15.65   -0.38  -16.02   39.01    2.70    5.51)   30.69 minutes   19 appearances     7 C      6.26        4 $
R. Allen      Garnett       House         Perkins       Rondo         29.74 years       1362_BOS_2010

BOS       2.39 (   -2.77   -1.53    1.24  -33.54   -1.22    2.55)   30.28 minutes   27 appearances     8 C      0.00        0 $
Daniels       Garnett       Pierce        Rondo         Wallace       30.79 years       9748_BOS_2010

BOS      -5.29 (    7.20    5.66   -1.54    6.25    0.89    5.99)   29.54 minutes   23 appearances     9 C     -6.50       -4 $
T. Allen      R. Allen      Garnett       Rondo         Wallace       31.04 years       9235_BOS_2010

BOS      36.59 (    7.70    5.93   -1.77   -3.63    0.69    5.92)   28.90 minutes   26 appearances    10 C     38.20       23 $
R. Allen      Daniels       Garnett       Rondo         Wallace       31.24 years

2 Comments »

  1. New nickname for Rasheed Wallace: Negative Synergy.

    Comment by Go Celts — May 1, 2010 @ 1:42 pm

  2. I love it!

    Comment by wwinston — May 1, 2010 @ 2:03 pm

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