April 15, 2010

How the Bulls can Compete with the Cavs

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:25 am

For the season the Cavs are 6 points better than an average NBA team and the Bulls are 2 points worse. Can the Bulls compete with the Cavs? It will be hard, but the Bulls can certainly play much better if they carefully select their lineups. All data below excludes minutes where Salmons or Thomas (both traded) were on the court. All data is adjusted for strength of opponent faced and is per 48 minutes.

  • The frontcourt of Miller, Deng and  Gibson is great. They play 10 points better than average. The frontcourt of Noah, Deng and Gibson plays more often but is only 2 points better than average.
  • Deng, Miller and Hinrich on the court makes the Bulls good: 7 points better than average. Rest of time Bulls are 7 points worse than average.
  • When Murray is at the point (Rose and Hinrich out) the Bulls play poorly: 23 points worse than average.
  • With Rose out the Hinrich Pargo backcourt is good: 132 minutes Bulls play 4 points better than average. Rest of time Rose is out the Bulls play 14 points worse than average.
  • When Deng is out Gibson, Hinrich and Miler in is ok (plays at average). But rest of time Deng is out the Bulls play 14 points worse than average. Lineup 3B below (Gibson        Hinrich       Johnson       Miller        Pargo  )        does a great job of resting Deng , Noah and Rose!
  • With Hinrich out Rose Gibson and Deng in keeps the Bulls afloat (3 points better than average). Rest of time Hinrich is out the Bulls  play 11 points worse than average.
  • The Bulls are not a good 4th quarter team. Deng (+7 Adjusted +/-) and Pargo (+5 Adjusted +/-) are good in 4th but Noah (-11 Adjusted +/-) has been a poor 4th quarter performer.
  • Warrick plays ok with Noah (-3 level) but when Noah is out and Warrick in the Bulls play very poorly (14 points worse than average)

Bulls and Cavs head to head

In the minutes where Salmons and Thomas were not playing the Bulls played 7 points worse than average against the Cavs (remember LeBron missed the last game). But things are not that bad. When Warrick or  Murray was in the Bulls played 26 points worse than average against Cavs but rest of time Bulls played 8 points better than average.

Here are the Bulls best lineups based on the regular season: Note 3A just swaps Miller in for Noah (copared to 1A) and is much better.  CHI       2.34 (    1.16   -1.46   -2.62   -0.55    0.12    5.50)  451.69 minutes  171 appearances     1 A      0.64        6 $
Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Noah          Rose          24.86 years       2582_CHI_2010

CHI      11.72 (    7.12    2.58   -4.54   11.49    1.03    3.95)  290.77 minutes  125 appearances     3 A      9.57       58 $
Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Miller        Rose          26.64 years       2326_CHI_2010

CHI       4.25 (    0.66    0.94    0.28    8.92    0.33    5.52)   88.63 minutes   58 appearances     6 A      2.17        4 $
Deng          Hinrich       Miller        Noah          Rose          26.70 years       2834_CHI_2010

CHI      11.24 (   -8.05   -8.63   -0.57  -21.94   -1.43    2.32)   59.55 minutes   22 appearances     3 B      2.42        3 $
Gibson        Hinrich       Johnson       Miller        Pargo         28.06 years       1428_CHI_2010


  1. Play those four best lineups, a Rose Gibson and Deng lineup with Hinrich to get him some rest and maybe 1-4 other lineups for additional selective rest for the guys or for match-up considerations. I don’t think you need to go much further than that with regard to lineup variation, given the way this team has performed.

    Comment by Crow — April 16, 2010 @ 10:33 pm

  2. err,

    make that a Rose Gibson and Deng lineup “without” Hinrich…

    (that was the point)

    Comment by Crow — April 16, 2010 @ 10:34 pm

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