April 28, 2010

Can the Thunder Pull it Off?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 4:26 pm

Laker haters everywhere were disapointed by the Laker’s near perfect performance. As we have pointed out all series, the Thunder’s starting lineup does not get it done. The Thunder starting lineup was down 24 points. For the series as a whole when the starting lineup is on the court the Thunder play 9 points worse than average per 48 minutes.  The rest of the time KD is in the Thunder play 23 points better than average. Clearly much of KD’s greatness is being wasted.

The Thunder are doing a great job of resting KD with Collison, Maynor,Ibaka ,  Harden and Green 20 minutes up 4 points +4 rating.

Here is a summary of the series lineups: The Lakers have played 4 points better than average and the Thunder 5 points better than average. Note for example, the Thunder’s starting lineup #1 is down 33 points (24 points in game 5) in 77 minutes and plays 9 points worse than average.

Lineups 2, 6, and 16 are great for Thunder. For the Lakers lineups1 and  6 are great. If the Thunder can solve the Laker’s starting lineup, they have a shot in game 7 (if they get there). Otherwise this great run will come to an end.
                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Durant      Green       Krstic      Sefolosha   Westbrook     -8.73    76.89  LAL  OKC*    -20.60   -33        9292_OKC_2010
    2  Collison    Durant      Harden      Ibaka       Westbrook     34.35    22.41  LAL  OKC*     27.83    13        8246_OKC_2010
    3  Collison    Green       Harden      Ibaka       Maynor         4.36    20.68  LAL  OKC*      9.26     4      131130_OKC_2010
    4  Collison    Durant      Green       Ibaka       Westbrook     28.72    14.96  LAL  OKC*     16.06     5        8238_OKC_2010
    5  Collison    Durant      Harden      Ibaka       Maynor        19.29    13.02  LAL  OKC*     14.74     4      131126_OKC_2010
    6  Collison    Durant      Green       Sefolosha   Westbrook     53.87    12.36  LAL  OKC*     42.74    11        9230_OKC_2010
    7  Harden      Ibaka       Thomas      Weaver      Maynor         4.01    12.00  LAL  OKC*     16.00     4      137264_OKC_2010
    8  Collison    Durant      Green       Harden      Westbrook     -3.09     9.31  LAL  OKC*    -15.54    -3        8222_OKC_2010
    9  Durant      Green       Ibaka       Krstic      Westbrook     -0.54     9.13  LAL  OKC*    -15.73    -3        8300_OKC_2010
   10  Durant      Green       Harden      Ibaka       Westbrook      7.92     6.55  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0        8252_OKC_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Collison    Green       Harden      Ibaka       Westbrook    -30.57     5.06  LAL  OKC*    -28.43    -3        8250_OKC_2010
   12  Durant      Green       Krstic      Sefolosha   Maynor        15.55     4.87  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      132172_OKC_2010
   13  Green       Harden      Ibaka       Krstic      Maynor         1.60     4.45  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      131192_OKC_2010
   14  Durant      Green       Ibaka       Sefolosha   Westbrook     62.90     4.01  LAL  OKC*     47.94     4        9260_OKC_2010
   15  Green       Harden      Krstic      Sefolosha   Westbrook    -30.00     3.12  LAL  OKC*    -30.15    -2        9304_OKC_2010
   16  Durant      Green       Ibaka       Sefolosha   Maynor       117.12     3.12  LAL  OKC*    107.81     7      132140_OKC_2010
   17  Collison    Durant      Ibaka       Sefolosha   Maynor        -5.68     2.48  LAL  OKC*    -19.34    -1      132134_OKC_2010
   18  Collison    Durant      Green       Harden      Maynor       -11.53     2.45  LAL  OKC*    -19.59    -1      131102_OKC_2010
   19  Collison    Durant      Ibaka       Sefolosha   Westbrook     75.57     2.40  LAL  OKC*     60.00     3        9254_OKC_2010
   20  Mullens     Ollie       Sefolosha   Thomas      Maynor      -113.94     2.25  LAL  OKC*    -85.33    -4      134912_OKC_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Durant      Green       Harden      Sefolosha   Westbrook     -7.78     2.17  LAL  OKC*    -22.15    -1        9244_OKC_2010
   22  Harden      Mullens     Ollie       Thomas      Maynor       -28.61     1.98  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      133904_OKC_2010
   23  Durant      Green       Harden      Krstic      Westbrook    -63.60     1.33  LAL  OKC*    -72.00    -2        8284_OKC_2010
   24  Harden      Ibaka       Ollie       Thomas      Maynor      -145.41     1.22  LAL  OKC*   -118.36    -3      133680_OKC_2010
   25  Durant      Green       Harden      Westbrook   Maynor      -187.05     0.50  LAL  OKC*   -192.00    -2      139292_OKC_2010
   26  Collison    Durant      Green       Sefolosha   Maynor      -306.33     0.45  LAL  OKC*   -320.00    -3      132110_OKC_2010
   27  Green       Harden      Ibaka       Krstic      Westbrook   -104.20     0.42  LAL  OKC*   -115.20    -1        8312_OKC_2010
   28  Durant      Harden      Ibaka       Krstic      Maynor         3.91     0.28  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      131188_OKC_2010
   29  Durant      Green       Harden      Ibaka       Maynor      -997.91     0.10  LAL  OKC*   -993.10    -2      131132_OKC_2010
   30  Harden      Ibaka       Krstic      Westbrook   Maynor         3.91     0.01  LAL  OKC*      0.00     0      139376_OKC_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      5.11   240.00                -1.80    -9

end of file

 

