April 22, 2010

Spurs vs. Mavs: Behind the Numbers

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:51 am

In 2000 famed USA Today ratings guru Jeff Sagarin and I developed the concept of Adjusted +/- to help us evaluate NBA players and lineup combinations.  Throughout the playoffs we will use the lens of Adjusted +/- to reveal what’s really going on in the exciting playoffs.

Basically Adjusted +/- looks at how the score changes during every minute of the season and after adjusting for who a player plays with and against and who a lineup plays against we come up with a “rating” per 48 minutes. Here is a brief explanation of what the ratings mean:

1.     A point rating of +10 means we estimate a player to be 10 points (all numbers per 48 minutes) than an average player.

2.     An Offense rating of +10 means we estimate a player causes his team to score 10 points more than an average player.

3.     A Defense rating of -10 means we estimate a player causes  his team to give up 10 fewer points than an average player.

4.     A lineup rating of+10 means we estimate a lineup is 10 points better than an average NBA lineup.

Now let’s get to the fun part: Analyzing the Spurs-Mavs series!

 The Mavs problem is simple: When Dampier and Dirk are in, the Mavs play 6 points worse than average. When Haywood is in with Dirk,the Mavs play 21 points better than average.

In this series the Spurs have played 13 points better than average  series and the Mavs 7 points better than average. When Manu, Duncan, McDyess, and Jefferson are on the court with Hill or Parker the Spurs are +25 points in 38 minutes (playing 40 points better than average). This combo was also great in the regular season, so we see history repeating itself.

 

   The Spurs had problems with Bogans in (-12 points in 16 minutes) and Blair in for Duncan (excluding Bogans in with Blair -9 points in 16 minutes). In game 2 Bogans did not play so that issue was resolved. Spurs still need to do better with Duncan out. In regular season  Blair, Manu,Hill Mason and McDyess was ok (5 points better than average) so it might be worth a shot. In regular season Blair Manu Hill Jefferson and Bonner was great (35 points better than average) but this lineup has stumbled so far. I would try Blair Manu Parker Jefferson Bonner . This has been hardly used  (24 minutes in regular season, 3 points better than average), but it is worth a shot.

 

Here is a lineup summary: To read this, for example, Spurs lineup 1 has played 33 points better than average and has played 25 minutes and is +11 points. The other numbers are not really important. Note Spurs lineups 1 and 2 have dominated! Lineup 3 is solid with Bonner in for McDyess.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Duncan      Ginobili    Jefferson   McDyess     Parker        33.30    20.95  DAL  SAS*     25.20    11       12840_SAS_2010
    2  Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        Jefferson   McDyess       47.61    16.62  DAL  SAS*     40.44    14        4904_SAS_2010
    3  Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Jefferson   Parker        34.38     8.57  DAL  SAS*     22.43     4        8748_SAS_2010
    4  Duncan      Hill        Jefferson   McDyess     Parker        37.93     5.55  DAL  SAS*     25.95     3       13064_SAS_2010
    5  Blair       Bonner      Ginobili    Hill        Parker         1.41     5.46  DAL  SAS*     -8.77    -1        8485_SAS_2010
    6  Bogans      Duncan      Jefferson   Mason       Parker        -5.16     3.30  DAL  SAS*    -14.52    -1       10762_SAS_2010
    7  Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        Parker       -20.01     2.82  DAL  SAS*    -34.08    -2        8492_SAS_2010
    8  Blair       Bonner      Jefferson   Mason       Parker       -18.22     2.80  DAL  SAS*    -34.29    -2       10757_SAS_2010
    9  Bonner      Duncan      Hill        Jefferson   Parker        14.68     2.80  DAL  SAS*     17.18     1        8972_SAS_2010
   10  Bogans      Bonner      Duncan      Hill        Parker        -2.88     2.72  DAL  SAS*    -17.67    -1        8462_SAS_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        Jefferson     26.35     2.68  DAL  SAS*     17.89     1         812_SAS_2010
   12  Bogans      Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        McDyess     -115.79     2.37  DAL  SAS*   -121.69    -6        4394_SAS_2010
   13  Bogans      Duncan      Ginobili    McDyess     Parker         5.90     2.33  DAL  SAS*      0.00     0       12330_SAS_2010
   14  Blair       Bonner      Ginobili    Hill        Jefferson    -98.09     2.33  DAL  SAS*   -102.86    -5         805_SAS_2010
   15  Blair       Bonner      Hill        Mason       Parker        -7.93     2.00  DAL  SAS*    -24.00    -1       10501_SAS_2010
   16  Blair       Bogans      Ginobili    Jefferson   Mason       -124.01     2.00  DAL  SAS*   -120.00    -5        2595_SAS_2010
   17  Duncan      Ginobili    Mason       McDyess     Parker        87.60     1.82  DAL  SAS*     79.27     3       14376_SAS_2010
   18  Bogans      Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Mason        108.93     1.70  DAL  SAS*    112.94     4        2094_SAS_2010
   19  Blair       Bonner      Hill        Jefferson   Parker        64.45     1.58  DAL  SAS*     60.63     2        8965_SAS_2010
   20  Blair       Ginobili    Jefferson   McDyess     Parker      -148.36     1.22  DAL  SAS*   -157.81    -4       12833_SAS_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Bonner      Hill        Jefferson   McDyess     Parker      -148.18     1.18  DAL  SAS*   -162.25    -4       13060_SAS_2010
   22  Blair       Bonner      Jefferson   Mason       Temple        98.47     0.92  DAL  SAS*    104.73     2       68101_SAS_2010
   23  Bogans      Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Parker        19.64     0.73  DAL  SAS*      0.00     0        8238_SAS_2010
   24  Bogans      Bonner      Duncan      Jefferson   Parker      -227.22     0.58  DAL  SAS*   -246.86    -3        8718_SAS_2010
   25  Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        McDyess     Parker      -180.36     0.50  DAL  SAS*   -192.00    -2       12584_SAS_2010
   26  Blair       Bogans      Ginobili    Mason       Parker         0.51     0.46  DAL  SAS*      0.00     0       10275_SAS_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES     12.52    96.00                 4.00     8

