April 15, 2010

Do the Blazers have a Chance to Set the Suns?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:12 pm

The Blazers have had so many injuries but they have hung in there and earned the 6th seed in the tough Western Conference. Without Roy do they have a chance to beat the red hot Suns? It will be tough but let’s break down what we know about how the Blazers have played without Roy.

     Since the Camby trade the Blazers have played 420 minutes without Roy and have played 4 points (per 48 minutes) worse than average. If you eliminate minutes where Pendergraph played, the Blazers played 5 points better than average. All numbers below represent level of play per 48 minutes (adjusted for strength of opponents.)

  •    When Miller, Aldridge, and Rudy are on the court the Blazers are great (122 minutes +27 points better than average). Even more amazing when Batum joins these 3 the Blazers play 41 points better than average.
  • With Miller on the court in 172 minutes the Blazers are fine (17 points better than average). The problem is when Miller is out the Blazers play 18 points worse than average.
  • So the Blazers really need to experiment with what works with Miller out. So far the limited data we have indicates that in 15 minutes Rudy, Aldridge, Bayless and Batum with Howard or Camby has been good (+22 level).

We will keep a close eye on this series and as the games progress we will give you more info on what works for the Blazers!

Blazers in the 4th Quarter

The Blazers bigs (Aldridge, Howard, Camby and Pendergraph) all have played poorly in the 4th quarter. Aldridge’s Adjusted +/- for 4th quarter of -9 is the lesser of four evils. Webster (+5), Miller (+7) and  Bayless (+5) have played well in the 4th quarter.

Player Ratings

Here are Adjusted +/- Point ratings for key Blazers

Miller +14,  Webster +8, Aldridge -6, Howard -16 (he kills offense with -24 rating),  Bayless +6, Batum +3, Camby +2, Rudy +1, Cunningham -4,  Pendergraph -19. From this info it looks like maybe best bet is to play Camby when Amare is in and go small rest of the time.

Suns and Blazers Head to Head

Due to trades and injuries not much t o go on  but

Blake, Aldridge, Miller Webster and Howard was +14 points in 13 minutes against Suns. Maybe putting Rudy in for Blake here will work?

1 Comment »

  1. Well the Blazers won the first game, so I think that the 2-1 series advantage they hold wasn’t just Roy after all. I think the style that the Suns play is just not conducive for the playoffs. running and gunning is so hard to do to a team you have to beat 4 out of 7 because a lot of it is purely surprise. It becomes harder and harder to surprise the same guys night in and night out with flashy passes and the like.

    Comment by Derek — April 19, 2010 @ 4:05 pm

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