April 15, 2010

The Jazz Can be Better

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:43 pm

The Jazz have played 5 points better than average for the season. Injuries to Boozer and AK47, however, caused the Jazz to lose home court and face the tough Denver Nuggets. Hopefully, AK47 and Boozer will be ok for the Denver series.  We believe the Jazz can be a much better team if they understand which lineups work and which don’t.

Let’s start with a breakdown of the most frequently played frontcourts. We will assume Williams is in because he is the key to this team (one of the league’s two best point guards this year, along with Andre Miller). All references to level mean how well (per 48 minutes) the combo plays after adjusting for strength of opponents.

Frontcourt Combos

  1. Boozer Millsap AK47 331 minutes +15 level
  2. Boozer Millsap Miles 245 min +9 level
  3. Boozer AK47 Okur 505 +1 level. This trio is overutilized and should play less.
  4. Boozer Miles Okur 370 min +5 level
  5. Millsap AK47 Okur 158 min +23 level. Play them more!!!!!
  6. Millsap Miles Okur 125 min +12 level.
  7. AK47 Fesenko Millsap 29 minutes, +29 rating Fesenko should play more.
  8. Fesenko, Boozer, with Miles or 3 guards 121 minutes +25 rating.

I think this shows the Jazz could play much better.

Backcourt

With Williams in most combos work well.  Interestingly Williams as the only guard has done well (+21 rating in 108 minutes).  The three guard combo of Williams Korver and Mathews has done well (+11 rating in 213 minutes). With Williams out the Jazz do ok with Matthews and AK47 in ( +5 level in 183 minutes). Lineups 5C and 6C below rest Williams well.

Jazz in the 4th Quarter

AK47, Williams and Korver are outstanding in the 4th quarter.

Jazz and Nuggets Head to Head

After adjusting for strength of players faced, the Jazz played at an only average level against Nuggets.. Most of their poor play was due to Okur’s problems. With Okur in against Nuggets , Jazz played 11 points per game worse than average in 113 minutes and were down 38 points. With Okur out in 79 minutes the Jazz were +22 points and played 16 points bettert han average. Playing the non Okur frontcourts more should help.

Also Fesenko and Korver did well in their limited time against Denver.

 Regular Season Lineups

Here is how the Jazz most frequently used lineups played per 48 minutes during the regular season. I would more use of boldfaced lineups. 5C and 6C have played well without Williams.

    For example, lineup 3A played 11 points better than average (after adjusting for strength of opponents) in 205 minutes.
UTA      11.49 (    5.95    8.01    2.06   23.57    1.17    6.01)  204.68 minutes   61 appearances     3 A      9.15       39 $
Boozer        Matthews      Miles         Okur          Williams      26.05 years      10881_UTA_2010

UTA       6.08 (    8.28   10.43    2.15   16.69    1.24    5.64)  148.01 minutes   88 appearances     4 A      2.27        7 $
Boozer        Matthews      Miles         Millsap       Williams      24.90 years       9857_UTA_2010

UTA     -18.23 (    7.92    5.03   -2.89   17.63    1.24    6.21)  141.75 minutes   44 appearances     5 A    -19.30      -57 $
Boozer        Kirilenko     Matthews      Okur          Williams      27.26 years      10385_UTA_2010

UTA      14.20 (   10.25    7.45   -2.79   10.75    1.30    5.82)  109.59 minutes   68 appearances     8 A     14.45       33 $
Boozer        Kirilenko     Matthews      Millsap       Williams      26.12 years       9361_UTA_2010

UTA       9.66 (   12.05   11.27   -0.77    7.42    1.35    6.09)  109.47 minutes   69 appearances     9 A     11.84       27 $
Boozer        Korver        Matthews      Millsap       Williams      26.10 years       9377_UTA_2010

UTA      -3.46 (    2.44   -3.43   -5.87    4.30    0.33    4.27)   82.99 minutes   49 appearances    11 A      4.63        8 $
Korver        Miles         Millsap       Okur          Price         26.72 years       7712_UTA_2010

 

UTA      14.32 (   16.43   11.35   -5.08   19.00    2.13    6.07)   60.58 minutes   37 appearances     2 B     11.89       15 $
Boozer        Kirilenko     Korver        Millsap       Williams      27.23 years       9265_UTA_2010

UTA      16.28 (   15.60   10.93   -4.67   32.98    2.41    5.66)   54.29 minutes   30 appearances     4 B     18.57       21 $
Korver        Miles         Millsap       Okur          Williams      26.52 years      11808_UTA_2010

UTA      20.30 (   14.46   14.33   -0.13   24.94    2.07    6.00)   52.29 minutes   35 appearances     5 B     16.52       18 $
Boozer        Korver        Miles         Millsap       Williams      26.02 years       9761_UTA_2010

      UTA      29.56 (   11.38    4.05   -7.33   18.79    1.65    5.51)   42.04 minutes   31 appearances     2 C     33.11       29 $
Kirilenko     Matthews      Millsap       Okur          Williams      26.62 years      11408_UTA_2010

UTA       2.88 (    9.42    7.03   -2.38   24.73    1.59    5.34)   38.54 minutes   25 appearances     3 C      2.49        2 $
Matthews      Miles         Millsap       Okur          Williams      25.40 years      11904_UTA_2010

UTA      28.14 (   -4.88   -3.92    0.96  -11.98   -0.84    2.90)   35.93 minutes   22 appearances     5 C     32.07       24 $
Boozer        Matthews      Miles         Millsap       Price         25.11 years       5761_UTA_2010

UTA       8.32 (   -1.78  -10.30   -8.53   -9.88   -0.43    3.32)   35.55 minutes   19 appearances     6 C      9.45        7 $
Kirilenko     Matthews      Millsap       Okur          Price         26.82 years       7312_UTA_2010

UTA      25.64 (   14.10    8.92   -5.18   25.88    2.06    6.56)   33.99 minutes   20 appearances     7 C     26.83       19 $
Boozer        Kirilenko     Korver        Okur          Williams      28.38 years      10289_UTA_2010

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