LA LAKERS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol         18.51    92.87  OKC  LAL*     14.47    28         109_LAL_2010
    2  Artest      Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom          -4.05    37.61  OKC  LAL*    -11.49    -9         613_LAL_2010
    3  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Odom        Walton        -8.52    20.15  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0        4634_LAL_2010
    4  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Odom           1.33    10.42  OKC  LAL*     -4.65    -1         557_LAL_2010
    5  Artest      Brown       Bryant      Gasol       Odom          20.21     8.73  OKC  LAL*     11.01     2         583_LAL_2010
    6  Artest      Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom          66.85     8.02  OKC  LAL*     53.90     9         597_LAL_2010
    7  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Odom         -25.37     7.23  OKC  LAL*    -19.96    -3         542_LAL_2010
    8  Artest      Brown       Fisher      Gasol       Odom         -62.73     6.88  OKC  LAL*    -76.65   -11         611_LAL_2010
    9  Brown       Farmar      Morrison    Odom        Powell       -52.77     4.83  OKC  LAL*    -29.79    -3        1810_LAL_2010
   10  Brown       Farmar      Mbenga      Morrison    Powell        -8.12     4.23  OKC  LAL*     45.35     4        1426_LAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Brown       Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom         -15.69     3.92  OKC  LAL*    -36.76    -3         598_LAL_2010
   12  Artest      Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Powell       -26.80     3.44  OKC  LAL*    -27.72    -2        1125_LAL_2010
   13  Artest      Brown       Farmar      Gasol       Odom          -5.77     3.36  OKC  LAL*    -14.38    -1         595_LAL_2010
   14  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Fisher      Odom          -8.20     3.25  OKC  LAL*     14.77     1         570_LAL_2010
   15  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Odom         -29.95     2.92  OKC  LAL*    -49.37    -3         541_LAL_2010
   16  Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol       Walton        43.88     2.62  OKC  LAL*     55.03     3        4204_LAL_2010
   17  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Morrison    Powell       -62.16     2.45  OKC  LAL*    -39.18    -2        1306_LAL_2010
   18  Artest      Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       Odom           4.57     2.28  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0         625_LAL_2010
   19  Artest      Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Odom         -80.46     2.05  OKC  LAL*    -93.66    -4         539_LAL_2010
   20  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Gasol         15.60     1.78  OKC  LAL*     26.92     1          94_LAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Gasol         78.80     1.62  OKC  LAL*     59.38     2          93_LAL_2010
   22  Brown       Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Walton       -47.91     1.50  OKC  LAL*    -64.00    -2        4690_LAL_2010
   23  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Morrison    Odom         -22.97     1.47  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0         794_LAL_2010
   24  Brown       Farmar      Mbenga      Powell      Walton        94.96     1.22  OKC  LAL*    118.36     3        5266_LAL_2010
   25  Artest      Brown       Bynum       Fisher      Odom         159.47     1.17  OKC  LAL*    164.57     4         555_LAL_2010
   26  Brown       Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Powell       -86.97     1.02  OKC  LAL*    -94.43    -2        1126_LAL_2010
   27  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol        -73.97     0.80  OKC  LAL*    -58.47    -1         110_LAL_2010
   28  Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Fisher      Odom        -185.10     0.53  OKC  LAL*   -180.00    -2         572_LAL_2010
   29  Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Walton       204.56     0.50  OKC  LAL*    192.00     2        4692_LAL_2010
   30  Artest      Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       Powell       -99.60     0.45  OKC  LAL*   -105.88    -1        1137_LAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   31  Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom        Walton       131.49     0.38  OKC  LAL*    125.22     1        4708_LAL_2010
   32  Artest      Bryant      Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       -240.83     0.19  OKC  LAL*   -254.87    -1         117_LAL_2010
   33  Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       Morrison    Powell         6.28     0.07  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0        1392_LAL_2010
   34  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Fisher        14.04     0.03  OKC  LAL*      0.00     0          61_LAL_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      3.78   240.00                 1.80     9

3 Comments »

  1. How can the Thunder linup #16 get such a high rating when it has only been played in 1 game and for only 3 minutes. Is your rating simply based on points per minute?

    Also, do you have any stats that show which lineup for the thunder is the best against the lakers starting 5? What lineups for the thunder have actually played against the starting 5 for the lakers? You can’t just say this lineup has a better rating so it will play better against the lakers starting 5. The reason the Thunders starting lineup is so low is because of the lakers starting 5 plus coming out and not being able to hit shots early. Through 4 games the Thunders starting five only had a -9 plus/minus. Last night changed that greatly.

    Comment by Cory — April 28, 2010 @ 10:45 pm

  2. Ratings are per minute. 3 minutes means little. Against Lakers starters Collison KD and Westbrook combined with 2 of Sef, Ibaka, Green and Harden is +14 points in 13 minutes, limited data but it sure looks this would do better than the starters. Wasting time with KD on court seems like the wrong strategy. All season thstarting lineup has not performed well.

    Comment by wwinston — April 28, 2010 @ 11:31 pm

  3. Thanks for the response. The one thing I do see against this is that with Collison and Ibaka coming off the bench, it brings great energy and strengthens the bench. The question is, is the trade off worth it? The other factor in this series that makes the stats difficult is that the Thunder keep coming out so cold and digging themselves a hole. That is making Krstic’s stats even worse than they normally would be. It is nice in a seven game series though that you get so much data against the same team in meaningful games, but in this series we have ended up with some anomolies that have to be factored in such as the poor shooting starts and the two fourth quarters and even third quarters that were played with the game out of hand.

    Comment by Cory — April 29, 2010 @ 9:18 am

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URL

Leave a comment

Powered by WordPress