end of file

 

DALLAS MAVERICKS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Dampier     Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Butler        -8.01    19.90  SAS  DAL*    -21.71    -9       66440_DAL_2010
    2  Kidd        Nowitzki    Terry       Butler      Haywood        0.47    18.15  SAS  DAL*    -13.20    -5      201344_DAL_2010
    3  Dampier     Kidd        Nowitzki    Terry       Butler         4.16    13.78  SAS  DAL*    -10.45    -3       70280_DAL_2010
    4  Dampier     Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry          8.62     8.50  SAS  DAL*     -0.01     0        5000_DAL_2010
    5  Barea       Marion      Nowitzki    Terry       Haywood        7.24     7.62  SAS  DAL*     -0.02     0      135937_DAL_2010
    6  Barea       Kidd        Marion      Butler      Haywood       -3.94     5.73  SAS  DAL*     -8.37    -1      196993_DAL_2010
    7  Barea       Nowitzki    Terry       Butler      Haywood       49.43     3.88  SAS  DAL*     37.08     3      201217_DAL_2010
    8  Kidd        Marion      Terry       Butler      Haywood       84.05     3.64  SAS  DAL*     79.12     6      201088_DAL_2010
    9  Dampier     Kidd        Marion      Najera      Butler        -1.52     2.85  SAS  DAL*    -16.84    -1       98696_DAL_2010
   10  Barea       Kidd        Marion      Terry       Haywood      110.31     2.33  SAS  DAL*    102.86     5      135553_DAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Dampier     Kidd        Terry       Najera      Butler        -8.65     2.12  SAS  DAL*    -22.68    -1      102536_DAL_2010
   12  Barea       Dampier     Kidd        Nowitzki    Butler        64.57     2.03  SAS  DAL*     70.82     3       66185_DAL_2010
   13  Barea       Dampier     Nowitzki    Terry       Butler      -165.04     1.85  SAS  DAL*   -181.62    -7       70153_DAL_2010
   14  Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Butler      Haywood      243.49     1.05  SAS  DAL*    228.57     5      197504_DAL_2010
   15  Barea       Terry       Najera      Butler      Haywood      -99.39     0.92  SAS  DAL*   -104.73    -2      233473_DAL_2010
   16  Barea       Dampier     Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    -197.27     0.50  SAS  DAL*   -192.00    -2         905_DAL_2010
   17  Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry       Butler       135.01     0.42  SAS  DAL*    115.20     1       70528_DAL_2010
   18  Kidd        Nowitzki    Terry       Najera      Butler         7.69     0.33  SAS  DAL*      0.00     0      103040_DAL_2010
   19  Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry       Haywood      376.57     0.27  SAS  DAL*    360.00     2      136064_DAL_2010
   20  Kidd        Marion      Terry       Haywood     Stevenson   -770.92     0.12  SAS  DAL*   -778.38    -2      397696_DAL_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      7.34    96.00                -4.00    -8

Adjusted +/- Highlights through Two Games

For Spurs Duncan has a +19 rating (-21 on defense).  McDyess

has -19 defense rating. Parker has played poorly on defense (+11 rating). Bogans  killed the offense: -40 offense rating.

For the Mavs Dampier has killed offense (-20 rating) and Haywood has had a +17 rating.

Again Adjusted +/- for two games has some degree of error but to paraphrase Bob Dylan it “tells us which way the wind is blowing.”

3 Comments »

  1. [...] at Mathletics, our friend Wayne Winston has provided a delectable buffet of Mavs-Spurs Game 2 adjusted plus minus observations. Hurry on over, and take note: In this series the Spurs have played 13 points better [...]

    Pingback by Is Tiago Splitter the San Antonio Spurs' big fix? | 48 Minutes of Hell — April 22, 2010 @ 2:21 pm

  2. Hi wayne. which team do you think will win this series and how have the mavericks to adjust to play better?
    Do you numbers say that Marion and Butler are weak, because in my opinion they really struggled. Is Roddy maybe the solution?

    P.S. Interesting blog you habe. Thumbs up!

    Comment by david — April 24, 2010 @ 7:47 am

  3. Haywood should play more.

    Comment by wwinston — April 24, 2010 @ 8:28 am

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